NBA Draft early entries
First and foremost, Beat LA!
Monday at 5 p.m. was the deadline for underclassmen who hadn't yet signed with an agent to drop out of the NBA draft and return to school.
North Carolina was the obvious big winner. Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green all opted to come back to Chapel Hill, where they'll join consensus national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough, who didn't even submit his name for consideration in the draft. Roy Williams' boys are the team to beat next year.
Note that my position is that leaving for the NBA Draft when you're a projected lottery pick is a no-brainer. It's just too much money to pass up. As a college basketball fanatic who is lukewarm on the professional league, I naturally want everyone to stay in school. But it doesn't make sense to pass up guaranteed millions. That doesn't mean that I think all lottery picks couldn't use extra seasoning in college or are can't-miss pros -- I don't, and I'd be ignoring history to say otherwise.
Therefore, I'm not going to talk about the no-brainers. Go to nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com and any underclassmen in the top 13 or so made the right decision. I'll talk about their pro prospects as we get closer to the draft, after the draft, and after the Vegas Summer League (19'9" will be making it's first-ever appearance in Sin City this July!).
For now, though, let's take a look at some of the less clear-cut cases. As always, I'm ignoring the foreign guys because I've never seen them play and I'd just be parroting what people who have seen them play say.
-Every year, there are guys who enter the draft simply because their stock will never be higher -- not because of a stellar performance in the previous season, but because their potential gets closer and closer to being unrealized every year they get older. The recent epitome of this category of player is, in my mind, Duke's Josh McRoberts, a projected lottery pick after his freshman year who fell all the way to the middle of the second round in last year's draft, where he was taken 37th overall by the Portland Trailblazers (he was a projected late first-rounder when he first declared, then fell significantly as pre-draft workouts went on).
This year, I think the group is headlined by Florida center Marreese Speights, who was supposed to break out during his sophomore season and performed inconsistently, at best, on a young team. Kansas' Mario Chalmers is another guy whose stock is at an all-time high (thanks to his MOP performance at this year's Final Four), although he doesn't fit in with guys like McRoberts and Speights because his reputation is based on performance, not potential. I haven't followed his career too much (hard to follow the Pac-10 out here in the East), but Cal's Ryan Anderson might fit here, too.
-An interesting corollary to this is the player who I feel enters the draft due to injury concerns. A recent example: Cal's Leon Powe. Powe was a double-double guy as a sophomore after leading the Pac-10 in rebounding as a freshman, but as a 6'7", 245-pound power forward, he's not the kind of player NBA teams are chomping at the bit to spend a first-rounder on. With two terrible knees, though, the logical explanation is that Powe's decision to enter the 2006 draft -- where he was selected 49th overall by the Denver Nuggets and subsequently traded to the Boston Celtics-- was based largely on not knowing how long his body would allow him to play. Particularly with his much-publicized family troubles, Powe needed to cash in while he still could.
(As an aside, I loved the trade for my Celtics when it was made, and I'm thrilled to see him produce the way he has this season, regardless of the fact that Doc Rivers seems intent on ruining his career by inexplicably refusing to give him a steady spot in the rotation in the playoffs).
Bill Walker could be this year's Leon Powe. The Kansas State freshman has already torn his ACL twice in his young life, and he suffered a partial tear of the meniscus in his knee during a workout this past weekend. The disgustingly-athletic Walker has not yet been slowed by these injuries, but repeated setbacks are enough to scare a young man into looking for a guaranteed paycheck, although ESPN's Chad Ford insists that Walker doesn't have a first-round promise (you may need to be an ESPN Insider to read that story. If you aren't, don't bother signing up).
Kansas' Brandon Rush might also fit into that category. He declared last summer, after his sophomore year, and was a projected first-rounder before he suffered an ACL tear in a pre-draft workout. After returning to school and helping the Jayhawks win a national championship, Rush isn't going to take a chance again (draftexpress has him going 17th to the Raptors; nbadraft.net has him at 22 to the Magic; and the fourth -- and latest -- version of Ford's mock has him at 15 to the Suns)
-There are a lot of guys who had an easy choice to come back to school and made the right decision. I won't list them here, but that first ESPN link has a lot about it, and you should be able to pick out their names pretty easily.
