19'9"

Day Two Recap

2011-03-18T10:53:00.003-07:00

Texas 85, Oakland 81

I'm personally pretty disappointed at this result because I thought Oakland was a real sleeper, and sleepers making deep runs are what March is all about. Part of the reason why I liked them was all their experience playing power conference teams, and I wonder if that didn't hurt them a little bit. The Big Dance is never "just another game," but when you're a small school (like Morehead State) playing a powerhouse for the first time, the game takes on another level of urgency. I thought Oakland didn't match Texas in energy and intensity for most of the game, and the Grizzlies didn't value possessions in the first half. Maybe, just maybe, they didn't appreciate and respect the task at hand enough. That's not to say that playing a tough non-conference schedule is a bad idea for this reason; that would be an absurd conclusion. Just pointing out an interesting possible side effect ... Endgame aside, Texas looked awfully good offensively, though Oakland's defense was certainly complacent in that. They're very dangerous, and expect a high-scoring affair in the second round with Arizona. Both of those teams have the firepower to take out Duke in the Sweet 16 ... Oakland's Keith Benson is allegedly an NBA prospect. I've got mixed feelings. On the one hand, he's got some nice ball skills and he's got a Tyler Hansbrough-like release point around the rim, which is helpful for players who don't rely on strength and power. On the other hand, he's not terribly strong or powerful, which becomes more of a problem when you consider that he doesn't run the floor well. He was thoroughly outplayed by Texas freshman Tristan Thompson, and while there's no shame in that, it suggests to me that his odds of making an impact at the next level are long.

Michigan 75, Tennessee 45

Wow. Only caught a few minutes of this one, when the Wolverines made their big push at the end of the first half. Did it with defense and three-point shooting, which you expect from a John Beilein-coached team. I switched back to Oakland-Texas after and by the time I got back to it, Michigan was way in front and it wasn't worth watching. By all accounts, the Vols just gave up in the second half ... I think I heard that Michigan scored something like 58 of the game's 80 points. They also won by 30 without hitting a single free throw ... If this is the end for Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl, and I think it probably will be, it's a fitting final stain on his tarnished legacy at the school. I don't want to be mean-spirited, but it sure seems like he deserves what he's got coming to him. Cheating is one thing; it probably happens all over the country. Lying to the NCAA -- and then acting like you've taken responsibility for your actions by owning up to it afterwards -- is something else altogether. I also haven't liked the way Pearl has more or less insisted that this whole process, including all the attention as well as the eight-game SEC suspension he served, hasn't affected his team. That sort of scrutiny and uncertainty definitely did affect the kids, and by not acknowledging it, Pearl passes the responsibility to them from himself.

Notre Dame 69, Akron 56

If you're a Notre Dame fan, I don't think there's much reason to be concerned by the relatively small final margin and the fact that the Zips hung around through a good chunk of the second half. The Irish don't strike me as a club that is going to blow teams out unless shots fall, and while Mike Brey's team did shoot pretty well from three-point land, they didn't shoot very well from inside the arc. That could easily correct itself by the next game. Myself, I came in to this tornament skeptical of the Irish, and so I remain skeptical, but if you're optimistic about their chances, then nothing that happened Friday should change that.

George Mason 61, Villanova 57

Two problems with the officiating at the end here, both stemming from Wayns' miss down to with under ten seconds left. First, you have to call something there. I think it was a charge, but even if it was a block, there was way too much contact to let go. Jay Bilas makes this point all the time, but it's a good one and is worth repeating: If you protect shooters and legal defenders by calling fouls when they occur, you are letting the players decide the game. There are situations where you might let a little more contact go in the final seconds, but an offensive player running full bore into a defensive player is not one of them. Second, stop going to the monitor so much at the end of games to add a few tenths of a second. This time, it gave Villanova an extra timeout, a timeout it didn't have. I know you want to get it right, but if you allow for a half-second of reaction time between the whistle and the clock stopping on a tieup call in the first half, then you should allow for it in the final seconds, too ... It's fitting that Villanova would end a season in which it threw away a 16-1 start by throwing away a late lead ... Someone mentioned, either on the broadcast or on Twitter, that the two Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, were both playing well for the first time in a while. That's true, but even so, the Wildcats weren't playing that well as a group. They just kind of lost it this year, which happens to college teams sometimes ... Villanova had opportunities to win if it had made free throws and limited turnovers down the stretch. Jay Wright can't be happy that some of those key mistakes were made by his veteran leaders (Fisher and Stokes and Antonio Pena) ... George Mason got away with it, but after they came back to tie the score, they continued with their fullcourt press. I always think that's a mistake because your team is likely to be hyped up, and more likely to commit a foul or over-commit and give up an easy bucket, but it's particularly dangerous when the other team has as many good shooters as Villanova has. It didn't burn them, however, and once they went ahead by two, they switched to token pressure, which I did like.

Arizona 77, Memphis 75

I give young Memphis head coach a ton of credit for this one. I didn't think his athletic but wild team had much of a chance to beat Arizona, but they nearly did, and a lot of the reason why was Pastner's switching defensive looks. Memphis' 2-3 zone swarmed Derrick Williams, and Arizona did a really poor job of going inside-out to find good shots from the perimeter ... Coaches who are nervous about fouling up three with under ten seconds left nearly had fuel for their argument, as 'zona's Sean Miller did it, then saw his team cough up an offensive rebound on the free throw. But Williams swatted the putback, the second time this year he's preserved a win with a blocked shot in the final seconds (he did it against Washington in the regular season) ... Arizona now faces Texas in the second round. NBA types are salivating at a Williams-Thompson matchup, while college fans can look forward to an uptempo game without a lot of defense.

Duke 87, Hampton 45

Didn't watch any of the defending champs, and only wanted to for the return of Kyrie Irving, the freshman point guard who's been out forever with a toe injury. Early reviews are good. The Blue Devils are clearly a better team with Irving in the lineup, but I do wonder how well they'll adjust to a new body in the rotation. Nolan Smith had a hell of a year moving to the lead guard role after Irving's injury, and it may be tough to make another adjustment this late in the season. With that said, Irving is exactly what the Devils need to penetrate Michigan's zone defenses to create open looks for his teammate, and antidote to what I consider Duke's Kryptonite: a cold shooting evening. With Irving in the lineup, Duke should get better shots.

Florida State 57, Texas A&M 50

Man, these Seminoles really can defend! What really impressed me about their effort today is that they were about as good on that end of the court without Chris Singleton as they were with him. Singleton, whose minutes were limited in his first game back after breaking his foot, is the most versatile defensive player I've ever seen at this level. FSU forced aTm to take the shots that FSU wanted aTm to take, and they contest everything, even drives, without fouling ... It's going to be interesting to see how Notre Dame's patient, jumpshooting offense does against this Florida State D. FSU is pretty good at taking away your first option or two, and so I could see the Irish ending up with a lot of very tough shots at the end of the clock if they don't speed it up at least a little bit. Which, I should point out, is something they are capable of, which wasn't true last year ... Florida State probably will need to find just a bit more offense to beat ND, though. Singleton isn't an elite offensive player, but he probably was Florida State's best option. Derwin Kitchen stepped up in the second half today, and Michael Snaer is another important guy off the dribble. FSU has some shooters who have struggled this season; it wouldn't hurt if they started knocking down some shots.

Ohio State 75, Texas-San Antonio 46

Just an easy first-round victory for your 2011 national champions....

Kansas 72, Boston 53

The first of two really boring mismatches in the early set of evening games. The Terriers kept it interesting in the first half, but were outclassed in the second. With Kansas, it seems like it's often an effort/concentration thing.

Purdue 65, St. Peter's 43

The second of two really boring mismatches in the early set of evening games. I want to use this space to pay homage to the hero of the 1995 MAAC champion Peacocks, one Mike Frensley. Why will I always remember his name? Two reasons: 1) He didn't wear socks when he played, and 2) He wore a Nirvana t-shirt to a post-game press conference. What's he up to now? Apparently he's a musician, which means he still has a Myspace page. I'm not sure that Kurt Cobain would approve of "roots Americana," but have a listen.

North Carolina 102, Long Island 87

I only caught bits and pieces of this entertaining game, but I think the youthful Tar Heels got a little caught up in the moment. Carolina was never really in danger of losing this game, but after jumping out to a big first-half lead, they let LIU all the way back. UNC then built another big lead, and the Blackbirds' rebound wasn't quite as high the second time around. LIU's comebacks were fueled by bad shot selection and poor transition defense on North Carolina's part. I have to say, too, that even during Carolina's hot start, Long Island had plenty of quality looks from three-point land that didn't go down. This was a poor defensive effort from the Tar Heels and they are going to have to play better on that end in the second round.

Marquette 66, Xavier 55

This was a very impressive performance from Marquette against an experienced Xavier squad. The Golden Eagles' defense was remarkable all evening, holding Tu Holloway to five points and Mark Lyons to six. My criticism of Holloway this year has been his shot selection, but to his credit, he didn't force much on Friday; Marquette just didn't give him anything ... In addition to more or less shutting down the Musketeers' backcourt, Marquette's long, athletic wings getting to the bucket and scoring with the mid-range game. One thing to note moving forward, however, is that they were a bit shaky with their ballhandling at stretches, probably because not one of them is a true point guard, as far as I can tell. At one point in the first half, Xavier extending their man-to-man to halfcourt, and Marquette turned it over and three consecutive possessions. It might not hurt them, however, against Syracuse, since the Orange of course play that 2-3 zone.

Illinois 73, UNLV 62

I didn't watch more than a few seconds of this blowout -- and don't let the final score fool you, this was a blowout. I was watching Xavier-Marquette and by the time I got to it, Illinois was up 20, a lead they maintained through most of the second half. I don't think I saw Vegas during the regular season, so I can't say much about them. What I can say, however, is having watched the Illini a number of times, I'm shocked by this result. I took UNLV in my bracket solely on the basis of not being impressed with Illinois. Shows what I know. Anyway, this sets up a second round matchup with Kansas. Illinois fans have a special place in their, um, heart for old coach Bill Self, so this should be an intense matchup.

VCU 74, Georgetown 56

The Rams showed no ill effects from having played Wednesday night, really taking it to Georgetown from the get-go. In that regard, VCU is actually an ideal candidate for the First Four: Their preferred frenetic pace requires them to be both deep and well-conditioned. They shuttle guys in and out anyway, so fatigue wasn't much of a factor. Making 12 of 25 three-pointers doesn't hurt, either ... I feel bad for Hoya point guard Chris Wright, who missed the last several games of the season with a hand injury and was clearly out of rhythm today in his return ... The Hoyas end the season having gone a month without a win, and if you ask me, a team playing like that to end the season shouldn't be a six seed. I know the committee doesn't take recent performance into account -- or says it doesn't, anyway -- but maybe it should.

Washington 68, Georgia 65

The Bulldogs stuck around in this one due to their size. North Carolina, Washington's second-round opponent, isn't going to want to want to slow the pace down the way Georgia did, but they should consider going inside to Tyler Zeller a fair bit early ... Isaiah Thomas continues to impress and I'm really looking forward to watching him square off with Kendall Marshall in round 2. Marshall may have to deal with Washington's senior defensive stopper, Venoy Overton, too.

Syracuse 77, Indiana State 60

This game was 25-11, 'cuse, before I got to it, and the Orange had a 12-point lead once the closer games finished and I could get back to it. In the interim, however, my understanding is that the Sycamores closed the gap to six or so, and that's certainly impressive. One thing I was able to notice was how well ISU attacked Syracuse's 2-3 zone; by dribbling into the gaps and either scoring or kicking it out for threes. For Marquette's sake, I hope they were paying attention: The Golden Eagles have the athletes to find those seams, and all four of Jimmy Butler, Dwight Buycks, Jae Crowder, and Darius Johnson-Odom have the ability to score in the lane in the 12-foot range, as well as hit the triple from behind the arc ... Syracuse visited Marquette at the end of January and came away with a loss, their fourth straight at the time after ascending to the No. 3 ranking. Marquette hit better than 52 percent of its shots in that one, including 6-for-13 from three point land ... Rick Jackson and Kris Joseph combined for 30 points on 13-of-22 from the field in that loss, and given the difficulty that Marquette had with Xavier's Kenny Frease and Andrew Taylor inside (the only two Muskies who could get anything going on Friday), I expect the game plan, at least, to feature a heavy dose of those guys.

Day One recap

2011-03-17T21:27:00.000-07:00

So, one side effect of all the games being broadcast separately is that I can watch at least a little bit of every one. In that spirit, here are at least a few words on every game:

West Virginia 84, Clemson 76.

Very surprising that an offensively-challenged Mountaineer team could put up this many points on a good defensive team in Clemson, and you have to wonder if the Tigers wore down after playing Tuesday and being given the early slot today ... I thought West Virginia's run to end the first half was key; not only did it tie the game, it kind of deflated Clemson, which had worked very hard and played very well for that lead ... Dalton Pepper salted the game away (see what I did there?) for WVU with consecutive steals and layups after Clemson had cut it to five late (apparently he got a third straight steal after I switched over to ODU-Butler) ... The officials bailed out Joe Mazzulla with that foul call with WVU up three on the possession before Pepper's first big steal. Mazzulla had been out of control all game, picked up his dribble in the trap, then threw himself on the floor hoping to buy a foul ... I thought Clemson went to its full court pressure a bit too early; it didn't work and only served to further tire them out.

Butler 60, Old Dominion 58.

Last year's runners-up advance on a Matt Howard layup at the buzzer after a big scramble. Hard to fault the ODU kids for not keeping a body on Howard instead of going after the loose ball ... I didn't watch too much of this game, but it seemed like every time I flipped over to it, the Monarchs were missing another layup ... I thought Brad Stevens made a mistake by rolling the dice with both of his foul-prone big men, Matt Howard and Andrew Smith, carrying three fouls early in the second half. Smith soon picked up his fourth, and has to wonder if his absence plus the fact that Howard needed to be a little careful contributed to some of ODU's good looks (which, fortunately for Butler, they missed). One thing I really respect about Stevens and Butler is how they just play their game and have faith in their system, but not reacting to the situation by staggering those guys through the middle part of the second half really could have come back to bite them ... Jay Bilas tweet near the end of this game: "ODU and Butler should be playing majors. The Committee couldn't pit them against Tennessee and Michigan? Better for the game, and easy." He's right. That particular decision also would have kept Old Dominion out of Washington, DC. I always think it's strange how we make a big deal about where, geographically, the top teams play, but pay so little attention to where the other teams go. Why should Ohio State, the tournament's top overall seed, have to play a potential second-round game against ODU in the Monarchs' backyard?

Morehead State 62, Louisville 61

Cutting right to the chase here: I loved the decision for Morehead State to go for the three, and the win, on its final possession. Always my preference when you are the underdog. Preston Knowles being out with an ankle injury made it a closer decision, but I love the idea, and you can't argue with the ultimate result. However, I hate the particular play call. When you hold the ball like that, you're signaling to the other team that you're going to take a three-pointer; it makes no sense to run the clock down just to go for the tie. Fortunately for Morehead State, the Louisville kids didn't seem to recognize it, and Demonte Harper drained the big three ... Clean block by Kenneth Faried to seal the game on Louisville's desperation possession ... Knowles' injury was the turning point of the game, it seems, but I thought at the time he made it that Terrance Hill's three at the end of the first half to knot it at 33 was huge. Morehead State had been leading most of the way before a late Louisville run. I don't really believe in "momentum heading into the locker room," but there's a big difference going in down three and going in tied, especially when you're the underdog ... Greg Anthony tweeted during the game that Faried is a pro, which I think is uncontroversial at this point. He compared him to the Utah Jazz's Paul Millsap, who led the country in rebounding all three years he played at Louisiana Tech. Faried just passed Tim Duncan as Division I's all-time leading rebounder, so that's where the comparison originates. Faried grabbed 17 rebounds against Louisville, but he also shot 4-for-17 from the floor, and I'm guessing those two stats are what Draft Express' Jonathan Givony had in mind when he mentioned that this game showcased Faried's strengths and weaknesses. For what it's worth, I was high on Millsap coming out of college, even though he seemed to have an unpolished offensive game, and he's turned out very well. Lots of similarities here with Faried.

Temple 66, Penn State 64

I didn't really have a chance to watch any of this game, unexpectedly, because of the Morehead State shocker. I did catch the end, however, and it's great to see kids making big shots like the ones Talor Battle and Juan Fernandez made. I would have liked to have seen Fernandez create a better look than the one he got, but he did a nice job not panicking, and used his size well on that game-winning leaner.

Kentucky 59, Princeton 57

Give credit to Brandon Knight for a very tough layup that won this one for Kentucky. I love the confidence that coach John Calipari had in Knight, and the confidence Knight had in himself, to take that shot after missing his first seven. In that situation, you give the ball to your best playmaker, no matter how cold he's been ... I thought Josh Harrellson was the player of the game for Kentucky. A lot was made of the advantage that the Wildcats had over the Tigers in terms of athletic ability, but in the end it was their height advantage that did the trick ... Relatedly, it's worth pointing out that Princeton made a ton of plays one-on-one. Everyone always assumes that Princeton succeeds with gimmicky backcuts and three-point shooting, and while they did some of that -- and the Princeton offense, the proper noun, is a thing of beauty --they really went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. Those kids wearing the black uniforms are just good basketball players. Period.

Pittsburgh 74, UNC-Asheville 51

Only watched a few minutes of this one at the end when all the other venues were dormant. Pitt took care of business in the second half, apparently, after leading by only five at the break.

San Diego State 68, Northern Colorado 50

Barely caught any of this one, either. However, the fact that the Aztecs missed 11 straight shots at one point is why I can't advance them past Duke and into the Final Four. It happened in the regular season against BYU, too. The Blue Devils are prone to their own offensive slumps, but they're also a better team than SDSU and I just don't think the Aztecs are good enough consistently on O to prevail.

Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 66

Richmond was a popular upset pick, and while I didn't like Vandy very much, I picked them in part due to the "fade the public" strategy that burned me last year with Cornell. The other part of that decision was that I've consistently been underwhelmed by Richmond, and Kevin Anderson in particular. Heresy, you say, given Anderson's performance today? I'm not so sure. Yes, he had 25 points. Yes, he hit the game-icing shot, a very tough pull-up fade away that, admittedly, I love to take when I play. But he took 26 shots on the night overall, a very big number for a college player, especially so given how the Spiders slow the pace down. Anderson dribbles the air out of the ball, and it drives me crazy. He'll probably be able to get away with in the second round vs. Morehead State, too.

Florida 79, UC-Santa Barbara 51

The only snippets of this one I caught were at the beginning, when the other games hadn't started yet, and midway through the second half, when the other three games were at halftime. Looks like the Gators outclassed the Gauchos from start to finish ... I still like Michigan State to take out Florida on Saturday, but I do like Chandler Parsons. I'm making him an honorary Calathes ... Early upset pick for 2012 tournament: Long Beach State, who UCSB upset in the Big West final. Put it in a a drawer: The Beach will win a first-round game next year.

Connecticut 81, Bucknell 52

This game was over very early and with Wofford hanging close to BYU for most of the game, I didn't really watch any of it, other than the opening seconds. It looks like the jinx that often comes with conference tournament success didn't catch up with the Huskies, even as it hit Louisville, UConn's foe in the Big East title game. I would have liked to see a better performance from the Patriot League representative, and I'm sad that American University couldn't have been there after an outstanding regular season, but it looks like Connecticut is just hitting on all cylinders still.

BYU 74, Wofford 66

Nice win for the Cougars in a game in which they battled foul trouble and Jimmer Fredette didn't shoot all that well. Wofford is a good team that made the tournament last year and has some experience playing against players with unlimited range, having faced off against Andrew Goudelock and College of Charleston three times in Southern Conference play. Despite his 32 points, I thought Wofford did a nice job making life difficult for Fredette, who himself didn't make things any easier by forcing the action a great deal of the time ... If I were a BYU fan, the thing that would concern me about this game is that Wofford's Noah Dahlman shot 15 free throws (though two were technical free throws). Dahlman is a good player, but he's only 6'6". What are the Cougarrs going to do with Gonzaga's Robert Sacre? And the way the Zags shot the ball against St. John's, the zone that BYU relied on isn't going to be that effective, either.

Wisconsin 72, Belmont 58

I guess we all panicked a little bit after the Buckeyes' 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. Major-conference teams that don't turn it over and make their free throws aren't good upset candidates, now matter how futile their offense can look at times ... The teams picked up the offensive pace after the first ten minutes or so, but before then, with the score inching upwards at a snail's pace, the following three messages showed up in my Twitter feed, one after the other:

Jay Bilas: "Is the shot clock turned off in the Wisconsin-Belmont game? Or are they getting a run in, playing by ones?
Lost Lettermen: "If the NCAA had a sense of humor, they [would] give Wisco-Belmont a basketball with laces for the second half."
Greg Anthony: "Wisconsin basketball might not be able to outscore Wisconsin football and they run the same offense."

UCLA 78, Michigan State 76

That the Spartans made a valiant run at the end is no surprise, and is a testament to Tom Izzo's ability as a coach and motivator. What did surprise me -- and it probably shouldn't have, given the way their season has gone -- is how little passion MSU played with on the way to a 24-point deficit ... As brilliant as Izzo's endgame was, and as well as the Spartans executed it, the Bruins were complicit, missing an incredible number of free throws down the stretch. This may be the rare instance where the win actually hurts the team's confidence. All anyone is going to want tto talk to UCLA about for the next day is how they almost choked a 24-point lead away. It's up to Ben Howland to make sure his team focuses on the first 32 minutes while retaining the lessons of the final eight. (And speaking of a different final eight, the Spartans are my first Elite Eight team out of the tourney; I've lost three-fourths of my Sweet 16 in Pittsburgh's region.)

Cincinnati 78, Missouri 63

Give the Bearcats credit: After a rocky start and with the exception of a stretch in the middle of the second half, they did a nice job of weathering Missouri's frantic pace. The Tigers are a maddening team, because they go through stretches where they look unbeatable, creating steals, making jumpers, scoring in bunches. But they went cold for a long stretch at the end of the first half and to start the second half, and the result was a hole that was too deep to dig out of ... I also underestimated the effect Cincy's rebounding edge would have on this game ... UC's win set up a second-round game with UConn, a rematch of the February 27 game in the Queen City that the visiting Huskies won by eight.

Gonzaga 86, St. John's 71

Tough loss for Steve Lavin and the Red Storm. Both teams came out on fire -- the big difference here was that while SJU cooled off, Gonzaga didn't. It's hard to say how much the Johnnies missed D.J. Kennedy, who ripped up his knee in the Big East tournament, but the Bulldogs had a such a big advantage inside that the presence of the 6'5" Kennedy probably wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome of the game.

Kansas State 73, Utah State 68

This game was called extremely tightly in the first half, from what I saw, and as a result, I though Utah State -- the less-talented offensive team -- struggled to find a rhythm. The Aggies put forth a valiant effort, but I thought the Wildcats, Jacob Pullen in particular, closed very well offensively. Defensively, they committed a couple of really stupid fouls that you know had Frank Martin seething, but this was a good performance.

Recaps from the last few games of the night are scarcer not because I lost steam, but because they were all kind of dull and then all got slightly interesting at around the same time, so I was bouncing from game-to-game a lot and not getting much feel. I'm not sure how much I like being able to switch like this; I might enjoy the games more if I stuck with one -- as long as it was decent -- from buzzer-to-buzzer. Might try that tomorrow; we'll see.

Tweeting During the Tourney

2011-03-17T02:29:00.001-07:00

Follow me and say hi: @HSSlamPhD.

Breaking Down the East and Southwest

2011-03-16T23:11:00.000-07:00

(I broke down the other two regions yesterday.)

EAST

First round upsets: With an unprecedented 11 teams in the tournament field, the Big East is going to be both over-seeded in certain instances and under-seeded in certain instances. Both conditions are present in this region. On the one hand, there's fifth-seeded West Virginia, a pretty uninspiring team that struggles to put the ball in the basket. On the other, there's 11th-seeded Marquette, an experienced squad that has played (and, admittedly, lost) more close games than any other school in the country over the last couple of seasons.

I like Clemson to knock off the Mountaineers. I knew they were good defensively, which they showed in their play-in win over UAB on Tuesday. What I didn't know was how good they were offensively, which they demonstrated a little bit against the Blazers but more potently in their ACC Tournament loss to Carolina. Moreover, I loved the way they bounced back from giving that game away to the Tar Heels by beating UAB handily. At the risk of putting too much stock in one game against a team that most didn't feel deserved an NCAA bid, Clemson appears to be a team that's still growing.

I also like the Golden Eagles to upset Xavier. There's a philosophy in horse racing that says that you shouldn't bet on a horse that has too many second-place finishes; that's a horse that doesn't know how to win a race. Well, despite all their close losses this year and last, I refuse to buy that Marquette is such a horse. And the Musketeers haven't done much outside of their regular-season run in the A-10.

Bracket Buster: North Carolina. I fully recognize that UNC is a different team with freshman Kendall Marshall starting at point guard. In fact, I was one of the ones wondering when coach Roy Williams would insert Marshall in the starting lineup in place of the underachieving (and now departed) Larry Drew. So I know that the Tar Heels of late are the real Tar Heels.

With that said, I have them going out in the second round to Washington. In addition to my usual complaints that Williams-coached teams don't defend, I really didn't like the way they came out in any of their three conference tournament games. Sure, they managed to win two of those, but you're playing with fire when you continually spot good teams a big lead like that. As much as I like Marshall, he looked afraid of the moment in the ACC title game against Duke, while fellow freshman Harrison Barnes looked like he was trying to do too much. I also really like Washington, who pulled this exact same routine last year: High expectations to start the year, a somewhat disappointing regular season, and then a Pac 10 tournament championship. Last year, the Huskies made it to the Sweet 16; I have them going an extra round this year.

On the other hand, Carolina, if they put it together, can blow through their half of the bracket into the Elite 8. Especially if the Heels can get comfortable in their first matchup with Long Island, they could do some damage.

Final Four pick: Ohio State. I picked them as my champion back in November, and I'm not changing now. They've got everything you could ask for in a college basketball team: veteran leadership (David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford), wing scoring (Lighty and Buford), outside shooting (Diebler, Lighty, Buford, and Aaron Craft), post offense (Jared Sullinger), rebounding (Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale), a shotblocker (Lauderdale), a steady hand at point guard (Craft), and a strong overall defense. The one thing missing, perhaps, is the bench, but they defend well without fouling, so foul trouble isn't as big of a problem as it would be with other teams that aren't that deep. I think their road to the Final Four is tougher than for many other top seeds, but not tough enough to get me to change my pick.

SOUTHWEST

First round upsets: I think Florida State and Texas A&M is the toughest first round matchup to pick, and I'm taking the Seminoles mainly because of my minor obsession with Chris Singleton. He should be back from the broken foot that kept him out at the end of the year, and he's the best, most versatile defensive player I've ever seen at the college level.

Another team that was missing its star is Georgetown, and the Hoyas should have Chris Wright back for their first-round matchup with VCU. Frankly, I think Georgetown fits into the over-seeded Big East team category that includes West Virginia and Cincinnati, but I would feel a lot better picking USC in this matchup. USC lost to VCU, though, and now, if I go with my gut, I'm going with a team that lost six games in league play. I'm sticking with it, though. Wright's return will help Georgetown handle VCU's pressure defense, but he's likely to be rusty and wear down a bit. And we've seen what happens to the Hoyas without him in the lineup.

Bracket buster: Louisville. Up until, like, a minute ago, I had Louisville going to the Final Four. And I think there's a chance they do it. But I don't think they have the bodies inside to deal with the Morris twins, not with Rakeem Buckles out. I love the Cardinals, though, especially Peyton Siva.

Final Four pick: Kansas. I hate that I'm going straight chalk this year, but I take some solace in the fact that these four teams have been, hands down, the best four teams all season long. My "sense" of Kansas is that they've had a turbulent, uneven year, and they have -- off the court. On the court, they've fought through injuries and suspensions and managed to lose only two games. They're deep, they can hit the three but don't rely on it too much, they've got the Morris kids inside, and they have the motivation to get back after last year's shocking second-round exit. I'm gonna kick myself if they don't make it, but as of now, they're in my title game (losing to Ohio State).

Breaking Down the West and Southeast

2011-03-16T02:18:00.000-07:00

As you know, the final field of 64 isn't set yet. (The exciting finish between UNC-Asheville and Arkansas-Little Rock aside, this "First Four" thing basically sucks. As I and many others expected, adding four at-large teams hasn't solved any of the bubble problems; instead of more deserving teams getting in, there are now simply more undeserving teams whose bids the committee has to justify to similarly unqualified schools that were left out. As you expand the number of teams that participate, it becomes harder to differentiate between the ones you let in and the ones you leave out. Plus, the product gets diluted. Those who think a playoff system for college football is the answer, take note.)

However, two regions -- the West and the Southeast -- are set. So a few thoughts on those regions first, and I'll tackle the other two regions tomorrow, after Texas-San Antonio vs. Alabama State and VCU vs. USC (Fight On!).

WEST

First-round upsets: There are two big ones that I like. The first is Oakland over Texas, for three reasons: Oakland is tourney-tested and played a bunch of power conference teams tough this season, even winning at Tennessee; Texas stumbled a bit down the stretch in the regular season; and Rick Barnes teams that finish that way tend to underachieve in the postseason, too. The second is Missouri over Cincinnati, because I think the Bearcats' biggest advantage is Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas in the post, and I don't think they have the poise in the backcourt to not get sped up by the Tigers' frenetic pace. Mizzou always burns me in the tournament, though, so pick accordingly.

Bracket buster: Texas. As noted, I have them losing to Oakland in the first round, but they have the talent to bust my bracket by going to the Final Four. It's certainly perilous to ignore a team that became the first to win a game at Kansas' Phog Allen Fieldhouse in 69 tries. Texas has the athletes to give Duke trouble, a bona fide wing scorer in Jordan Hamilton, and Tristan Thompson, perhaps the best freshman big man I saw this year that isn't named Jared Sullinger.

Final Four pick: Duke. For what it's worth, I'm not that high on the defending national champs. They rely too heavily on the three-point shot, and while they got away with it last year, I think you can credit a lot of that to a very favorable draw. So I was looking for a team to beat them early, but, alas, it seems like the draws opens up well for them again. Arizona doesn't defend well enough, Connecticut can't ride Kemba Walker forever, and I have a hard time putting a relatively untested San Diego State team in the Final Four. So Duke it is, almost by default.

SOUTHEAST

First round upsets: One thing I find very interesting about this region is the inclusion of Kansas State and Michigan State. Both started the season as trendy Final Four picks, ranked in the top five, I believe. Both underperformed, to say the least. Kansas State was actually out of the tournament after starting 1-4 in the Big 12, but played its way back in with a strong finish to the season. Michigan State, on the other hand, was mediocre all season, stumbling to 9-9 in the Big 10 and probably making the field on the strength of their non-conference schedule. The conference tournament was typical of the Spartans' season: Eking out a win over Iowa, then blowing out Purdue before losing to Penn State in the semis. Both teams are experienced, too. Why, then, am I picking the Wildcats to lose in the first round while I've got MSU beating Florida on its way to the Elite 8? Call it a hunch, I guess. Plus I think Utah State is a real formidable opponent. I also like Belmont to beat Wisconsin.

Bracket buster: A number of teams could really mess up my picks. I have St. John's in the Sweet 16, but without D.J. Kennedy an experienced Gonzaga team might be too much to overcome. BYU is everyone's darling, but you don't win too many NCAA Tournament games with one player, particularly one whose ballhandling and passing is as suspect as Jimmer Fredette's. In the end, though, Florida is the team that has me most worried. They're the SEC regular season champions and all the contenders in their half of the bracket have big question mark. I don't like the Gators mainly due to the shot selection of their guards, which is something I think a disciplined Spartan team can exploit.

Final Four pick: Pittsburgh. Similar to Duke, I'm having a hard time figuring out which team will beat the Panthers, particularly since I have so many of the favorites in this region losing in the first couple of rounds. I'm not in love with Pitt, but they're battle-tested and the draw opens up nicely for them.

Thoughts on the Fab Five

2011-03-14T02:54:00.000-07:00

Watched ESPN's "30 for 30" documentary on the Fab Five last night.

There's a ton of stuff to say about Fab Five, culturally and as it relates to basketball. I'll leave it to others more qualified to list them all (and many have). As to my own experience, the Fab Five came around at a time when my identity as a basketball player and a basketball fan was really taking shape, and they certainly influenced it. I wore black socks on the court (when I wore socks at all; a pony-tailed St. Peter's College player named Mike Frensley didn't wear them, and inspired me to follow suit when he wore a Nirvana t-shirt to a post-NCAA Tournament game press conference). I wore baggy shorts. My AAU team broke huddles by yelling "Nut check!" the way Mitch Albom, in his book Fab Five, told us that Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson did.

It doesn't sound like much, I know. But considering the college basketball landscape at the time, and the fact that I grew up in Vermont, where there was essentially no exposure to black culture, these things were a big deal. More than anything, the Fab Five taught me that you could play basketball -- play it well, play it right -- while expressing yourself.

As for the documentary itself, I thought it was pretty good. Jalen Rose produced it, and at times it came off as a little self-indulgent, but I thought it captured the era well. I recommend, too, listening to the first part of Bill Simmons' podcast with Rose, during which they discuss the documentary. They talk about a number of issues, including the conspicuous absence of Webber from the film (probably due to the whole Ed Martin/improper benefits/lying to a Grand Jury thing).

That incident, of course, led to the Fab Five being erased from Michigan's record books; the documentary opens and closes with shots of the university's archives, where the banners commemorating the team's Final Four appearances are stored, rather than hanging from the rafters of Crisler Arena. And I think that this is what I like most about the Fab Five, and about ball in general: No matter what else happens, what you do on the court lives forever. The Fab Five never won a national title. On paper, their era ceases to exist -- it's like it never happened. And yet their influence -- from baggy shorts on players to hip hop blaring in arenas to spirited debate about whether college athletes should be paid -- lives on, as it will forever.

