Tourney Time

I had a huge post all typed up about this year's tourney, but Blogger lost it. It's too late to retype all of it, but here's my bracket and a quick rundown of my thoughts on some of the Thursday games:

--Butler vs. Old Dominion, the 5/12 in the West, is an intriguing matchup and one of the toughest for me to pick. Butler is overseeded; there's no way a team that couldn't win the Horizon league title outright or the conference tournament is a 5. On the other hand, ODU looked awful in the Colonial Tournament, much worse than even what you'd expect looking at their results (a win over Towson in the quarters followed by a 16-point loss to George Mason in the semis). Ultimately, I chose Butler because you can make a pretty decent argument that ODU doesn't even belong in this tournament.

--Several weeks ago, I told a buddy that I thought Duke would lose in the first round of this year's tournament, and that Virginia Commonwealth would make the Sweet 16. That they are meeting in the 6/11 game in the West is something of a "perfect storm" for me.

I stand by my prediction for two reasons:

1)VCU has three good guards in B.A. Walker, Eric Maynor, and Jesse Pellot-Rosa. Greg Paulus can't guard any of them, but he'll have to match up with one of them, and whichever that is will have a field day;

2)While VCU's halfcourt defense is nothing special, they have a decent press that they can use for the whole game, and this hurts Duke in two ways. First of all, the Devils -- Paulus in particular -- have struggled with pressure defense this year. Secondly, their chronically thin bench has left them tired at the end of recent games, and while they will be well-rested with a week off since their last outing, they'll be less than fresh by the end of the game.

That all said, Josh McRoberts can almost singlehandedly win this game for Duke if he shows up, stays out of foul trouble, and plays close to the full 40 minutes. VCU has no answer for him inside, and his passing ability and court vision should allow him to find open shooters against the lax VCU halfcourt D. His ballhandling ability will also help neutralize the Rams' fullcourt pressure.

Both of these teams have a great shot at being Pitt in the second round. The Panthers are a team without an identity.

--Teams that grind it out like Washington State are vulnerable to confident teams with star players, and Oral Roberts and Caleb Green fit the bill. I see a Harold "The Show" Arceneaux (remember Weber State over Carolina in '99) type performance in the offing for Green.

And in the next round, ORU would face either Vanderbilt or George Washington, two of the least imposing "name" schools in this field.

And a few quick notes about my predictions in the later rounds:

--I feel very good about having Texas A&M moving to the championship game in Atlanta as the three seed in the South. For one, they get to play the regional semis and finals in their home state, a huge boost against a likely opponent like the young Ohio State Buckeyes. Joseph Jones and Antanas Kavilauskas will be able to limit the impact of OSU's young, talented frontcourt duo of Greg Oden and Othella Hunter. And while Acie Law IV vs. Mike Conley Jr. is the kind of point guard matchup the media goes crazy for, the advantage has to lie with the Aggie senior over the Buckeye frosh.

Once (if?) they get to the Final Four, A&M is likely to match up with either North Carolina or Georgetown. Despite those two possible foes playing completely different styles, the Aggies match up well with both. Jones and Kavaliauskas should be able to handle UNC's Tyler Hansbrough or Georgetown's Roy Hibbert, and neither team has anyone to guard Law IV. Florida's balance and experience will be too much to overcome in the final, however.

-I'm not ready to pick it because it could seriously damage my bracket, but it wouldn't completely shock me to see BC beat Georgetown in the second round. I'll have more on why if this matchup comes to fruition.

-Call me starry-eyed, but I'm expecting one transcendant performance from Texas superfrosh Kevin Durant in this tournament, and I'm predicting it'll come against UNC in the East regional semis. I don't think Texas is experienced or consistent enough to make it all the way to Atlanta, but I do think Durant will have one game we'll be talking about for ages, and Carolina -- which has never been accused of playing too hard on defense -- is the perfect opponent against whom to have it.

That's good news for the Hoyas, because I don't think they can beat the Heels. Hansbrough will eat Hibbert alive if those two meet, and if Jeff Green has to concentrate too much on defending Brandan Wright, it'll hurt his offense -- and the Hoyas are nothing if Green isn't involved offensively. Durant would pose the same type of matchup problem, but like I said, I'm banking on Texas being too young to beat two teams like that in a single weekend.

That's all for now. Enjoy the games. I'll try to get at least two posts up tomorrow; one reviewing the day's games and one previewing Fridays. Ideally, I'll have a review entry after the afternoon session as well as one after the evening, PLUS the preview post, but we'll see.