-A few guys made the correct, but difficult, decision to come back to school:
Chase Budinger, Arizona -- In another year, this smooth all-around forward is a lottery pick
Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, North Carolina -- These guys are going to benefit from playing together for another year. Lawson needs to prove he can stay in control, cut down on his turnovers, and be a consistent outside threat; NBA teams will be looking for Ellington -- whose offensive repertoire has been compared to Kobe Bryant's -- to stop disappearing for long stretches of games.
-And then there are just a lot of guys who I think made bad decisions, particularly in a year where the draft is so deep. Some of these guys are projected first-rounders who will get guaranteed money, and you might wonder how I reconcile this with my opinion that anyone who is a lock to go in the lottery should do so. Generally speaking, it's hard to know who has a first-round promise and there always seems to be someone who falls out. I think if you can be a lottery pick the following year, you're better off waiting and getting another year of experience -- particularly big men who have a lot of room to develop. It's good for your wallet, and good for your game.
Donte' Green, Syracuse -- Green finally started to show a post game toward the end of the year; a full season of that and weaker peers and he's a sure-fire lottery pick (one of the mock sites had him as high as No. 3 during the season before he displayed a fairly one-dimensional perimeter-oriented game);
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA -- Cashing in too late on what looked to be, two years ago, a promising career;
DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, and JaVale McGee, Nevada -- I like both of these seven-footers (well, Jordan's 6'11"), but height will always be in demand, fellas. I posted about McGee early last season (second item in that post) and Jordan's got a shot at being late-lottery, but they've got plenty of improving to do and would be better off in a weaker draft;
Darrell Arthur, Kansas, Richard Hendrix, Alabama, and JJ Hickson, North Carolina State -- Does anyone really see these post players contributing significantly to an NBA team any time soon?
Davon Jefferson, USC -- Sick athlete, but unpolished. Might slip into the first-round due to his potential, but if he stays in school another year, he doesn't have to worry.
Monday at 5 p.m. was the deadline for underclassmen who hadn't yet signed with an agent to drop out of the NBA draft and return to school.
North Carolina was the obvious big winner. Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green all opted to come back to Chapel Hill, where they'll join consensus national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough, who didn't even submit his name for consideration in the draft. Roy Williams' boys are the team to beat next year.
Note that my position is that leaving for the NBA Draft when you're a projected lottery pick is a no-brainer. It's just too much money to pass up. As a college basketball fanatic who is lukewarm on the professional league, I naturally want everyone to stay in school. But it doesn't make sense to pass up guaranteed millions. That doesn't mean that I think all lottery picks couldn't use extra seasoning in college or are can't-miss pros -- I don't, and I'd be ignoring history to say otherwise.
Therefore, I'm not going to talk about the no-brainers. Go to nbadraft.net or draftexpress.com and any underclassmen in the top 13 or so made the right decision. I'll talk about their pro prospects as we get closer to the draft, after the draft, and after the Vegas Summer League (19'9" will be making it's first-ever appearance in Sin City this July!).
For now, though, let's take a look at some of the less clear-cut cases. As always, I'm ignoring the foreign guys because I've never seen them play and I'd just be parroting what people who have seen them play say.
-Every year, there are guys who enter the draft simply because their stock will never be higher -- not because of a stellar performance in the previous season, but because their potential gets closer and closer to being unrealized every year they get older. The recent epitome of this category of player is, in my mind, Duke's Josh McRoberts, a projected lottery pick after his freshman year who fell all the way to the middle of the second round in last year's draft, where he was taken 37th overall by the Portland Trailblazers (he was a projected late first-rounder when he first declared, then fell significantly as pre-draft workouts went on).
This year, I think the group is headlined by Florida center Marreese Speights, who was supposed to break out during his sophomore season and performed inconsistently, at best, on a young team. Kansas' Mario Chalmers is another guy whose stock is at an all-time high (thanks to his MOP performance at this year's Final Four), although he doesn't fit in with guys like McRoberts and Speights because his reputation is based on performance, not potential. I haven't followed his career too much (hard to follow the Pac-10 out here in the East), but Cal's Ryan Anderson might fit here, too.