Putting UConn's Run in Perspective

2011-03-13T22:24:00.000-07:00

Many have said that Connecticut's run to the Big East title -- five wins in five nights in the nation's toughest conference -- was harder than winning the NCAA Tournament. As regards to timing, at least, that's definitely true -- whoever wins this thing will have their six (or seven) games spread over three weeks.

What about substantively? It's certainly possible that the road to Houston will be no tougher for the Huskies than the one that brought them the Big East trophy.

Throwing away DePaul -- the hapless Blue Demons are no match for even UConn's first round opponent, the Patriot League-champion Bucknell Bison -- UConn beat Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville at Madison Square Garden.

The Hoyas are a six seed in the Big Dance; the Panthers are a one; the Orange, a three; the Cardinals, a four. UConn's a three-seed, so if the tournament goes according to chalk (it never does, but for purposes of this little exercise, let's assume it does), UConn would need to beat a six (Cincinnati, who they beat on the road at the end of February), a two (San Diego State) and two ones (Duke and Ohio State) in addition to Bucknell to reach the national championship game. Throw in an upset here or there, though, and it could be really comparable.

Of course, UConn is by no means a lock to win even their first round game. They are the classic example of a team that over-achieves late in the season, is everyone's "hot" pick to go to the Final Four, then bows out in an early round (Georgetown last year is actually a pretty good example of this).

Political blogger Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com recently wrote a post about similar teams. He used UConn's Big East foe Notre Dame as an example of a team that received no attention at the beginning of the year but that has played its way to a very good seed in this year's tournament. He could easily have used Connecticut as his example; like Notre Dame, the Huskies were unranked to start the season (though they did receive eight votes in the preseason poll). Silver looked at 41 teams who had started the season unranked and entered the tournament ranked in the AP top ten, and found that as a group, they under-performed their expectations by a fairly significant margin (the post is interesting; I suggest you check it out for details).

As of this writing, I don't know where UConn will end up in Monday's writer's poll. They're an interesting case, however. They didn't work their way up in the rankings throughout the season like most teams do. Rather, they leapt into the top ten in November after winning the Maui Invitational in November as an unranked team. They got as high as No. 4 before losing to Pittsburgh in late December, and spent most of the rest of the season ranked somewhere in the teens. Two losses to end the regular season put UConn on the verge of slipping out of the top 25 entirely; they started the Big East Tournament ranked 21st.

It's hard to say how their somewhat unique path will affect anything discussed above. On the one hand, they seem to exhibit all the symptoms of one of these early-round upset victims. On the other, they have now twice shown the ability to beat good teams in a tournament situation -- they beat Wichita State, then-No. 2 Michigan State, and then-No. 8 Kentucky in Maui. The X-factor may be Kemba Walker; he's capable of carrying the Huskies by himself against almost anyone. I personally think the draw opens up pretty well for them, but I'm wary of picking them given the history of these kinds of teams.

BYU 71, San Diego State 58

2011-01-27T16:09:00.000-08:00

So much for writing a blog post about every game I watch this year. I don't know if it's laziness or what, but that New Year's Resolution went out the window pretty fast. I will say, however, that with some notable exceptions, I've felt that the majority of the college hoops games I have watched this season have been pretty poorly played. There seems to be an awful lot of bad offense out there, and perhaps that's why my enthusiasm to write has waned a bit. (Okay, a lot.)

Anyway, I did catch last night's Mountain West showdown of these two top-ten teams, albeit at a bar, which is never the most convenient venue for close examination or thoughtful reflection. But seeing as the nation seems to be in something of a Jimmer Fredette frenzy, I figured I'd write a few words on the guy who is now leading the country in scoring by a full three points.

ESPN's Andy Katz has this to say about Fredette, and it's noteworthy that Katz's first order of business is to distinguish Fredette from Stephen Curry, because the Davidson phenom turned legit NBA weapon for the Golden State Warriors is the guy everyone wants to compare Fredette too. There are some similarities -- shooting range is one, being the focal point of the offense is another -- but there are also some differences. I've only seen Fredette play on occasion, and so I don't want to speak too generally about his game. I do, however, want to focus on one difference between him and Curry and what that means for his NBA prospects.

Curry is as clever a scorer as they come. He's got unlimited range, sure, and he's reasonably quick, but he relied so much on deception, on little head and shoulder fakes to create space, on unconventional tempo and rhythm to get his defender off-balance. I wasn't sold on Curry in the NBA until I saw him at Summer League in Vegas after he got drafted. He had a terrible week shooting the ball, but he got the same sort of shots he had gotten in college. I had been worried that the individual defenders at the professional level would be too good for him, but he was able to get his shot without a problem and I knew it was a matter of time before the ball started going down. I certainly didn't expect this kind of success this quickly (and he's certainly in a system that uses his talents well), but I did think he'd do well after that.

Fredette is something of a different story. He's got the same unbelievable range that Curry does, but against the Aztecs anyway, he got a lot of his points on drives to the bucket, using traditional moves: crossovers, a straightforward first step, etc.

There are a couple of points I want to make here. To start, note that there are obviously concerns about Fredette's athleticism at the next level. If there weren't, then a scorer as prolific as he is would be a shoo-in lottery pick, not a fringe first-rounder. But as there were with Curry, there are concerns that Fredette is not big enough, strong enough, or quick enough to have success against defenders at the next level.

Next, consider that, like Curry, Fredette has the green light to do basically whatever he wants, including take jumpers from outrageously far away. This green light -- and his ability to make use of it -- makes him tougher to guard, as defenders need to take his shot fakes from 30 feet seriously. They must play up on him at all times, which makes it easier for him to get to the basket.

Golden State aside, however, there aren't really any other NBA systems where Fredette would have the kind of offensive freedom that he currently enjoys (and that Curry has with the Warriors). This is significant because if you add a higher-caliber athlete on defense with a less-dynamic game on Fredette's part, the concerns about his ability to drive past people using the bounce seem more valid.

Oddly, then, it's precisely because Fredette displays a more traditional arsenal that I'm less bullish on his NBA prospects than many others are. The guy can definitely play, and perhaps his penetration game is legitimate. But because I haven't seen the same type of stuff I saw from Curry -- the off-balance jumpers and off-the-dribble 27-footers over two defenders -- I'm not yet convinced of his value beyond that of a superb long-range shooter (for which there is certainly room on an NBA roster).

I actually think that Charleston's Andrew Goudelock is a better comparison to Curry, but that's an entry for another time.

Illinois 88, Northwestern 63

2011-01-08T00:52:00.000-08:00

Easy win for the Illini on Thursday night. I continue to be impressed with power forward Mike Davis, the kind of player that makes college basketball so fun for me. Davis won't make a splash on the next level, I don't think, but he's really effective in the post in the college game, with a good jump hook and the best turnaround jumper I've seen from a post player this year.

Also, Bill Carmody is making a mistake playing John Shurna while Shurna struggles with a high ankle sprain. The kid wears a walking boot between practices and games, yet continues to play. I get that Shurna is one of the Big Ten's top scorers (he averages 21.3 points per game) and the Wildcats are trying to capitalize on what appeared to be a real shot at earning the program's first-ever NCAA Tournament bid. And the Wildcats have gotten unlucky with this injury given their conference schedule; they opened with road games against Purdue and Illinois and a home date with Michigan State -- perhaps the three best teams in the league behind Ohio State. The drive for a win in one of those games is understandable, but Shurna is hardly doing anything out there and may be hurting his team. He's 7-for-26 from the field in conference play, having scored just 29 points in the three games, and went 1-for-11 in a 65-62 loss to Michigan State.

Shurna hasn't sat since hurting his ankle, so the only chance he's really had to recover has come from the relatively light schedule due to the semester break. Continuing to play has likely pushed his return to health further back, jeopardizing the softer part of the conference schedule -- games that are truly "must win" for a likely bubble team like the Wildcats. Let Shurna rest, see if promising freshman JerShon Cobb can handle more of the scoring load, and trust veteran point guard Michael Thompson to step up his game in Shurna's absence.

Cincinnati 66, Xavier 46

2011-01-08T00:28:00.000-08:00

This game was Thursday, and was as uncompetitive a Crosstown Shootout as I can remember.

I think Cincy, undefeated but relatively untested, might be the real deal. I've seen Xavier a few times this year and they aren't as good as we've grown accustomed to over the past few seasons, but I was really impressed with Cincy's two big kids, Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas. They both can score, rebound, and defend, and have good chemistry on the high-low. Gates also hit a pair of impressive fadeaway jumpers from 15-plus feet where he caught the ball in the post, faced up, took a couple dribbles backwards, then put up a good-looking, high-arcing shot. It reminded me a bit of late-career Karl Malone, though there's a chance I'm mis-remembering Malone.

As for the Musketeers, I've been really unimpressed with point guard Tu Holloway, the junior whose scoring average has jumped this season. He can put the ball in the basket, but he uses a ton of possessions, doesn't create for his teammates, and seems to lack the poise and leadership qualities you need out of a point guard. He picked up a technical foul against the Bearcats, was constantly looking to the officials for calls he didn't deserve, and I remember at least one instance of him yelling at a teammate who didn't catch one of his passes.

Marquette 79, West Virginia 74

2011-01-01T10:36:00.000-08:00

New Year's Resolution: Write something -- anything at all -- about every basketball game I watch. I had hoped to get this blog into better shape over break, but my hard drive crashed almost as soon as I got to DC and I haven't been able to do much. I'm currently posting using my Dad's Netbook, which isn't great for stuff like that. Maybe I'll have time to do it once I get back to LA and get my computer fixed.

Woke up this morning hangover-free thanks to a low-key New Year's Eve spent by myself watching 12 straight hours of college hoops and caught a terrific Big East game. Buzz Williams has got himself another solid team at Marquette, with five double-figure scorers -- Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Jae Crowder, Vander Blue, and Dwight Buycks. The Golden Eagles always seem to have squads like this: a bunch of solid perimeter players without a really strong inside presence, with an undersized four (Crowder in this case, Lazar Hayward in years past) doing some of the dirty work inside. What I like about this year's squad is that it doesn't rely too heavily on the three-pointer. I know that threes are an efficient form of offense, but one thing that has soured me on the college game is how so many teams are just three-point factories. The college line is too close and it's not a terribly difficult shot for many college players, and it can be fun when a capable team gets hot from the arc (like Ohio State did yesterday against Indiana), but it's just not enjoyable to watch when mediocre shooters take so many three-pointers. The Golden Eagles get a lot of stuff at or near the rim -- another very efficient shot -- so it's not as if they are hurt by this year's offensive strategy.

This was a back and forth game. Oddly, given Marquette's balanced scoring attack and perimeter orientation, it was the only bucket scored by Chris Otule that put the Golden Eagles ahead for good. That had to have been a frustrating play for West Virginia coach Bob Huggins. Down by a point with less than two minutes remaining, Buycks took what the defense gave him, which was a wide-open three-pointer from the right wing (Buycks was 11-for-32 from deep on the season heading into the game). The shot hit the front rim and bounced softly off the backboard on the weakside, where Otule was waiting to slam it home. On a play where West Virginia chose to leave the shooter open, it also left the weak-side rebounder uncontested, and that's gotta drive a coach crazy.

The game wasn't sealed until a couple of possessions later, when Crowder -- last year's juco player of the year -- ripped the ball from Casey Mitchell, another former juco player of the year, at the top of the key, and Mitchell instinctively reached out and grabbed Crowder's shorts before he could stop himself, resulting in an intentional foul. Crowder was outstanding all night; career high on offense (I think he ended with 29), some nice assists, disruptive on defense, and leading the way on the boards.

Marquette's experience late in close games showed; they played something like 16 games decided by four points or less last year. West Virginia played its fair share of close games last season, too, and have plenty of returning players. The difference is that they don't have Da'Sean Butler, last year's closer who had like six game-winning shots last year. Mitchell is the Mountaineers most talented offensive player, but he's also something of a loose cannon from what I've seen and I wouldn't necessarily feel comfortable with his shot selection in that situation. Truck Bryant had a great offensive game, but couldn't come up with the big baskets late. It will be interesting to see who carries the load for WVU down the stretch going forward.

Bryant did most of his damage, by the way, when he shared the court with fellow point guard Joe Mazzulla. It's interesting, because it's not like Mazzulla was creating a lot of opportunities for him. I guess being relieved of the burden of initiating the offense and getting everyone else involved is enough to set Bryant free on offense.

One other note about West Virginia: On paper, they had the edge inside, but didn't get much out of Deniz Kilicli and Kevin Jones in the early stages of the game, or late in the game. They also didn't get to the free throw line as often as they should have given their size advantage.

Duke 61, Butler 59

2010-04-06T01:12:00.000-07:00

What a game, and what a fitting end to an amazing tournament.

I'm having trouble putting into words the admiration I have for Butler and the way they flat-out refuse to let their opponent dictate the pace. Even down five late, their offense stalled and their dreams of a most improbable national championship slipping away, they played with a deliberateness that was almost alarming. They are a team that has an unwavering confidence in their system and each other, a faith that the game lasts 40 minutes -- not 35, not 38 -- and that if they are the best team, they'll come out on top in the end. That's the way they played all season, on their way to a 25-game winning streak, and it's the way they played over the last three weeks, winning their first five games in this tournament despite trailing in the second in each. Playing on a stage that even they probably didn't realistically see themselves on when the field was announced three weeks ago, the Bulldogs didn't get rattled, making the late baskets and getting the late stops they needed to give themselves a very real chance at winning the game on their final possession.

I also have admiration for Duke, never a popular team outside their fan base, but an especially villainous bunch this year, playing the foil to the sentimental favorites. It's not easy being the bad guy, but they did it. From the outset, the usual moaning about the Devils could be heard, the selection committee widely panned for paving Duke's way to Indianapolis not only by giving them a top seed that they arguably didn't deserve, but by slotting them in a bracket that was by most accounts the weakest of the four. But you can only beat the teams you play, and Duke did that, stepping up their play as their competition got better. This squad doesn't seem like a national championship team -- it's hard to see any of these guys having a substantial NBA career, and years from now casual fans won't remember Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith, not to mention Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek. But there are plenty of great players who have gone through that program without winning a national title, and those five guys have one. That's really the bottom line, isn't it?

Despite all of this, I can't help but feel a little bit cheated by the ending. When Gordon Hayward's arcing, rainbow fadeaway seemed headed for the bottom of the net, we were just moments away from "Indiana wins the championship; Keith Smart is the hero!" And when Hayward, granted a second chance after that shot hit the back rim and bounced off, came within, oh, an inch or so of banking home a 45-footer to win the national championship, we were within that inch of "They won it! On the dunk!"

These are moments frozen in time, the kind of thing you don't get a chance to see very often. When you come as close as we did Monday night to one of those moments, you can't help but feel disappointed that it didn't pan out. I watched every replay CBS showed of Gordon's last-second prayer, and each time, I half-expected it to drop through, to see the crowd go crazy, and to hear one of Jim Nantz's signature premeditated calls.

That's the way these things are supposed to end, especially this one, with so many similarities to the movie Hoosiers: An upstart Indiana school whose home gym was used to film the final game; a powerful opponent for the underdog in the championship; an old-school, likable, unassuming star with a good look at the game-winner. Hell, Dennis Hopper's even in the hospital.

But that's not how things always work, and perhaps the setup was simply too perfect. Even Jimmy Chitwood misses on occasion.

Sunday Elite Eight Picks

2010-03-27T20:27:00.000-07:00

Saturday was another good day of hoops in a tournament that keeps on giving. West Virginia took out Kentucky, the field's remaining favorite, in relatively convincing fashion (the 73-66 final score doesn't tell the whole story). And Butler pulled off its second straight come-from-behind victory over a major conference foe, dispatching Kansas State 63-56.

On to Sunday's picks.

#5 Michigan State vs. #6 Tennessee

Bracket: Kansas (over Georgetown) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: The Volunteers are in a regional final for the first time in the (men's) program history; Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is looking to get to his sixth Final Four at the school. None of that history really matters, however; all that matters are the kids who will decide the game tomorrow afternoon.

Michigan State really put the clamps on Northern Iowa on Friday night, but their performance on that end of the floor hid their weak offensive performance. They'll need better against Tennessee, a traditionally perimeter-oriented team that has two upperclassmen bigs, Wayne Chism and Brian Williams, playing extremely well. (Chism was especially impressive during the second half of the Vols' win over Ohio State on Friday.) You have to be good offensively and defensively to beat Tennessee, and without Kalin Lucas, I don't think the Spartans have quite enough.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor (South)

Bracket: Duke (over Villanova) | Pick: Duke

Comment: The Bears were mighty impressive in wiping Omar Samhan and St. Mary's from our collective memories on Friday, totally dominating from the opening tap. They are big where they are supposed to be big, quick where they're supposed to be quick, packed with skill, and able to put up points in a hurry. Their commitment to defense is, by my eye, a little suspect, but they're a good team.

Take a look, though, at who they beat to get here. St. Mary's last round. Old Dominion the round before. And Sam Houston State to open the tournament. Not a major conference team in the bunch. Now, Butler and Northern Iowa have showed that you don't have to be a BCS school to take down some of the games true powers, but even well-regarded ODU wasn't nearly as heralded as Butler (who was a five seed after all).

The point is that while Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are capable of getting hot enough to hit shots against anyone, they haven't had to do anything in this tournament against relatively elite athletes. (It's worth nothing that Baylor had trouble with both Old Dominion and Sam Houston State before the blowout of St. Mary's.) And for that reason, absent a real familiarity with Baylor, which I admittedly do not have, the pick has to be Duke. The Devils have already handled two top teams, California and Purdue. They have depth in the front court to deal with Ekpe Udoh and they have a backcourt to trade shots with Carter and Dunn. They've got a better commitment to defense, and a bit more of a track record. And after Sunday night, they'll have Coach K's eleventh Final Four.

(Plus, if Baylor wins, my bracket will have zero Final Four teams correct, the first time I can remember that happening. And I didn't even pick Kentucky and Syracuse!)

Saturday's Elite Eight Picks

2010-03-27T01:39:00.000-07:00

Tonight was a solid, though largely unspectacular night in this NCAA Tournament, with no game able to serve as an encore to Thursday's incredible Kansas State-Xavier contest. The game that came closest was Tennessee's upset of Ohio State in the Midwest region. I panned the officials for their missed call when KSU was trying to foul at the end of its game Thursday night, so I should applaud them for a great no-call at the end of this one. After OSU superstar Evan Turner grabbed a rebound and dribbled out to the three-point line to take one last shot to try and tie the game, J.P. Prince went up and blocked the shot. Turner went down awkwardly, partly from the force of the block, partly in an attempt to draw a call. But the officials stood silent, even as the Buckeye bench erupted. Replays vindicated the stripes, however, showing a clean block, and also that, if anything, Turner initiated contact with Prince with his non-shooting arm. Great job on a tough call by the refs.

Elsewhere, St. Mary's proved to be no match for Baylor, and Duke wore Purdue down. And Michigan State shattered Northern Iowa's glass slipper in a vise grip, holding the Panthers to five second-half field goals, none over the final 10 minutes, in a 59-52 victory.

On to picks and analysis for Saturday's pair of Elite 8 games.

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas State (over Syracuse) | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Butler did on Thursday what I didn't think they could do; beat a skilled, much more athletic Syracuse team. The Orange did their part, coming out flat, forgetting about Wesley Johnson at the end of the game, taking ill-advised shots and making turnovers (Andy Rautins and especially Scoop Jardine being the biggest culprits). Because the story of the game was how poorly Syracuse played, I still don't have a very good feel for the Bulldogs. I know they have Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward, the last two Horizon players of the year. I know they have solid guards, like they always do. And I know they like to slow the pace way down.

I know a lot more about Kansas State. I know they've got two of the tournament's most spectacular, most prolific shotmakers in Jacob Pullen in Denis Clemente. Furthermore, while Pullen delivered the daggers in Thursday's double-overtime win over Xavier, it was the Wildcats' big men that did a lot of the damage during the extra periods. There are a whole list of adjectives to describe K-State: big, fast, tough, deep. They seem to have that "refuse to lose" attitude that successful teams have this time of year. They might not win the whole thing, but I think they spoil Butler's attempt to return home to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Washington) | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: In this game, I'm forced to choose between two teams I haven't trusted all tournament. After Thursday's win over Cornell, a lot was made about Kentucky's stifling defense, which, after the Big Red got off to a fast start, allowed just six points over the final 15 minutes of the first half. It's true, that's a damn impressive defensive performance, no matter who you do it against. (And Cornell is no ordinary group of Ivy Leaguers; they fairly cut up a couple of excellent defensive teams in the first two rounds.) The score at halftime was 32-16, and it appeared that the high-octane Wildcats showed that they could play offense as well as defense.

Here, however, is that I noticed: With 5:42 remaining the game, a Louis Dale three-pointer made the score 40-34, Kentucky. That's right; big, bad UK scored eight points in the first 14 minutes plus of the second half, almost as big a drought as Cornell's first-half dry spell. Even in the first 20 minutes, Kentucky was getting most of its points from their defense, in transition, not their halfcourt offense.

Maybe it wasn't a representative performance, but if they have that much trouble scoring against Cornell, how are they doing to do it against a tough defensive squad like West Virginia. (Struggling to score against Cornell isn't as forgivable as shutting them down is impressive, if that makes any sense.) Kentucky scored 190 points in the first two rounds of this tournament, but against lesser defensive teams. I didn't see either of those games, but I did see UK play well offensively only periodically in wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.

It feels weird to take the Mountaineers in this game, because I haven't been able to figure out how they keep getting it done. But, they do keep getting it done, and I think their toughness, poise, and experience gets them through. And I'm willing to go so far as to say that I think it won't be as close as you might expect.

Friday's Sweet 16 Picks

2010-03-26T00:15:00.000-07:00

Nice little night of basketball, capped by Kansas State's incredible double overtime victory over Xavier. This was one of those games where it truly was a shame that one of the teams had to lose. It's impossible to recap the number of plays made by the Musketeers, particularly Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford. But an equal number of plays were made by the Wildcats, with Jacob Pullen putting on the finishing touches. That thriller overshadowed Butler's somewhat surprising upset of Syracuse, who inexplicably shrank down the stretch after taking a four-point lead. Elsewhere, Washington's Quincy Pondexter picked up three fouls in the first half and never really got into the flow of the game as West Virginia pulled away in the second half, and a plucky Cornell team finally succumbed to Kentucky, revealing the Wildcats to be a ferocious defensive team, if one that struggles to score in the halfcourt at times.

One note about Xavier-Kansas State before I get to picks for Friday. Down three with under ten seconds left, KSU coach Frank Martin (smartly) ordered his charges to foul, in order to prevent Xavier from attempting a game-tying three. Chris Merriewether followed those orders, but was whistled for fouling Holloway in the act of shooting. Credit Holloway for making a smart play, but divide blame between Merriewether and the officials. Merriewether's contact with Holloway came after Denis Clemente clearly grabbed Holloway. No foul was called, but Holloway, sensing the contact, went up for like 30-foot runner, hoping to trick the officials into giving him three free throws, something you see in the NBA quite a bit. The officials didn't need tricking, but Merriewether's contact resulted in those three FTs, which Holloway coolly knocked down.

I've thought for a long time that officials wait far too long to call fouls when one team is obviously trying to give one. What happened Thursday night is a rare occurrence, but at least two badthings can happen when the refs swallow their whistles. First, if the defending team is given too much leeway in slapping, they can cause the ballhandler to cough up the pill. Second, a team trying to foul but not being given the call will only try to foul harder, which leads to intentional foul calls and raised tempers. I don't know if Martin told the crew that his team was going to try to foul, but the officials needed to be looking for it, and they weren't.

On to picks for Friday's remaining Sweet 16 games:

#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Tennessee (Midwest)

Bracket: Georgetown (over Oklahoma State) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: I really don't have much of a conviction about this one. I didn't see either team much during the regular season, had both teams losing in the first weekend in my bracket, are didn't see a lot of them during their tournament wins. I'm giving the edge to the Vols, an under-seeded team that handed Kentucky one of its two losses and whose seed may have been affected by a misleading final score in the semifinals of the SEC tournament (the game was close until the last eight minutes or so). My hunch is that Tennessee's pressing defense will be too much for the Buckeyes. Evan Turner is a terrific player and a passable point guard at this level, but that's not the style he thrives in running the show. In the wacky Midwest, is anyone really gonna argue with me?

#3 Baylor vs. #10 St. Mary's (South)

Bracket: Villanova (over Old Dominion) | Pick: Baylor

Comment: Again, two teams I don't know a ton about and two teams I picked to lose in the first weekend. I was dead wrong about the Gaels' Omar Samhan; he's arguably been the tournament's most valuable player thus far. The thing is, he still hasn't done it against an NBA caliber big man, and my concerns about his quickness and athleticism -- on both ends of the floor -- remain. Baylor, however, has that NBA caliber big man in Ekpe Udoh, and this intriguing matchup is the key to the game. The crafty Samhan should try to get Udoh into foul trouble, and he may find a way to score on him. If he doesn't, and I don't think he will, St. Mary's probably doesn't have enough to keep up with LaceDarius Dunn and the rest of the high-octane Bears.

#5 Michigan State vs. #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas (over Michigan State) | Pick: Northern Iowa

Comment: If Kalin Lucas were healthy, I'd take the Spartans. But the MSU point guard tore his Achilles in the second round against Maryland, and while the Spartans hung on to beat the Terps without him, I'm not sure they can be successful over the course of a whole game against a good team like UNI. The Panthers like to slow the tempo down and Lucas is the one Spartan who could have sped it up. I don't like betting against Tom Izzo in the tournament, but I think Cinderella marches on.

#1 Duke over #4 Purdue (South)

Bracket: Duke (over Siena) | Pick: Duke

Comment: A few weeks ago, this was a possible Final Four matchup. Then Robbie Hummel went down with a knee injury -- add Hummel and Lucas to Syracuse's Arinze Onuaku and West Virginia's Truck Bryant and this tournament is missing a lot of key players, huh? -- and Purdue stumbled down the stretch. The Boilers bounced back to impressively beat Siena and Texas A&M, doing so with characteristic Big Ten toughness. Unfortunately for Purdue, Duke finally has the bodies to match that toughness. Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers are not the nation's most skilled big men, but they provide fouls and rebounding. And without Hummel, there isn't enough skill on the Purdue perimeter to counter-act Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith.

Thursday Sweet 16 picks

2010-03-24T22:01:00.000-07:00

I should start by pointing out, as my father did to me, that I went 8-for-8 on my picks on Sunday. Not that there was too much to slip up on on that pacticular day, but perhaps it lends me a little credibility now that half of the Final Four I submitted on my bracket is gone.

#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: It was reported today that Arinze Onuaku will once again not play for the Orange, and that he hasn't practiced or played since he injured his quad on March 11. There are teams remaining in the field against whom I think this would be a big problem. From what little I know of Butler, however -- and it's very little -- the Bulldogs are not one of them. Syracuse really laid it on Gonzaga in the second round, while Butler really struggled. In a survive-and-advance format like this one, a team's past performance doesn't really matter from game to game, and especially not from weekend to weekend -- so I'm not saying that Butler can't win. But I am saying that it would take something like foul trouble for Rick Jackson and mediocre nights from Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins for it to happen. In other words, Butler doesn't control who wins this game; Syracuse does, and that's why they are the pick.

#2 Kansas State vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Both of these teams have been impressive so far in this tournament, although I think that Pittsburgh -- the #3 seed and Xavier's second round victim -- was overrated by the selection committee, and that BYU -- which fell to K-State in the second-round -- was overrated by a Jimmer Fredette-crazy media and general public. KSU, led by Jacob Pullen, held Fredette to 21 points, which qualifies as keeping him in check. X's Jordan Crawford, who has averaged 27.5 points in two tournament games, is the next challenge -- and a different one. Where Fredette was crafty, Crawford is athletic and powerful -- and, at 6-4, four inches taller than Pullen. I expect Frank Martin to start the 6-5 Dominique Sutton on Crawford, the way he started him on Fredette. If, however, Sutton struggles with the assignment the way he did against BYU, Crawford's height advantage might give Pullen more trouble than Fredette did.

Of course, Pullen poses plenty of problems on the other end of the court, where he turned in one of the tournament's best individual performances with 34 points -- including 7-of-12 from three-point range -- against the Cougars, despite apparent hip and shoulder injuries.

Really, there are just a bunch of very good players in this game: Crawford and Pullen; Jason Love and Terrell Holloway for Xavier; Sutton and Denis Clemente for Kansas State. I expect a very good game, and I give the edge to the Wildcats because I trust Pullen and Clemente down the stretch more than I trust Crawford and Holloway. There's just something a little bit reckless about the latter two.

#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: Like their Big East counterparts Syracuse and Onuaku, West Virginia will also be without one of their starters. Point guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant will miss the rest of the tournament after breaking a bone in his foot. I'm not really sure how Bryant's absence affects this game. The Mountaineers have a capable replacement in Joe Mazzulla, who is a former starter and who actually played 24 minutes to Bryant's 16 in WVU's second-round win over Missouri. And, let's face it, a guy named Truck wasn't going to be able to guard U-Dub's lightning-quick point guard, Isaiah Thomas, anyway. The problem for West Virginia is that Mazzulla, while a good defender, can't guard Thomas, either ... and now they don't really have anyone to play behind Mazzulla ... and Mazzulla, who to be fair has suffered from a severe shoulder injury that has destroyed his shot, is, at best, not a complete liability on offense (if you catch what I'm saying). West Virginia was able to hold Missouri's high-octane offense in check, but Washington's guards are better than Mizzou's and that's why I think they win.

The matchup to watch, by the way, is at small forward, where WVU's Mr. Clutch, Da'Sean Butler, the author of a half-dozen game-winning shots this season, squares off against Quincy Pondexter, who did his best Butler impression in round one against Marquette, driving left, stepping through, and banking in a leaner with fewer than two seconds left on the clock to beat the Eagles. NBA types are salivating at the prospect of watching these two square off, and you should be, too.

#1 Kentucky v. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Texas) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I still haven't really seen Cornell, so it'd be pretty disingenuous of me to pick them to beat UK, even though I clearly don't trust Kentucky (I had them losing to Texas in the second round). They have no business beating Kentucky, either. And yet, you can at least envision a scenario where it might happen. You can see the Big Red continuing to hit shot after shot -- they're shooting an incredible 58.8 percent for the tournament so far, against Temple and Wisconsin, for crying out loud, two programs with excellent defensive reputations. You can see the volatile DeMarcus Cousins getting frustrated early and getting in to foul trouble. You can see Patrick Patterson taking a few too many three-pointers to compensate. You can see John Wall trying to do too much on his own. You can see John Calipari panicking a bit on the sidelines. You can see the Wildcats missing key free throws down the stretch and blowing, in familiar fashion, another opportunity for Coach Cal to win his first national title.

The only problem with this scenario is that, like Syracuse in their matchup with Butler, Kentucky is the one who will ultimately determine the outcome of this game -- that is, playing their absolute best, Cornell still won't beat a UK team playing at or near the top of its game. And while I obviously had some concerns about Kentucky entering the tournament that are still valid -- their immaturity and free throw shooting, namely -- their results show that they were extremely focused in the first two rounds (though East Tenneesee State and Wake Forest -- one of the least-poised major conference teams I've seen this year -- weren't exactly tough tests). This would be an all-time upset.

UNI stuns Kansas; Day Four Picks

2010-03-21T01:44:00.000-07:00

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #1 Kansas 67 (Midwest)

Gotta start here. What a game! Because Kansas, the top overall seed, was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, this upset ranks as one of the tournament's all-time surprises. Hours later, with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that we shouldn't have been caught off-guard. The Jayhawks were the favorites by default, the strongest team in a field devoid of truly great teams. This isn't like last year's Carolina's squad losing. But let's not take anything away from UNI.

What was really remarkable about this game is not that the Panthers one, but the way they won. Mid-majors aren't supposed to beat power conference heavies by crashing the boards, but two key offensive rebounds late saved the win. Little teams from the Midwest are supposed to win games like this by hitting an inordinate number of shots (see Ohio's first round-upset of Georgetown), but UNI shot just 40 percent from the floor and hit a not-ridiculous nine three-pointers (out of 26 attempts). The Panthers won by playing confident basketball, getting to the line as much as the bigger, more athletic Jayhawks.

And then there was the shot. You've probably seen the highlights now, but to briefly set the scene, Northern Iowa was in the process of pissing this game away with turnovers, really struggling to break Kansas' full-court pressure (one has to wonder why Bill Self didn't go to this defense earlier). With 42 seconds left, UNI had let KU get within one. After a timeout, UNI broke Kansas' pressure and had a two-on-one break, with Ali Farokhmanesh (who hit the game-winner in round one vs. UNLV) handling the ball on the right wing and another Panther underneath the basket. Conventional wisdom here is to hold the ball, run some clock, get fouled, and try to salt the game away at the free throw line.

What did Farokhmanesh do? He calmly dribbled to the three-point line. When the lone Kansas defender back didn't come out to him, Farokhmanesh calmly stepped into a three-pointer that was good the whole way. UNI by four, and the game was effectively over then.

It's easy to say that this was a good shot if it goes in, but a terrible shot if it misses. Figuring out whether this is right involves a complex calculation measuring the probability of making the shot, the probability of making both free throws if Farokhmanesh pulled up, and the probability of UNI winning with a one-, two-, three-, or four-point lead. Of course, Farokhmanesh didn't think about all those things. He simply saw an opportunity to seal the game and took it, and it's hard to blame the kid for that. And because of someone named Ali Farokhmanesh, the tournament is now wide open.

