NBA Draft, Part 1 - First Half of the Lottery

Over the next few days, I'm going to go pick-by-pick through the NBA Draft. I'll do one post on the first half of the lottery, one on the second half of the lottery, one on the rest of the first round, and one on the second round.

1. Chicago - Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis In my mind, the clear top pick in the draft. Rose should be an elite point guard in the NBA for a long time. He's not the passer Chris Paul is, but he's close, and his size and strength make him a better finisher. I love the way he squares his body in the air when he gets into the lane, and anyone who followed his brief college career heard television announcers rave about his ability to absorb contact and finish.

ESPN's draft coverage team brought up another good point; his unselfishness. Rose spent much of the year deferring to his older teammates, and it was only at the behest of coach John Calipari that he began dominating games regularly at the end of the season. He's unselfish and a willing, capable defender.

I think his ending up on a Chicago team that is a lot better than the 33-49 record it posted last year is reminiscent of when David Robinson was hurt for most of the 1996-97 season. The Spurs won the lottery, drafted Tim Duncan, and, well, you know how this story ends.

2. Miami - Michael Beasley, SF, Kansas State I am not nearly as high on Beasley as many others are. He's a tweener, but in kind of an odd sense. He's big and strong enough, and a skilled enough rebounder, that he could be a 16/8 kind of player pretty quickly if he committed himself to playing the post. He didn't do that at KSU, though, and I found myself thinking, even as he poured in points from the perimeter night after night for the Wildcats, that he wasn't quick enough to play the wing in the NBA.

It's unclear to me how Miami plans to use him.

I don't want to say he'll be a bust, because he likely won't be by any reasonable definition. But I don't think he's going to be the prolific scorer so many seem to think he'll be, and I ultimately think he'll be better off as an undersized post who faces up on occasion, rather than strictly a wing player.

3. Minnesota - O.J. Mayo, G, USC First off, ESPN reported in the wee hours Friday morning that the T-Wolves were sending Mayo's rights to Memphis as part of a package that will net No. 5 pick Kevin Love and sharpshooting wing Mike Miller, among others. No, I don't know what Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace is thinking. Another comically lopsided trade on the heels of the Pau Gasol deal.

I didn't much like Mayo when I first saw him at Southern Cal. He looked completely disinterested and uncreative offensively, content to stand around shooting three-pointers -- which he admittedly hit, at times, with outstanding range. He grew on me throughout the season, and I came to appreciate his business-like demeanor on the court -- unusual for collegians but so common for professionals -- as a symptom of his being tabbed as a future stars since his pre-high school years.

The character stuff is an issue, but the more I read and hear about his work ethic, the more I like him. He has all the offensive tools he needs -- great range, a mid-range pull-up game, the ability to get to the basket, a serviceable handle, good court vision.

A buddy of mine compared him to Ricky Davis the other night, and I quickly objected on two grounds: Mayo passes the ball and is a willing and very capable defender. I worry a lot less about potential attitude problems if the player contributes those kinds of skills to his team. I think he has a shot to be a superstar, but the situation for him is awful in Memphis, without a legit low-post threat or a deadly three-point shooter. He'll score plenty of points next year, but he won't be very efficient.

4. Seattle - Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA For me, Westbrook's meteoric rise up the rankings was the most mystifying storyline in the weeks leading up to the draft. Westbrook is a bigger, more athletic version of Kyle Lowry, and while I like Lowry, I don't like him enough to spend the No. 4 on him, particularly when the alternatives are a dynamic scoring lead guard like Jerryd Bayless or a cornerstone big man like Kevin Love or Brook Lopez.

Westbrook will play hard-nosed D and should be good for a handful of highlight reel dunks throughout the season. But he hasn't got much of a shot, doesn't seem very creative finishing if he's not ramming it home, and doesn't have enough experience at the point to effectively run an NBA team, particularly a young one like the Sonics.

5. Memphis - Kevin Love, PF, UCLA A good pick for the Grizzlies until they traded him in the lopsided Mayo deal. However, the situation in Minny is a lot better for Love than the one in Memphis. His shooting touch and a passing ability that is practically non-pareil among men his size make him a perfect match to Al Jefferson in a high-low offense. Big Al J's imposing presence will help Love's rebounding totals and should leave him open for a garbage bucket or two cleaning up the glass every game. It will also be interesting to see how the Wolves use his astounding outlet passing ability.

Defensively, he should be okay with most fours; but he's not nearly big enough to guard any fives, so that task will fall on Jefferson, who is more comfortable guarding power forwards.

Love's athleticism has been called into question, but he has slimmed down in the offseason. And to borrow a phrase I generally hate -- he's just a basketball player. He'll find a way to get it done. Al Horford-like numbers -- ~10 points and 10 rebounds per game -- are a real possibility in his rookie season.

6. New York - Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy Don't know much about this guy, save the highlights I've seen. I've heard that's he a 6'9" Manu Ginobili. That's obviously a good thing.

I will say that of the few clips I did see during draft coverage, Gallinari showed a much more "playground" game than you see out of most Euros. He can shoot it from deep, but he seems very comfortable and capable of breaking his guy down one-on-one and going to the bucket. He seems to seek out contact, too, which will help him get to the line in the offense-friendly NBA.

Finally, I'm often skeptical of the Europeans because they put up modest numbers with relatively little experience -- the philosphy across the pond regarding playing time for developing players seems a bit different there than it is stateside. Gallinari, however, averaged 17.5 points and 5.7 rebounds in 34 minutes in the Italian Serie A, and 15 points and 4.5 boards in a couple fewer minutes in the EuroLeague. He's a much more proven player than we're used to seeing from Europeans of his age, even if we haven't seen much of him over here.

7. Los Angeles Clippers - Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana Gordon's been a really tough guy for me to scout because of injury and the whole mess at Indiana this year. I keep hearing things about his size, but I never saw much evidence of him using it, and he did wear a t-shirt under his Hoosier jersey -- usually the surefire sign that someone isn't strong enough to play in the NBA.

Still, he did average 20 points per game last year even with all the negative stuff that happened with his season. I'm not sure about his mental toughness -- he shrunk from an admittedly overly hostile crowd at Illinois -- and I definitely questioned his shot selection at times. Ultimately, this could be one of the those situations that happens occasionally, where a perfectly fine player gets a lower ranking in my mind because he never seemed to have a good game while I was watching.

In a draft that is long on potential but short on can't miss prospects, the Clippers could have done a lot worse.