-An interesting corollary to this is the player who I feel enters the draft due to injury concerns. A recent example: Cal's Leon Powe. Powe was a double-double guy as a sophomore after leading the Pac-10 in rebounding as a freshman, but as a 6'7", 245-pound power forward, he's not the kind of player NBA teams are chomping at the bit to spend a first-rounder on. With two terrible knees, though, the logical explanation is that Powe's decision to enter the 2006 draft -- where he was selected 49th overall by the Denver Nuggets and subsequently traded to the Boston Celtics-- was based largely on not knowing how long his body would allow him to play. Particularly with his much-publicized family troubles, Powe needed to cash in while he still could.
(As an aside, I loved the trade for my Celtics when it was made, and I'm thrilled to see him produce the way he has this season, regardless of the fact that Doc Rivers seems intent on ruining his career by inexplicably refusing to give him a steady spot in the rotation in the playoffs).
Bill Walker could be this year's Leon Powe. The Kansas State freshman has already torn his ACL twice in his young life, and he suffered a partial tear of the meniscus in his knee during a workout this past weekend. The disgustingly-athletic Walker has not yet been slowed by these injuries, but repeated setbacks are enough to scare a young man into looking for a guaranteed paycheck, although ESPN's Chad Ford insists that Walker doesn't have a first-round promise (you may need to be an ESPN Insider to read that story. If you aren't, don't bother signing up).
Kansas' Brandon Rush might also fit into that category. He declared last summer, after his sophomore year, and was a projected first-rounder before he suffered an ACL tear in a pre-draft workout. After returning to school and helping the Jayhawks win a national championship, Rush isn't going to take a chance again (draftexpress has him going 17th to the Raptors; nbadraft.net has him at 22 to the Magic; and the fourth -- and latest -- version of Ford's mock has him at 15 to the Suns)
-There are a lot of guys who had an easy choice to come back to school and made the right decision. I won't list them here, but that first ESPN link has a lot about it, and you should be able to pick out their names pretty easily.
-A few guys made the correct, but difficult, decision to come back to school:
Chase Budinger, Arizona -- In another year, this smooth all-around forward is a lottery pick
Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, North Carolina -- These guys are going to benefit from playing together for another year. Lawson needs to prove he can stay in control, cut down on his turnovers, and be a consistent outside threat; NBA teams will be looking for Ellington -- whose offensive repertoire has been compared to Kobe Bryant's -- to stop disappearing for long stretches of games.
-And then there are just a lot of guys who I think made bad decisions, particularly in a year where the draft is so deep. Some of these guys are projected first-rounders who will get guaranteed money, and you might wonder how I reconcile this with my opinion that anyone who is a lock to go in the lottery should do so. Generally speaking, it's hard to know who has a first-round promise and there always seems to be someone who falls out. I think if you can be a lottery pick the following year, you're better off waiting and getting another year of experience -- particularly big men who have a lot of room to develop. It's good for your wallet, and good for your game.
Donte' Green, Syracuse -- Green finally started to show a post game toward the end of the year; a full season of that and weaker peers and he's a sure-fire lottery pick (one of the mock sites had him as high as No. 3 during the season before he displayed a fairly one-dimensional perimeter-oriented game);
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA -- Cashing in too late on what looked to be, two years ago, a promising career;
DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, and JaVale McGee, Nevada -- I like both of these seven-footers (well, Jordan's 6'11"), but height will always be in demand, fellas. I posted about McGee early last season (second item in that post) and Jordan's got a shot at being late-lottery, but they've got plenty of improving to do and would be better off in a weaker draft;
Darrell Arthur, Kansas, Richard Hendrix, Alabama, and JJ Hickson, North Carolina State -- Does anyone really see these post players contributing significantly to an NBA team any time soon?
Davon Jefferson, USC -- Sick athlete, but unpolished. Might slip into the first-round due to his potential, but if he stays in school another year, he doesn't have to worry.
posted by H.S. Slam, Ph.D at 9:25 PM
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