***

The rest of the day's games were decent-to-good overall, but there's not much to mention beyond the box scores. I'll save any thoughts I have on them for when I make my Sweet 16 picks next week. On to picks for tomorrow's eight second-round games:

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: The news that Arinze Onuaku will miss a second straight game with the quad injury he suffered against Georgetown makes it very tempting to pick Gonzaga here, but Gonzaga isn't really deep up front and I don't think Robert Sacre and Will Foster are enough to take advantage of the hole in the middle that will result from Onuaku's absence. I won't at all be surprised if the Zags win this one, particularly if their bevy of perimeter players can get an already thin 'cuse team in foul trouble.

#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (Midwest)

Bracket: Oklahoma State (over Ohio State) | Pick: Ohio State

Comment: A run through a mediocre ACC to the conference championship game and a win in the first-round keyed by unusually accurate free-throw shooting isn't enough to sell me on the Yellowjackets. The Buckeyes will have their hands full with Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal underneath, but GT doesn't take advantage of these guys enough. Defensively, the Jackets held Okie State's James Anderson in check, but Evan Turner is a more complete player than Anderson. Controlling his scoring his one thing, controlling his playmaking another.

#4 Michigan State vs. #4 Maryland (Midwest)

Bracket: Michigan State (over Houston) | Pick: Michigan State

Comment: The Terrapins looked much better in their opening round win over Houston than the Spartans did in beating New Mexico State, but MSU had a big lead for a while in that one. I think this one is basically a toss-up, but Maryland is weaker defensively and relies almost solely on Greivis Vasquez. Less has to go right for Michigan State to win that it does for Maryland to prevail, so the Spartans are the pick.

#2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri (East)

Bracket: West Virginia | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: Missouri's explosiveness may test a Mountaineer team that has trouble concentrating for all 40 minutes. It's easy to quickly fall behind the Tigers, and they have the potential to just run away with any game. But their unrelenting style also lends itself to allowing comebacks. Expect Bob Huggins to employ the 1-3-1 zone he occasionally favors to slow the pace down.

#4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Temple) | Pick: Cornell

Comment: I hate going against one of my picks like this, particularly when my bracket has Wisconsin in the Final Four (I had Texas, then Washington coming out of the East before settling on the Badgers. If I were making the pick now, I'd take Washington). But I made that pick knowing nothing about Cornell other than the fact that everyone had them beating Temple -- often a sign that a team is overrated. Now that I know that Cornell has a legitimate inside weapon and a bunch of guys who can shoot from the outside, I like them here. Wisconsin's struggles against Wofford in the first round certainly didn't help its case.

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Xavier | Pick: Xavier

Comment: I'm just not all that high on Pitt, which doesn't have a single outstanding player. You can't say the same about Xavier, which has Jordan Crawford. His first-round performance made a strong case that his name should be on the list of go-to guys alongside Evan Turner, De'Sean Butler, and now, Ali Farokhmanesh.

#4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M (South)

Bracket: Siena (over Utah State) | Pick: Purdue

Comment: This is purely a hunch pick, which is not surprising given that I didn't think enough of either favorite to win even their first-round matchup. The Boilermakers are playing with a little bit of a chip on their shoulders since being counted out after losing Robbie Hummel, and I think that'll make the difference. I think.

#1 Duke vs. #8 California (South)

Bracket: Duke | Pick: Duke

Comment: With Villanova's exit on Saturday at the hands of St. Mary's, I think Cal might actually be Duke's toughest remaining test on the way to the Final Four. The Devils don't have anyone as good as dimunitive Bear point guard Jerome Randle, but they have the three next-best players in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. Now that they finally have a front line, they win my vote.

Day Three Picks

2010-03-20T04:01:00.000-07:00

#2 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary's (South)

Bracket: Villanova (over Richmond) | Pick: Villanova

Comment: Fortunate to have survived their first-round matchup with Robert Morris, the Wildcats shake it off and cruise. They've got no real answer to Omar Samhan inside, but Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will overwhelm Mickey McConnell.

#5 Butler vs. #13 Murray State (West)

Bracket: Butler | Pick: Butler

Comment: Both clubs notched impressive first-round victories, though both opponents were probably over-rated. Edge goes to the Bulldogs, because they're the better team.

#6 Tennessee vs. #14 Ohio (Midwest)

Bracket: Georgetown (over San Diego State) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: Look, if the Bobcats shoot as well as they did against the Hoyas, they can beat nearly anybody. But they were a middling shooting team this season, and it's difficult to catch lightning in a bottle more than once. Armon Bassett could carry them, but I think Tennessee's a bit better than they're being given credit for.

#1 Kansas vs. #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas (over UNLV) | Pick: Kansas

Comment: I don't really need to explain why I think the Jayhawks will win, do I?

#3 Baylor vs. #11 Old Dominion (South)

Bracket: Old Dominion | Pick: Old Dominion

Comment: The Bears have plenty of offensive firepower, but haven't impressed me defensively and struggled against Sam Houston State in round one. The Monarchs take a close one.

#3 New Mexico vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: At the start of the year, you might have expected these two teams' seeds to be swapped. The Huskies are finally playing up to their potential, while the Lobos struggled to beat Montana in round one.

#2 Kansas State vs. #7 BYU (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: I'm not ready to say that Jimmer Fredette can't score on the K-State's defenders, who are quicker and more athletic than he's used to. But I will say that it will be hard enough that the Cougars won't win.

#1 Kentucky vs. #9 Wake Forest (East)

Bracket: Texas (over Kentucky) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I thought the Wildcats might be vulnerable, though that was before they came out as one of the few top seeds on Thursday not to struggle. Expect this one to be sloppy, but the more talented team should win.

Day Two Recap

2010-03-20T03:19:00.000-07:00

There wasn't nearly as much interesting Friday as there was on Thursday (how could there have been?), so I'm not going to go game by game, I don't think.

#12 Cornell 78, #5 Temple 65 (East)

#4 Purdue 72, #13 Siena 64 (South)

Cornell and Siena were probably the two most popular upset picks heading into the tournament. I was on the Siena bandwagon mainly for anti-Purdue reasons, but I went against the crowd taking Cornell. Oh-for-two. Neither of these games were televised in my area, so I only caught bits and pieces when the TV coverage switched and on MMOD. From what I could tell, Cornell just shot the lights out, and given how their second-round opponent, Wisconsin, struggled today against Wofford, a trip to the Sweet 16 seems very possible, if not quite likely.

As for Siena, they held a three-point halftime lead before giving up a big run to start the second. They trailed by quite a bit, then made a late push, and actually would've had the ball with a chance to tie the game if not for a lucky bounce on a Boiler free throw (the ball hit the precise spot where the rim meets the backboard, died, and dropped through). As far as I could tell, the tide turned when the game got physical and the officials, to Purdue's distinct advantage, let the kids play. That's not to say that the Boilermakers got the better of the calls; just that they are far more suited to playing that style.

#10 Missouri 86, #7 Clemson 78 (East)

Missouri's transition from defense to offense needs to be seen to be believed. On multiple occasions against Clemson, Missouri players were running up court before I even noticed their team had the ball. That's not all that remarkable when the change in possession comes from a missed shot; a lot of teams have someone leak out when a shot goes up. But this happened on steals. I've never seen a team more conscious of their transition offense. I'm really looking forward to their matchup against West Virginia (comfortable victors over Morgan State on Friday) in the second round.

At what point does the selection committee stop inviting Oliver Purnell-coached teams to the tournament? He's now 0-6 in tournament games with Old Dominion, Dayton, and Clemson, despite the fact that he's had the higher-ranked squad on four of those occasions, including each of the last three years. I have no reason to doubt those who say that Purnell is a good coach and a good guy, but these results speak for themselves.

#10 Georgia Tech 64, #7 Oklahoma State 59

I don't feel too bad having picked the Cowboys to win this one, considering the margin of victory and the fact that the Jackets made 24 of 25 free throws and didn't make a field goal for the final eight minutes. GT made fewer than two-thirds of their free throws on the year (307th out of 347 Division I teams), so the season-extending near-perfect day at the stripe certainly came as a surprise. (As an aside, Wofford was kind of the anti-Georgia Tech on Friday, missing six of seven second-half free throws in what ended up being a four-point loss to Wisconsin. This performance was more in line with what they did in the regular season, however, where they shot just better than 67 percent from the line).

I do have one issue with Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford, however, who left the Bradley Center in Milwaukee with a timeout in his pocket. I thought he should have called it when the Cowboys got the ball back down three with 43 seconds left, because you can't really trust players to know to go for a quick two and then foul in that spot. He didn't, James Anderson turned the ball over, and then, after another two Tech free throws put the Jackets up five, Ford again didn't call timeout, even as his charges struggled to find an open look (Anderson ended up taking an impossible jumper). The season's on the line, coach. Do your job.

Also, does Keiton Page look like Ollie from Hoosiers or what?

#5 Michigan State 70, #12 New Mexico State 67 (Midwest)

The Aggies found themselves on the wrong end of two questionable decisions by the referees in the final seconds, leading SI's Luke Winn to tweet immediately following the game that they had been given a rawer deal than Robert Morris against Villanova on Thursday.

The first was a lane violation on a Raymar Morgan free throw with 19 seconds left. Troy Gillenwater was ruled to have stepped in the lane early on Morgan's miss, giving Morgan a reprieve, of which he quickly took advantage. Video replay after the game showed the call to be technically correct, but I still have problems with the call. For one, you see lane violations far more often than you see lane violations called, and this particular situation seems like an odd place to start being a stickler for the rules.

The second problem I have with the call goes to the heart of why stepping into the lane early is illegal, for which I can think of two justifications: To prevent distracting the shooter, and to prevent one player from gaining an unfair advantage on the rebound. Neither was a concern in this instance. Gillenwater's violation could hardly be discerned (I certainly didn't notice it while watching live); it wasn't a demonstrative hop-in, hop-out. I doubt Morgan noticed it at all. To the other point, Gillenwater had to re-establish himself outside the lane, and thus did not gain any advantage. If anything, he probably was into the lane for the rebound a fraction of a second later than he would have otherwise.

Speaking of fractions of a second, the second late call that went against NMSU came after they missed a shot on the ensuing possession, with the rebound going out of bounds off the Spartans. The clock showed just three-tenths of a second remaining, and NMSU appealed for the referees to check the tape to make sure they the clock was right. The refs declined to do so, even though it seemed clear to me watching live that the clock had briefly continued to run after the ball had touched out of bounds. (Indeed, video replay confirmed after the game that there should have been an additional three-tenths, for six-tenths total.)

It seems silly to quibble over three-tenths of a second, and most of the time, it is. The one exception, however, is when the added time would take the game clock from three-tenths of a second or less to more than three-tenths. Why? Because the powers that be in basketball have scientifically, though not altogether convincingly, decided that you cannot catch and shoot a basketball in less than four-tenths of a second. So going from .3 to .6 would have given the Aggies more of a chance to score on that final possession.

What's particularly obnoxious about this is that the officials often go to the tape in this situations, and they didn't this time. I'd like to see a more uniform system, even if it's something small like "automatically check the tape when the clock has three-tenths or less." NMSU coach Marvin Menzies was frantically appealing for the officials to review the tape. The problem with allowing a coach to ask for such a review is that the ensuing delay effectively serves as a timeout, something Menzies didn't have at his disposal. That would then be an incentive to automatically ask for a review even when one clearly wasn't warranted.

Anyway, I thought this was plainly a bad job by the officials. I also felt that the Spartans got the benefit of a few tough calls down the stretch even before the final 20 seconds.

Day Two Picks

2010-03-19T09:02:00.000-07:00

West Virginia over Morgan State

Temple over Cornell

Missouri over Clemson

Wisconsin over Wofford

Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech

Michigan State over New Mexico State

Ohio State over UCSB

Houston over Maryland

Siena over Purdue

Utah State over Texas A&M

Duke over Arkansas-Pine Bluff

California over Louisville

Xavier over Minnesota

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Gonzaga over Florida State

Syracuse over Vermont

Thoughts on an Amazing First Day

2010-03-19T00:01:00.000-07:00

What an incredible day! If you're reading this, you probably care enough to know more or less what happened -- and a lot happened -- so this won't be a recap as much as it will be a collection of more or less random thoughts, organized by game, as I frantically monitored the action on CBS and March Madness on Demand (MMOD).

#14 Ohio 97, #3 Georgetown 83 (Midwest)

#11 Old Dominion 50, #6 Notre Dame 50 (South)

#11 Washington 80, #6 Marquette 78 (East)

As I think I mentioned in my preview of the Midwest region, in justifying picking Georgetown to advance to the Elite 8, the toughest calls every tournament prognosticator has to make is how to handle teams that maybe underachieved for most of the season, but made a charge late in the season and/or during the conference tournament to nab a tournament bid or a better seed. The challenge is that the momentum these teams have built up tends to dissipate over the four or five days between Selection Sunday and the first round, and you have to decide which version of the team is the "real" one.

I had decided that Georgetown had turned a corner of sorts during its run to the Big East title game, that Notre Dame was way over-seeded after playing its way from out of the tournament to a #6 in just two or three weeks, and that Washington, winners of seven straight games (including the Pac 10 tournament) had found its footing as the team everyone expected them to be at the start of the season. Two out of three ain't bad.

As someone who takes pride in his ability to be realistic about the tournament, I am a little embarrassed that I fell into the Georgetown trap. In my defense, from what I understand (didn't see too much of this one) Ohio's blowout was more about the Bobcats than it was about the Hoyas. In order to pick a first-round upset of a #3 seed, you need to have confidence in the opponent, and I'm not sure how anyone could have had that much faith in a team that finished 9th in the MAC regular season. But behind the brilliance of Indiana transfer Armon Bassett and freshman D.J. Cooper, the Bobcats shot 58 percent for the game, made 13 of 23 three-pointers, and stunned the Hoyas.

On the other hand, I correctly predicted Notre Dame to lose and had Washington advancing. The former is a classic instance of the principle mentioned above; not only was Notre Dame over-seeded, they were facing Old Dominion, which won a very tough CAA tournament and beat Georgetown on the road in December. Washington edged out Marquette, another team whose seed may have been inflated by a series of late, close wins. The Huskies, with talented lightning bug guards Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton, along with legitimate NBA talent Quincy Pondexter (the author of the game-winning shot, a big-time drive and leaner past Jimmy Butler) definitely have the talent to make a lot more noise in this Dance.

#13 Murray State 66, #4 Vanderbilt 65 (West)

I just said that it's not enough to think a favored team is bad or overrated in order to pick them to lose in the first round, but that's kind of what I did with the Commodores. The Racers had enough going for them -- 30 wins; an impressive 17-1 run in the Ohio Valley, the support of President Obama, and the emotional angle of a reserve player's mother being killed in a car accident earlier in the week -- but really, my pick in this game was that Vandy just hasn't impressed me. They didn't impress anyone today. Credit Danero Thomas for hitting a tough pull-up over two guys at the horn to win it, but it did look to me like those two defenders got crossed up at a crucial moment, allowing Thomas to free himself, rise, and fire.

#7 BYU 99, #10 Florida 92 (2 OT) (West)

This barnburner got the whole thing started. Two players won it for the Cougars, who survived Florida possessions with the score tied at the end of both regulation and the first overtime. The first was Jimmer Fredette, who had 37 points. Fredette is a big-time scorer, but this was my first look at him, and I came away very impressed. The guy is incredibly crafty in the lane and around the rim, varying his timing and release points to throw off shotblockers' rhythms. There's chatter that he might slip into the first round of next summer's NBA Draft, though his physical gifts are not the stuff of most NBA first-rounders. His craftiness and lack of NBA size and quickness remind me a little bit of Davidson's Stephen Curry, who's enjoying a fantastic rookie season in Golden State running Don Nelson's high-octane offense. But Curry's brilliance comes from his ability to create enough space to get off his polished jumpshot, which is an entirely different story than coming up with ways to get by quicker guys your size and then finish over and around guys who are eight or ten inches taller than you. I understand that Fredette can hit the deep ball, and I'll be on the lookout for it when they face Kansas State in the second round.

The other key Cougar was Michael Loyd Jr., a junior who averaged less than five points a game this year but had 26 against the Gators. Loyd took over during two key stretches; a 2:15 streak in the first half during which he went on his own personal 10-0 to bring BYU from down seven to up three; and then late in the first overtime and throughout the second, hitting key free throws. This is a delicate point to make, but it was certainly interesting to watch Loyd, the rare black BYU player, come in and boost a struggling Cougar team during that important stretch in the first half. I can only assume that Loyd is Mormon, given that he's from Vegas and goes to BYU (yes, Las Vegas has a large Mormon community) and it was hard not to imagine this scenario playing out when Loyd was younger, single-handedly leading a bunch of unassuming kids to victory.

One red flag I wanted to point out about BYU is how terribly they handled the end game on multiple occasions today (when you go to double overtime, you have multiple end game situations). At the end of the first overtime, with the score tied and the shotclock off, Fredette took off dribbling into the front court, then slowed and quite casually tried to move laterally among a number of Gator players. He was stripped, and if Florida had been able to convert, that would have been the game. Then, in the second overtime, when BYU seemingly had the game in hand, Loyd needlessly pushed the ball on multiple occassions and was fortunate to turn it over. They'll have to be more careful in crunch time against Kansas State.

#9 Wake Forest 81, #8 Texas 80 (OT) (East)

Kind of a fitting end to an incredibly frustrating season for the Longhorns. I watched this game intermittently (my TV was tuned to Tennessee-San Diego State for most of it) and every time I looked, it appeared that Texas was playing great defense but not getting anything to fall on the offensive end. Hell, I saw Dexter Pittman miss two shots from one foot late in regulation, and I also saw Avery Bradley save any chance of victory by making an incredible block on an Ish Smith breakaway with a minute or so to go. After a frantic end to regulation, which saw a no-call on what I thought was a clear Wake foul on a dunk attempt, followed by a traveling call on the ensuing inbounds pass, and then one of two for Texas to tie the score, it looked like the Longhorns would prevail, going up eight in overtime while capitalizing on Wake Forest turnovers. Missed free throws and a failure to control the defensive glass, however, paved the way for Smith's game winning jumper with about a second and a half left.

It's widely believed that locker room issues derailed what was once a promising season (remember, the 'horns won their first 17 games and were at one point ranked #1 in the country). And I couldn't help but notice that after Smith's dagger, Texas coach Rick Barnes had a timeout but didn't use it. Sure, it was worth nothing but a Hail Mary, but a lot can happen in under two seconds, like a foul or a basket. I'm not saying he did it on purpose, but symbolically, it was almost as if Barnes wanted the season to be over.

#2 Villanova 73, #15 Robert Morris 70 (OT) (South)

From what I understand, the officials gave this one to the Wildcats, bailing out Scottie Reynolds again and again in the final few minutes of regulation. That's a shame, because from what little I saw, the Colonials played with a ton of moxie. Plus, 15 over 2 upsets are rare (only four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985) and rare is always fun. Oh well. Hard to complain with everything else we got today.

For Villanova fans and those whose brackets depend on the Wildcats winning a few more games, remember that Villanova did this last year, advancing to the Final Four after trailing American by 14 early in the second half. That game was all I could think of today as I tracked the score, figuring that 'nova would eventually turn it on. Then it started to get late, then really late, and I didn't think they'd pull it off. They did, but just barely.

#10 St. Mary's 80, #7 Richmond 71 (South)

I was right that the Spiders' Kevin Anderson would prove to be nothing special (16 points, 4 assists, no resistance when the game started to get out of hand), but I was wrong when I said that the Gaels' Omar Samhan would disappoint. I don't know if he reads 19-9 or what, but he dominated with 29 points and 12 boards, leading his team to a remarkable 40-17 edge on the glass. And he did it despite being saddled with a little bit of foul trouble. Well done, Omar.

Here's the thing, though: My contention is that Samhan's stats are inflated because his 6-11, 260-pound frame is simply too big for most West Coast Conference foes. Richmond, out of the Atlantic 10, doesn't have that major conference size, either. So I'm not sure how much Samhan's performance on Thursday really proves. I'm not sure how much we can take from whatever Samhan might do against Villanova, either. The Wildcats are a Big East team, the bruisiest of conferences, but they are perimeter-oriented. They have some big bodies, but their two tallest kids are freshman, and one is the wispy Maurice Sutton. A random canvass of Villanova's games this year shows 29-14 and 19-8 (including 11-of-14 from the line) performances from Georgetown's Greg Monroe, for example.

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #8 UNLV 66 (Midwest)

#6 Tennessee 62, #11 San Diego State 59 (Midwest)

These games are only related in that I disagree with the way UNLV and Tennessee defended their respective opponents' final possession, and they did in a similar way.

With the game tied and just over a shotclock remaining, UNLV stayed in the trapping halfcourt defense that had forced a couple of turnovers and bad shots late. While I generally think it's a good idea to not let the team holding for one shot just dribble out the clock and get the ball to whoever they want, I do think this is a risky tactic, for two reasons. The first reason is that it's easy to accidentally foul, as UNLV did and were fortunate enough to have officials let slide (although given the ultimate result of the play, they'd have been better off had the refs blown the whistle on one of the two bumps that occurred 35 feet from the bucket). The second is that such a defense often leaves individuals open, and if those individuals get the ball, they'll often have a clean look at the basket. That's what happened with UNI; after some tense moments on the perimeter, the ball swung to Ali Farokhmanesh, a career 37 percent three-point shooter who buried a 25-footer over a late challenge with under five seconds to go.

Tennessee was up three under ten seconds after nailing two free throws and chose to harass SDSU as the Aztecs brought it up court. Forcing them to run time off the clock is good, but SDSU got a decent look from a very similar spot to where Farokhmanesh hit his shot. Credit Wayne Chism for making a quick recovery and an athletic challenge without fouling.

My problem here is that inside 27 feet or so, an open look is almost always a better shot for most college players than one off the dribble. So if I'm a coach, I don't want anyone spotting up to win or tie the game. Given that it's very difficult to trap for most of a possession and then fall into a more traditional defense at the end of the clock, I think the better move is to put a little less pressure on the ball.

#3 New Mexico 62, #14 Montana 57

Still don't know much of anything about the Lobos, as I was watching Tennessee-SDSU and Wake Forest-Texas throughout much of this one. Nothing too impressive from UNM, but the fight from the Grizzlies is even more impressive given that Anthony Johnson, he of the 42-point game in the Big Sky championship, scored six points and hit just one of 12 shots. As Mark from Sham Sports tweeted after the game, however: "Why did Anthony Johnson have 42 in the [Big Sky] Championship game and an 0-for tonight? Because Weber St. were small and unathletic, like him." Hear, hear.

#5 Butler 77, #12 UTEP 59 (West)

Called it, didn't see it, still don't expect the Bulldogs to have much trouble with Murray State in the second round.

#3 Baylor 68, #14 Sam Houston State 59 (South)

Called it, didn't see it, still expect that Baylor will get bounced by Old Dominion in the second round.

#1 Kentucky 100, #16 East Tennessee State 71 (East)

#1 Kansas 90, #16 Lehigh 74 (Midwest)

#2 Kansas State 82, #15 North Texas 62 (West)

Congratulations to the Wildcats, Jayhawks, and, um, Wildcats, for winning comfortably on a day when so many teams that should have, didn't. This is the first time I can remember that I didn't have to watch a second of a 1/16 or 2/15 matchup on one of the first two days of the tournament -- a combination of being on the West Coast, where there are no top seeds this year, and the great slate of games.

This tournament has already met my expectations for everything I want out of March Madness. I don't expect an improvement, but hopefully we can keep the close games coming.

Day One Picks

2010-03-18T09:27:00.000-07:00

Kentucky over East Tennessee State

Washington over Marquette

Texas over Wake Forest

New Mexico over Montana

UNLV over Northern Iowa

Georgetown over Ohio

Kansas over Lehigh

San Diego State over Tennessee

Old Dominion over Notre Dame

Villanova over Robert Morris

Baylor over Sam Houston State

Richmond over St. Mary's

BYU over Florida

Murray State over Vanderbilt

Kansas State over North Texas

Butler over UTEP

West breakdown

2010-03-17T20:38:00.000-07:00

The last of four regional breakdowns heading into the NCAA tournament, which tips Thursday.

(Midwest | East | South)

* I have a long history with Syracuse. Growing up in a state without a major conference program and attending undergrad at a Patriot League school, there's no power conference team that is natural for me to root for. With that said, I grew up with only the Big East on CBS to slake my college basketball thirst, and the Orange seemed to be on every Saturday back then. As a result, I've always had a soft spot for Jim Boeheim's bunch.

Back in 2002-2003 (the Carmelo Anthony year), I said I thought that Syracuse had a real shot to win the national title (which, of course, they eventually did). That's the only time I've ever said that, so I took real notice when I found myself thinking the same thing while watching the 'cuse earlier this year. Now, I'm not so sure. Syracuse has an outstanding team, a squad that complements each other well and has real chemistry. But the last several minutes of their Big East quarterfinal loss to Georgetown revealed a real problem for the Orange; namely, where does the ball going during crunch time?

Arinze Onuaku's knee injury didn't help matters, but he's really not a guy you'd expect Syracuse to go to late. There are basically three options for that role on this team. Wesley Johnson, the transfer from Iowa State, has had an All-America quality year, but part of his effectiveness is that he doesn't need the ball to affect a game. He often ends up with the ball, but he's not the kind of guy you run a play for when you need a basket. Scoop Jardine, who technically backs up Brandon Triche but is the effective starting point guard in that he plays most of the end-game in close contests, is more than willing to take the ball in his hands late, but for all his improvement this season, he still needs to be reined in a bit. And Andy Rautins, who I considered the most reliable of the options, made several bad decisions as the Hoyas took the lead and then completely disappeared for the last seven minutes.

The 'cuse should have more than enough to get by Vermont in the first round (though it will be fun to watch UVM's Marqus Blakely try to find the open areas in SU's vaunted 2-3 zone). But beginning with a second-round matchup against either Gonzaga or Florida State, Syracuse won't have a sure thing the rest of the way. They're not in a terribly difficult bracket, but given Onuaku's balky leg and the fact that they only go seven deep anyway, there's precious little margin for error. I expect them to go down in the regional final, should they make it that far, to Kansas State and its pair of go-to guys, Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

* Without having seen much of New Mexico, I can't say for sure that Pittsburgh is the weakest #3 in the tournament field, but to me, the Panthers top a relatively long list of over-seeded teams in this region, including Vanderbilt and Butler. I don't expect any of those three to survive the first weekend, with the latter two in real danger of losing their first-round matchups (to Murray State and UTEP, respectively).

* I'm not really sure what Florida is doing in the tournament. They are 21-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC, but with a number of close wins, including one at NC State in which a guy hit like a 75-footer at the horn to win. They have a mid-50s RPI, one spot lower than Mississippi State, to whom the Gators lost in the SEC semifinals. Their strength of schedule is a bit better than the Bulldogs', and that's surely what gave them a bid over MSU. But I didn't see anyone with Florida in their projected brackets on Selection Sunday, and I certainly don't have them in my second round.

Back tomorrow morning with quick picks for the day.

South breakdown

2010-03-17T02:56:00.000-07:00

Soldiering on with random thoughts on each region of the upcoming NCAA tournament.

(Midwest | East)

* Frankly, I find this region kind of boring, and I'm struggling to find things to write about. The consensus seems to be that the road is paved for top-seeded Duke to make the Final Four. With arguably the field's weakest #2 and #4 seeds, the selection committee certainly didn't make life overly tough on the Blue Devils. This Duke team is the most complete in years, though they are heavily reliant on Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith. But in Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers, the Devils have at least something resembling a frontcourt. They are the favorites to come out of this region, and I don't see much standing in their way.

* Villanova may not have deserved the #2 seed it got. They lost five of their last seven games and I don't think anyone who watched the two teams at the end of the year could honestly say that the Wildcats were better than Georgetown. Given, however, that the Hoyas finished the regular season with the eighth-best record in the Big East and that the group of #3 seeds is otherwise pretty weak, perhaps Villanova simply got their seed by default.

Underestimating 'nova teams under Jay Wright has been risky business in the tournament, however, and he's got his usual guard-driven attack. Scottie Reynolds has grown up as much as anyone in the country, and they have a bunch of really good perimeter players. The real difference between this team and the one that advanced to the national semifinals is that they are missing Dante Cunningham, but just as there aren't a lot of obstacles for Duke, there aren't that many for Villanova. A matchup with Duke in the regional final would pit Wildcat swingman Taylor King against his old team.

* Other than Villanova, the teams that might give the Blue Devils the most trouble play each other in the first round. I saw California when they came down to LA to play USC, and little Jerome Randle is as good a player I've seen this year. Louisville has had its ups and downs, but those ups include beating Syracuse twice. I give the slight edge to Cal, because the Bears are experienced and consistent on the perimeter, whereas the Cardinals, particularly Edgar Sosa, are up and down.

* One team that might have challenged Duke is Purdue. Up until a few weeks ago, the Boilers were in contention for a top seed themselves, but a season-ending knee injury to Robbie Hummel sent them stumbling down the stretch. Whether their high seed is reflective of the committee's opinion of Purdue's potential without Hummel or more of a result of their actual performance (they scored 11 points in the first half of a 27-point loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten semifinals) is unclear, but they are certainly a different and less intimidating team than they were in January. Siena, their first-round opponent, is a popular upset pick, and even without knowing anything about the MAAC champions other than they were something of a darkhorse to start the year, it's a selection I'm tempted to make, just based on Purdue's recent struggles.

* Notre Dame is as interesting as any team in the tournament. Never known for their defense, the Irish were forced to slow their tempo way down and focus on locking the opposition up when Luke Harangody went down late in the year. ND responded with six straight wins -- including two over Pittsburgh and one over Georgetown -- before narrowly losing to West Virginia in the Big East quarters.

Harangody has been back for the last few games, but this is very much a "new' Notre Dame team, with Harangody even still coming off the bench. What's interesting about them is that unlike most grind-it-out teams, about which you worry about falling behind in a tournament setting and then not having the firepower to catch up, the Irish are theoretically the same team that was lighting up the scoreboard earlier in the year. An ability to switch styles, if necessary, might come in handy. They have their work cut out for them, however, first against an Old Dominion team that beat Georgetown in December, and then probably a very explosive Baylor squad.

* A quick note about the 7/10 game between Richmond and St. Mary's: Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and Gaels center Omar Samhan both aren't as good as people will tell you leading up to this game. Anderson is quick and explosive but makes too many bad decisions; Samhan is slow and unathletic and relies on major conference size to excel in a mid-major conference. These two teams seem to be the darlings of many prognosticators, but I don't see either of them really challenging Villanova in the second round.

East Breakdown

2010-03-15T23:58:00.000-07:00

Continuing on with region-by-region analysis of the upcoming NCAA Tournament, here's a look at the South. (Other regions: Midwest)

* Any analysis of this region has to start with its #1 seed, Kentucky. The Wildcats have more top-end talent than just about anyone in the tournament, with three players projected to go in the lottery of this summer's NBA Draft. It's balanced top-talent, too, with an attack led by lead guard John Wall and fortified by freshman DeMarcus Cousins (6-11, 270) and junior Patrick Patterson (6-8, 223).

There are significant question marks surrounding UK, however. Coach John Calipari favors a drive-and-kick offense that showcases Wall's considerable talent, but works best with a sharpshooting squad. Kentucky, however, is a decidedly middling outside shooting team, hitting just 34.4 percent of its three-pointers on the season (good for a tie for 166th out of 347 Division I teams). Moreover, free-throw shooting -- an Achilles heel of Calipari's teams at Memphis that cost him the 2008 national championship -- is also a problem for the 'cats. Kentucky is a below-average team from the charity stripe, hitting 69 percent of its attempts, which ranks 207th in the nation. Free throw shooting nearly cost them Sunday's SEC championship game against Mississippi State. Poor shooting from behind the arc and from the free throw line is not the stuff of successful tournament runs.

That game against Mississippi State also raised questions about the team's ability to perform in crunch time. Kentucky won a couple of close games against big name programs at the beginning of the year, but those wins against North Carolina and Connecticut look a lot less impressive when you consider that both those teams aren't in the field of 65 this year. Tournament games have a different atmosphere, and without a significant player on the roster who has played in the NCAAs -- remember, the Wildcats uncharacteristically struggled during Billy Gillispie's two-year stint at the helm -- observers are justified in questioning them when it comes to winning time. The ball will undoubtedly go to Wall in those situations, but Wall doesn't rise to the level of "if there's one guy I could have with the ball when I absolutely needed a basket, it'd be him" the way Calipari's most recent lead guards at Memphis did. That's not a knock on the kid -- Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans are remarkable players -- but I do think Wall is overrated. He didn't exactly instill confidence down the stretch against Mississippi State, short-arming an easy shot that would have given his team the lead with 10 seconds left, then leaving a game-winning three-pointer well short. If Jarvis Varnado had boxed out or otherwise prevented Cousins from grabbing Wall's last miss and sticking it back, Wall never would have had the opportunity to redeem himself by tossing in a ridiculous, off-balance three-pointer at the end of the shot clock late in regulation that sealed the SEC crown and MSU's NIT bid -- a shot that he quite simply got lucky on.

* Yes, Kentucky is beatable. Who can or will do it, however, remains an open question. Texas, the #8 seed and a potential second-round opponent for the Wildcats, no doubt will tempt more than a few prognosticators. The Longhorns entered the season with high expectations, won their first 17 games -- including convincing neutral site victories over Pittsburgh and Michigan State -- and earned the top spot in the weekly polls. Almost immediately upon ascending to #1, however, they tripped up, losing on the road to Kansas State, which in itself isn't a big deal, except that it triggered a finish to the season that saw Texas go 7-9 the rest of the way. The Longhorns have only won back-to-back games once since January 16, and their only "good" wins since that time have been two against Oklahoma State. With the exception of a loss to Oklahoma in Norman, none of their losses are particularly bad, either, but combine their inconsistent play with the fact that they've lost a couple of key players to injury throughout the year, and you can make the case that the Longhorns are actually over-seeded.

