Tuesday, November 07, 2006

AP Top 25: Pitt, LSU, UCLA

Continuing my thoughts on the preseason AP Top 25...

4. Pittsburgh Panthers coach Jamie Dixon's first order of business this year should be to decide what kind of basketball team he has. Pittsburgh seems like a team with a little bit of an identity crisis.

The Panthers made their latest arrival on the national scene thanks to deliberate, half-court basketball, highlighted by stifling defense. Those teams were coached by Ben Howland, now the head man at UCLA, and when Dixon -- a Howland assistant -- took over at the start of the 2003-2004 season, he had the players in place to continue with that style of play.

Since then, however, the turnover of personnel inherent in college basketball has rendered Pitt less and less suited to that brand of basketball. Last year, they surrendered 68 points per game, a stat that would horrify Howland. Offensively, however, they didn't appear comfortable playing games in that scoring range, and they must replace point guard Carl Krauser, who forced the action too much but was the team's most offensive-minded player.

In other words, offensively, the Panthers seem similar to recent editions, but they are less solid defensively than those teams were. Marked increases in offensive output from Ronald Ramon and Sam Young will ultimately determine if Pitt deserves this high ranking.

5. LSU When all is said and done, there might not be a team who misses a single player more this year than the Tigers will miss Tyrus Thomas. It extends well beyond his offensive numbers (12.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg) ,which, while impressive, are replaceable. As well as he was playing at the end of last season, with his versatility and explosiveness, the opposition always had to keep an eye on him on both ends of the court.

LSU's guards are serviceable, but don't shoot well enough to spread the floor, which means coach John Brady will rely heavily on junior center Glen "Big Baby" Davis. With per-game averages of 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds in his sophomore season, Davis appears up to the task, but note that the 6'9", 300-pounder has played each of his two seasons in college alongside a standout post player: Thomas (the fourth overall pick in the 2006 NBA Draft) last year; and Brandon Bass the year before.

No such running mate exists on LSU's roster this season, and it'll be up to Davis to prove that he can continue to produce now that he'll be the lone focus of the opposition's defense.

6. UCLA From one player who will be missed to one who won't be, or at least not as much as many seem to think: UCLA's Jordan Farmar. Selected late in the first round of last year's draft, Farmar takes 13 points and five rebounds away from last year's national runners-up, as well as two years worth of experience running the offense, handling the ball, and taking big shots.

His production will be easy enough to replace, with Josh Shipp's return to health and the continued development of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. It's the other stuff, the intangibles, that has Bruins fans worried.

It's an understandable sentiment, and I don't want to diminish Farmar's importance to last year's squad, but I think this edition of UCLA will be just fine without him. Sophomore Darren Collison saw enough of the floor as a freshman to comfortably handle point guard duties in his sophomore campaign. He showed a scoring ability and a fearlessness that suggests he has no problem taking the big shot if need be. He probably won't, however, as long as Arron Afflalo is around. Also the team's best defender, Afflalo is a standout offensively who can spot up or create his own shot, the same way Farmar could.

Truth be told, I like this bunch better than the three teams currently ranked directly ahead of them. A return trip to the Final Four is well within reach.

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