Draft preview

Man, I am excited for this draft! Before I get to some thoughts on individual players, a (not-so) quick note on this draft overall, which stemmed from a conversation I had with my boy Joel.

It's being touted as the deepest draft in years, and it is, in fact, the deepest draft in years. And yet despite the presence of so many stars, there's a lot of trepidation in the front offices and fan bases of many of the high-lottery teams (excluding, of course, Portland and Seattle, who pick first and second overall, respectively). Why?

The presence of so many options magnifies the flaws in each individual. There will be busts in every draft, but most years, they were reasonably unavoidable, and you can't fault the GM for making his choice. This year, however, if you end up with a bust, you've not only wasted the opportunity that comes with an early draft pick, but you've also fallen behind much of the league, whose draft picks have worked out.

This phenomenon has some interesting consequences. Take Joakim Noah, for example. He's being touted as a top ten pick. His ceiling, however, is relatively low. Sure, he's big and can run and jump, defend decently, rebound decently, and will give you high energy. But he's never going to develop an offensive game outside six feet or so. Why, then, are many teams so eager to draft a guy who may best be compared to Anderson Varejao? Particularly in a draft this deep, it just doesn't seem to add up.

However, Noah's big selling point is that his floor is relatively high. He'll never be a total bust. He won't be expected to score a bunch, so when he goes his whole career averaging under double figures, it'll be no surprise. In a draft this full of potential studs, NBA teams feel they need to come away with something.

When Kevin Durant bench pressed a pedestrian 185 pounds, there was actually talk of him falling out of the top two. Durant is a singular offensive talent -- no one at his size has ever had the kind of offensive game he has. If he somehow fails to average 25-30 points during his peak, it will be a huge upset -- but it will have nothing to do with his strength. And yet there was actually talk of passing on him for the likes of Al Horford.

Similarly, Greg Oden has had his desire and killer instinct questioned, and people wonder if Portland should take Durant first. This is a guy who, had he been eligible, would have been the number-one overall pick in each of the last two drafts as a high school junior and senior -- and there's actually talk of taking Durant over him! When there are so many attractive options, it becomes harder and harder to be sure of your guy.

It's therefore a bad year to be a guy like China's Yi Jianlian, a relatively unknown quantity. His "tremendous upside potential" will likely make him a lottery pick, but he may drop beyond guys like Noah because people are more afraid to make a mistake in this star-laden draft. Of course, that could mean good things for the team that ultimately ends up taking him -- he could be the steal of the draft.

Ok, on to some scouting reports. I'm not going to do a mock draft, and I'm not going to rank players beyond grouping them into certain categories. Let's start with the two players who will undoubtedly kick things off Thursday night at Madison Square Garde

THE SURE THINGS

Greg Oden, C, Ohio St. In a mock draft on ESPN.com, Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) selects Durant first and chides fellow Worldwide Leader columnist Chad Ford for wanting Oden with the top pick instead. Until Oden's dominating performance in the national championship game against Florida, Simmons might have been able to convince me that it was reasonable to pass on him. All that changed, however, after he made brutal sport of fellow projected lottery picks Al Horford and Joakim Noah while single-handedly keeping his team in the game -- he played more minutes than he had all year against far and away the best front line in the nation, with almost no perimeter help with his teammates, and he was dominant. I don't know what the people who criticize Oden's desire were doing during the NCAA championship, but it wasn't watching the game. He nearly willed his team to the title. By the end, he wasn't even bothering to waste energy by fighting for position on the defensive end; he was more than happy to step back and let Horford catch the ball deep in the paint, knowing he could alter or block the shot.

His offensive game has a ways to go -- my biggest complaint is that he doesn't move all that well to free himself up in the post -- but he can score with both hands and he's powerful enough to be an immediate force on the low block. He has good touch for a big man and can finish with both the left and the right. Defensively, he'll be a star. He may need to learn to use his lower body, rather than his hands, for position, but that should come relatively quickly.

Kevin Durant, SF, Texas As I've said, this guy is a stud offensively, and frankly, I'm not interested in talking about it with anyone who thinks otherwise. It's just not a debate. He's too tall for quicker players to guard him, and too quick for taller players to guard him. He can penetrate, he can post up, he can spot up behind the line, and he can shoot -- even from NBA range -- on the move.