With that all said, Texas is experienced and rugged. They don't have quite as much size as Kentucky, but they are willing to bang, which combined with experience goes a long way in the college game. I worry about how they'd fare if Kentucky chooses to push the tempo -- which they undoubtedly will -- because with injuries to Varez Ward and Dogus Balbay, the Longhorns have significant issues at the lead guard spot.

I haven't decided for sure yet, but I'm tempted to advance the Longhorns here. What's giving me pause is the fact that I don't have a great track record with teams that underachieve towards the end of the year, which Texas has clearly done.

* In order for Texas to face Kentucky, of course, they'll need to move past Wake Forest, which they should do. I only mention the Demon Deacons to address what I understand is a controversy over Wake's inclusion in the field over Virginia Tech. The Hokies, at 23-8 overall and 10-6 in the ACC, were probably in the field of 65 until Houston and New Mexico State won their conference tournaments, leading the committee to award at-large bids to UTEP and Utah State. The Hokies' schedule ranked something like 339th out of 347 Division I teams, which is pretty remarkable when you consider that they are in a power conference and forced to play at least a couple of games against elite teams.

There are a couple of arguments that people seem to be making in favor of Va. Tech. The one that relates to Wake is that the Hokies beat the Deacs on February 16. First of all, that's never been how the selection committee operates. Secondly, I'm sorry, but a four-point win on your home floor is not enough to convince me that you're better than whoever you played.

The second argument is that no ten-win ACC team has been left out of the tournament since it was expanded to include 64 teams in 1985, and that it's particularly fishy this year, considering how bad the Pac 10 is (it only got two bids, so theoretically, there are a handful more at-large bids available this year than most years). For starters, this argument ignores the strength of conferences like the Mountain West (four bids) and Atlantic 10 (3 bids) relative to other years, as well as the presence of a strong crop of non-BCS types that slipped up in their conference title games. It also ignores the relative weakness of the ACC, which, despite its six bids, is in my estimation rather weak this year. (Duke's elite, Maryland's okay, the rest are kind of blah).

I generally try not to take sides in these types of arguments, choosing instead to focus on whether the snubbed team did all it could be expected to do. And the Hokies didn't pass that test. What's really annoying about this entire argument is that this isn't the first time this has happened to VT under Seth Greenberg; if memory serves, we've been having a similar conversation about the Hokies three out of the last four years. If you want an NCAA bid, you need to schedule somebody out of conference. Virginia Tech might be better than Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, but without a non-conference win like WF's over Gonzaga or a signature conference victory over Duke or Maryland, they don't have much of an argument.

* I've spent a lot of space talking about just a few teams, and that's because I just don't know too much about a ton of teams in this region. Cornell is a fascinating #12 seed, and the #5 they're matched up with, Temple, is supposed to be very good. The #3, New Mexico, was perhaps in line for a #2 until tripping up in the Mountain West semis. Wisconsin, Clemson, and Missouri are probably solid, as they always are. I just haven't seen or heard enough about them this year to make informed opinions.

* One very intriguing first-round matchup, however, is the 6/11 pitting Marquette against Washington. Marquette has probably played more close games than anyone in the country this year, with mixed results. They started Big East play 1-3, beating Georgetown by three while losing to West Virginia, Villanova, and Villanova again by a combined five points. They turned their fortunes around at the end of the year, however, winning three straight overtime games in the last week of February (though against decidely inferior opposition) before crushing Louisville and then losing another OT game to Notre Dame in the regular season finale. Marquette got its revenge against 'nova in the Big East quarterfinals, playing its way into a good seed.

Washington, on the other hand, started the season ranked in the top half of the Top 25 (I can't find my copy of the college basketball preview issue, but I want to say Sports Illustrated had the Huskies ranked in the top ten to start the year) and then really struggled. Given the high seed given to them by the committee, they probably needed the win over Cal in the Pac 10 championship game to get a bid to the tourney. Other than a few segments of that game, the only time I've seen Washington this year is when they came to LA and got absolutely hammered by USC (two nights after narrowly losing to an under-achieving UCLA team). Lorenzo Romar's squad has the talent to make some noise in this tournament, though its focused heavily in the backcourt and on the wing. That shouldn't be a problem against Marquette, and as I said, I don't really know it's going to be a problem against New Mexico (though ESPN's Joe Lunardi says it isn't.) But it might be an issue should U-Dub advance to play Kentucky -- a tall task for an 11 seed, but certainly not out of the question this year.

* Finally, I should talk about West Virginia, a team I've avoided just because I have a hard time figuring them out. They seem to find themselves in a ton of close games, either because they start slow and have to rally or have a big lead and then give it up. The thing is, no matter how they get there, they seem to win those close games, in large part due to Da'Sean Butler. Butler's game-winners against Cincinnati and Georgetown in the Big East tournament were his fifth and sixth such shots of the season -- making him the college version of Kobe Bryant.

I never know what to make of teams like this, whether their luck will run out or the experience in close games will be helpful in the tournament atmosphere. And I still don't. I want to pick them to advance out of the region, but I'm not terribly keen on taking a team that seems so dependent on one player. Sorry folks, but this one's still up in the air.

Midwest Breakdown

2010-03-14T21:55:00.001-07:00

Almost a year since my last post, and I haven't watched nearly as much college basketball this season as I have in previous years, but Championship Week gave me the itch, so I'm going to try to keep this going throughout the tournament, then keep this going a bit better next year, or find a way to consolidate all my basketball writing into one place (in case you don't know, I have a Celtics/NBA blog called Rhymes With Hondo).

So, to that end, I'll be breaking down each of the four regions, one per day, for the next four days. I'm not necessarily going to go team-by-team or even game-by-game. I don't actually have a format in mind. I just want to rap a little bit about some of the stuff I've seen.

Might as well start in the Midwest region, home of the tournament's top overall seed, the Kansas Jayhawks:

* Kansas was my pick to win it all at the beginning of the year, and I'm standing firm. Frankly, I haven't been overwhelmed by what I've seen of the Jayhawks, but no team has really impressed me this year. I'll mention the other contenders' flaws when I write about them and their regions, but, in a bit of foreshadowing, I like the Jayhawks' veteran leadership. Not that Bill Self's club is terribly long in the tooth -- the Morris kids are sophomores and Xavier Henry is a freshman -- but it does have Sherron Collins, the person not named Mario Chalmers who is most responsible for Kansas' win in the 2008 national championship game. (Remember his steal/three combo that cut a seven-point lead to four with less than two minutes to go?) Collins gives Kansas a definitive place to go with the ball in crunch-time, and that sets them apart from other title contenders. Kentucky and Syracuse have shown recent chinks in the armor in that regard (more on that when I tackle their respective regions), and I'm not convinced that Duke's Jon Scheyer is the same caliber of player in terms of both scoring and creating for others. On the two-line, Ohio State's Evan Turner and West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler have proven over and over that they are as "go-to" as can be, but their respective supporting casts aren't as strong as Collins'.

* Not that the Jayhawks won't have plenty of competition on their way to Indianapolis. Many analysts feel that the selection committee didn't do the tourney's top team any favors by giving them the toughest draw of any of the top seeds. In addition to Ohio State, which some felt heading into Sunday would have had a chance at a #1 seed if the Big11Ten final was played earlier (a notion somewhat dispelled by the fact that the committee gave Duke the third overall seed and make Syracuse -- which had been in line for a #1 for months -- the fourth overall), the Midwest also has the tournament's top #3 seed (Georgetown), top #6 (Tennessee), and a #5, Michigan State, that was on everyone's short list of national title contenders at the start of the year.

* I think Georgetown is the team most likely to trip up the Jayhawks. The Hoyas had kind of an up-and-down year, caused at least in part by playing a conference schedule which included four road games at teams ranked in the top ten at the time. The Big East was loaded this year, and so every team played some degree of a killer schedule, but it doesn't get any tougher than a slate that included two games against both Syracuse and Villanova, plus road trips to West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

Georgetown entered the Big East tournament losers of four of their last six, then played their way to a 3 seed by beating South Florida, Syracuse, and Marquette, before losing at the horn to West Virginia in the championship game. There's something of an unwritten rule among bracketologists to be wary of a team whose low seed is a result of a late stretch of strong play. I'm choosing to ignore that in this case, because I feel Georgetown's ascension was a result not of hot shooting and the like, but a real transformation. Early in the Hoyas' victory over Syracuse in the Big East quarters, ESPN's announcing crew noted that coach John Thompson III was riding his guys more than usual, and he kept it up throughout the tournament. His charges responded, most notably point guard Chris Wright, who took charge of the offense in a way that reminded me of Derrick Rose at Memphis two years ago.

My favorite Wright play of the four games actually came after he made a stupid one; giving a foul in the final minute of the championship game with his team tied with West Virginia (he must have thought the Hoyas were behind). After the Mountaineers hit two free throws, Wright simply took the ball, powered past the very powerful Joe Mazzulla, and banked in an off-balance shot. Butler would break Georgetown's hearts on the next trip, Wright's was a new-found confidence, one we hadn't consistently seen and one his team desperately needed.

Not that he's alone in Hoya grey. Far from it. The marvelously-skilled Greg Monroe is the perfect big man for JT3's Princeton-inspired offense, and is garnering a lot of attention from pro scouts despite the fact that said system doesn't exactly showcase big guys doing the kind of things NBA types like to see out of post players. There are question marks surrounding Austin Freeman -- he's been good, but not as good as he had been, since he was diagnosed with diabetes at the beginning of the month -- but he's the kind of player who can put on a virtuoso scoring performance any time he steps on the floor. Depth is a concern, but with Jason Clark (42.6 percent) and Hollis Thompson (42.4 percent) knocking down threes and Julian Vaughn doing the dirty work inside, Georgetown has a rotation that should be able to compete with anyone.

* I'll have my game-by-game predictions up before the tip day of, but one trap I'm pretty sure I won't be falling into is picking Georgia Tech to win anything more than their first round matchup with Oklahoma State. I haven't seen enough of the Cowboys to say whether they have enough size to counter the Yellow Jackets' bigs or the pressure defense to take advantage of GT's shaky ballhandling, but Georgia Tech looked about as unimpressive as a team can look on its way to the ACC championship game. (I actually tweeted the following during their quarterfinal win over Maryland: "If it's possible to hurt your NCAA chances in a win over the #19 team, Georgia Tech just did it.") I kinda think the committee agrees with me a little bit, awarding the Jackets only a ten seed despite their run to the championship game. While I was occupied with the A-10 and SEC finals today during Tech's late run against Duke, their inability to protect the ball against the Terrapins (25 turnovers) and their struggle to beat a very underwhelming NC State team doesn't have me very high on their chances to advance past the first weekend.

* This region has a number of teams that are more or less one-man bands. As mentioned, Turner carries Ohio State, but not as much as Greivis Vasquez carries Maryland. And while Houston beat UTEP in the Conference USA championship game despite getting only 13 points from Aubrey Coleman, the Cougars belong to Coleman, the nation's scoring leader. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch those two go at it in the first round.

Along those same lines, the Midwest bracket is something of an artistic masterpiece by the committee. There's something about it that is symmetrical, yet perfectly diverse about it. Thoroughbreds in the top and bottom half of the bracket (Kansas and Ohio State). The hot, trendy pick to make the Final Four (Georgetown). The struggling power conference team (Michigan State), the slighted power conference team (Tennessee), and the gritty, grind-it-out mid-major (Northern Iowa). Multiple teams dependent on a single individual player. Two teams (UNLV and San Diego State) from a relatively obscure, but strong this year, conference (the four-bid Mountain West. And two or three teams (New Mexico State, Houston, and maybe San Diego State) whose victories in their conference tournaments cost Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, and Illinois their bids (since Utah State, UTEP, and UNLV got at-large invitations that the Aggies, Cougars, and possibly the Aztecs wouldn't otherwise have gotten).

There's a lot going on here, and there are a lot of teams I simply cannot comment on because I haven't seen them play. For now, it suffices to say I've got Kansas coming out of the region and ultimately winning the whole thing -- the latter by default, really.

Tar Heels Win It All

2009-04-06T21:50:00.000-07:00

You didn't really think Michigan State could do it, did you?

Somewhere along the way this season, we forgot how good North Carolina was. It wasn't one single thing, it was more likely a cumulation of factors. It started back in January, when Carolina lost Marcus Ginyard, the best defender on a team whose defense was its main weakness. Then came the back-to-back losses to start the ACC season, to Boston College and Wake Forest. Then a loss to Maryland. Then Ty Lawson's toe injury, which seemed like it might keep him from playing at full strength in the postseason. Then the early exit from the ACC tournament at the hands of Florida State, without Lawson. The Heels looked mortal.

And the Spartans did their part to keep the doubts alive, getting better with each game in the tournament. After shaky victories against Southern California and Kansas, Michigan State fairly dominated its next two opponents, teams they weren't expected to beat; Louisville, the tournament's top overall seed, and Connecticut, the one team that seemed to have the firepower to take out North Carolina.

Monday's championship game was played at Ford Field in Detroit, and it was easy to get caught up in the possibility that home-state advantage would carry Michigan State. The scenario had seemingly endless feel-good storylines: the thirtieth anniversary of Bird v. Magic; the national championship won by the home team in a state whose professional football team set a record for futility this year and whose economy has been hit the hardest of any.

Given all of this, it was easy to forget about December 3, 2008, when Carolina, after winning the Maui Invitational in impressive fashion, truly flexed its muscle. The Heels positively throttled the Spartans that night, winning 98-65 in Michigan, on the same court on which the championship game would be played four months later. That night, it sure didn't look like anyone could beat North Carolina, and if anyone could, it certainly wasn't going to be Michigan State.

All of those doubts went away in about four-and-a-half minutes on Monday night, during which the Heels scored 17 points and took a double-digit lead they never gave up. Accepting the championship trophy on the podium, UNC coach Roy Williams noted that "everyone had anointed" his team all year long. And it's true. We all just temporarily forgot.

***

On to more serious matters. After tonight's telecast, I learned -- along with millions of other CBS viewers -- that the man behind the network's trademark "One Shining Moment" video montage, played at the close of every NCAA Tournament, was named Doug Towey, and that he had passed away earlier this year.

The significance of this video is not lost on any college basketball fan, and certainly not lost on any kid who grew up with dreams of playing college basketball. My high school teammates and I were known to sing it on occasion, and although we never got to sing it to cap a championship season, I'm quite sure that many of us played that moment out in our heads. I know I did. I also know that I still do sing it in my head, when I reflect privately on the great memories I have from playing basketball in high school. Those years provided me with some of the most memorable moments of my life, and Doug Towey provided the soundtrack.

That's the great thing about "One Shining Moment." The final few seconds celebrate the year's champion, but the rest of the montage honors those who came up short in their ultimage goal, and that's what the NCAA Tournament is all about: hundreds of kids on 65 teams, all playing for what they've dreamt about their whole lives. And those kids represent the thousands of Division I college basketball players who don't get a chance to play in the Big Dance, who in turn represent the millions of young men who don't have the opportunity to play college basketball.

Your author at 19'9" was one of those young men, and "One Shining Moment" is his favorite three minutes or so of the college basketball season. A belated "thank you" is in order.

So thanks, Mr. Towey, for again -- like you do every year -- giving me chills for three minutes at the close of my favorite sports season. I'm sorry I never got a chance to tell you in person what "One Shining Moment" meant to me. I hope someone, somewhere, did.

Michigan State Advances to Final

2009-04-04T17:47:00.003-07:00

I actually don't want to talk much about the game - I may post a bit about it in some sort of a championship preview between now and Monday night - but I do want to briefly talk about what I thought was a coaching error on the part of Connecticut's Jim Calhoun down the stretch in Saturday's first national semifinal.

Trailing by 11 points with less than 1:54 to go, the Huskies put on a furious full-court press. Several Spartan mistakes and 46 seconds later, Connecticut small forward Stanley Robinson found himself hanging from the rim, his thunderous jam following an A.J. Price miss having brought his team to within 74-71.

The momentum of the game had certainly shifted. More importantly, the circumstances of the game had shifted. Down just a possession, Connecticut no longer needed a steal or a quick foul. They needed a stop. And that need would best be filled not by the scrambling, high-risk, full-court pressure that had brought them back in the game, but by a solid possession of half-court defense.

But college kids are college kids, and this is the game's biggest stage, and after all, just seconds ago, it appeared that their national championship dreams were over. They can be forgiven for getting caught up in the moment and not recognizing this right away.

It's harder to excuse Calhoun. Perhaps he expected his counterpart at Michigan State, Tom Izzo, to call one, and didn't want to burn his final timeout unnecessarily. Perhaps he thought the Spartans were sufficiently rattled and didn't want to give them a chance to calm down. Or perhaps he, too, got caught up in the moment.

Whatever the reason, Calhoun didn't call timeout, and neither did Izzo, and the results were disastrous for Connecticut. MSU's Durrell Summers broke free from the frantic Connecticut press, and freshman Kemba Walker, desperate to stop an easy layup, got to Summers a moment too late. Summers got the basket and the foul, made the free throw, and it was pretty much over at that point.

Calhoun may have been nervous about entering the final 60 seconds of a one-possession game without a timeout, but it's hard to see what he was saving his final stoppage for; by the time he called it, Michigan State led 80-73 and there were 30 seconds left. That one possession was the most important of the game and required a substantial strategy shift, and Calhoun needed to call his final timeout there, whatever the consequences.

Elite 8 Preview

2009-03-28T01:45:00.000-07:00

One good game and three blowouts tonight and the final eight are set. No surprises Friday night -- Syracuse would have lost even without Jonny Flynn's injury; he was the only Orange to show up and was the team's best player even after bruising his back when his attempt to draw a charge from Blake Griffin late in the first half had with a predictable result. Elsewhere, Arizona and Gonzaga looked overmatched against Louisville and North Carolina, respectively, and Kalin Lucas outplayed Sherron Collins in the final moments to lead Michigan State over Kansas in a game where neither team looked like it belonged in this late stage of the tournament.

We're not at all far from seeing four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for the second straight year...and the second year ever since the field expanded to 64 teams. This gives me an opportunity, before a quick breakdown of the upcoming games, to weakly segue to a point I wanted to make about Arizona before we close out their 2008-09 season but couldn't cram into the above paragraph.

I am certain, if all four No. 1s do advance, that someone will mention what a great job the selection committee did. (That's the segue.) That will be in contrast to the popular reaction when Arizona's name was called on Selection Sunday, which was that the Wildcats didn't deserve a bid. Even when Arizona was breezing by Utah and Cleveland State in the first two rounds, their critics didn't let up. The argument goes that the team's performance in the Tournament doesn't prove anything, and that the merit of their bid should be evaluated only on the basis of their regular season record.

While I agree that being results-oriented isn't a proper way to determine whether a team deserves to be there -- in the same way that the winner of the tournament isn't necessarily the best team in the country -- I disagree that Arizona didn't prove anything last weekend. The Wildcats were one of a good number of teams whose resumes were decidedly mediocre. The way the tournament is set up, some of these "bubble" teams will get in, some won't, and it's pretty much anybody's guess which teams are the best of that group. Arizona's strong performance in this tournament -- the blowout loss to Louisville aside -- proves something about them as a team. It's not enough to definitively say that they are better than San Diego State or Providence or Creighton -- they had an opportunity those teams did not -- but it is enough to say that they weren't undeserving of a bid.

Anyway, on to the previews:

Game most ripe for an upset: East, #1 Pittsburgh vs. #3 Villanova. None of the eight remaining teams can boast the wins the Wildcats have in this tournament: 89-69 over UCLA and 77-54 over Duke. Those squads aren't vintage versions of their programs, but it's still impressive, more impressive than Connecticut's 40-plus-point margin of victory in the first two rounds, more impressive even than Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of Arizona and Carolina's 98-77 stifling of Gonzaga. It's also a long way from last Thursday afternoon, just a few moments after halftime, when American University had scored the first two buckets of the second twenty minutes to take a 14-point lead. Since then, Villanova's been about as good as they can be.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, hasn't found its rhythm yet. They were the top seed to struggle in their first-round game (the other was Louisville), didn't pull away from Oklahoma State until very late, and then went down to the wire with Xavier. They are not long for this tournament if they don't find their way, fast.

Moreover, Villanova is familiar with Pittsburgh and isn't scared of them. In fact, they beat the Panthers in their only meeting in Big East play, a 67-57 victory in Philadelphia in late January. A repeat is very possible.

Game least ripe for an upset: Midwest, #1 Louisville vs. #2 Michigan State. In the interest of full disclosure, I should note now that my bracket has the Spartans winning this game, the product of me not wanting to pick all four top seeds and thinking that the Cardinals were the most overrated of the No. 1s. All of this ignored the fact that I've been saying all year that the Big Ten is wildly overrated itself, an opinion supported in the first two rounds, where five of the seven teams in the conference lost.

I still think MSU can beat Louisville, but not if either team plays the way the way they did Friday night. Louisville is too deep and talented to be beaten by these Spartans at their best, and it's going to take an offensive performance several notches above what MSU has shown thus far to beat the 'ville on even an off-night.

Game that should be most entertaining: South, #1 North Carolina v. #2 Oklahoma. As CBS' Jim Nantz pointed out incessantly on Friday night's broadcast, this game pits last year's consensus player of the year, Tyler Hansbrough, against this year's consensus player of the year, Blake Griffin. It should also show off a heck of a lot of offensive fireworks, as both teams are explosive on that end. The Sooners probably aren't as explosive as they appeared to be against Syracuse, but Carolina isn't known for its defense, either.

On the other end, I don't think there's a team in America that can stop Carolina when the Heels are hitting on all cylinders, and with point guard Ty Lawson playing as if he was healthy (he's not), the Heels are close to hitting on all cylinders.

Game for which I have no superlative: West, #1 Connecticut vs. #3 Missouri. Mizzou is one of two number-three seeds remaining (Villanova's the other), and incredibly, that makes them a Cinderella in the remaining field. The Tigers put a hurting on Memphis in the Sweet Sixteen, but Connecticut is everything Memphis isn't: Big, poised, fundamentally solid. Memphis was a good matchup for Missouri; Connecticut isn't. I still think the Huskies are going to meet their match in this tournament, but it won't be Saturday.

Sweet 16 Breakdown: Midwest and South

2009-03-27T10:30:00.000-07:00

Pitt and Xavier played more defense than I thought, and Missouri outgunned Memphis, but I was right on elsewhere: Duke lost to Villanova in large part because Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer combined to go 4-for-32 from the field, and Connecticut was too strong for Purdue. Let's look at tonight's games:

MIDWEST
#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona. As a commenter to yesterday's post mentioned, I'm something of a sucker for Arizona when it comes to the tournament. Given that I'm not all that high on Louisville -- I watch them and I just can't figure out how they are good as they are -- the temptation is there to pull the trigger on a Wildcat upset.

I don't think it's going to happen, though. The 'ville is a bad matchup for the 'cats. As well as Nic Wise has played this year -- I distinctly remember asking aloud at some point this year, "When did Nic Wise get good at basketball?" -- he's still prone to getting a little out of control, deadly against a team that uses full-court pressure the way the Cardinals do. Arizona doesn't have another really solid ballhandler in the backcourt, and they might do well to have Chase Budinger help bring it up.

While it's not all that rare that you see players on opposing teams who will end up in the NBA, it is a little more rare when those players go head to head. Watching Budinger go against Terrence Williams should be a lot of fun, and Williams will want to avoid getting into a scoring contest with Budinger, which given his unselfish nature, shouldn't be hard to do. Potential lottery picks Jordan Hill and Earl Clark will battle it out down low, too. Give the advantage on the inside to Louisville -- Hill also has to deal with Samardo Samuels.

It could happen, but it would take a near-perfect game from the Wildcats.

#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas. A couple of big-name programs who quietly had very strong years, and yet neither of these teams really strikes you as a scary one. (I'm pretty unimpressed with the whole South region.) The point guard matchup should be a good one, with Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas going up against Sherron Collins. Lucas is a blaze with the ball, while Collins, though plenty quick, is a bit more powerful.

I honestly don't have much to say here -- let's just pick the Spartans and move on.

SOUTH
#1 North Carolina v. #4 Gonzaga. The Tar Heels are beatable, but I think it's going to take a team that is a little bit better defensive than the Bulldogs to do it. Carolina's point guard, Ty Lawson, is going to play despite a toe injury, and though he was hampered somewhat in the first two games, he's still plenty quick enough with the ball to wreak all kinds of havoc on the opposition.

Inside, I think Tyler Hansbrough is probably too tough and physical for Josh Heytvelt, who seems less and less interested in mixing it up underneath as his career goes on. Similarly, as much as I like Austin Daye, I'm not sure he's big and strong enough to be effective for a full game against Carolina's depth.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse. The game of the night, if you ask me, and it's actually the early game in this region. Syracuse was one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament, and Oklahoma one of the coldest.

The Orange seem to be a popular pick, and I can see why. The two teams have such contrasting strengths that it's as easy to envision Jonny Flynn sojourning into the lane time and again, zipping passes to Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins for open threes as it is to picture Blake Griffin finding holes in the Syracuse 2-3 zone and going for one of the 20-point, 20-rebound games that seem to be his signature.

I think Syracuse can win this one, but Oklahoma is the favorite. The Orange defense has not been as good this season as we've come to expect from them, and it's not because they don't get out on three-point shooters. There are too many holes in the middle of that zone, and you can't give Blake Griffin the ball there. He's got the combination of size, strength, and ballhandling ability that he can do a ton of damage from the high post. Griffin does like to spin dribble a little too much, a move that can be dangerous in traffic, and so Syracuse forwards Rick Jackson, Paul Harris, and Kristof Ongenaet should be prepared to step in and take the charge. Getting Griffin in foul trouble would be huge.

Earlier in the season, I might have said that Arinze Onuaku was a decent matchup for Griffin, but knee injuries have really slowed him late in the season. He's just not the same player, and I don't think he can effectively play Griffin on either end. His reduced mobility, too, will be a problem on the glass. Rebounding out of the 2-3 is always tough, and that's exacerbated when you're up against an athletic, mobile guy like Blake Griffin. And Blake's older brother, Taylor, is no slouch either.

I'd like the 'cuse a bit more if Paul Harris were playing better, but he hasn't been himself for several games, dating back to the Big East tournament. Flynn is every bit the point guard that Lawson and Lucas are, and Rautins and Devendorf are marksmen. I'm just not sure Syracuse has enough to overcome the Sooners' obvious interior advantage.

Sweet 16 Breakdown: West and East

2009-03-26T11:55:00.000-07:00

A lot of people lament the lack of upsets in an NCAA Tournament, and I agree that upsets are a big part of what makes it March Madness. But like last year, the first year in which all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, the chalkiness of this year's Big Dance means we're in store for some great basketball over the next few weeks. The barrier broken this year is that it's the first tournament in which the top three seeds in each of the four regions survived the first weekend. There's really only one somewhat surprising team in the Sweet Sixteen (though yours truly's bracket correctly had them advancing), and Arizona, being more or less a basketball power over the last couple of decades, is hardly the dictionary definition of Cinderella.

WEST
#1 Connecticut vs. #5 Purdue. I had Washington here in Purdue's spot and am a little surprised at how well the Boilers played at times during the tourney's first weekend. They were a highly ranked team early in the year, however, before injuries hit Robbie Hummel, so perhaps this is just them living up to expectations.

Either way, I don't think they have enough to beat Connecticut. I don't think the Huskies are unbeatable, but I think that the team to beat them needs to have a very strong post player. Hasheem Thabeet dominates most opponents defensively, but is a bit of a shrinking violet when faced with an opposing post player of above-average caliber. (Witness his pedestrian performances against Pittsburgh and Georgetown this year.) Purdue doesn't have that trait.

#2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri. I haven't seen much of Mizzou this year -- to the point where, late in the season, I looked at the rankings and exclaimed, incredulously, "Missouri is ranked tenth?!?!?" I know that they like to play up-and-down, they are deep, and they can score points in bunches. Memphis is like that, too, however, and in addition to being more talented and deep than Mizzou, they are also better defensively. That gives them the edge in what will be a frantic affair.

EAST
#1 Pittsburgh v. #4 Xavier. I picked North Carolina to win it all this year, mainly because I picked them at the beginning of the year and I see flaws with all the other contenders. Carolina has its flaws, too, including my pet flaw, the one that had me ranting all last year, which is that they don't play enough defense to win a championship. In large part due to my regret for selling myself out like that, then, I was remorseful for my selection and began convincing myself that Pittsburgh was the team to beat this year. Then they go out and barely squeak by East Tennessee State and a better-than-you-thought Oklahoma State team in the tournament's first weekend.

Ironically, I think Pitt's defense isn't quite good enough to make me confident that they'll win. It's ironic for two reasons: one, because that's why I'm not confident in my Carolina pick; and two, because defense was Pitt's calling card when they rose to national prominence under Ben Howland (now the head man at UCLA -- which had defensive problems of its own in getting pasted by Villanova in the second round). Because of that reputation, and because head coach Jamie Dixon was a Howland assistant, I think recent vintages of Panthers have gotten underserved reputations as good defensive teams. In fact, I think -- with no statistical backup -- that each successive edition of Pitt under Dixon has been a little bit worse defensively than the previous one.

It follows, then, that I don't think all that highly of this Pitt team defensively, and that is going to be a problem against any solid team, which means it's going to be a problem against any team left in this tournament. I don't know enough about Xavier to say if the Muskies are the team that will take the Panthers out, but I do know that I won't be terribly surprised if it happens.

#2 Duke v. #3 Villanova. This is the matchup I'm most looking forward to, a couple of guard-oriented teams with a star forward who can score inside (Kyle Singler for Duke, Dante Cunningham for Villanova). Both teams rely heavily on the three-point shot, and both have capable but limited role players up front (I give the advantage to Nova here). Duke is perhaps one player deeper in the backcourt and on the wing.

A lot of people would give the coaching advantage to Duke's legendary Coach K, but that does an injustice to Nova head man Jay Wright. Wright has had the same kind of team he has this year in previous years, and he has had great success in the past -- coming within a missed traveling call of upsetting eventual champion North Carolina in 2005, running into a juggernaut on a roll -- a juggernaut on a roll that was a particularly bad matchup for Nova's guard-oriented team -- in Florida the following year. Wright is every bit the coach Coach K is.

This game is really a tossup. If one team shoots well and the other doesn't, it'll prevail. (Duh.) If both teams shoot well, it could easily be "last possession wins." If neither team shoots well, it's a tossup. Both teams have guys who can get to the bucket and finish (Gerald Henderson and Nolan Smith for Duke; Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds for Villanova), which is imperative when the jumper isn't falling. It may come down to something like free throws, in which case I guess I like Duke by a thin margin, as I think Singler is better at drawing fouls than Cunningham and the officials always seem to send Duke to the line more than their opponents.

Saint Mary's 80, Davidson 68

2009-03-24T10:26:00.000-07:00

I know, it's a little weird to be writing about the NIT when I haven't posted in forever and the NCAA Tournament is ongoing. I'm going to try to break down each of the Sweet 16 matchups a bit later in the week.

I'm making this post because I caught this game last night and during the broadcast, ESPN analyst Hubert Davis made a point to say at least once, and probably several times (I was fast-forwarding a lot) that these teams deserved to be in the field of 65.

Nope.

Every year, and this year more than most, I feel that the bubble teams, with rare exceptions, do not have much room to argue their exclusion. After having seen Davidson last night, the Wildcats have no argument whatsoever.

I'm a little more sympathetic to Saint Mary's, who really lost its chance to go dancing when it dropped three of four games in late January and early February, including a two-point loss to Sweet 16 conference foe Gonzaga. A big reason for those setbacks was the loss of their star, Patrick Mills, to a wrist injury. If Mills plays, they could easily have won all of those games -- and they won five straight without him, including a BracketBuster win over Utah State, another tournament team -- and in that case may have earned an at-large bid. Given that Mills was back and healthy by the time the Selection Committee was making its decisions, they had a case for a bid.

The Gaels aren't just all Mills, though. They have some very strong post players up front in Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson, and some guards who can knock down open jumpers.

Davidson, on the other hand, is all Stephen Curry. As much as I like to watch Curry -- and I do -- the rest of his teammates are terrible. I wasn't tracking it the whole game, but I paid pretty close attention for most of the second half, and the number of wide-open layups or short jumpers his teammates missed far outnumbered the number of shots they hit when faced with any defense whatsoever. These guys have perhaps the easiest job in college basketball -- play four-on-three while the other team focuses on Curry -- and none of them is worth a damn offensively.

I'm not sure what's more amazing: That Curry can lead the nation in scoring while being double-teamed all the time, or that his teammates can be this ineffective while playing a man up all the time.

Obviously, then, I disagree that Davidson deserved to be in the field of 65. I know what they did last year, and it was a blast to watch, but they just aren't a very good team.

Big East Day One

2009-03-11T04:19:00.001-07:00

One day into the new, allegedly improved Big East tournament, and the expanded format is already hurting the conference.

Not because of Georgetown's somewhat surprising 64-59 loss to host St. John's; the Hoyas needed a deep run to make the NCAA tournament. (Alas, how far they have fallen since they beat Connecticut in Storrs to open conference play.) But Cincinnati's stunning 67-57 defeat at the hands of DePaul -- 0-18-in-the-Big-East-Depaul, hadn't-won-a-game-since-December-28-DePaul -- could very well cost the league at least one bid.

I think seven teams -- Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia -- could count on having locked up bids by virtue of their performance in the regular season. Two others -- Cincy and Providence -- had work to do. Both probably could not get in, as they were on course to play each other in Wednesday's second-round. But that matchup could have very well served as a play-in game for the field of 65.

