Big East Day One
One day into the new, allegedly improved Big East tournament, and the expanded format is already hurting the conference.
Not because of Georgetown's somewhat surprising 64-59 loss to host St. John's; the Hoyas needed a deep run to make the NCAA tournament. (Alas, how far they have fallen since they beat Connecticut in Storrs to open conference play.) But Cincinnati's stunning 67-57 defeat at the hands of DePaul -- 0-18-in-the-Big-East-Depaul, hadn't-won-a-game-since-December-28-DePaul -- could very well cost the league at least one bid.
I think seven teams -- Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia -- could count on having locked up bids by virtue of their performance in the regular season. Two others -- Cincy and Providence -- had work to do. Both probably could not get in, as they were on course to play each other in Wednesday's second-round. But that matchup could have very well served as a play-in game for the field of 65.
The Bearcats almost certainly blew their chances by losing to the Blue Demons on Tuesday, and the Friars' prospects took a blow, too. Providence now cannot count on one Big East tournament win earning them a bid, since that win, if they get it, will come against lowly DePaul. They might very well have to beat Louisville, the regular season champs, in Thursday's quarterfinals, a tall order.
That's under the new five-day, 16-team system, which gives the top four teams a double bye into the quarterfinals. Under the old system, which also gave the top four teams byes into the quarters but left the bottom four teams out of the competition entirely, several of the Big East bubble teams would have had a better opportunity to make their case to the selection committee:
-Cincy would have matched up with West Virginia in the first round. A win over the Mountaineers might have been enough to push the Bearcats through.
-Providence would have faced Notre Dame, another team that has a shot at a berth. It's hard to describe this one as a play-in game since Notre Dame would not have locked up a bid with a win, but a PC victory would likely have guaranteed them entrance into the field of 65.
In a best-case scenario for the conference under the old system, then, Cincinnati would have beaten WVU and Notre Dame would have beaten Providence, and all three would have gotten in, securing an unprecedent ten bids for the league. (Sure, this assumes an awful lot -- specifically, that a 9-11 conference record would have been enough for Cincy and Notre Dame -- but if Arkansas can get in with a 7-9 regular season record over a ten-win Syracuse team a few years, back, I see no reason why a Big East team this year can't make the Dance with a conference record below .500.)
Now, the best-case scenario is eight teams, with Providence needing to sweat it out even if they beat DePaul on Wednesday.
Not because of Georgetown's somewhat surprising 64-59 loss to host St. John's; the Hoyas needed a deep run to make the NCAA tournament. (Alas, how far they have fallen since they beat Connecticut in Storrs to open conference play.) But Cincinnati's stunning 67-57 defeat at the hands of DePaul -- 0-18-in-the-Big-East-Depaul, hadn't-won-a-game-since-December-28-DePaul -- could very well cost the league at least one bid.
I think seven teams -- Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia -- could count on having locked up bids by virtue of their performance in the regular season. Two others -- Cincy and Providence -- had work to do. Both probably could not get in, as they were on course to play each other in Wednesday's second-round. But that matchup could have very well served as a play-in game for the field of 65.
The Bearcats almost certainly blew their chances by losing to the Blue Demons on Tuesday, and the Friars' prospects took a blow, too. Providence now cannot count on one Big East tournament win earning them a bid, since that win, if they get it, will come against lowly DePaul. They might very well have to beat Louisville, the regular season champs, in Thursday's quarterfinals, a tall order.
That's under the new five-day, 16-team system, which gives the top four teams a double bye into the quarterfinals. Under the old system, which also gave the top four teams byes into the quarters but left the bottom four teams out of the competition entirely, several of the Big East bubble teams would have had a better opportunity to make their case to the selection committee:
-Cincy would have matched up with West Virginia in the first round. A win over the Mountaineers might have been enough to push the Bearcats through.
-Providence would have faced Notre Dame, another team that has a shot at a berth. It's hard to describe this one as a play-in game since Notre Dame would not have locked up a bid with a win, but a PC victory would likely have guaranteed them entrance into the field of 65.
In a best-case scenario for the conference under the old system, then, Cincinnati would have beaten WVU and Notre Dame would have beaten Providence, and all three would have gotten in, securing an unprecedent ten bids for the league. (Sure, this assumes an awful lot -- specifically, that a 9-11 conference record would have been enough for Cincy and Notre Dame -- but if Arkansas can get in with a 7-9 regular season record over a ten-win Syracuse team a few years, back, I see no reason why a Big East team this year can't make the Dance with a conference record below .500.)
Now, the best-case scenario is eight teams, with Providence needing to sweat it out even if they beat DePaul on Wednesday.
Labels: Big East, Cincinnati, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
posted by H.S. Slam, Ph.D at 4:19 AM
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