There's a lot of concern about his defense, particularly because of his perceived lack of strength. Personally, I'm not too worried about it. For one, he is an excellent team defender; he understands the game well and will get his share of steals stepping into passing lanes. Secondly, his height and extraordinary length -- he's 6-10 with the wingspan of a man half a foot taller -- will allow him to guard quicker players; he can play off of them and still bother their shot. He may have a little trouble guarding stronger players in the post, but again, his length will help him enough that it won't be anywhere near the kind of matchup nightmare he'll give the opposition on the other end.

THE BEST OF THE REST

Brandan Wright, PF, North Carolina Before got healthy(ish) and before Durant turned the Big12 into a video game, Wright was the most impressive freshman I saw. He's a long, smooth 6-10 with a great jump hook and a knack for finding the ball inside. People are concerned with his work ethic, but I think that's something relatively easy to fix. It's easy for 17- and 18-year-old kids who have excelled at every level to coast a little bit, until they are met with a situation that requires more dedication. It may take a year or two for him to realize that and to bulk up a bit -- and for that reason, I can understand grabbing someone like Horford instead -- but anyone else passing on Wright will ultimately be sorry that they did.

Al Horford, C, Florida His offensive game is more mature than Oden's or Wright's, and he's got good touch for a man his size. He's also a warrior on the boards and a good defender. That he got spooked so noticeably against Oden in that national championship -- by the second half, he was going up very tentatively, fading away and putting extra arc on his shot even when he didn't need to -- is a little concerning, but Horford is definitely the post player in this draft who will be able to immediately contribute the most offensively.

Mike Conley Jr., PG, Ohio State There are question marks with this kid -- his jumper and the fact that he's played every step of the way with Oden -- but I think he's a tremendous prospect. Beyond his quickness, which allows him to get in the lane almost at will, his decision-making is unimpeachable. He rarely turns it over and makes the right pass at the right moment almost every time. He's got the potential to drive and finish on a par with the Spurs' Tony Parker, and, like Parker, he doesn't need to get to the rim to score. Sure, it'd be nice if he had NBA three-point range, but his mid-range game isn't bad at all. Besides, you don't need to be able to shoot to be a great point guard in the NBA; Jason Kidd couldn't hit it from deep when he came out of Cal, and Parker's three-point shot is shaky.

Julian Wright, SF, Kansas A few months ago, before I start to really pay attention to what NBA teams are saying about college players, you could have told me that this Wright would be a top-five pick and I wouldn't have batted an eyelash. Now, he's projected to be late lottery or even later, and I'm really not sure why. His range is a bit limited, but he has everything else you could ask for in a small forward. He's athletic, versatile, an explosive finisher, a good defender, a very good rebounder, and a high-energy guy who has no quit in him and performs best in the biggest games. Also, outside of Conley, he's maybe the best passer in this draft -- a valuable skill that sets him apart from most NBA players at his position.

I wasn't that high on him after his freshman year and wasn't sure he'd be able to play 3 (he played 4 for much of his first season in Lawrence), but he proved me wrong; he's the player who I changed my mind most about over the course of last year. He could be the steal of this draft.

GUYS I'M WORRIED ABOUT

Joakim Noah, PF, Florida I said before that his floor was relatively high, and I meant it. But I also think that it's lower than what many think it will be. His athleticism and enthusiasm will only take him so far, particularly in the NBA, where passion and effort take a backseat to skill.

It's not that he won't be a solid rotation player with a decent NBA career, but he has a lot of faults, and he therefore will likely not be worth the pick that is spent on him. His shot mechanics are so messed up that it's unlikely he'll ever develop offensively beyond putbacks and little bunny shots. He'll get his share of rebounds, but I also think he benefitted from playing alongside Horford a lot more than Horford benefitted playing alongside him. The more-skilled Horford was the opposition's focus, helping Noah pad his stats by virtue of being relatively ignored.

Defensively, he wanders around a lot, helping where help isn't necessary. Not only will this leave him out of position versus more sophisticated offenses than what he saw in college, but it wastes energy. And for a guy who expends so much effort running up and down the court -- not to mention celebrating every dunk -- he doesn't have much energy to waste.

Corey Brewer, SF, Florida Brewer probably shouldn't be in this category. He's an excellent defender and can be explosive with the bounce in getting to the basket. But he's my pet peeve player of this draft, because no one seems to be saying anything about his shot.

He's an average shooter, at best, without NBA range. Everyone points to his outstanding performance from deep in the Final Four, but neglects his relatively pedestrian 33% mark from the short college line. Just because he had two outstanding games with the entire world watching doesn't make him a shooter, and anyone expecting that will be disappointed.

Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown It pains me to put him here, because he has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years. As good of a college player he is, however, I just don't see how his game translates to the pros. He's more athletic than I thought, and though he's a good passer, he doesn't put in on the deck all that well, nor is he that good of a shooter. He's also not the typical "undersized four" whose post skills will get him by despite being too small to be a traditional pivot -- his back-to-the-basket game is relatively underwhelming. His ceiling is higher than Noah's, but the fact that he's two or three inches shorter makes his floor lower, too.

Sean Williams, PF, Boston College I have no idea where this kid is going to get drafted, but I'm worried nonetheless. He can step in to any situation and immediately be a great shotblocker with terrific presence on the boards, but he just doesn't seem to get it. His character issues are not the kind that are broken easily by the right coach or the right situation. He just seems prone to making very poor life decisions, even when given second and third chances. Maybe I'm letting all the news about repeat offenders in the NFL color my opinion here, but I am very skeptical of Williams' ability or willingness to turn it around. Which is a shame. I hope I'm wrong.

SECOND ROUND STEALS

In each of the last two years, I've identified one player who I thought would be a steal in the second round, and, amazingly, I was right on both occasions: first with Ryan Gomes, then with Paul Millsap. This year, I've got two probable second-rounders that I think will have an immediate impact as rookies (dependent on which teams picks them, of course) on the way to long, productive NBA careers.

Demetris Nichols, SF, Syracuse If you had told me in October that I'd be writing Nichols' name in this section come June, I'd have laughed at you, but Nichols made huge strides this year. Nichols has one skill that makes me think he'll always have a spot in NBA rotations: his shooting. While he's a little streaky, with the exception of Durant, there isn't another player in this draft who gets as hot as he does. His jumper also has a quality to it that so many NBA players (Jordan, Kobe, LeBron) have: just the slightest natural fadeaway that allows him to get it off even when he's covered.

Jermareo Davidson, PF, Alabama NBAdraft.net doesn't even have him in their mock as of this writing, but I think he's a highly underrated prospect. He may be a little undersized, but his post moves are as polished as anyone's in this draft. He also has range out to about 17 feet. He was an All-America candidate heading into his final year, but lost both his brother and girlfried in separate events right around the beginning of the season. I think the effect those tragedies had on his performance is being under-estimated.

THE BEST OF THE REST (SECOND ROUND EDITION)

I think this has the potential to be the best second round ever.

Glen Davis, PF, LSU I don't quite get why this guy had fallen into the second round of most mocks (though he's shooting back into the first round in some of them). He's huge, with soft hands and great footwork. He can play outside (I think he did a bit too much of this last year) and at his size, will do just fine inside. I nearly put him in the previous section as a second-round can't miss guy.

Morris Almond, SG, Rice The guy is silky smooth with many elements of an NBA-ready offensive arsenal, including a step-back jumper and the body control to absorb contact and finish, even on his jumpers. He's overlooked because of where he played his college ball.

Stephane Lasme, PF, Massachusetts At just 6-8 and 225, he's a little small for someone who trades on his rebounding and shotblocking, but both are valuable skills that will always get a shot in the Association.

Herbert Hill, PF, Providence Like his Big East brother, Nichols, Hill is another late bloomer who broke out with a great senior year. He has good size (6-10, 240), good touch, and a nose for the ball on the glass. This latter skill gives him one of the most important attributes an otherwise middling big can have: the ability to get his points without needing plays run for him.

FOREIGNERS I don't keep up that much with the international game (hey, the site is called 19"9"!), so I can't say much about these guys. Really quickly, I like China's Yi Jianlian; I'm excited to see what Brazil's Tiago Splitter is all about, despite growing somewhat attached to his annual ritual of pulling out of the draft at the last minute; I've heard good things about Petteri Koponen, but forgive me if I'm going to wait to be impressed by a Finnish point guard; and I want to be the first to propose that we start calling Spain's Marc Gasol "The Spanish Flea."

I haven't covered everyone here, obviously, and I have opinions about a lot of other guys whose names are likely to be called (though not all of them -- I'm really not familiar enough with their games to make judgments on Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young of Georgia Tech, Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt from Southern Cal, Washington's Spencer Hawes, Florida State's Al Thornton, or Eastern Washington's Rodney Stuckey). But this post has gone on long enough. Thanks for stickin' with me. Depending on how it all goes down tomorrow night and how life works itself out, I may be back soon with some post-draft analysis.