The Bearcats almost certainly blew their chances by losing to the Blue Demons on Tuesday, and the Friars' prospects took a blow, too. Providence now cannot count on one Big East tournament win earning them a bid, since that win, if they get it, will come against lowly DePaul. They might very well have to beat Louisville, the regular season champs, in Thursday's quarterfinals, a tall order.

That's under the new five-day, 16-team system, which gives the top four teams a double bye into the quarterfinals. Under the old system, which also gave the top four teams byes into the quarters but left the bottom four teams out of the competition entirely, several of the Big East bubble teams would have had a better opportunity to make their case to the selection committee:

-Cincy would have matched up with West Virginia in the first round. A win over the Mountaineers might have been enough to push the Bearcats through.

-Providence would have faced Notre Dame, another team that has a shot at a berth. It's hard to describe this one as a play-in game since Notre Dame would not have locked up a bid with a win, but a PC victory would likely have guaranteed them entrance into the field of 65.

In a best-case scenario for the conference under the old system, then, Cincinnati would have beaten WVU and Notre Dame would have beaten Providence, and all three would have gotten in, securing an unprecedent ten bids for the league. (Sure, this assumes an awful lot -- specifically, that a 9-11 conference record would have been enough for Cincy and Notre Dame -- but if Arkansas can get in with a 7-9 regular season record over a ten-win Syracuse team a few years, back, I see no reason why a Big East team this year can't make the Dance with a conference record below .500.)

Now, the best-case scenario is eight teams, with Providence needing to sweat it out even if they beat DePaul on Wednesday.

Something I've Never Seen Before

2009-02-21T23:11:00.000-08:00

Heckuva game between Texas and Oklahoma tonight. Blake Griffin being knocked out of the game early with an apparent concussion was undoubtedly the key to the Longhorns' win, but it was fun to watch freshman Willie Warren step up in his place and go toe-to-toe down the stretch with Texas' A.J. Abrams. (Though as individual performances from Saturday go, both Warren and Abrams were outdone by Maryland's Greivis Vasquez, who put up 35/11/10 in Maryland's stunning overtime win over North Carolina.)

So, anyway, the thing I've never seen before. Warren is having a fantastic season; along with Memphis' Tyreke Evans, he's one of the favorites for national freshman of the year honors. But he's received some deserved criticism from those who think he, to put it politely, is a bit impetuous with his shot selection. To put it impolitely, he's a chucker.

With his Sooners up two and about five-and-a-half minutes remaining, Warren committed a turnover and appeared to injure his ankle (it turned out to be a leg cramp). Texas rushed upcourt and missed a layup while Warren hobbled around, never crossing midcourt. Oklahoma now having numbers, the Sooners embarked on a break of their own, and Warren, still around the three-point line, called for the ball, caught it and went up for a deep three, almost in the same motion. This was pure heat check, and as the ball dropped through the net for his sixth three-pointer and 25th, 26th, and 27th points of the night, Warren landed on his non-injured leg while signaling for a timeout so he could get treatment.

You gotta love his confidence and his fight, but there's gotta be a better shot available than a deep three from a guy with a bum wheel.

Pittsburgh 76, Connecticut 68

2009-02-17T18:22:00.001-08:00

A whole month without posts in the middle of the season? Inexcusable, though I'll try: law school and my NBA blog are taking up most of my time. I'll try to do better down the stretch. And what better way to get back into it than a matchup of top-five teams battling for Big East supremacy?

The big story from this one lay in the stat lines from Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair and Connecticut's Hasheem Thabeet: 22 points and 23 rebounds for the former; five points and four rebounds for the latter. Complete domination of the matchup from start to finish, starting with Blair flipping Thabeet onto his back, professional wrestling style, early in the game (highlights here).

I'm not willing to go as far as to say that that play set the tone for the evening, but it certainly summed up the matchup between this two well-regarded big men. Blair was tougher and stronger (and better) than Thabeet all night, capping the evening with a game-sealing block of Thabeet - a "stuff," really, with Blair essentially ripping the ball out of Thabeet's hands.

The ESPN highlight reel linked above focuses almost exclusively on the Blair-Thabeet matchup, and if you watch it, you'll see a diverse offensive arsenal from Blair that I frankly didn't know he had. Jump hook, turnaround jumper, lefty layin after a drop step. Even the one time Thabeet got the best of him, blocking an ill-advised fadeaway, Blair retrieved the ball and went right at Thabeet, driving into the land before stepping through for lefty layup. And the foul.

Another thing I hadn't seen before from Blair was his outlet passing. He threw at least three terrific outlet passes last night, including the one at the end of the highlight that followed his block of Thabeet.

Finally, I was very impressed by his conditioning. He's 6'7", 265, which is a lot of DeJuan Blair to be carrying up and down the court for 38 minutes. But that's how many minutes he did play, a game high, and he wasn't exactly just going through the motions out there. These were 38 minutes of rebounding and jumping and battling for position; 38 minutes of work. Blair is short for his position, which means he has to rely more on strength than a taller man would. Blair exerted himself for nearly the whole game, and was still fresh enough to register that block on Thabeet in the closing minute.

As for Thabeet, he seems like a consensus lottery pick, and while it's hard to quibble with his height and weakside shot-blocking ability, particularly in what should be a relatively shallow draft, I'm just not sure. I've now twice watched him be completely neutralized and outplayed by an opposing big man (December vs. Greg Monroe and Georgetown is the other), and while he had a respectable nine points and 11 rebounds against Notre Dame, it's worth noting that Luke Harangody had 24 and 15 for the Irish.

It just seems like every time Thabeet goes up against somebody halfway decent, he gets shown up. Sure, he can put up 25 and 20 with nine blocks against Seton Hall like he did the other day, but so what? The competiton in the pros is going to be tougher than it is now.

As far as Connecticut goes generally, losing Jerome Dyson for the year with a knee injury obviously hurts their depth, but anything that gives freshman Kemba Walker more court time can't be all bad. I really like this kid. Lightning-quick, good passer, plays within himself. With Walker, A.J. Price, and Craig Austrie, the Huskies should get plenty of production from their backcourt.

As for Pittsburgh: I'm impressed. Sam Young's a lot better than I thought he was, and I've grudgingly come to accept that if Levance Fields is not an elite point guard, he is the kind of point guard you can win a championship with. Takes care of the ball and steps up when it matters (witness the two threes he hit down the stretch last night -- his first two made field goals of the game.) I also think that the Panthers are better defensively than they have been in recent years. Pitt, of course, had a strong defensive reputation under Ben Howland, and when Howland left for UCLA and his assistant Jamie Dixon took over, that reputation carried over. But it seemed like Pitt's defense had actually gotten worse each of the past several years, as though the emphasis on defense decreased the more time elapsed between Howland and the program. They seem better on that end this year. Maybe that will translate to some March success.

Kentucky 90, Tennessee 72

2009-01-14T04:01:00.000-08:00

Suffering from some law school grade-related blues, I needed something, late Tuesday night, to make myself feel better. So at just a few minutes before 3 a.m. on Wednesday, after finishing the next day's reading, I decided to re-watch Jodie Meeks' record-setting 54-point effort (highlights here; sorry for the advertisement at the beginning, but that's ESPN for you) in a win at Tennessee.

Some people drink away their troubles. I've done my fair share of that over the years, but alcohol has never made me feel as good as a transcendant performance on the hardwood.

Meeks hasn't really been on my radar, since he was hurt or inconsistent during his first two years in Lexington. Even in this, his breakout season (he was leading the SEC in scoring at 24.2 points per game heading into the matchup with Tennessee, and had already registered four 30-point efforts, including a 46-point outing against Appalachian State on December 20) I hadn't noticed him, since I hadn't seen the Wildcats play.

Now that he's set the single-game scoring record in UK's storied history, consider me officially on notice.

The Volunteers are hardly a defensive juggernaut, and the frenetic pace they favor gives opponents a relatively high number of possessions on which to score. According to the ESPN broadcast, Meeks is the sixth opposing player to set a career-high in scoring this year against the Vols. Still, according to ESPN's Pat Forde, Meeks' 54 were the most points by a BCS-conference player since 2000, when Arizona State's Eddie House hung 61 on California in a game that went to overtime.

Maybe it's because Forde invoked his name, but I couldn't help but notice the similarities in the offensive games of House and Meeks. I've often noticed the unique way House moves around and especially the way he gets into his shot; I think the best word to describe it is "bouncy," or, maybe, "springy." House doesn't step into his lethal jumper so much as he hops into it, coming to what is essentially a jump stop before going up. This allows him to square his body to the bucket relatively quickly and effectively, as he is taking off for his shot from a very stable base. Compare it to shooting off the dribble without a jump stop, where the shooter's feet are often unnaturally far apart for a jump shot. House does this even when he's moving without the ball; his last step when coming off a screen is a jump stop. This has the effect of making an already quick release even quicker, and defenders are often caught off-guard, making the shot hard to contest. Meeks shoots the same way.

Of course, there are differences between the two, and they all point in Meeks' favor. The first is size. Meeks is listed at 6'4", while House -- the NBA journeyman who is now a backup guard with the Boston Celtics -- is listed at 6'1". Yet Meeks is bigger without giving up quickness; in fact, off hand, I cannot think of any 6'4" players quicker or even as quick as Meeks, and he's quicker than many smaller men, both with the ball and without it (ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes kept marveling at how hard he cuts). Meeks also has a more diverse offensive game than House, the three-point sniper who rarely does any damage inside the foul line. While Meeks has a very good jumper -- the school-record ten threes he hit Tuesday night attest to that -- he can also put it on the floor and get to the hoop. Finally, House is something of a liability defensively (though not for want of effort). Meeks, by contrast, is a good defender (his aforementioned size and quickness certainly play part here).

I still have a couple of Kevin Durant's Texas games on my Tivo, but neither those nor the 30-point half I watched Purdue's Glenn Robinson put up on Kansas many years ago compare to Meeks' dominance Tuesday night. Mr. Meeks, if you're reading this: Thanks for an enjoyable end to a rough day.

[Antonio Anderson keeping Memphis' Conference USA winning streak alive -- it's now at 45 games -- at the buzzer in Tulsa (link to highlights has introductory advertisement and sound) was a pretty tasty appetizer.]

Pittsburgh 70, Georgetown 54

2009-01-05T10:49:00.000-08:00

I'm ack in DC for a few days and checked out this one with my cousin and a few friends. After Georgetown so thoroughly outplayed UConn in Storrs earlier in the week, I was expecting a better game than I got. If it weren't for DaJuan Summers hitting some very difficult shots -- he had 15 at halftime and finished with 22 -- it wouldn't have been much of a ballgame. As it was, the Panthers had it well in hand by the last several minutes. I was sitting right by the Pitt section -- those folks travel well. And they've been rewarded -- the Panthers are the nation's new number one team for the first time in history, after North Carolina's stunning loss to Boston College in Chapel Hill last night (so much for the undefeated season I had been predicting).

Sitting up in the 400 level -- "the Hill" as its known in the Verizon Center, a nod, of course, to Capitol Hill -- it was hard to appreciate just how dominant Pitt's DeJuan Blair was, so it was something of a surprise afterward to see his stat line of 20 points and 17 rebounds. His counterpart, Greg Monroe (who I raved about recently) had a decent game by the box score with 15 points and eight boards, but Blair thoroughly outplayed him. I don't want to say that Monroe needs to become more physical because I think his future is on the wing, but for Gerogetown's purposes, I'm sure they'd like him to bang a bit more.

Speaking of Monroe and Blair, after last Monday's performance against UConn, I was curious to see where Monroe ranked on the NBA draft sites, nbadraft.net and DraftExpress. Neither site had updated its mock draft since the game when I first checked, and neither site had Monroe listed.

I kept checking, and while I didn't find Monroe on nbadraft.net right away, I did find that Monroe had moved from off the board to number three overall on DraftExpress, while UConn's Hasheem Thabeet -- the 7'3" junior who Monroe badly outplayed -- had dropped a few spots, from (I think) five to eight. I can't tell if DraftExpress has updated its mock since Saturday, but Monroe is still at three and Thabeet is still at eight, with Blair at 20. I'll keep an eye on it to see if it moves further.

Over on nbadraft.net, and again, I don't know when the update occurred, Monroe is 20th, Thabeet's third, and Blair is 29th.

These rankings really don't mean anything, but I thought it was interesting to see Monroe debut so high on the DraftExpress board and to see him jump Thabeet.

You can catch Georgetown in action tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern at Notre Dame on ESPN. The Irish were surprise losers to St. John's on Saturday.

-I want to follow up on this post: Louisville lost at home to UNLV before squeaking by Kentucky on Edgar Sosa's bomb (video in link). I still think Louisville could be in a lot of trouble, but it would be even worse without a single respectable non-conference win. Sosa might've saved the Cardinals season with that shot. Anyway, the 'ville opens conference play on Wednesday at South Florida, then enters their toughest five-game stretch of conference play: at Villanova, home vs. Notre Dame, home vs. Pittsburgh, at Rutgers, at Syracuse. This just seems like a volatile group and a bad start could really be curtains for them.

Opening Night in the Big East

2008-12-29T21:33:00.000-08:00

The Georgetown-Connecticut game marked the opening of ESPN's Monday night Big East coverage, although not technically the beginning of the weekly tripleheaders dubbed these many years Big Monday. The Big East is incredibly deep this year, with eight teams currently ranked in the ESPN/USAToday poll and a ninth -- West Virginia -- just two spots out of it after dismantling previously unbeaten Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday. (The AP poll has seven Big East teams in the top 25, though Marquette and West Virginia are Nos. 26 and 27, respectively). It's just going to be a fantastic season, with ten tournament bids a real possibility.

ESPN's Andy Katz wrote a nice breakdown of the conference, and he makes the point that if the league wants to get ten teams in, it won't be enough for those ten to get to 8-10 by virtue of beating the bottom six teams in the league (likely to be Rutgers, South Florida, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, and DePaul) seven or eight times. They'll need at least a couple of wins against each other.

For similar reasons, these non-conference games that are wrapping up (with a few exceptions) this week take on an increased importance in a year where the conference is so stacked. Let's take a look at the ten realistic contenders for tournament bids from the Big East, and see what their non-conference slates look like. I'll take them in the same order Katz did.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats 60-45 loss at Memphis (after the Tigers dropped out of the Top 25 for the first time in a few years) hurts, particularly since fellow Big East foes Georgetown and Syracuse have already beaten last year's national runners-up. Losing to Xavier is nothing to be ashamed of, though dropping a game to Florida State hurts. Still, they have wins at UNLV and against Mississippi State and UAB, so they're in decent shape at 3-3 against potential tournament teams from major conferences.

Connecticut: The Huskies will be fine, provided that they don't make their listless performance against Georgetown a habit. Victories over Miami (FL) and Wisconsin on their way to winning Paradise Jam, along with a win over Gonzaga in Seattle gives them a nice non-conference slate. They can get some insurance, not that they'll need it, on February 7, when they host Michigan (and old foe John Beilein, the former head coach at West Virginia).

Georgetown: Beating Maryland and Memphis more than offsets losing to Tennessee in a very hard-fought game at the Old Spice Classic in November. Given that the Hoyas already have a huge conference road win, they're in fine shape. Like UConn, they have one more out-of-conference test, January 17 at Duke.

Louisville: The Cardinals have a couple of really troubling losses, to Western Kentucky and Minnesota. They rebounded a couple of days ago with a convincing win over UAB, but the Blazers are down to something like six scholarship players, so that victory doesn't look as good as it might have at the beginning of the year. They don't have any other good wins, but they do have two more opportunities to make life easier for them once their conference slate starts. They play UNLV on New Year's Eve at 6 p.m. Eastern, and given that Cincinnati has already beaten the Rebels this year, the Ville could very well have to win that one to avoid needing to be better than .500 in Big East play -- which is more doable for them than it is for others, since they have seven games against the league's bottom six and only get the league's true heavies -- Pittsburgh, UConn, and Georgetown -- once each. They've also got Kentucky on January 4, and although the Wildcats beat West Virginia earlier this year, UK might be the kind of team where a loss to them looks worse than a win over them looks good, if you get what I'm saying.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles have a couple of decent wins against Wisconsin and North Carolina State, a good loss against Tennessee, and then kind of a bad loss to Dayton. That's not really anything to be ashamed of, but Marquette is done in non-conference play, and they're right on the fringe of the top 25 right now. What's more, they finish up with a wicked schedule. Check out this five-game stretch to finish up Big East play: at Georgetown, vs. Connecticut, at Louisville, at Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse. Brutal. Given the emphasis the selection committee seems to put on the way a team is playing heading into the tournament, Marquette may not have done enough out of conference to survive losing four out of five to end the season, followed by an early exit in the Big East tournament. They haven't made things impossible for themselves, but they are going to have to play awfully well to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. That loss to Dayton could loom large.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish nipped Texas by a point in the Maui semis, lost to Carolina in the final, and slipped up against Ohio State in Indianapolis in Luke Harangody's first game back after missing two with pneumonia. They are fine barring a major collapse in conference play, though a win at UCLA on February 7would certainly help.

Pittsburgh: No one win really jumps out at you. They won at Florida State, but beating the Seminoles, even in Tallahassee, is hardly the kind of win a team hangs it hat on. They beat Texas Tech and Washington State on consecutive nights in November in New Jersey, but I just watched the Cougars play terribly in a loss to LSU, and the Red Raiders lost to Lamar earlier this year and got beat by 45 at Stanford their last time out. Still, they've taken care of business, and honestly should be good enough in the Big East that their non-conference schedule won't matter. Incidentally, they are not quite done with out of conference opponents, as they've oddly scheduled a home date with Robert Morris for February 2.

Syracuse: Losing to Cleveland State at the Carrier Dome wasn't good, but for the first time in a couple of years, the Orange have done quite a lot in the non-conference. Beating Florida and Kansas back-to-back in Kansas City to win the CBE Classic was big, and they added a big win at Memphis on December 20. These teams aren't the same squads that are responsible for the last three national championships (and one national runnerup-ship), but they are good wins over name teams away from home. Syracuse just needs to stay the course in the Big East to get a bid.

Villanova: No bad losses for the Wildcats, their lone blemish being a nine-point defeat at the hands of Texas, then ranked No. 6. No spectacular wins, either. Monday's 62-45 win over Temple looks good if you consider that the Owls beat Tennessee on December 13; it becomes less impressive when you realize that Temple then lost to Long Beach State, and had previously lost to Buffalo and Miami (OH). Katz says that a November 19 triumph over Niagara is 'Nova's most meaningful win, which isn't likely to get too many people that excited about the Wildcats. They're out of non-conference opportunities, but have climbed high enough in the polls that something like .500 in the Big East should get them there.

West Virginia: It would have been nice to beat Kentucky and Davidson, but the aforementioned trouncing of Ohio State in Columbus this weekend makes up for a lot of that. The Mountaineers have two games against each of Louisville and Pittsburgh, which is tough, but it cuts both ways: It can just as easily be seen as two extra opportunities for a big resume win as it can be seen as an extra two automatic losses in conference.

Have a good New Year, all.

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63

2008-12-29T20:22:00.000-08:00

I was expecting a bit better from this one.

Still, the night wasn't a complete bust, as I got my first real look at Georgetown's 6'9" freshman, Greg Monroe. What a player! He thoroughly outplayed his much bigger, much older, much more highly-touted counterpart on the Huskies, Hasheem Thabeet.

Monroe made his impact felt early, scoring or assisting on each of the Hoyas' first six baskets. Consider this sequence from the games opening minutes:

18:10 - Monroe threads a backdoor pass to Austin Freeman for the first two points of the game.
17:09 - After a UConn miss, offensive rebound, and turnover, Monroe hits Freeman backdoor again for a 4-0 lead. He didn't get an assist on this one, but he should have.
16:57 - Monroe rebounds Jeff Adrien's missed free throw.
16:21 - After a Hoya turnover and a Thabeet missed jam, Monroe find DaJuan Summers for a three and a 7-1 lead.
16:08 - Guarding UConn point guard A.J. Price on the perimeter, Monroe pokes the ball free, picks it up, takes it to the bucket...
16:05 - ...and makes the layup while being fouled by Price.
16:05 - Monroe misses the free throw. Hey, no one's perfect.
15:42 - Monroe fights around Thabeet and knocks away an entry pass from Stanley Robinson.
15:24 - Monroe assists on another triple by Summers. 12-1.
15:04 - Robinson misses a jumper. Monroe allows Summers to grab the rebound.
14:46 - Monroe drills a three-pointer from the top of the key off a pass from Summers, staking the Hoyas to a 15-1 lead.

So Monroe, playing his first Big East game, on the road against the undefeated second-ranked team in the country basically took over for three-and-a-half minutes. Granted, he didn't keep up that ridiculous pace, finishing with a rather modest line: 16 points, four rebounds, four assists, three steals. Three of those credited assists came in the first six minutes, as did two of the steals, and his rebound numbers are low because he picked up his third foul just 80 seconds into the second half and John Thompson III subbed him out for defense and in for offense for most of the next 12 minutes or so.

Because of Monroe's height, length, and smoothness, and the fact that he shoots with the same hand that Satan does, I suppose comparisons to the Los Angeles Lakers' Lamar Odom are inevitable. But that's who he reminded me of most, particularly when he drove across the lane and threw in a six-foot running hook off the glass over Thabeet. He is a great fit for Georgetown's Princeton-style offense, given that he can pass and hit the jumper, but he also can play with his back to the basket: In the first half, he caught the ball in the lane, threw a quick fake over his left shoulder, then went, without hesitation, to a little baby hook over Thabeet. He's playing center for the Hoyas this year, but at 6'10", he projects more as a four and it looks like he could be mobile enough to play a little three, at least offensively.

I'm really excited to watch this guy for the rest of the year. ESPN has him at noon Eastern this Saturday, January 3, when the Hoyas take on third-ranked (soon to be second-ranked, if they beat Georgetown) Pittsburgh.

Ohio State 73, Miami 68

2008-12-03T10:25:00.000-08:00

Nice road win for Ohio State, though it was probably in large part due to Miami's Jack McClinton being ejected midway through the first half for taking an open-handed swing at Buckeye Anthony Crater (video contained in above link).

Big games from Jon Diebler (first one of his I've ever seen) and Evan Turner keyed the victory, but I'm more interested in talking about the Buckeyes' post players. Specifically, B.J. Mullens, the freshman center projected by many to be a top-5 pick in next summer's NBA draft if he leaves school.

Mullens' rep is a big guy with a good shooting touch, and I can see it, though he went just 2-for-6 Tuesday night. He's got good form on his jumper, and I saw a nice little turnaround J.

He needs to get tougher and more assertive, though. The box score has him down for three offensive rebounds, but I only remember two. On the first, he got the board and had a relatively easily putback if he wanted it, but he didn't even turn to look at the basket. (I noticed Dallas Lauderdale and Kyle Madsen do the same thing at least once, too). On the second one, he got the tip-in, but he was boxed out; his superior length allowed him to reach over the Hurricanes player and tap it in. On the third, he was left free underneath due to Miami's defensive rotation or a blown check-out assignment, and missed a one-handed follow-up jam.

Mullens uses his hands too much to try to get position on his opponents, rather than his body. He's a big guy and he's not using that size to his advantage yet. He's strong enough that he probably didn't need to in high school, but college is a different game.

Miami got 15 offensive rebounds in the game. ACC teams are not supposed to push BigTen teams around like that.

On one, he missed a thunderous follow up jam after a missed boxout from Miami. On the other, he got a tip in, but he was out of position; his length allowed him to reach up over a Hurrican and tip it in.

My Take on Kelvin Sampson

2008-12-01T22:35:00.000-08:00

Some may remember that I write occasionally for a blog called iVoryTowerz. My latest post there discusses Kelvin Sampson and the sanctions imposed on him by the NCAA. You can read it here.

I Can't Believe We're Still Not Fouling

2008-12-01T18:43:00.001-08:00

Virginia Tech down three to Wisconsin at home Monday night, 11 seconds to go. They have the ball, they've just hit a couple three-pointers in the final minute to cut the Badger lead to one, and they have A.D. Vassallo, one of the nation's deadliest three-point shooters. ESPN color analyst Bill Raftery announces that if he was coaching Wisconsin, he'd order his players to foul in this situation. Bo Ryan, Wisconsin's actual head coach, chooses not to.

How are teams STILL not fouling in these situations?

The counter-argument to fouling goes something like this. If you play it straight up and don't foul, the worst you can do is overtime. If you foul, you're risking a loss.

How? Well, the argument goes, if you foul, your opponent could go to the line, make the first, miss the second, tap the rebound out to the three-point line, and sink a three to win.

Seriously?

Honestly, when was the last time you saw that happen? I've never seen it. What I have often seen, is what happened tonight: Vassallo drained a three to tie it up. (Wisconsin got a late bucket from Trevon Hughes to win 74-72.) Not fouling may well have cost Memphis the national championship last year (though Tigers coach John Calipari said his team had orders to foul, but couldn't give it before Mario Chalmers was already in the act of shooting his game-tying three).

It's a tired issue, because every time the situation arises in a game, the color guy makes a point to say that the leading team should foul. In fact, I don't know a single person who isn't a college basketball coach who thinks playing solid D is the correct strategy in this spot. And while it's generally correct to give the benefit of the doubt to give the presumptive experts (the coaches), not fouling simply can't be right.

If you choose not to foul, you're saying that the probability of the other team 1)making the first free throw, 2)missing the second free throw, 3)getting the offensive rebound, and 4)hitting a three-pointer is greater than the probability of the other team 1)hitting a three-pointer and 2)winning in overtime. (That's a bit oversimplified, but it will do for now). There's no way that's true.

As a fan, I actually don't mind it, because shots like the one Chalmers hit in April and Vassallo hit tonight are exciting, and free throws aren't. But it's the great mystery of the game that college coaches are still so skittish about this.

Quick notes from the opening of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge

-I don't remember when I first saw Vassallo, but he certainly wasn't the player then that he is now? When did he get such a complete game?

-I was really impressed with Wisconsin's Marcus Landry, especially early. I always thought of him as a glue guy, an undersized banger. But he had ten points early tonight, on a pair of three-pointers and a couple of nice turnaround jumpers on the baseline where he recognized the double team and turned away from it. I'm actually surprised he hasn't used up his eligibility yet, but he's a guy who has improved every year.

-Great crowd in Blacksburg tonight. Virginia Tech should be a tough place to win for ACC opponents not named North Carolina.

Kyle McAlarney

2008-11-27T03:14:00.000-08:00

Sitting here after watching North Carolina pick apart a very good Notre Dame team 102-87 in the championship game of the Maui Invitational, I'm very tempted to write a post predicting that the Heels will go undefeated on their way to the national championship. I'm going to refrain from doing so, because I haven't seen Connecticut, Louisville, or Pittsburgh yet -- nor have I seen Michigan State, the one remaining non-conference opponent on Carolina's schedule with a realistic shot at beating them. Honestly, though, I can't see these guys losing this year.

Instead, I want to focus for a few moments on Notre Dame shooting guard Kyle McAlarney. The senior had himself one hell of a Maui, hitting 21 of 38 three-point attempts during the three games, scoring 39 points on 10-of-18 from deep in Wednesday night's finale. McAlarney has almost unlimited range and an incredibly quick release.

These things typically bode well for a player's NBA prospects. I'm not so sure with McAlarney. At the very least, if I were an NBA scout, I'd want to see him hit more threes coming off of screens.

Pure shooters like McAlarney make their living in the NBA by running off of screens on the baseline, curling out to the wing and draining threes. (Think former Indiana Pacer Reggie Miller, or perhaps Detroit's Rip Hamilton, though Hamilton usually steps inside the three-point-line). Notre Dame runs plenty of these sets for McAlarney, and he's very good at using the screens to get open, as well as reading the defender and deciding whether to curl towards the ball or fade to the corner.

The problem is that he doesn't necessarily shoot that well coming off of these screens. At least he didn't in Maui. I noticed it after he clanged a few in Monday night's game against Indiana, and tracked it closely in Tuesday's win over Texas and tonight against Carolina. Of the 15 trifectas he hit in those latter two games, only one came off a screen. And even that one wasn't the play I just described -- with the ball on the left wing, he passed to a teammate at the top of the key, then ran around behind the teammate for a quick handoff and shot.

Hitting a shot like this essentially requires that the shooter square his body as part of his shooting motion, and I didn't see McAlarney do it once successfully. Any time he hit a three coming off of a screen, he had time -- he doesn't need much -- to square himself before he caught the pass. If you watch guys like Texas' A.J. Abrams or Davidson's Stephen Curry, however, you'll see something different -- it looks like they are squaring their bodies to the rim while in the air.

I certainly don't mean to knock him, but this is a skill he's going to need.

Syracuse Wins CBE

2008-11-26T08:48:00.001-08:00

Two huge -- huge -- non-conference wins for Syracuse the last two nights. I know that this year's versions of Kansas and Florida are hardly the teams that have combined to win the last three national championships between them, but they are high-profile programs that started the season in the Top 25.

Syracuse has missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons, not a little bit because they play a famously soft non-conference schedule. I don't want to say that the Orange have locked up a bid already, but they've made their jobs a hell of a lot easier on themselves when it comes to what they need to do in a brutal Big East. .500 in the conference looks a lot better when you have wins like these under your belt.

They can be better than what they were in last night's 89-81 overtime win over Kansas, though. Eric Devendorf and Jonny Flynn played sluggishly and selfishly through most of the night, sparked only when Flynn -- for a reason I couldn't really figure out -- got into a jawing match with his opposite number, Sherron Collins. His inspired play down the stretch -- combined with timely rebounding from Paul Harris and a smart decision by Jim Boeheim to switch to man-to-man defense -- won them the game. But if they can score 89 points (albeit in overtime) against a very good Kansas team on a night they aren't playing particularly well together, think of what they might be able to accomplish when they're clicking. In particular, I'm thinking the January 17 date in the Carrier Dome with Notre Dame is a must-watch; the Irish can fill it up and don't like to play much defense.

Speaking of Notre Dame, they're in the finals of the Maui Invitational tonight against North Carolina. I'll have a whole Maui wrapup post after those games tonight.

Viewing Alert: Syrcause at Florida

2008-11-24T09:27:00.000-08:00

7:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2.

I don't have too many rules, but two of them are:

1. Take every opportunity you can to watch The Marvelous Jonny Flynn; and
2. Any time a Calathes is playing, you should watch.

This game has both. Flynn is Syracuse's sophomore point guard, and Florida is led by soph Nick Calathes (whose brother, Pat, just finished up at St. Joe's). Both players are great passers, which is why I like them so much, but both can score, too.

Michigan Upsets UCLA

2008-11-21T00:06:00.000-08:00

The Bruins probably aren't the top-5 team their ranking coming into this one suggested, but tonight's 55-52 win is a huge step forward for Michigan.

John Beilein-coached teams are always going to be difficult to beat, because of the unique things they do on both ends of the court. The back-cutting offense that requires a full 35 seconds of defense (and ends with a three-pointer at least as often as layup) is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Beilein, but I think the 1-3-1 zone he employs on defense is the real innovation.

Beilein didn't invent it, of course, but he's the only major Division I coach that I know of that uses it almost exclusively. That's part of its genius. Breaking the 1-3-1 is different then breaking a more standard 2-3 zone. Against a 2-3, you want to move the ball around the perimeter, then zip it inside as the zone shifts. You can't do that against the 1-3-1, because of all the people in the middle. You have to get it to the baseline -- a dangerous spot against a 2-3 -- and then look to the opposite side of the court for a skip pass, an uncomfortable play for young players who are cautioned from day one against throwing long, cross-court passes.

UCLA, even with seasoned senior point guard Darren Collison, had trouble breaking it.

The Wolverines have another shot at taking down a Top 5 opponent, as they will take on Duke Friday night in the championship game of the 2K Sports Classic. Duke overcame a turnover-riddled first half against Southern Illinois' tenacious man defense to win 83-58. Michigan's 1-3-1 will pose a different type of challenge for the Blue Devils offensively. Coach K has named sophomore Nolan Smith his starting point guard, but I think senior Greg Paulus, with his experience, will be key. Smith may not be seasoned enough to effectively defeat the 1-3-1.

-Speaking of Duke-So. Illinois, this marked the first time I've heard Bobby Knight doing color on a broadcast, and I was impressed. Knight, who left Texas Tech in the middle of last season and moved into the ESPN studio, doesn't yet have the annoying qualities that many coaches turned color analysts do.

For one, he keeps his comments focused on the game going on, as opposed to say, Dick Vitale, who I like, but who turns his broadcasts into advertisements for the game of college basketball. Vitale always needs to be reined in by his play-by-play guy; otherwise, he would spend most of the broadcast talking all the players and teams in the nation other than the ones on the court in front of him.

Secondly, listening to Knight you can tell that he still sees the game as a coach. Several times, he referred to a string of possessions: "Three out of the last four possessions, Southern Illinois has gone inside"; "That's five consecutive trips Southern Illinois has only made one pass before their shot." I didn't get a chance to go back to see if he was 100% accurate, but it's clear that he sees the game on a macro level in the way that most analysts don't.

Bizarre Ending in the Desert

2008-11-20T01:14:00.001-08:00

I'm a day late posting this one, but I didn't get a chance to watch UAB's wild 72-71 win at Arizona in the quarters of the Preseason NIT until tonight.

In case you didn't see it, the clip is here. You can't really see the score, though, so I'll do my best to explain it:

UAB up 71-68 and the ball, like 45 seconds left. Arizona interim coach Russ Pennell orders the foul, which is something I don't think coaches do enough in these situations: Lengthen the game, make the other team hit free throws, don't give them a chance to run 30 seconds off the clock and ice it with a bucket. The gamble pays off, as UAB misses the front end of the one-and-one, and Arizona rebounds.

On the ensuing Wildcat trip, Arizona freshman Garland Judkins is fouled. He makes the first. 71-69, UAB, with about 35 seconds left. He misses the second, but UAB's Robert Vaden can't corral the rebound. The ball squirts to another Arizona freshman, Kyle Fogg, who lays it off the board and in. 71-71.

UAB inbounds, and Fogg -- apparently unaware that his bucket tied it up -- reaches out and grabs the Blazer ballhandler. As the crowd, the bench, and Pennell go nuts, Fogg still hasn't realized his mistake. Only when sophomore Jamelle Horne comes over and tells him does Fogg realize his error. He's distraught.

But he's also lucky, because UAB missed the front end of yet another one-and-one. Arizona calls timeout. The play was for Nic Wise, who missed a jumper (he shot a tick or two early, by the way, and he had taken a very ill-advised shot a possession or two earlier. The play should have been for Chase Budinger). At any rate, UAB rebounds, and Paul Delaney III begins dribbling upcourt, heaving a three-quarter court shot...

while Horne lunges at him with both hands from behind, grabbing his jersey!

The ref has no choice. Delaney's heave misses, but the whistle blows with eight-tenths of a second left. Intentional foul. Delaney hits one of two, UAB survives an adventurous inbounds pass, escapes the McKale Center with a victory, and punches its ticket to Madison Square Garden and a date with Oklahoma in the semis.

***
Hard to know exactly what happened here. It's possible that both Fogg and Horne mistakenly thought they were behind, though this is hard to reconcile in Horne's case, since he was immediately aware of Fogg's mistake and there was a timeout in between the first foul and the second.

ESPN analyst Len Elmore posited a different theory, which is that down three points with 45 seconds left, Pennell put the intentional foul defense "on," and either never called it "off" (unlikely, given his reaction to Fogg's foul and the fact that there was a timeout between the two fouls) or Fogg and Horne never realized it was "off."

At first, Elmore's explanation didn't make much sense. Why would any player think it was correct to foul when the score was tied? But as I thought about it more, it reminded me of a point I'm always making and a conversation I had about it with a mid-major Division I assistant coach I know.

I think coaches end up wasting timeouts in close games to tell their players something the kids should know already. For example, let's say Arizona had the ball with 40 seconds left down three. The Wildcats kids should know what the coach wants them to do there, whether it's run a specific play for a three or get a quick two and then foul. Instead, the coach ends up burning a timeout to remind them of the strategy, which incidentally gives the opposing coach the opportunity to communicate strategy to his players, get his personnel right (subbing in his best defenders or free throw shooters, for example), and maybe draw up a play or two for when they get the ball back.

My point is that the players should be smart enough to know what to do in these common lage-game spots. It's apparent, however, that a great many players don't. Whether it's because they lack "Basketball IQ" or they simply lose their heads in the moment, they have a tendency to do the wrong things in these spots. So my position has always been that coaches need to spend more time "coaching" these specific situations in practice.

I brought this up to my friend, the assistant coach, and he told me that they do coach situations; the kids just temporarily forget in the heat of the moment.

So, did Fogg and Horne suffer the same bizarre mental breakdown on back-to-back possessions, somehow forgetting the score? Or were they simply following orders; that is, had they simply not heard that the intentional foul play was off? I suspect we'll never know, as it's not in the team's interest to continue to discuss this in the media. It seems implausible that Horne, especially, would have realized the intentional foul was "off" when Fogg tied the score, and then not realized it seconds later.

But anything's possible, and Elmore and my friend certainly know more about the brains of college basketball players than I do. If Elmore's theory is correct, it goes a long way to proving my friend right.

VMI Beats Kentucky

2008-11-15T10:35:00.000-08:00

So, yeah, they moved the three-point line back a foot, and now my blog title suggests that I'm writing about high school basketball, or perhaps women's basketball. I know nothing about either, so for now, I'm continuing on with a mis-monikered blog.

A few things are going to have an effect on my posting frequency this year. One, I'm in law school. Two, I've started a Celtics blog, Rhymes With Hondo. Three -- which is a combination of one and two, really -- I've begun following the Celtics again so closely that given my school obligations, I'm sure I won't watch nearly as much college ball as I have in recent years.

Nonetheless, I'm going to try and post here -- or perhaps a new blog, if I can think of a good name -- as much as possible.

I get ESPNU now, which is great for my college hoops watching, bad for my schoolwork. I caught a little bit of UCLA-Miami (Ohio) Thursday night, but I don't feel like writing about it. I just wanted to weigh in with a few words on the big upset of the young season: Virginia Military Institute over Kentucky, 111-103.

First thing that struck me is that on the ESPN homepage, the teaser for this story was "VMI hands once-proud Kentucky stunning loss."

"Once-proud"? Wow. I wonder how that is going over in Bluegrass country.

Second thing: At the end of the above-linked game story, Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie is quoted: "I attribute this loss mostly to lack of leadership."

(I'm pretty sure it's improper to use two colons like I just did there.)

This is the second straight year that Kentucky has made early-season headlines by being upset by a team it has no business losing to. (Recall last year's 84-68 pasting at the hands of Gardner-Webb.) It's also Gillispie's second-year as coach. Sure, you need leadership from the players in college basketball, but you also need it from the coach. Gillispie needs to shoulder some of the blame for not having his team prepared -- again.

NBA Summer League: 7/16/08

2008-07-16T10:58:00.000-07:00

Finally catching up. Old posts:
7/12/08
7/14/08

Tuesday's games weren't great, we spent a lot of time bouncing around, so I only have thoughts on two of them:

Milwaukee 73, Detroit 59

After a dismal performance in his first outing, Joe Alexander looked a lot better here. He's still playing too fast and his shot still doesn't look that good to me (though it did go down a bit yesterday), but he played a much better game that included firing some pretty nice passes for assists. The more I see him, the more it looks like he's more comfortable playing a four-type game, which may be a problem at his size. His strength and athleticism will make up for some of that, though.

The Pistons were terrible without Rodney Stuckey, but Walter Sharpe showed a very nice, soft jump shot in limited minutes.

I was waiting all game for Alexander and the Pistons' Deron Washington to meet at the rim, but it never materialized.

Speaking of Washington, there was some kids in front of us who went and got his autograph on a basketball after the game. When they came back up, I saw that he had signed the ball "Deron Washington #8." Who sings a ball with their Summer League number?

Golden State 99, Charlotte 93

I'm higher on D.J. Augustin than most, but I really do think this guy can run an NBA team. He can't play defense, but he is super quick, the best passer here, and he finished almost everything at the rim against the Warriors, including two or three and ones. He's going to surprise some folks.

Wednesday's action includes the Knicks, Wizards, T-Wolves, Cavs, and Rockets, so I'm sure I'll have plenty more that tomorrow.

NBA Summer League: 7/14/08

2008-07-16T10:46:00.000-07:00

In my first post on the Summer League, I forgot to mention one thing: O.J. Mayo's defense. It's supposedly a strong point of his, but he hasn't looked great so far on that end of the court. In Saturday's game vs. the Bucks, for example, someone named Trey Johnson was tearing him up. Defense isn't always something to worry about in Summer League, because some teams simply choose not to play very much of it, but the concerning thing here is that Mayo looked like he was trying to play good D and simply wasn't able to keep up.

On to Monday's games of note:

New York 97, Cleveland 94

After a first half in which he scored zero points, Danilo Gallinari ended up with 14 points on 5 for 11 shooting, and did nothing to change my opinion that he's got an NBA-style game. It may have taken the first half to adjust to his teammates, who simply weren't sharing the ball. Is anyone surprised that the Summer League Knicks don't pass?

The real story of the day was Cleveland's J.J. Hickson, who was an animal on the glass and displayed good post moves, as well. He had at least two followup dunks on the offensive glass, and another two where he got the rebound but wasn't able to slam home the putback. The best part of his performance, though, was that he spent a lot of time going head to head with Ronaldo Balkman. There aren't too many proven NBA role players in Summer League, but when you find one, performances against them have a bit more meaning. Hickson dominated Balkman -- a noted energy guy, remember -- on the glass. Cleveland has to find a place to play this guy.

Houston 100, Phoenix 97

If we are to be more impressed with Hickson's performance based on who he played against, we must do the opposite for Robin Lopez. Lopez did some positive things offensively -- he made 9 of 11 free throws and hit a little lefty jump hook at one point -- but he's not in the NBA because of his offense. And his defense and energy left a lot to be desired. He pulled down just five rebounds in 27 minutes against Houston's no-name front line.The really interesting thing, though, is that after his first seven-or-so minute stretch on the court, during which he looked fine, he couldn't play two minutes afterwards without getting fatigued. Is conditioning going to be a factor, or was he sick or something? Hard to know, but it's certainly a concern. The Suns don't play again til Thursday, but then they play the next four days in a row. We'll see how Lopez holds up.

My boy Donte' Greene put on the show of the Summer League. The official box score has him down for 40 points on 12-of-20, including 5-of-10 from deep. The problem with Greene, as I mentioned to one of my friends who was watching the game with me, is that while he won't always shoot that well, he'll always shoot that much. He's got a great-looking shot -- as good or better than anyone here not named O.J. Mayo -- but he's definitely a chucker (although he did have the assist on a key basket on one of the game's final possessions. It's a littled crowded on Houston's wing, but I have always thought and continue to think that Greene has a chance to be very good in the NBA.

There was a guy in the crowd this day wearing a University of Miami Jack McClinton jersey. i think this marks the first time that someone other than McClinton himself was wearing his name and number.

NBA Summer League: 7/12/08

2008-07-14T10:34:00.000-07:00

19'9" is in Vegas all week for the NBA Summer League. Here are my impressions from Saturday's games(a little slow in getting them up, but hey, I'm in Vegas). I hope to get Monday's games up soon.

Sacramento 93, Toronto 86

Jason Thompson looked nothing like the 12th overall pick, or even a first-rounder. He was completely lost on both ends of the floor for a large portion of this game.

Fortunately for him, I thought that Glen "Big Baby" Davis looked lost during the first few games of last year's Summer League, and he looked good in his finale and then contributed during stretches of his rookie campaign. If Thompson can prove to be as quick a study as Davis, he might be okay.

Charlotte 81, Los Angeles Clippers 66

Eric Gordon didn't impress during his first game on Friday - 5 of 17 shooting - and he wasn't anything special in his second game, either. He went 4 for 10 from the field, and his jumper certainly has not, as yet, looked as advertised. He also left the game in the fourth quarter with a leg injury. They may very well have been keeping him out just as a precaution, but it's not a great sign for someone who spent a large portion of his lone college season hampered by injury.

One thing about Gordon, though; the baby fat he carried at Indiana is gone, as is the t-shirt he wore under his jersey as a Hoosier, often a sign that a player doesn't have an "NBA body." He's still short for a shooting guard, but he definitely has the arms and chest of an NBA player.

Denver 99, Philadelphia 85

The Sixers put in a horrible defensive effort despite having the best several players on the floor. Denver won convincingly despite having a roster full of marginal NBA talent.

Jason Smith played awkwardly, and we may quickly be seeing why Philly signed Elton Brand and drafted Marreese Speights, though Smith is big enough that he should get some minutes backing up Samuel Dalembert at center. Speaking of Speights, he, like Gordon, appears to have shed weight since college, and he too looks like an NBA player now.

Memphis 88, Milwaukee 79

The most entertaining part of this day came in the warmups to the day's final matchup, when Milwaukee's Joe "Vanilla Sky" Alexander and Memphis' Brent Petway held an impromptu informal dunk constest. Alexander had what a buddy of mine who worked at the scorers' table of home games for the Vancouver Grizzlies for three years called one of the best warmup dunks he'd ever seen (a windmill that I missed because I was watching Petway on the other end). My favorite of his was an alley-oop where he caught the pass at chest level when he and the ball were still on their way up, the extended it high above his head while gliding in for a jam. Think of a weightlifter doing a clean and jerk, and that's similar to the effect. Petway, for his part, may even be a better leaper, and his jam where he stuck his whole forearm in the basket, Vince Carter style, was sweet.

I've never been high on Alexander, and he certainly didn't change my mind with this performance. He made just 2 of 13 shots and grabbed three rebounds in 33 minutes. They played him in the post a little bit, and while the pro of this is that he is athletic enough to get off a turnaround jumper, he's not a good enough shooter to make it. The ball doesn't get up to the rim particularly softly, and he was offline more often than not.

Other quick thoughts from Saturday's games:

-Watching Mike Conley Jr. go head-to-head with Ramon Sessions made it clear why Conley was the fourth overall draft pick in 2007 and Sesssions went at 56.

-O.J. Mayo is a small dude. Not just short, which we knew, and not necessarily lacking definition in his upper body. He just doesn't have a particularly think torso and upper body. He's also something of a turnover machine who doesn't have the handle yet to play point guard in the NBA. But man, can he shoot. Hands down, he has the best looking shot of anyone I've seen in the first two days of games I've watched. I'm not talking about his form -- who cares about his form when his ball looks as good as it does? High-arcing, soft on the rim. A thing to behold.

-Poor P.J. Tucker. He's a terrific player and the kind of guy who will always kill it during Summer League and against less competition because of his effort and savvy, but he's too small to play four in the NBA and his skill set just doesn't translate to the three (and even there, he's undersized).

NBA Draft: Second half of the lottery

2008-06-27T22:20:00.000-07:00

First half is here.

8. Milwaukee - Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia. Along with Russell Westbrook, Alexander's the other guy who I just can't figure out why he shot up draft boards. He's really athletic, although it's probably overstated some because of his skin color.

To his credit, I will say that his shot looked a lot better towards the end of the year; off the top of my head, I can't remember seeing someone whose shot improved like that. And it wasn't just variance or him getting hot; he clearly started putting a lot more arc on his jumper.

Still, I don't think he has a great jumper, and his mid-range stuff lacks a shooter's touch. And for all his athletic dunks, he doesn't finish all that well at the rim (similar to Westbrook) if he's not jamming. He likes to operate on his own, which is something I hate, and he seems overly willing to settle for that inconsistent turnaround. It is kind of a weird fit, too, given that the Bucks had just traded for Richard Jefferson.

9. Charlotte - D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas. I like Augustin more than most do and I won't criticize the Bobcats for taking another undersized point guard, since they seem intent on moving incumbent Raymond Felton. I do think that Augustin can be T.J. Ford -- one of his predecessors at the helm of the Longhorns -- with a jumper. But he's really small and not as quick as Ford, and he's going to have a lot of problems on the defensive end.

Still, he has the ability to score in the lane, although I do think he'll be affected more than most by the increased physicality in the pros. He's going to have to do a lot of finishing while getting bumped, and I'm not sure he's strong enough to do that. He's a very good passer, and I think as long as he understands his role as a setup man and doesn't try to prove himself as a scorer, he'll be a good floor leader at the next level.

10. New Jersey - Brook Lopez, C, Stanford. Young big men who aren't sure things fall into two groups: Bangers and soft skill players. The former group -- guys like the Hawks' Al Horford, the Bulls' Joakim Noah, and Lopez' brother, Robin, who went five picks later to Phoenix -- tend to put up better numbers right away, but they also flatten out more quickly.

Brook falls into the latter group. I'd like to think the rebounding and shotblocking his brother trades on is in him somewhere, but he has to show a willingness to do it. If he does, his ceiling is high, because he's very skilled for 7'1". He's got a good shooting touch, although a limited post arsenal, which he'll need to expand if he's going to be a double figure scorer in the NBA, now that he'll be up against more guys closer to his size. I expect teams to be physical with him, and how he responds will go a long way toward defining his career, particularly early on. He's great value at 10, for sure.

11. Indiana -- Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona. Indiana later moved this pick to Portland. Bayless is great value here. He excelled in a pro style system at Arizona, and I think he's the peer of Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo in terms of scoring. He doesn't have their size, though, which ranks him below these guys.

Still, he can take over games without taking bad shots, which will serve him well in the NBA -- the Blazers can trust him with the ball. He's not the playmaker Rose is, but unlike guys like Mayo and Westbrook, he'll be playing alongside a two -- Brandon Roy, to be specific -- who has proven he can run the team.

12. Sacramento - Jason Thompson, PF, Rider. I actually saw Rider a couple times earlier in the year, but I don't remember enough Thompson to make an evaluation here. The Kings obviously saw something they liked. Shrug.

13. Portland - Brandon Rush, G, Kansas. Rush went to Pacers in the Bayless deal. He actually reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy in that he can penetrate -- even coming off the knee problems that kept him out of last year's draft -- and shoot. For those comparisons to be apt, though, he'll have to prove he can distribute the way Roy does.

I'm confident that he can; he's the kind of guy who makes the right decision with the ball. The Pacers have T.J. Ford to run the point now, but they eventually should feel comfortable giving him the ball to run the offense. A very solid selection at this stage; he's the kind of player you can't really see being a bust.

14. Golden State - Anthony Randolph, F, Lousiana State. Odd pick given that the Warriors took Brandan Wright last year, a similarly athletic four who really produced nicely once he got some run towards the end of last year. He runs well but is pretty limited offensively; not DeAndre Jordan (the thin, lanky freshman center from Texas A&M who went 35th to the Clippers) limited, but I actually like a guy like JaVale McGee (the lanky sophomore center from Nevada who went 18th to the Wizards) more in the half court. Fortunately for Randolph, Golden State -- at least under head coach Don Nelson -- doesn't do a lot of playing in the half court.

Randolph's length -- 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan -- and athleticism made him an effective shotblocker in his one season at LSU; he blocked 2.3 shots per game last year. However, at just 197 pounds, he's going to get pushed around a lot more defensively in the NBA, and that's going to stop him from being an effective on-ball defender. He'll still get his fair share of blocks coming from the weak side, but he won't be the defensive force he was in college.

NBA Draft, Part 1 - First Half of the Lottery

2008-06-26T23:02:00.001-07:00

Over the next few days, I'm going to go pick-by-pick through the NBA Draft. I'll do one post on the first half of the lottery, one on the second half of the lottery, one on the rest of the first round, and one on the second round.

1. Chicago - Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis In my mind, the clear top pick in the draft. Rose should be an elite point guard in the NBA for a long time. He's not the passer Chris Paul is, but he's close, and his size and strength make him a better finisher. I love the way he squares his body in the air when he gets into the lane, and anyone who followed his brief college career heard television announcers rave about his ability to absorb contact and finish.

ESPN's draft coverage team brought up another good point; his unselfishness. Rose spent much of the year deferring to his older teammates, and it was only at the behest of coach John Calipari that he began dominating games regularly at the end of the season. He's unselfish and a willing, capable defender.

I think his ending up on a Chicago team that is a lot better than the 33-49 record it posted last year is reminiscent of when David Robinson was hurt for most of the 1996-97 season. The Spurs won the lottery, drafted Tim Duncan, and, well, you know how this story ends.

2. Miami - Michael Beasley, SF, Kansas State I am not nearly as high on Beasley as many others are. He's a tweener, but in kind of an odd sense. He's big and strong enough, and a skilled enough rebounder, that he could be a 16/8 kind of player pretty quickly if he committed himself to playing the post. He didn't do that at KSU, though, and I found myself thinking, even as he poured in points from the perimeter night after night for the Wildcats, that he wasn't quick enough to play the wing in the NBA.

It's unclear to me how Miami plans to use him.

I don't want to say he'll be a bust, because he likely won't be by any reasonable definition. But I don't think he's going to be the prolific scorer so many seem to think he'll be, and I ultimately think he'll be better off as an undersized post who faces up on occasion, rather than strictly a wing player.

3. Minnesota - O.J. Mayo, G, USC First off, ESPN reported in the wee hours Friday morning that the T-Wolves were sending Mayo's rights to Memphis as part of a package that will net No. 5 pick Kevin Love and sharpshooting wing Mike Miller, among others. No, I don't know what Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace is thinking. Another comically lopsided trade on the heels of the Pau Gasol deal.

I didn't much like Mayo when I first saw him at Southern Cal. He looked completely disinterested and uncreative offensively, content to stand around shooting three-pointers -- which he admittedly hit, at times, with outstanding range. He grew on me throughout the season, and I came to appreciate his business-like demeanor on the court -- unusual for collegians but so common for professionals -- as a symptom of his being tabbed as a future stars since his pre-high school years.

The character stuff is an issue, but the more I read and hear about his work ethic, the more I like him. He has all the offensive tools he needs -- great range, a mid-range pull-up game, the ability to get to the basket, a serviceable handle, good court vision.

A buddy of mine compared him to Ricky Davis the other night, and I quickly objected on two grounds: Mayo passes the ball and is a willing and very capable defender. I worry a lot less about potential attitude problems if the player contributes those kinds of skills to his team. I think he has a shot to be a superstar, but the situation for him is awful in Memphis, without a legit low-post threat or a deadly three-point shooter. He'll score plenty of points next year, but he won't be very efficient.

4. Seattle - Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA For me, Westbrook's meteoric rise up the rankings was the most mystifying storyline in the weeks leading up to the draft. Westbrook is a bigger, more athletic version of Kyle Lowry, and while I like Lowry, I don't like him enough to spend the No. 4 on him, particularly when the alternatives are a dynamic scoring lead guard like Jerryd Bayless or a cornerstone big man like Kevin Love or Brook Lopez.

Westbrook will play hard-nosed D and should be good for a handful of highlight reel dunks throughout the season. But he hasn't got much of a shot, doesn't seem very creative finishing if he's not ramming it home, and doesn't have enough experience at the point to effectively run an NBA team, particularly a young one like the Sonics.

5. Memphis - Kevin Love, PF, UCLA A good pick for the Grizzlies until they traded him in the lopsided Mayo deal. However, the situation in Minny is a lot better for Love than the one in Memphis. His shooting touch and a passing ability that is practically non-pareil among men his size make him a perfect match to Al Jefferson in a high-low offense. Big Al J's imposing presence will help Love's rebounding totals and should leave him open for a garbage bucket or two cleaning up the glass every game. It will also be interesting to see how the Wolves use his astounding outlet passing ability.

Defensively, he should be okay with most fours; but he's not nearly big enough to guard any fives, so that task will fall on Jefferson, who is more comfortable guarding power forwards.

Love's athleticism has been called into question, but he has slimmed down in the offseason. And to borrow a phrase I generally hate -- he's just a basketball player. He'll find a way to get it done. Al Horford-like numbers -- ~10 points and 10 rebounds per game -- are a real possibility in his rookie season.

6. New York - Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy Don't know much about this guy, save the highlights I've seen. I've heard that's he a 6'9" Manu Ginobili. That's obviously a good thing.

I will say that of the few clips I did see during draft coverage, Gallinari showed a much more "playground" game than you see out of most Euros. He can shoot it from deep, but he seems very comfortable and capable of breaking his guy down one-on-one and going to the bucket. He seems to seek out contact, too, which will help him get to the line in the offense-friendly NBA.

Finally, I'm often skeptical of the Europeans because they put up modest numbers with relatively little experience -- the philosphy across the pond regarding playing time for developing players seems a bit different there than it is stateside. Gallinari, however, averaged 17.5 points and 5.7 rebounds in 34 minutes in the Italian Serie A, and 15 points and 4.5 boards in a couple fewer minutes in the EuroLeague. He's a much more proven player than we're used to seeing from Europeans of his age, even if we haven't seen much of him over here.

7. Los Angeles Clippers - Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana Gordon's been a really tough guy for me to scout because of injury and the whole mess at Indiana this year. I keep hearing things about his size, but I never saw much evidence of him using it, and he did wear a t-shirt under his Hoosier jersey -- usually the surefire sign that someone isn't strong enough to play in the NBA.

Still, he did average 20 points per game last year even with all the negative stuff that happened with his season. I'm not sure about his mental toughness -- he shrunk from an admittedly overly hostile crowd at Illinois -- and I definitely questioned his shot selection at times. Ultimately, this could be one of the those situations that happens occasionally, where a perfectly fine player gets a lower ranking in my mind because he never seemed to have a good game while I was watching.

In a draft that is long on potential but short on can't miss prospects, the Clippers could have done a lot worse.

NBA Draft early entries

2008-06-16T21:25:00.002-07:00

First and foremost, Beat LA!

Monday at 5 p.m. was the deadline for underclassmen who hadn't yet signed with an agent to drop out of the NBA draft and return to school.

North Carolina was the obvious big winner. Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green all opted to come back to Chapel Hill, where they'll join consensus national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough, who didn't even submit his name for consideration in the draft. Roy Williams' boys are the team to beat next year.

Note that my position is that leaving for the NBA Draft when you're a projected lottery pick is a no-brainer. It's just too much money to pass up. As a college basketball fanatic who is lukewarm on the professional league, I naturally want everyone to stay in school. But it doesn't make sense to pass up guaranteed millions. That doesn't mean that I think all lottery picks couldn't use extra seasoning in college or are can't-miss pros -- I don't, and I'd be ignoring history to say otherwise.

Therefore, I'm not going to talk about the no-brainers. Go to nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com and any underclassmen in the top 13 or so made the right decision. I'll talk about their pro prospects as we get closer to the draft, after the draft, and after the Vegas Summer League (19'9" will be making it's first-ever appearance in Sin City this July!).

For now, though, let's take a look at some of the less clear-cut cases. As always, I'm ignoring the foreign guys because I've never seen them play and I'd just be parroting what people who have seen them play say.

-Every year, there are guys who enter the draft simply because their stock will never be higher -- not because of a stellar performance in the previous season, but because their potential gets closer and closer to being unrealized every year they get older. The recent epitome of this category of player is, in my mind, Duke's Josh McRoberts, a projected lottery pick after his freshman year who fell all the way to the middle of the second round in last year's draft, where he was taken 37th overall by the Portland Trailblazers (he was a projected late first-rounder when he first declared, then fell significantly as pre-draft workouts went on).

This year, I think the group is headlined by Florida center Marreese Speights, who was supposed to break out during his sophomore season and performed inconsistently, at best, on a young team. Kansas' Mario Chalmers is another guy whose stock is at an all-time high (thanks to his MOP performance at this year's Final Four), although he doesn't fit in with guys like McRoberts and Speights because his reputation is based on performance, not potential. I haven't followed his career too much (hard to follow the Pac-10 out here in the East), but Cal's Ryan Anderson might fit here, too.

-An interesting corollary to this is the player who I feel enters the draft due to injury concerns. A recent example: Cal's Leon Powe. Powe was a double-double guy as a sophomore after leading the Pac-10 in rebounding as a freshman, but as a 6'7", 245-pound power forward, he's not the kind of player NBA teams are chomping at the bit to spend a first-rounder on. With two terrible knees, though, the logical explanation is that Powe's decision to enter the 2006 draft -- where he was selected 49th overall by the Denver Nuggets and subsequently traded to the Boston Celtics-- was based largely on not knowing how long his body would allow him to play. Particularly with his much-publicized family troubles, Powe needed to cash in while he still could.

(As an aside, I loved the trade for my Celtics when it was made, and I'm thrilled to see him produce the way he has this season, regardless of the fact that Doc Rivers seems intent on ruining his career by inexplicably refusing to give him a steady spot in the rotation in the playoffs).

Bill Walker could be this year's Leon Powe. The Kansas State freshman has already torn his ACL twice in his young life, and he suffered a partial tear of the meniscus in his knee during a workout this past weekend. The disgustingly-athletic Walker has not yet been slowed by these injuries, but repeated setbacks are enough to scare a young man into looking for a guaranteed paycheck, although ESPN's Chad Ford insists that Walker doesn't have a first-round promise (you may need to be an ESPN Insider to read that story. If you aren't, don't bother signing up).

Kansas' Brandon Rush might also fit into that category. He declared last summer, after his sophomore year, and was a projected first-rounder before he suffered an ACL tear in a pre-draft workout. After returning to school and helping the Jayhawks win a national championship, Rush isn't going to take a chance again (draftexpress has him going 17th to the Raptors; nbadraft.net has him at 22 to the Magic; and the fourth -- and latest -- version of Ford's mock has him at 15 to the Suns)

-There are a lot of guys who had an easy choice to come back to school and made the right decision. I won't list them here, but that first ESPN link has a lot about it, and you should be able to pick out their names pretty easily.

-A few guys made the correct, but difficult, decision to come back to school:

Chase Budinger, Arizona -- In another year, this smooth all-around forward is a lottery pick

Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, North Carolina -- These guys are going to benefit from playing together for another year. Lawson needs to prove he can stay in control, cut down on his turnovers, and be a consistent outside threat; NBA teams will be looking for Ellington -- whose offensive repertoire has been compared to Kobe Bryant's -- to stop disappearing for long stretches of games.

-And then there are just a lot of guys who I think made bad decisions, particularly in a year where the draft is so deep. Some of these guys are projected first-rounders who will get guaranteed money, and you might wonder how I reconcile this with my opinion that anyone who is a lock to go in the lottery should do so. Generally speaking, it's hard to know who has a first-round promise and there always seems to be someone who falls out. I think if you can be a lottery pick the following year, you're better off waiting and getting another year of experience -- particularly big men who have a lot of room to develop. It's good for your wallet, and good for your game.

Donte' Green, Syracuse -- Green finally started to show a post game toward the end of the year; a full season of that and weaker peers and he's a sure-fire lottery pick (one of the mock sites had him as high as No. 3 during the season before he displayed a fairly one-dimensional perimeter-oriented game);

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA -- Cashing in too late on what looked to be, two years ago, a promising career;

DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, and JaVale McGee, Nevada -- I like both of these seven-footers (well, Jordan's 6'11"), but height will always be in demand, fellas. I posted about McGee early last season (second item in that post) and Jordan's got a shot at being late-lottery, but they've got plenty of improving to do and would be better off in a weaker draft;

Darrell Arthur, Kansas, Richard Hendrix, Alabama, and JJ Hickson, North Carolina State -- Does anyone really see these post players contributing significantly to an NBA team any time soon?

Davon Jefferson, USC -- Sick athlete, but unpolished. Might slip into the first-round due to his potential, but if he stays in school another year, he doesn't have to worry.

CP3 on iVoryTowerz

2008-05-16T06:46:00.000-07:00

My weekly NBA Playoffs post on iVoryTowerz is up. It's about Chris Paul. I know the Bees lost last night, but I only write weekly for the site and there's a chance the Hornets will be out of the playoffs by the time I next file -- and I would be remiss if I didn't write something about him.

For the record, I'm in the camp that always thought Paul was better than Deron Williams, but never thought that either of them would ever be as good as they've gotten, never mind as quickly as they have. I thought Atlanta should have drafted him, but I didn't think it was as big as a mistake as it turned out to be.

Celtics stuff

2008-05-09T12:08:00.000-07:00

New iVoryTowerz post up about the Celtics getting their swagger back in Game 2.

The big thrill for me: Celtics Blog listed the column on it's expansive daily links page. Celtics Blog is a daily stop for die-hard C's fans like myself, so this is pretty cool.

new iVoryTowerz post

2008-05-02T08:57:00.000-07:00

New post up at iVoryTowerz, about Dallas firing Avery Johnson.

Unreasonable expectations for coaches is more of an NBA problem than a college problem, with a few notable exceptions (Steve Lavin being fired after taking UCLA to five Sweet 16s in six seasons and beating the No. 1 team in the country in four consecutive seasons comes to mind). Usually, however, coaches leave on their own terms -- usually for a job upgrade -- or are given plenty of opportunity before they are fired. That's even true at a place like Kentucky -- maybe the toughest job in America. Tubby Smith caught plenty of heat from the fans and the media, but it was his idea to leave the school and take over at Minnesota.

iVoryTowerz, DJ Augustin and Darren Collison

2008-04-25T08:51:00.000-07:00

-New iVoryTowerz post up.

-Texas says that they don't expect D.J. Augustin back, even though he has yet to sign with an agent. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the sophomore point guard returned, though. There's no shame, of course, in being badly out-performed by Derrick Rose -- as Augustin was in Texas' Elite 8 loss to Memphis -- but if Augustin stays in the draft, NBA types will remember his last game as a collegian as a poor performance against a player in the same draft class as him. That can't be good for his stock.

-The same is true of Darren Collison, who has yet to make his decision. The UCLA junior had a terrible game in the national semis against Memphis, outplayed by his freshman counterpart. In a draft as deep as this one, Collison could really help his ultimate draft position by staying in school another year.

Notes on content

2008-04-18T10:31:00.000-07:00

For the next couple of months, I'll be writing about the NBA Playoffs over at iVoryTowerz. This blog is called 19'9" - not 23'9" From the Arc and 22'0" From the Corner -- so I won't repost here. But I will link. First post is here; Boston over Los Angeles in seven is the Cliff's Notes.

As for this space, the only stuff going on right now are coaching changes and players deciding whether to stay in school.

Regarding the former, I don't care that much. You guys don't come to me for news, and without access to the principles involved, I don't have anything interesting to say about Keno Davis going to Providence or Travis Ford going to Oklahoma State. ESPN has this pretty cool page to track coaching changes, so if this stuff interests you, bookmark it.

Regarding the latter, well, nothing makes me happier than the NBA Draft. But right now, I'm going to wait to see who stays and who withdraws their name before breaking everything down. Once again, the Worldwide Leader comes to the rescue: Chad Ford has this page that tracks all the early entries, and apparently more time than I do to update it regularly. Good for him.

I'll keep updating this site with links to my iVoryTowerz stuff on the NBA, but unless something really big happens, I'm not going to do any college stuff here until we get closer to the draft.

How Bill Self nearly cost Kansas the title

2008-04-08T19:07:00.003-07:00

Why can't coaches leave well enough alone?

Holding a three-point lead roughly halfway through the second half of Monday night's championship game, Kansas coach Bill Self switched from a straight man-to-man defense to a box-and-one. Memphis immediately went on a 10-2 run. Had the Tigers made a few clutch free throws, this stretch would have decided the title.

So-called "junk" defenses like box-and-one are uncommon, and the reason they aren't used very often is that a couple of very specific conditions need to be met in order to make them more effective than a more standard defense. The specific conditions for the box-and-one are:

1)Standard man or zone defense is ineffective in stopping one particular player on the opponent; and
2)The opponent does not have a second player capable of taking over the game offensively.

Neither of those conditions were met when Self made the switch. Kansas had by and large defended a talented Memphis team very well. Chris Douglas-Roberts had a big first half and the Tigers were getting slightly better-than-usual contributions from Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier, but freshman phenom Derrick Rose had been held in check. And Rose, as he'd shown all year and especially in the tournament, certainly was capable of turning the game into his own highlight reel.

Heading into Monday night, it was widely acknowledged that Kansas couldn't possibly expect to shut down both Rose and Douglas-Roberts, but that keeping one in check would be enough to win. In other words, Kansas had Memphis more or less right where they wanted them.

By going box and one on Douglas-Roberts, Kansas basically forced Rose to shake his timidity and get involved in the offense, which is EXACTLY what Memphis needed.

Warm thoughts on a great final

2008-04-08T07:23:00.000-07:00

Over on iVoryTowerz, I've written a piece on last night's game. While I do have plenty of Xing and Oing to do about it, I meant it when I said I want to take a little time to appreciate just how good Memphis and Kansas are. More on the game tonight.

Final Four Thoughts

2008-04-05T22:22:00.000-07:00

-The two best basketball teams are playing in Monday's final. Kansas' first half against North Carolina was the best example of what I've been saying about the Jayhawks all year: They are outstanding both offensively and defensively. You just don't see a team as good offensively as North Carolina get shut down the way the Jayhawks shut them down in the first 20 minutes.

I thought they were in a class all their own, but that's apparently because I hadn't seen enough of Memphis. If both teams play up to their potential, we're in a for a doozy of a championship game.

-I though Bill Self used his timeouts well and Roy Williams didn't. Williams let the game get out of hand, electing to wait for the media timeouts rather than use one of his allotment of stoppages to halt Kansas' momentum. The Jayhawks got out to a 28-point first-half lead, and while the Tar Heels fought back valiantly to within four points, you can't let the game get that out of hand against a opponent of Kansas' caliber.

It was eerily reminiscent to last year's Elite 8 exit to Georgetown, where the Heels blew a late lead and got blown out in overtime. Williams let the Hoyas run off the first 15 points of the extra period without calling a timeout to stop the momentum. Same sort of thing tonight.

-Speaking of "eerily reminiscent to last year, a good chunk of Kansas' blown lead can be blamed on a second-half stretch where North Carolina stole several passes on the perimeter. How? The Heels were jumping the passing lanes, and Kansas wasn't adjusting, running the same perimeter action possession after possession. Last year, of course, Kansas lost in the Elite 8 after failing to adjust to the fact that UCLA knew what they were doing on offense and had figured out how to stop it.

-Self didn't manage his rotations well. Early foul trouble led to 13 first-half minutes for freshman forward Cole Aldrich, and the kid responded better than could have been expected, registering six points, six rebounds, three blocked shots and a steal. So why did he only play four minutes in the second half?

I know why: Because Aldrich only averages 8.4 minutes per game. Once the foul trouble to Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun was alleviated, Self went back to his regular rotation. In my opinion, he should have adjusted to the fact that Aldrich was playing out of his mind and stuck with him more in the second half, particularly during Carolina's comeback when the team just wasn't playing well.

-Kansas guards Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins allowed themselves to get caught up in the pace of the game too much. In addition to the quick or bad shots they did take, they seemed to be in a rush all night. Often, a Kansas big would get a loose ball or offensive rebound and kick it to one of these two, and then have to direct them to slow down. They'll have to be a bit calmer against a tough defensive team like Memphis -- possessions will be too valuable Monday night.

-I'm sticking with my pick of Kansas, but I'm not nearly as confident in it as I was, the way Memphis is playing. Should be a great one.

Final Four preview...

2008-04-04T11:07:00.000-07:00

Over at iVoryTowerz. Kansas over UCLA. You heard it here 3,451st.

Coaching news (Crean, Sutton, Olson)

2008-04-02T12:17:00.000-07:00

Busy day in the world of coaching yesterday…

1. Tom Crean is a good hire for Indiana. He’s an enthusiastic hard worker whose guard-oriented philosophy should resonate well with Hoosier fans who have grown accustomed to outstanding backcourt play over the years. Frankly, given the mess that former coach Kelvin Sampson created, I’m surprised the school was able to find someone as proven at a high level as Crean who was willing to take the job. The school and its fans should be thrilled.

2. The situation at Indiana got even more complicated with the news, just hours before the Crean story broke, that guards Armon Bassett and Jamarcus Ellis had been kicked off the team by interim head coach Dan Dakich. Seems like odd timing, and even though the players may have deserved it – both are repeat offenders who allegedly skipped scheduled appointments with the coaching staff and then failed to show up to run the laps they were assigned as punishment.

Their fates now rest in Crean’s hands, and here’s hoping he gives them another shot. They were betrayed by Sampson mid-season, forced to finish the year under a lame-duck coach who they didn’t sign up to play for. It doesn’t excuse their behavior, but they are still kids, after all.

It may be in Crean’s best interest to bring them back, too. If Eric Gordon goes pro, as expected, Bassett and Ellis would be the only remaining starters.

3. As sorry as I am that things didn’t work out for Sean Sutton at Oklahoma State, I’m equally as relieved for his physical well-being. Former Wisconsin and Washington State coach Dick Bennett may have had the most entertaining, sour countenance during games, but I’ve never seen a coach look as downright unhealthy as Sutton routinely did. He’d sweat through his suit, and I remember at least a couple of instances where it appeared he had to catch himself from fainting on the sideline.

Sutton’s resignation raises the interesting question of whether it’s a good idea for assistants to be appointed as head coaches before the current boss hangs up the whistle. Sean Sutton served under his dad, the legendary Eddie Sutton, for 13 years as an assistant, and was tabbed as the “head coach designate” before the 2003-2004 season. Sean hadn’t ever been a head coach anywhere before taking over for his dad two seasons ago, and it’s hard not to wonder if he wasn’t prepared for the enormous pressure he faced following in Eddie’s footsteps.

Tony Bennett – Dick’s son – has succeeded so far at Washington State under a similar arrangement, and Pat Knight seems to possess the demeanor to navigate any rough patches at Texas Tech, where he follows his famous father. But coming into a major D-One coaching job without any head coaching experience – particularly when you’re asked to carry on in the footsteps of a living legend – seems like it would leave you ill-suited to handle the pressure.

And1 The whole situation at Arizona this season has left me with a bad taste about a coach I’ve always admired. It was certainly fishy that Lute Olson took an indefinite leave of absence not long after bringing on Kevin O’Neill – who has plenty of head coaching experience – as an assistant. It got even more suspect when Olson later announced that he wouldn’t return during the 2007-2008, and was cryptic about the reasons why (it was later revealed that he was going through a divorce).

Now Olson is back, and announced that O’Neill will not return for the final year of his two-year contract, despite O’Neill’s very recent comments to the contrary. Olson’s private life is his own business and he certainly doesn’t owe the media or the general public anything (although as an employee of a state university, don’t the taxpayers pay his salary?), but I hope he’s been more forthcoming with his players during this whole ordeal. Those kids have trusted their futures to him, and deserve more than what he’s given the rest of us.

New iVoryTowerz post

2008-03-31T23:17:00.000-07:00

I've got a new iVoryTowerz post up about this being the best Final Four ever. I'm really enjoying writing for them. It's different than what I do here, but it's a lot of fun, and definitely a new challenge.

Davidson, Kevin Love

2008-03-30T20:21:00.000-07:00

The argument for putting the ball in the hands of your best player is a strong one, but I thought Davidson coach Bob McKillop made three errors in crafting the Wildcats' final possession against Kansas.

The first mistake came immediately after Davidson got the ball back, down 59-57 with 17 or 18 seconds left. McKillop spent his final timeout immediately, which meant that the Wildcats would start the possession 90 feet from the game-tying or game-winning bucket. I would have preferred that he instructed his team to inbound the ball to point guard Jason Richards, had Richards rush the ball into the frontcourt, and then called time. The three or four seconds it would have taken Richards to move the ball upcourt wouldn't be wasted, as Stephen Curry spent at least that much time dribbling it up on the final possession, anyway.

I've seen all or parts of five or six Davidson games this year, and one thing other than Curry's brilliance has struck me each time I watch them; they excel at scoring out of bounds plays. I don't have exact numbers at hand, but I believe the Wildcats scored at least a bucket or two per game in the tournament on inbounds plays in the frontcourt. In fact, the possession before, Curry had gotten free for the three-pointer that cut the Kansas lead to two on an inbounds play.

Granted, most of those plays (including the one that led to Curry's three) originated with the ball under the basket, and the Wildcats would have been taking the ball out on the sideline, in front of their bench. But McKillop has shown great skill in drawing up plays that lead to easy shots for his team, and I have to think that having Curry run around off of screens would have had the Jayhawks scrambling defensively. Even if they couldn't get the ball to Curry, Kansas surely would have been preoccupied with him, and that might have led to an easy look for another Davidson player. Remember that the Wildcats didn't absolutely need a three-pointer -- a two would've sent the game into overtime. With Jayhawk defenders keeping one eye on Curry and the other on their own man, it's not unreasonable to think that a set play off the inbounds pass might've led to an open look for Richards or perhaps Bryant Barr (whose 11 second-half points, including three three-pointers. kept the Wildcats in the game). Or maybe one of Davidson's bigs would have gotten lost in the flurry of screens, and would have been open in the paint for a layup.

Having done so, McKillop's second error came in having Curry bring the ball up. Curry had to have been the focus in Kansas' defensive huddle during the timeout, and every Jayhawk on the floor would have had the thought, "Where's Curry? Where's Curry?" on his mind during the possession. McKillop made it easy on them, however. Giving Curry the ball allowed the Jayhawks to keep him in front of them, rather than constantly having to turn their heads to locate him.

As good as Curry has shown he can be off the dribble, the majority of his damage comes with him running off screens. His considerable shooting ability is what everyone points to when they talk to about him as a scorer, but his craftiness in reading the defense and getting open is what allows him to get those shots. And again, if he's running off of screens, there's more of a chance that a Kansas player focuses on him too much and allows another Davidson player to drift for an open look.

Finally, the high screen that Davidson ended up running with Curry was the wrong play given the situation. It's generally an effective play and one that Curry has capitalized on frequently, but it only works if the man defending the screener is worried about his man rolling to the basket and doesn't adequately cover the ballhandler coming around the pick. Holding a two-point lead, the only way Kansas could lose in regulation was to give up a three-pointer, so they were surely going to allow Thomas Sander to roll to the bucket if giving Curry a look at a game-winning three-pointer was the alternative. At the very least, using Barr as the screener and running a pick and pop would have given the Jayhawks someone else to concern themselves with. Instead, the Kansas D didn't have to worry about Sander -- a 23 percent three-point shooter -- standing wide open at the three-point line. They doubled Curry, forcing him to give the ball up to Richards for a difficult three.

And1 Kevin Love's outlet passing ability frankly hasn't merited the attention it has gotten -- it simply doesn't generate as much "extra" offense for UCLA as everyone seems to think it does -- but that doesn't mean it's not remarkable. On Saturday's broadcast, CBS aired tape of a UCLA practice that showed Love sinking two-handed chest passes from halfcourt, three-quarter court, and fullcourt. I don't know and I don't care how many tries it took for him to make it -- the fact that he can do it, and do it often enough to be trying it during a shootaround, is simply amazing. His ability to put the ball in a particular spot with an outlet pass like that is incredible.

First weekend

2008-03-23T23:20:00.000-07:00

Quick thoughts on an incredible first two rounds:

-Stephen Curry's three (right around the 40 second mark, sorry about the ad) over Jeremiah Rivers to put Davidson up five late against Georgetown had me more excited about a basketball game than any shot since T.J. Sorrentine's 27-footer lifted Vermont over Syracuse in 2005 (about 1:00 in to that link). Just had a stupid grin on my face for a good 60 seconds afterwards.

Billy Packer had a nice tidbit -- Curry's 30-point performance against Georgetown tied his NCAA Tournament career-low (he had 40 in the opening round vs. Gonzaga, and 30 in last year's opening-round loss to Maryland). How about this one, though? In two tourney games this year, Curry is averaging 27.5 points per game in the second half alone. Amazing.

Georgetown guarded him well, too. You'd think that his second-half exploits could be attributed to defenders tiring while chasing him around the court, unused to defending the pro sets Gonzaga runs for him. But the kid had a defender on him and a hand in his face for most of the game Sunday, and it didn't matter down the stretch.

-I've been down on North Carolina because of their defense, but if they continue to play offense like this and like this, there defense won't matter that much.

-That Clemson-Villanova game was a microcosm of the two team's seasons. Villanova spent all year digging itself into holes before climbing out of them, and Clemson had famously blown it's opportunity to break a 52-game road losing at North Carolina earlier in the year with a similar second-half collapse. The line for the second half of Friday night's game was a pick 'em at halftime, and it had to have been one of the easiest bets of the tournament.

-I wrote in the past of Frank Martin's skill at going offense-defense with his star freshman, Michael Beasley, when the kid got into foul trouble. He did it again in the Wildcats' first-round win over USC. I haven't been very impressed with Martin in his first year as head coach, but give him credit for that.

-A lot of people will point to the turnover on the inbounds pass with 4 seconds left as the key play in Belmont's 71-70 loss to Duke on Thursday, but they wasted several possessions just a few minutes later, before they took the lead. Down three, there were at least two trips where they took bad threes, apparently thinking "If I can just make this shot, we'll be tied with Duke!" You can't waste possessions like that when you're trying to pull a big upset.

-Speaking of the Devils, no team should ever have a stretch where they go 0-15 from three-point land, as Duke did on Saturday in their loss to West Virginia. Once you miss 14 in a row, it's time to stop taking them. I think my buddy Kyle said it best: "The drive and kick offense needs someone to drive to get open shots." Well put.

-Don't know of a single American University alum who isn't proud of the way our boys played on Friday.

I broke my computer

2008-03-22T09:45:00.000-07:00

I realize this page is becoming dangerously close to a "Reasons why I'm not blogging" blog rather than a basketball blog, but Wednesday night, as I was getting ready to do a tourney preview, I managed to crack my laptop screen, ruining it. Non-work computer access has been and will continue to be a bit difficult to come by until I get it fixed.

I'm also squeezed by a new writing opportunity. The folks at iVoryTowerz have been kind enough to let me blog about the tourney over there. You can read my most recent post here, and here's one I wrote about the selection committee. I'm not sure if it'll turn into a regular gig, but I hope so. If it does, I'll be writing about more than just college basketball, but all the same, I'll keep all of my Xing and Oing over here, and write about bigger issues there.

If I ever get my computer back, that is.

Finally!

2008-03-14T23:38:00.000-07:00

American beats Colgate to earn the school's first ever NCAA bid...

Is it a sign that I’m getting old that I’d rather watch kids storm the floor than storm the floor myself?

It’s become a March ritual. Students fill the stands at men’s basketball conference tournaments across the country, with a precious automatic bid to the Big Dance – the NCAA Tournament – on the line. On the court, teams trade baskets and turnovers, digging in on the defensive end for the one stop that could give them the thing they’ve worked their entire lives for. At some point, one team puts enough distance between itself and the opponent that the outcome is no longer in doubt, and the bleachers bulge with 20-year-old kids – faces painted, voices hoarse. Then, the final buzzer sounds, and the students pour onto the court frighteningly quickly, a violent swell that breaks the tension that’s been building all afternoon and all season long.

It’s also a moment I’ve been waiting for since the fall of 1998, when I first set foot on the campus of American University in Washington, D.C. As passionate about basketball as anyone, I had long realized, at age 17, that my physical talents, such as they are, were far too limited to ever do anything on the court worthy of such a celebration. I had high hopes, however, that I’d one day be able to indulge in the ritual as a fan.

It never happened during my four years at the school, and I wondered if I’d ever have the opportunity to watch, in person, my alma mater earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament – a bid that had eluded the school in the 40-plus years it had participated in Division I basketball.

I’ve kept tabs on the team since I graduated, attending several games in each of the past couple of years. This season, life got in the way, and I never made it to a game, not even as the team triumphed historically over Maryland and won the Patriot League regular season championship. When we beat Army last Sunday to earn the title game on our home court against Colgate, I saw myself with one last chance.

I left work early today to get to the arena two hours before tip-off, to pick up my tickets and secure a decent seat in the general admission bleachers. Outside, students impatiently awaited permission to enter, chanting “Let’s Go Eagles!” and dancing to hip-hop music spun by a deejay. I observed the scene from several yards away, button-down shirt obediently tucked into khakis as young men and women had their bare torsos painted with familiar hues of red and blue.

* * *

With four seconds left on the clock, I knew what was about to happen. American was up five, and the game officials stopped play for an unnaturally long time to sort out some or other rule obscurity. Finally, the ball was back in play, and a final free throw yielded the game’s final score of 52-46. I allowed myself a quick glance at the scoreboard as the final second ran off, then turned my attention to the court as the swarm of students overwhelmed the security force meant to deter them, engulfing the players in a bouncing, jubilant celebration that lasted perhaps a bit longer than it should have.

Is it a sign I’m getting old that I’d rather sit at my computer right now, recording this memory, rather than going out and celebrating by getting so drunk that I struggle to hold the memory the next day?

Maybe. But I don’t care. I’m dancing.

Young or old, we’re all dancing.

The Patriot League (or, "Why I Love March")

2008-03-05T23:24:00.000-08:00

Quick note for those of you who don't follow the mid- and low-major conference tournaments.

Patriot League quarterfinals were tonight. Top-seeded American got a three-point play with 18 seconds left to down archrival Holy Cross 62-60.

They'll play fifth-seeded Army, who traveled to Bethelehem, Pa., and defeated fourth-ranked Lehigh 64-61 in overtime.

Colgate, the third seed, relinquished most of a 17-point lead, but hung on to beat No. 6 Lafayette.

And in the game of the night, seventh-seeded Bucknell hit a three-pointer at the horn in triple overtime to down second-seeded Navy in Annapolis.

Four games, four overtime periods, decided by a combined eight points.

Is March great or what?

Stanford at Arizona

2008-02-16T22:33:00.000-08:00

What a game in Tucson this afternoon! The game essentially turned into Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger vs. Brook and Robin Lopez. Bayless' 31 points -- which, following a 39-point game against Arizona State last weekend and 33-point effort against California on Thursday, gave him the Arizona record for scoring over a three-game stretch -- weren't quite enough, as the Cardinal prevailed 67-66.

1. I wrote recently about being sick of teams who go away from their bread and butter in crunch time. It's been a pleasure, then, to watch Stanford twice in the last three days. The Cardinal's offense today consisted of -- as it did Thursday against Arizona State -- throwing the ball into a Lopez on the block and letting the seven-footers go to work. Brook tallied 30 points against the Sun Devils in a game Stanford somehow lost -- blowing a nine-point lead in the last 4:35 before falling 72-68 in overtime -- and Robin had 14 to go along with Brook's 23 to key the win today. The Cardinal know that having two capable big guys is to their advantage, and the rest of the team does a great job of understanding that and feeding them down low.

2. I thought Arizona coach Kevin O'Neill made a big mistake bringing Jordan Hill back as early as he did with four fouls. The Wildcats were down 55-51 and there was 5:34 on the clock, but a minute earlier, Brook Lopez -- the more talented offensively of the twin brothers -- had gone to the bench with foul trouble of his own. On this possession, Stanford fed it into Robin, and seven seconds after checking back in, Hill had fouled out. Yes, the call was very bad -- Robin Lopez appeared to clear space with his elbows before jumping into Hill as Hill stood still with his arms in the air -- but it seemed unnecessarily risky to bring him back in to play against a weaker opponent. Brook Lopez had done a lot of damage against Hill in the first half, but by the second half had figured out to move to Brook's left shoulder to bother the jump hook (although to his credit, Brook still made a couple anyway with Hill guarding him that way).

The only justification for it that I could come up with is that Hill had been sitting with four fouls since the 9:14 mark, and that his replacement, Kirk Walters -- who doesn't play much -- may have been getting tired. If that was the case, O'Neill could have thought that he could buy a few minutes with Hill on a player less likely to draw that fifth foul. If that wasn't the case, it's an inexplicable move.

(Parenthetical aside #1: I suspect that most Arizona fans will crow about the bad foul call at the end that gave Brook Lopez the opportunity to hit the two-game winning free throws, but the disqualifying foul on Hill was just as egregious and ultimately more harmful. Indeed, on Stanford's last possession -- when Walters challenged Brook from one side and Budinger came in from the wing and cleanly stripped him -- the Cardinal probably would have ended up with the points anyway. Budinger blocked the ball down, directly into Brook's hands, and with Walters out of position, Brook had a clean path to the basket. Lopez would have had to just turn, maybe taken a dribble, and laid it in. The best-case scenario for Arizona would have had someone else fouling Lopez and sending him to the line, and a three-point play -- given that no Wildcat was in position to stop him but they all would have tried given the situation -- may have been likely. The call that sent Hill to the bench for the last five and a half minutes was a much bigger deal.)

(Parenthetical aside #2: I know Walter doesn't play much, and he did a valiant job despite being overmatched, but I'd like to think that a veteran like him could do a better job of fighting for position. Time and again in the second half, he set up on Brook Loopez's right shoulder and let him catch the ball. When you're at a height and skill disadvantage, as he was, you need to work harder early in the possession to keep your man from getting the ball.)

3. How about Jawann McLellan's three that tied it at 62 with 2:30 to play. Up until that point, McLellan had taken just three shots the entire game, and missed all of them. Eleven of the 15 shots Arizona had taken in the second half to that point had been taken by Bayless or Budinger, and there was a long stretch where the offense consisted of watching Bayless do his thing. (And what a thing it was! Bayless was getting to the rim and the free throw line at will.) Bayless again did much of the work on this play, driving past his man and drawing the defense before hitting a wide-open McLellan in the right corner, but for McLellan to be ready to take and make that shot speaks volumes about his focus and selflessness.

Maryland at Duke, Kansas State at Texas Tech

2008-02-14T14:27:00.000-08:00

1. As well as Duke has played, one thing worries me about them. Whenever they come out of a timeout, whenever they draw up a play for a shot out of the huddle, it's always a three. I noticed it tonight, against Maryland, when the Terps spent their out-of-commercial possessions getting the ball inside to Bambale Osby. Duke's got excellent three-point shooters and their edge over their opponents is definitely on the perimeter, but an over-reliance on the three-pointer has been the death of many a high seed come March.

2. I've noticed far too many teams getting away from what works for them mid-game. Georgetown's been doing it all year with Roy Hibbert, and tonight I watched it happen twice. Maryland would only occassionally throw it in to Osby in the post. Every time they did, something good happen, but the majority of their possessions consisted of Greivis Vasquez going to the basket. Vasquez scored a bunch of points, but I don't know why Osby was an afterthought.

Kansas State did a little bit better, reducing a 22-point deficit to four mostly on the shoulders of Bill Walker -- who was absolutely unguardable tonight -- and Michael Beasley. But they got away from it down the stretch, shooting three-pointers late (two of which, by Jacob Pullen, went in). Texas Tech wasn't doing anything differently defensively; in fact, K-State had been getting the ball to their freshman frontcourt duo just by tossing it up in the air and letting them go get it. I don't know if fatigue was a factor -- Walker wasn't even on the court for a few minutes -- but the Wildcats got away from what brought them back in the first place.

3. Kansas State finally played "young" tonight, especially in the first half and the first few minu.es of the second. Nothing was going right for them on either end of the court, and they allowed themselves to get frustrated, barking at the referees on every possession, concentrating on perceived missed calls rather than putting the ball in the basket and getting back on defense. Walker was a particularly egregious offender at the start of the second half, loafing back on defense and allowing Texas Tech three transition baskets right out of the gate. The Red Raider lead swelled to 22 at that point, and though Walker played valiantly in the Wildcat comeback, the lackadaisical play of him and his counterparts put them in a hole too deep to climb out of.

And1 Nice scene at the end of the game, as recently-retired Tech coach Bobby Knight choked back tears as he applauded his former team's first victory without him at the helm. Taking his place, of course, was his son and long-time assistant Pat.

I really like Pat Knight's demeanor on the sideline, by the way. I've never had a problem with his dad, but Pat is definitely a bit calmer, and I think that even keel will serve him and his teams well.

Robbie Hummel, Kalin Lucas, Tyler Hansbrough

2008-02-13T01:46:00.000-08:00

1. Robbie Hummel has some killer instinct. A late play in Purdue's 60-54 win Tuesday night encapsulates it perfectly. The Boilermakers were up 53-50, as the clock approach a minute and a half to play. They caught Michigan St. scrambing in defensive rotation, and the ball swung to Hummel on the left wing. The Spartans' Kalin Lucas -- more on Lucas later -- rushed out from the low post area at Hummel, leaving Keaton Grant open in the corner. Did the thought of flipping the ball to Grant -- a 43 percent three-point shooter, by the way -- ever cross his mind? I don't think it did. Hummel, who had 19 points at the time, let fly, and hit nothing but net. After Michigan St. answered with a bucket to cut the lead back to four, the 6'8" Hummel capped his night with an 18-footer over 6'10" Goran Suton, a shot he made despite lifting off with his left (opposite) foot forward.

Other than some early contributions from fellow freshman E'Twaun Moore, Hummel was Purdue's offense. After going scoreless for the first 13 minutes, he scored 13 points in the final seven minutes of the first half, including one spectacular play where he grabbed an offensive rebound, threw it to a teammate while flying over the endline, stepped back inbounds to receive a pass in the right corner, and drilling a three-pointer, part of a big run that gave the Boilers a 34-18 halftime lead. In the second half, he made a number of hustle plays, twice following his own miss from the perimeter with an offensive rebound.

But don't let his image and reputation as simply a hard-worker fool you. He's got a lot of assassin in him.

2. Hummel's performance on the big stage was matched by his freshman counterpart on MIchigan State, Kalin Lucas. The point guard is coach Tom Izzo's sixth man, but he came off the bench quickly as the Spartans went more than four minutes before scoring their first points. Given that Michigan State's veterans and scoring leaders -- Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan -- finished the first half with zero points between them, it's safe to say that as bad shape MSU was in heading into halftime, it would have been so much worse without Lucas.

And where Neitzel continued to struggle all night, Lucas poured in 20 points, including six on drives down the stretch when Michigan State needed baskets. He did everything he could to give them a chance to win.

3. I can officially say that I have no idea what kind of professional player Tyler Hansbrough will be. My instinct is to say "not a very good one," because his main avenues of scoring will be of dubious utility at the next level. For starters, he's not getting to the line nearly as much in the Assocation as he does now.

Secondly, it seems that he releases almost all of his shots in the post from some weird angle below his shoulders, turning his body to shield the ball and attempt to draw a foul. Against bigger, savvier defenders, this isn't going to cut it.

But then I see performances like his in the first half on Tuesday night in Charlottesville, and I start to wonder. Hansbrough's fist five field goal attempts vs. Virginia last night: 12-foot turnaround from left baseline, 17-foot jumper from top of key; 12-foot turnaround from left baseline; 15-foot faceup jumper from right wing; and 15-foot jumper after jab step from the right wing.

Swish. Swish. Swish. Swish. Swish.

"Psycho T" has practically unparalleled energy and desire, so it's probably safe to say no matter the composition of his offensive game, he's going to have a job in the NBA, at least for a few years. If he can prove that he's got an offensive arsenal to go with his size, athleticism, and determination, then he'll help his draft stock considerably -- and I think rightfully so. I'd need to see more of it to make a determination, but so far, I've liked what I've seen.

And 1 One more thing about Purdue. Watching this young group -- the Boilers started two freshmen, two sophomores, and a junior Tuesday night, and have only one senior in their regular rotation, I couldn't help saying to myself, "These guys are going to be contenders next year."

Last team I said that about around this time? The 2002-2003 Syracuse Orange, otherwise known as the "2002-2003 national champions."

Of course, I'm not expecting history to repeat itself by Purdue winning the title a year "early." There are significant differences between the two clubs, not the least of which being that the Boilermakers don't have anything approaching Carmelo Anthony. Hummel, Moore, and Grant each shoot better than 40% from the three-point line, but none of them are as automatic as Gerry McNamara was (no shame in that, of course). They don't have a post threat the likes of Hakim Warrick, as much as Warrick liked to play facing the basket.

But, they do defend well, and have a young coach, and together they don't have enough experience to know any better. Is a Final Four run likely? No, but it's not out of the question, either. Keep an eye on these guys.

Kansas, Clemson, bizarre endings

2008-02-12T12:59:00.000-08:00

1. Despite their 72-69 loss at No. 11 Texas tonight, I still think Kansas is the best team in the nation. Take a look at the other title contenders; all have a flaw, a question mark. North Carolina can't defend. UCLA labors to score on occasion. Memphis can't shoot free throws. Duke -- once again -- lacks a big man.

Kansas can answer all of those those questions. They defend extremely well, particularly on the perimeter, where their ball-hawking guards average about seven steals a game. They hit about 70 percent of their free throws. And they have quality depth inside and outside.

They also don't rely too heavily on the three-pointer, despite hitting the deep ball at a 37 percent clip. I think my favorite stat of the college basketball season is this: In KU's 100-90 win over Baylor at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, the Jayhawks went 0-for-9 from three-point range. If you can drop 100 points by going to the basket, dumping the ball inside, and getting to the free throw line, you aren't vulnerable to the cold streaks that are known to sink teams that rely too heavily on the three-point shot. The threes they do take are most often of the inside-out variety, which usually are the best looks you can get from distance.

2. Clemson's incredible collapse at Carolina - moving their all-time road record at UNC to an 0-53, an NCAA record for road losses versuse one opponent - happened yesterday, and I wasn't planning on writing about it, but one part of it has been bugging me all day, so here we are.

Having committed three straight turnovers that Carolina used to cut an 11-point lead to five with two minutes left, Clemson set up in a full court trapping defense. The Heels broke it easily, and the ball quickly found a wide-open Danny Green, who knocked down a three to cut the lead to two. Cliff Hammonds answered for Clemson with a three of his own after running the shot clock down, but then the Tigers did the unthinkable: They set up in the trap again! Carolina broke it easy for a second consecutive possession, and it again resulted in a quick, open look for Green, who drilled another triple.

Why, why WHY, Oliver Purnell?! Yes, your press helped force turnovers on UNC's first five possessions, but after that, it had been fairly ineffective. And besides, you didn't need a steal: You needed UNC to take some time off the clock. The only thing worse than letting the Heels score is letting the Heels score quickly. And you let it happen - twice, on back-to-back possessions no less.

Teams are often criticized for taking tough three-point shots during the endgame instead of taking a quick two and then looking for a steal or a foul. This was the defensive equivalent of taking taking a three when the situation didn't call for it yet, and it's part of what cost Clemson the game.

3. Still waiting for Georgetown to play up to its reputation, a reputation which I am on record as saying months ago is undeserved. I can't remember being as unimpressed with a team that has stuck around in the Top Ten as I am with the Hoyas this year.

At any rate, I can't write anything about their 55-53 win over Villanova because the ending was so infuriating. For those who missed it, an official whistled Wildcat freshman Corey Stokes for ever so slightly brushing Hoya senior Jonathan Wallace as the latter dribbled up the left sideline, 70 feet away from the basket, with less than a second to go. Under normal circumstances, this was a ticky-tack foul. Given that it stopped the clock with 0.1 -- that's one-tenth -- seconds left, it was an UNTHINKABLE call. PREPOSTEROUS and DISGRACEFUL come to mind, as well. Wallace hit both free throws, and the Hoyas escaped again.

I differentiate this call and the non-call at the end of last week's Indiana-Illinois contest. In that one, an Illinois player grabbed D.J. White's arm as White was launching an 80-foot Hail Mary with the score tied and the clock nearing zero. While it was highly improbable that White would make the shot, there's a threshold for the amount of contact you can reasonably let go, and this exceeded it. Indiana ended up winning in double OT, so no harm, no foul, I guess.

Not so here. Villanova deserves an apology, and they have a chance of getting it. They also deserve an extra five minutes to decide the outcome of this game -- a game they needed to keep their dimming NCAA hopes alive -- but they won't get that.

The Rutgers women, however, might get what they deserve. Roughly the same time Georgetown was being gifted their game against Georgetown, a bizarre scene was unfolding in Knoxville: the second-ranked Vols were down one with under 30 seconds. They missed one shot, and Candace Parker grabbed the rebound and missed again as the clock apparently ran out. Inexplicably, it stopped with 0.2 -- that's two-tenths, for those keeping track -- allowing Nicky Anosike to grab an offensive rebound and get fouled before the clock started again and the buzzer went off. Anosike, to her credit, drilled both free throws and Tennessee had a controversial 59-58 win.

It's irritating that the clock stopped, but I don't know if a person is to blame or the equipment malfunctioned or whatever. What bothers me most is that the officials looked at the tape and determined that Anosike -- who was in the process of catching the ball as the clock froze -- was fouled within two-tenths of a second (remember that NCAA rules don't allow for a catch and shoot with fewer than four-tenths on the clock).

I don't know what the rules for appeals are, but I'd like to see the NCAA make good on this one and award Rutgers the victory. I suppose it's too much to ask for Tennessee -- who, as the home team, is in charge of the clock -- to take that step itself.

And1 Don't tell anyone, but I liked the pink uniforms the Rutgers women wore tonight. Great cause, too.

WVU/Pitt, Illinois/Indiana

2008-02-08T00:56:00.000-08:00

1. All credit to Ronald Ramon for drilling the triple at the buzzer that gave Pittsburgh a 55-54 win over West Virginia Thursday night, but don't overlook Keith Benjamin, who provided the assist on the play. Panthers coach Jamie Dixon had called timeout to set up a final play, but by the time Benjamin received the ball -- with three seconds left, at the top of the key -- the play had broken and Pittsburgh was in scramble mode. Rather than panicking, Benjamin drove left as the clock wound down. The defense converged on him as the clock wound down, but again, he didn't lose his poise. Feeling Ramon's defender slough off, he flicked a pass to the wing, giving Ramon just enough time to catch and fire the game-winner.

In professional basketball, you rarely see players rush in the waning seconds, but college is a different story. I was even a little surprised that Benjamin didn't panic and loft an almost impossible three-pointer when he first received the ball, and even more shocked that he didn't toss up a runner when given the first sliver of daylight on his drive. But his patience, as much as Ramon's shot, won the game for his team.

(Also, if WVU wants to complain about Pittsburgh's bucket that pulled them within one, I'll listen. The Panthers were inbounding the ball under their own bucket down 53-50, and Benjamin threw a pass up high to DeJuan Blair in the post. Blair went up high with one hand and deftly tapped the ball back to Benjamin before coming down with it. It appeared to me, however, that Benjamin only got one foot down before catching the ball, which means he should've been ruled out of bounds. How ESPN announcers Dave Pasch and Len Elmore -- who impressively noted that the play was made possible by the WVU defender leaving Benjamin to double Blair as the pass went up -- missed this is beyond me, given how many times they showed the replay).

2. The millionth example of a coach overthinking something: Indiana and Illinois tied at 69 with two seconds left in overtime Thursday night. On the line is Shaun Pruitt, a 55% free-throw shooter who missed a pair of foul shots at the end of regulation that might have won the Illini the game. His first attempt is woefully short, a line drive that richocheted hard off the front rim. He turns away from the basket, talking to himself in frustration. Teammates Demetri McCamey and Jeffrey, son of Michael walk to the line to give him some words of encouragement, while ESPN color analyst Jay Bilas commends them for trying to pick up a teammate. Still, Pruitt looks like he's a serious underdog to make the second.

Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson calls timeout, trying to ice a shooter who simply cannot be iced any further.

The whole point of calling a timeout and making a kid think about it to get in his head, to get him out of his rhythm. Pruitt was already in his own head, and the only rhythm he was feeling was the sound of his repeated bricks from the stripe echoing in his head.

Yeah, I know, Pruitt missed anyway -- long this time -- and Indiana went on to win in double overtime. But the point remains that nothing that could have happened during that timeout would have made Pruitt any less likely to make that shot. Instead, he gave the young man the opportunity to re-compose himself, and gave the Illinois coaches the chance to calm him down.

It was also Indiana's final timeout, which meant that once Pruitt did miss, the Hoosiers couldn't stop the clock and set up a play for a long inbounds pass and a shot.

3. Really impressed with Indiana winning in that environment, full of venom recognizing Hoosier star freshman Eric Gordon's first visit to Champaign. (I don't have the space to get into why Illini fans hate Gordon, but briefly, Gordon had apparently committed to Illinois before enrolling at Indiana, and the guys in orange aren't sure that Sampson's recruitment of Gordon was on the up and up. For more details, try Google).

To be honest, I expected a strong effort at the outset from an Illinois team that has this year shown plenty of pluck but little ability to score. So I wasn't surprised, not a bit, when they came out defending well, and my eyebrows raised only a bit when they hit three-pointers on four consecutive possessions during one stretch in the early-going. If Indiana could weather the early storm and not let the crowd -- booing on every Gordon touch -- get to them, eventually their superior talent would be enough for them to win comfortably.

The Hoosiers were up to the task despite a rough first half for Gordon. At the break, Illinois held a four-point lead, but I really felt like there was no way a team that has been as anemic offensively as they have could score enough to beat a good team like the Hoosiers.

But then, the second half started, and McCamey was still hitting threes and the lead stretched to double digits. At that point, with one of the toughest crowds in the country booing and yelling who-knows-what at their team's 18-year-old best player, it would have been hard to blame Indiana for packing it in. Instead, the Hoosiers hung in there, even as Gordon continued to struggle.

But they hung in there, getting a basket here and there, a stop when they needed one, and eventually Illinois' shots -- particularly from the free throw line -- stopped going in. Credit the Hoosiers for still being in the game when they did.

Going Back to School

2008-01-23T22:55:00.000-08:00

Tuesday night, I finally did something I have wanted to do for a long time, but could never seem to make the time to do: I went to a high school basketball game.

I play in a pickup basketball league that plays up to four times a week at Gonzaga Prep in D.C., and the guy who runs it stays pretty connected to the program. A couple weeks back, he sent out an email alerting us to a couple of upcoming big games, against DeMatha and Bishop O'Connell. I couldn't make the DeMatha game, but went with a buddy last night to see Gonzaga, the top-ranked team in the Metro area, handily beat O'Connell, who I think were ranked fifth coming in.

The Washington Catholic Athletic Conference, to which both of these schools belong, is a high level league. Quite a difference, on the court at least, from the high school ball I played, back in Vermont some ten years ago. It's remarkable how fast and athletic these kids are.

Despite the big discrepancy in terms of the quality of the game, I got that warm feeling when I realized that high school basketball is still high school basketball. There was a concession stand selling hot dogs and chicken fingers and soda for reasonable prices. Parents sat behind their son's benches and cheered at the top of their lungs; ex-players stood in the corners and quiety drank in the action. Student managers dressed in Catholic school uniforms diligently took stats, collected warm ups, and distributed water in squirt bottles -- the same kind of bottles, I might add, that I used when I played. Students from each school gathered together to cheer on their players, taunt the opposition, and trade playful chants back and forth -- one of the few ways, it seems, that young men and women can have innocent fun these days. After the game, parents and friends of players hung around the court to congratulate and console the young men in the locker rooms.

Five dollars and three hours well spent.

Fun anecdote: I was sitting behind the O'Connell bench, because a former co-worker of my companion to the game has a kid who plays for them. We sat on the top row, in the middle. Because the Gonzaga gym isn't planned particularly well, the seats directly to my left had a partially obstructed few, and I patiently waited as a tall man who I recognized as someone I should know walked past me to sit down, only to turn around and come back when he recognized the situation. He gave me a friendly smile and a pat on the shoulder in recognition of the fact that he was in my way.

After he left, my friend nudged me. "You know who that was?" he asked. I told him that I recognized the man, but couldn't figure out who it was. "Tommy Amaker." Of course! It had occurred to me that college coaches would be at the game, but I guess I hadn't properly prepared myself to see one.

Amaker, formerly an assistant at Duke and head man at Seton Hall and then Michigan, is a D.C.-area native. Now the head coach at Harvard, he was at the game to take a look at two of his recruits; Bishop O'Connell's Frank Ben-Eze and Gonzaga's Max Kenyi.

My understanding is that Ben-Eze, the big Nigerian, doesn't have a lot of basketball experience and is something of a project. I couldn't tell you, because he spent most of the game on the bench in foul trouble. But man, was I impressed with Kenyi! He apparently has a reputation as a defensive stopper, and he lived up to the hype on that end, holding Georgetown-bound Jason Clark to 11 points, half his average. But he was equally spectacular on offensive, netting 22 points on an array of three-point jumpers and drives to the basket. Despite having the skinniest legs I've ever seen on a basketball player -- he has no visible calf muscles to speak of -- he's quick and athletic, with an excellent vertical leap.

Despite the presence of Clark and Bishop O'Connell sophomore Kendall Marshall (an early North Carolina commit whose speed with the ball will help him fit right in in Chapel Hill), Kenyi was the best player on the court all night.

It was a terrific night, even though the game wasn't close (83-62 was the final). The only sour note was the Bishop O'Connell coach losing his composure in the third quarter, spending most of it barking at and patronizing the officials. Most of the quarter was gone before he ever said anything instructional to his team. By and large they looked like a well-coached squad and I hope that Tuesday was an anomaly borne out of frustration, but he let his team down by allowing himself to be distracted like that.

Still, it's something I'd like to do again very soon.

And1 Want to give a quick shout out to Kentucky point guard Ramel Bradley, because I don't think he's getting enough credit for what he's accomplished in the last five games. Bradley played 39 minutes in a fast, uptempo game against Tennessee's tenacious defense last night. The inside duo of freshman Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson keyed the victory, but Bradley never wore down despite the fact that he had AVERAGED 44 minutes per game while playing every second of the previous four contests (a stretch which included three overtime periods). By any measure, it's been a rough year so far in Lexington, but the Wildcats have started to look better, with consecutive home wins over top 15 clubs (Vanderbilt and Tennessee) and gutsy losses against good teams in tough environments (Mississippi State and Florida). Make no mistake, Bradley's the biggest reason why the season isn't completely lost.

North Carolina, Frank Martin, Vanderbilt, Shan Foster

2008-01-21T21:54:00.000-08:00

1. That was a different Maryland team on Saturday than we've seen at any other time this year. In their 82-80 upset of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, the Terps had everything going: James Gist hitting turnaround jumpers; Bambale Osby finishing around the goal with both hands; Landon Milbourne and Cliff Tucker nearly doubling their season scoring averages; everyone with the exception of Greivis Vasquez limiting their turnovers, etc.

As hard as I've come down on North Carolina because of their defense, it'd be easy for me to credit Maryland's offensive performance Saturday on poor Tar Heel D. However, with the notable exception of some lapses in the transition game, I though UNC atually defended well on Saturday; Maryland just made plays. Rather, it was on the offensive end where they came up short. They just couldn't get a big hoop when they needed one. I thought Wayne Ellington may have forced the action a little bit.

2. Haven't been too impressed with Kansas State coach Frank Martin this year, but kudos to him for the way he used Michael Beasley in the first half of Saturday's 75-54 win over Texas A&M. The freshman picked up a couple of quick fouls, and after letting him sit for a bit, Martin began shuttling Beasley in and out -- the kind of offense/defense substitution most coaches reserve for late in games. I'd never seen it done that early, but it worked very well. On K-State's first two possessions after Beasley returned, they got four points: two on a bucket by Beasley himself, and another two when the A&M defense reacted to Beasley and left another Wildcat open.

3. Finally saw one of Vanderbilt's good performances Saturday, a 92-76 thumping of LSU. Impressive outside shooting from the Commodores; they were 8-for-15 from deep at one point, before some garbage-time threes put their final mark at 9-for-20. What I didn't like, however, was how often Vanderbilt's players -- in particular point guard Jermaine Beal -- eschewed open lanes to the basket in favor of kicking it out for a three.

There's nothing wrong with penetrate-and-pitch, but it should only be employed when the defense collapses on the guy driving the ball. If the penetrator passes it out before the defense reacts, then a)he's likely giving up a very high percentage shot of his own; and b)the man he's kicking the ball out to won't be open, resulting in a difficult look. The 'dores knocked those tough shots down on Saturday, but the three-ball is a dangerous weapon to rely on.

And1 I'm not sure Vandy's Shan Foster is quick enough to play in the NBA. One thing he does have going for him is the high release on his jumper; he lets it go from up above his head. At 6-6, he should be able to get that shot off against most two-guards in the Association, but the defensive end is a completely different story.

Roy Hibbert, Luke Harangody, Florida

2008-01-14T02:09:00.000-08:00

Been really busy applying to law school. Probably won't be updating regularly for a couple more weeks. But here are three quick thoughts.

1. His game-winning three-pointer notwithstanding, Georgetown's 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert was 6-for-13 for 17 points on Saturday afternoon. Much of that came against 7-foot-3 sophomore Hasheem Thabeet, one of the nation's best shotblockers.

It's been my contention since last year that Georgetown misuses Hibbert. I maintain that he's what makes the Hoyas a top ten team and legitimate title contender; their guards are relatively ordinary for an elite team. And yet Hibbert often seems to be the afterthought on offense.

It struck me as funny, then, that Georgetown went to him on the team's first possession Saturday and never really stopped. On the day, Hibbert took 14 shots, tied for a season-high. Obviously, there's a motivation for attacking Thabeet to get him in foul trouble, and it worked, as Thabeet had to sit for stretches in the second half. But if Hibbert can be that effective against perhaps the nation's premier post defender, just think of the damage he could do against the less competition he's faced this year. We'll see what he does Monday night against Pittsburgh.

2. There aren't too many differences between North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough and Notre Dame's Luke Harangody. In fact, the biggest one is probably that Hansbrough plays for the number-one team in the land and Harangody does not. There are some slight differences in their games -- Psycho T's a little more athletic; Harangody has better footwork and a softer touch -- but they are really similar players. Given the press that Hansbrough gets, that means Harangody's underrated. And he's a year younger.

3. Florida has impressed me with their play down the stretch this past week. I caught two of their games and was struck by how well they played in crunch time. At Alabama on Tuesday, the Gators battled to find themselves tied at 71 with about seven minutes remaining. It was one of those moments where you expect the more experienced team to pull out the victory, particularly at home. Instead, Florida -- who as you know, lost four players to the NBA Draft this summer and don't have a single senior on the roster -- went on an 11-0 run in the next three minutes to put the game away.

Then, Saturday, against an undermanned Auburn squad, they let the visitors hang around a little too long. The Tigers trailed by just five with 4:29 on the clock. Again, it was one of those situations where you learn a lot about a team. The young Gators' response? Another 11-0 run to close out the game, as they held Auburn scoreless the rest of the way.

These are the marks of a veteran team, not one as young as Florida is. After back-to-back national championships, we expected this to be a rebuilding year for coach Billy Donovan, and he certainly brought in some great players with which to build. But look out for them this year -- they may be ready to contend in a relatively weak SEC sooner than any of us thought possible.

American, JaVale McGee, Bobby Frasor

2007-12-28T00:13:00.000-08:00

1. The few days before Christmas is typically something of a dead time for college hoops. It wasn't this year, with a great slate of games on Saturday (including Memphis' dismantling of Georgetown and Michigan State's dominance of Texas). For me, however, it was, as I spent the weekend in Boston, watching the Celtics defeat the Bulls and engaging in all manner of debauchery with friends old and new.

That was unfortunate for me, as it meant I was away from home when my alma mater, American, beat Maryland for the first time in 81 years. Now, Maryland -- coming off a home loss to Ohio University -- is hardly the ACC power they usually are, but the 67-59 victory is still a huge win for the Patriot League program, perhaps the biggest in school history. (The other contender is a 62-61 victory over fifth-ranked Georgetown in 1982; American will be celebrating the 25th anniversary of that win when they play the Hoyas on Saturday).

Despite the fact that Maryland was clearly vulnerable heading into this game, the deck appeared stacked against AU. To begin with, let's look at the starting backcourts. American's Derrick Mercer and Garrison Carr are listed at a very generous 5'9" and 5'11", respectively (I think Mercer is shorter than me, and I'm a quarter-inch or so shy of 5'9"). Maryland's sophomore tandem of Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes stand 6'6" and 6'4", respective. That duo did their damage offensively -- Vasquez had 28 points and Hayes had 16 (that's 44 of the team's 59) -- but they couldn't keep Mercer from scoring a team-high 18.

Secondly, the Terps frontcourt isn't that much taller than the Eagles', but it's a lot stronger, deeper, and more talented. Yet James Gist, Braxton Dupree, Landon Milbourne, Bambale Osby, Dave Neal, and Dino Gregory combined for just 14 points on 4-for-24 shooting. Meanwhile, they gave up 17 points to Bryce Simon, 12 to Brian Gilmore, and the Terps were outrebounded 40-33.

As I said, I was out of town, so I didn't see the game, but the box score tells some of the story. Typically, when a team like American beats a team like Maryland, particularly on the road, they hold a big advantage in something like three-point shooting or turnovers. That wasn't the case Saturday. The Eagles shot the deep ball well (42.1 percent) and only turned it over 12 times, but Maryland had comparable totals (41.7 percent and 13 turnovers). The Terrapins even hit 10 triples to the Eagles' eight.

No, American beat Maryland simply by playing better all-around basketball. They outworked their bigger opponents, outrebounding them and getting to the line.

I've got a friend on the AU coaching staff, and I hope to talk to him a bit more to find out what goes into an upset like this. If and when I hear from him, I'll talk about what he said, with his permission. Until then, all hail the migh-ty AU Eagles...

2. North Carolina rolled Nevada tonight, but it was the same old song for the Tar Heels. I've written about them extensively already this season and will have the opportunity to continue to do so, so I'm going to ignore them for now. But a seven-foot sophomore from the Wolfpack named JaVale McGee caught my eye, so I'd like to devote a few words to him.

The negative first, so no one thinks I am getting carried away. He doesn't have much of a back-to-the-basket game, so he's limited in what he can do offensively. However, he also doesn't have that gangly awkwardness that 19- and 20-year-olds at his height so often have, so it's reasonable to suggest he might develop one in time.

His stats -- 14 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 blocked shots -- tell a pretty good story, but there were a few things that don't show up in the box score that are worth noting.

For one, his lone assist came on a play where he caught the ball about 18 feet from the basket on the left wing. He beat UNC's Tyler Hansbrough into the lane, jumped, then dropped a nice little pass to a teammate for an easy bucket. How often have you seen a seven-footer do that?

Secondly, he's a very quick leaper. Thanks to NBA League Pass, I've discovered just how valuable this skill is. As alluded to, I'm a big Celtics fan, and in watching the first 26 games of this NBA season, I've seen Boston center Kendrick Perkins lose countless easy baskets because he can't get off the floor when he catches the ball. He has to gather himself (bringing the ball down), bend his knees (making himself several inches shorter), and then go up. This often turns a dunk into a blocked layup or a trip to the free throw line, where Perkins is barely a favorite to make one of two.

McGee didn't get a lot of post catches against Carolina so it's not a perfect comparison, but you could tell just how athletic he is from the way he sprung off the floor to contest shots and grab rebounds (it's no coincidence that Perkins' rebounding numbers are fairly underwhelming for a guy who goes 6'10", 280).

The best specific example of McGee's athleticism that I can give was a follow-up dunk McGee had in the first half. I can't really describe it here, but what I can say is that given the position in which the big guy caught the ball, I was very surprised that he was able to jam it home, nevermind as easily as he did. I was fully expecting him to land before stuffing it.

Finally, while he was 0-for-3 from three-point land, he looked very comfortable from that range, and his misses were close -- the second one went in and out. He's hit three from deep on the season, and the fact that he can take such a shot within the flow of the Nevada offense without drawing ire from his teammates and coaches shows that he's very capable of making that shot.

Keep this kid's name in the back of your mind. He's not NBA ready, of course, but he's a prospect to watch over the next few years.

3. It wasn't all good news for Carolina, however, as Bobby Frasor tore his ACL and is out for the season. You've gotta feel bad for the kid, suffering an injury like that making a hustle play on defense deep in the second half of a blowout.

Carolina won't miss Frasor as much as Syracuse will miss Eric Devendorf or North Carolina State will miss Farnold Degand (two other players who have gone down with season-ending knee injuries in the last week or so). But don't look at Frasor's three-points-per-game average and think this is no big deal.

The Heels still have one of the best lead guards in the country in sophomore Tywon Lawson. But Lawson has been able to average just 23 minutes per game this season, in part because of how well Frasor ran the team from off the bench.

Carolina's third-string point guard is Quentin Thomas. whose three-plus years in powder blue have been something of a disappointment. He's averaging 1.8 turnovers in 10 minutes per game this year, and on Saturday, he gave up the rock five times in 13 minutes against UC-Santa Barbara.

Carolina coach Roy Williams will no doubt start out by giving Frasor's minutes to Thomas, but if the senior continues to struggle, you can expect Lawson to see more floor time. This may become a problem in March, as Lawson -- as well-conditioned as he is -- takes a lot of contact and expends a lot of energy running Williams' high-octane offense. Tar Heel fans will have to hope that Thomas is up to the task, for fear that Lawson may wear down during the season's stretch run.

Kentucky, Houston, Antoine Agudio

2007-12-19T01:11:00.000-08:00

Been a couple of weeks between posts. I've been busy working and pretending to do law school applications, and it's been kind of a dead time for college hoops on TV, due to final exams. Some quick hit thoughts from games I've watched:

1. For Billy Gillispie's sake, I want to be able to say that Kentucky can turn it around. I know they're not at full-strength -- Derrick Jasper has been out all year, Jodie Meeks played his first game of the year tonight (a game that the team's lone post threat, freshman Patrick Patterson, missed with an ankle injury. But I'm not sure it's happening with this group.

Right now, they're starting two guys who aren't threats to score, in Mark Coury and Michael Porter. That puts tremendous pressure on their scorers, like Meeks, Joe Crawford, and Ramel Bradley. Meeks is just a sophomore so there's still hope for them, but as much as I like Bradley and as much potential as Crawford has shown, those two seniors are simply too erratic to count on the way the Wildcats are going to be forced to count on them.

They also completely collapsed when Houston put a run together towards the end of the first half, allowing the hosts to completely blow the game open in the second half. They currently lack the fighting spirit they need to turn their season around.

It looks to me like this year is going to be a wash, with some promise for next year in Meeks, Jasper, and Patterson.

2. If John Calipari's Memphis club is going to lose during the Conference USA regular season, it'll be on January 30, when they travel to Houston to play the Cougars at Hofheinz Pavilion. Saw Tom Penders' squad for the first time tonight as they moved to 10-1 with a 83-69 pasting of Kentucky. Great venue, great crowd, and Houston's up and down style is perfect for getting the max out of such a full court advantage.

I'm not sure Houston is good enough defensively to knock off the Tigers, but I do know that this game and the return date on February 13 will be two of the highest-scoring, most entertaining games of the C-USA season.

3, Antoine Agudio is a bigger, more-polished Salim Stoudamire. Not sure what that ultimately means for his pro prospects, but I've gotta think some NBA club is going to spend a second-rounder on this Hofstra senior. His duel with Charlotte's Leemire Goldwire in a 70-65 Pride win on Saturday was wonderful to watch. Agudio had 30 points on 10-of-15, including a perfect six-for-six from deep; Goldwire was far less efficient, scoring his 26 points on 22 shots, including an almost unheard of 8-for-20 from behind the arc. Agudio also had 10 boards and five assists.

Agudio has had an excellent career (he made his 300th career three-pointer on Saturday), but has been somewhat overshadowed by departed teammate Loren Stokes. Now that it's his show to run, he's making the most of it. He's quietly leading the nation in scoring at 27.4 per. Four of Hofstra's five losses have come by four or fewer points, and two of those in overtime. They've got a couple of high-profile games coming up before they get into CAA play: at Rhode Island on December 22, vs. Virginia Tech in New York in the first round of the Aeropostale Holiday Festival on the 28th, and either Marist or St. John's in the second round of that jamboree on the 29th. By the new year, I expect to hear Agudio's name a lot more than I am now.

North Carolina's Defense, Part Two

2007-12-07T01:21:00.000-08:00

1. About a week ago, I wrote this post about how I thought North Carolina's defense was overrated by KenPom and others who advocate pace-adjusted statistics. I also posted it in the North Carolina thread on the sports board of a poker message board I post on. It got some comments, and I finally got a chance to respond tonight. My new post is below. The quoted items indicate a response that my original post got...

Rather than respond to each post that responded to me, I’m going to put all responses in this one. That way, I can jump back and forth and post my responses in something resembling a logical argument.

This comment might be a good place to start:

“I wouldn’t care if their defensive results were a byproduct of them hypnotizing the other team it is still good defense, even if their success is largely due to athleticism.”

You should care. Let’s pretend for a minute that North Carolina’s only defensive skill is that they can hypnotize their opponent. What happens when they come up against a team who is immune to hypnosis?

My argument is that Carolina’s pace acts the same way as hypnosis to falsely inflate their defensive stats. It works against most teams, but there are teams that won’t be “hypnotized,” because they possess poised and experienced guards, because they prefer to play at that fast pace as well, or both.

There’s nothing wrong with relying heavily on pace to help you defensively. But unless you are technically sound defensively, you’re not going to be good enough on that end of the court to be truly elite.

What do I mean by being technically sound defensively? Like offensive basketball, defensive basketball has fundamentals. Rotating to the open man is one I mentioned in my first post. Carolina gave Ohio St. a ton of open looks. That the Buckeyes couldn’t knock them down – and the reason why – isn’t important in the final discussion, because UNC is eventually going to run into a team that will hit those shots. Unless you’re forcing difficult shots – rushed shots due to defensive pressure, shots with a hand in the shooters face – you shouldn’t be satisfied with your defensive performance. Anything else is being results-oriented. If Carolina played a great three-point shooting team like Butler and decided that the best way to defend the Bulldogs was to pack everyone into the key and let them shoot jumpers, you wouldn’t praise the Heels’ defense even if Butler missed all their shots. You’d say that they got lucky that their opponent had an uncharacteristically poor shooting day.

Ohio St. may have missed good looks because they felt harried by the pace of the game, but there are teams who won’t be.

Another defensive skill is hedging on ball screens. This is something that Duke’s Kyle Singler does extremely well. When his man sets a screen on the man guarding the ball, Singler comes around to the side of the screen and forces the ballhandler to dribble laterally while his teammate catches up. If he decides to switch onto the ballhandler, he recognizes his height advantage and speed disadvantage, and takes a step back, without squaring his shoulders to the ballhandler. Instead, he’s at a slight angle -- always close enough to bother a shot, far enough way that he won’t get dribbled by – funneling the dribbler into the teeth of the defense.

The Carolina bigs don’t do this well. Incidentally, neither did Shelden Williams when he was at Duke. No one seemed to take advantage of it, but you could get Williams in foul trouble simply by sending the man Williams was guarding to set a screen on the ball; Williams always jumped them too far. It seemed like every game he was always getting whistled for one blocking foul by being stupidly over-aggressive hedging a screen.

“Your anecdotal evidence regarding defensive rotation is a perfect example of exactly what this article means to disprove – you don’t have to play a slow, grinding game to defend well.”

First, I think you mean that the article means to prove that you don’t have to play a slow, grinding game to defend well. That said, rotating well defensively or hedging ball screens properly has nothing to do with playing at a certain pace. Rotating well is good defense, at any tempo; leaving men open for good shots is bad defense at any tempo.
You also asked me to support my argument with something other than “I don’t agree.” I hope you see that the kinds of examples I’ve given are and were my attempt to do that.

One poster said he agreed with my general point, but disagreed with my reasoning for specific losses. He said that Carolina “had trouble containing dribble penetration.” That sounds like a great example of bad defense to me.

Speaking of my hypothesis for why Carolina lost certain games, a few of you took exception to that:

“There is a pretty big selection bias, as you are picking games they lost and then explaining why that team showed UNC had a bad defense.”

That’s not what I was doing. I was offering my hypothesis for why Carolina lost to certain teams that were hardly elite – that they are a fundamentally average defensive team whose pace of play masks that technical deficiency.

tarheeljks noted that “4 of the games UNC lost last year (Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, and Maryland), were on the road, where KenPom concedes that the Heels were much weaker defensively.”

I can’t think of a good reason why a team would play significantly poorer defense on the road than they do at home. It’s not like baseball, where if you’re playing at Fenway or whatever they call Houston’s park now there are all these weird conditions you have to get used to. It’s the same court, the same ball. Sure, the home team may shoot a little bit better because the surroundings are familiar, but that only should really matter on open looks. If you’ve got a hand in a guy’s face or are forcing him to shoot a shot he doesn’t want to take, it’s just as hard to make it at home as it is on the road.

I think that the home/road discrepancy might come back to that pace thing. As we’ve already discussed, Carolina’s defense is effective if the opposition allows itself to be rattled by an unfamiliar, uptempo game. If you’re already feeling rushed, the crowd can play a big role in enhancing that feeling. On the road, when the crowd isn’t behind North Carolina to further bother the opponent, their defense suffers.

Finally, “I’m interested to hear what you think this stat is missing regarding defensive performance.”

My inability to eloquently answer this question has probably been the biggest reason I’ve now written more than 2,000 words on the topic of Carolina’s defense – if I could explain it well, I don’t know that I’d need all this other stuff.

Here’s my best attempt. KenPom’s stats are pace-adjusted, but what they don’t adjust for is the EFFECT that playing at a certain pace has. Points-per-possession stats treat every possession exactly the same: it has the value of 1. That’s why I wanted to see these stats for individual games; it’s my belief that Carolina’s defensive points-per-possession stats would be significantly worse in games against decent opponents whose preferred style is also uptempo.

I haven’t the slightest idea how to incorporate something like this into a statistic, or if it’s even possible. And like I’ve said all along, I think these stats are more useful than traditional ones. But they aren’t anywhere close to perfect, and I find it ironic that they are treated like gospel as much as they seem to be, considering that they were developed in part to refute people who say “North Carolina sucks at defense; look at all the points they give up!” It’s funny to me that KenPom numbers seem to be given a pass on skepticism.

Donte' Greene, Georgetown's guards, West Virginia

2007-12-06T02:15:00.000-08:00

1. I spent all of yesterday's post talking about freshmen, and I didn't even get to my favorite, my freshman of the year so far: Syracuse's Donte' Greene. His stats aren't as gaudy as Michael Beasley's -- about 19 points and nine rebounds per game before tonight's 20 and 10 performance at Virginia -- but he's got the same smooth interior game and the same comfort from three-point range. He's quicker and a better leaper than Beasley, and listed at 6' 11", he's at least an inch taller than his counterpart at Kansas State. I say "at least" because on the Jimmy V broadcast, ESPN's Dan Shulman indicated that Beasley is closer to 6'8" than his listed 6'10".

Of course, his teammates are better, and that helps his cause. Still, NBADraft.net has Greene listed as the third overall pick in their 2008 mock draft, well ahead of O.J. Mayo and Indiana's Eric Gordon (someone I'm looking forward to seeing more of so I can post about him here).

2. During the Georgetown-Alabama broadcast tonight, ESPN's Jimmy Dykes said that with last year's top pick, Greg Oden, no longer around, Roy Hibbert might be the toughest player to guard in this year's NCAA Tournament. He added a caveat: "If he gets the ball."

I'll echo Dykes here, at the risk of repeating myself, because it's been my contention since last year that Georgetown's guards don't look for the 7'2" Hibbert enough. (Prior to that, my contention was that Hibbert wasn't good enough to deserve looks on offense -- the big guy's come a long way during his college career).

Last year, they could get away with it, because they had Jeff Green, a wonderful college player and the 5th overall pick in last year's draft. Green's now starting in the frontcourt of the NBA's Seattle Supersonics, so the Hoyas' focus really needs to be on Hibbert.

It's concerning, then, that Hibbert got just four shots against Alabama. It wasn't because of foul trouble, something that's been an Achilles heel for him in the past -- it's just that Georgetown's guards weren't looking for him. During one sequence, Hoya guard Jesse Sapp launched a three-pointer after a couple of passes without Hibbert getting a touch on the possession. After no doubt being hollered at from the sideline for taking a quick shot, Sapp caught the ball on the next Hoya offensive trip and missed another three-pointer, again before Hibbert had touched the ball.

Further compounding matters is that when 'bama was playing man-to-man, Richard Hendrix, a 22 point-per-game scorer and the Tide's best offensive player, was guarding Hibbert -- and giving up six inches and 20 pounds in doing so. Yet the guards wasted the opportunity to tire opposition's star out or get him in foul trouble.

What's most maddening about this is that Georgetown's guards are nothing special. They're decidedly average for a top-division team in a power conference. Most, perhaps all (I don't know enough about Pitt yet) teams in the top ten -- Georgetown is fourth in the coaches' poll and 5th in the writers' poll -- have a significantly better backcourt than the Hoyas, but none of them have anything approaching Hibbert in the post.

Ohio State had this problem at times last year with Oden, but at least the Buckeyes' had good guards (who had grown used to playing without the big freshman, since he sat out the non-conference schedule with a wrist injury).

Georgetown's guards refusal to pass the ball to Hibbert (and Green) last year nearly cost them their Sweet 16 matchup with Vanderbilt -- only Green's controversial bucket at the buzzer allowed them to be in the position to stun North Carolina with a stirring comeback to reach the Final Four. If coach John Thompson III can't get through to them that Hibbert needs to touch the ball on basically every possession, then the Hoyas won't even make it that far.

And I want it on record that from the beginning, I've thought this year's Georgetown team is overrated. Green's presence last year hid their deficiencies in the backcourt, which will be exposed this season.

3. Michigan coach John Beilein's unique offensive attack requires a certain type of player: one who is cerebral, a skilled and willing passer, and who has a good three-point shot. That requirement makes his job this year particularly tough, as he tries to coach a team full of guys recruited by former Wolverine boss Tommy Amaker.

I think his job is easier, however, than Bob Huggins' at West Virginia, the school Beilein left to take the Michigan job. It's always tough for someone disconnected from the previous coach to take over a program, but Beilein's "type" of player make it particularly difficult to take over from him unless you're going to run the same system. (Not to mention that Huggins is a just a touch more in-your-face with his players than Beilein). Huggins' options this year are to learn and coach an offense that fits his personnel but that he's unfamiliar with (and may or may not be philosophically opposed to); coach "his" style of ball with kids unsuited to play it; or adapt a hybrid of both styles.

He's chosen to adapt, and it looked good, at least, Wednesday night against an Auburn squad that had me impressed in a win over George Washington this weekend (though in retrospect, their performance on Sunday might have been inflated by a poor GW team). The West Virgina kids surely help some -- they already know the offense, are more athletic, and have more ability to create off the dribble than past Beilein teams -- but give credit to Huggins for having his alma mater playing well this early in his first season.

What will be interesting to see is what happens next year, when Huggins' first recruiting class at the school mix with the leftovers from the Beilein era. Huggins' typical recruit is more athletic and less fundamentally sound than the kids that Beilein brought to Morgantown. And without getting too nasty about it and knowing nothing specific about Huggins' highly regarded 2008 recruiting class, let me just say that I don't remember any of Beilein's recruits having the kind of attitude and background concerns that seemed to follow so many of Huggins' kids at Cincinnati.

As challenging as this year is for the coach, meshing that group next year may be an even tougher task.