NBA Draft: Second half of the lottery
First half is here.
8. Milwaukee - Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia. Along with Russell Westbrook, Alexander's the other guy who I just can't figure out why he shot up draft boards. He's really athletic, although it's probably overstated some because of his skin color.
To his credit, I will say that his shot looked a lot better towards the end of the year; off the top of my head, I can't remember seeing someone whose shot improved like that. And it wasn't just variance or him getting hot; he clearly started putting a lot more arc on his jumper.
Still, I don't think he has a great jumper, and his mid-range stuff lacks a shooter's touch. And for all his athletic dunks, he doesn't finish all that well at the rim (similar to Westbrook) if he's not jamming. He likes to operate on his own, which is something I hate, and he seems overly willing to settle for that inconsistent turnaround. It is kind of a weird fit, too, given that the Bucks had just traded for Richard Jefferson.
9. Charlotte - D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas. I like Augustin more than most do and I won't criticize the Bobcats for taking another undersized point guard, since they seem intent on moving incumbent Raymond Felton. I do think that Augustin can be T.J. Ford -- one of his predecessors at the helm of the Longhorns -- with a jumper. But he's really small and not as quick as Ford, and he's going to have a lot of problems on the defensive end.
Still, he has the ability to score in the lane, although I do think he'll be affected more than most by the increased physicality in the pros. He's going to have to do a lot of finishing while getting bumped, and I'm not sure he's strong enough to do that. He's a very good passer, and I think as long as he understands his role as a setup man and doesn't try to prove himself as a scorer, he'll be a good floor leader at the next level.
10. New Jersey - Brook Lopez, C, Stanford. Young big men who aren't sure things fall into two groups: Bangers and soft skill players. The former group -- guys like the Hawks' Al Horford, the Bulls' Joakim Noah, and Lopez' brother, Robin, who went five picks later to Phoenix -- tend to put up better numbers right away, but they also flatten out more quickly.
Brook falls into the latter group. I'd like to think the rebounding and shotblocking his brother trades on is in him somewhere, but he has to show a willingness to do it. If he does, his ceiling is high, because he's very skilled for 7'1". He's got a good shooting touch, although a limited post arsenal, which he'll need to expand if he's going to be a double figure scorer in the NBA, now that he'll be up against more guys closer to his size. I expect teams to be physical with him, and how he responds will go a long way toward defining his career, particularly early on. He's great value at 10, for sure.
11. Indiana -- Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona. Indiana later moved this pick to Portland. Bayless is great value here. He excelled in a pro style system at Arizona, and I think he's the peer of Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo in terms of scoring. He doesn't have their size, though, which ranks him below these guys.
Still, he can take over games without taking bad shots, which will serve him well in the NBA -- the Blazers can trust him with the ball. He's not the playmaker Rose is, but unlike guys like Mayo and Westbrook, he'll be playing alongside a two -- Brandon Roy, to be specific -- who has proven he can run the team.
12. Sacramento - Jason Thompson, PF, Rider. I actually saw Rider a couple times earlier in the year, but I don't remember enough Thompson to make an evaluation here. The Kings obviously saw something they liked. Shrug.
13. Portland - Brandon Rush, G, Kansas. Rush went to Pacers in the Bayless deal. He actually reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy in that he can penetrate -- even coming off the knee problems that kept him out of last year's draft -- and shoot. For those comparisons to be apt, though, he'll have to prove he can distribute the way Roy does.
I'm confident that he can; he's the kind of guy who makes the right decision with the ball. The Pacers have T.J. Ford to run the point now, but they eventually should feel comfortable giving him the ball to run the offense. A very solid selection at this stage; he's the kind of player you can't really see being a bust.
14. Golden State - Anthony Randolph, F, Lousiana State. Odd pick given that the Warriors took Brandan Wright last year, a similarly athletic four who really produced nicely once he got some run towards the end of last year. He runs well but is pretty limited offensively; not DeAndre Jordan (the thin, lanky freshman center from Texas A&M who went 35th to the Clippers) limited, but I actually like a guy like JaVale McGee (the lanky sophomore center from Nevada who went 18th to the Wizards) more in the half court. Fortunately for Randolph, Golden State -- at least under head coach Don Nelson -- doesn't do a lot of playing in the half court.
Randolph's length -- 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan -- and athleticism made him an effective shotblocker in his one season at LSU; he blocked 2.3 shots per game last year. However, at just 197 pounds, he's going to get pushed around a lot more defensively in the NBA, and that's going to stop him from being an effective on-ball defender. He'll still get his fair share of blocks coming from the weak side, but he won't be the defensive force he was in college.
8. Milwaukee - Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia. Along with Russell Westbrook, Alexander's the other guy who I just can't figure out why he shot up draft boards. He's really athletic, although it's probably overstated some because of his skin color.
To his credit, I will say that his shot looked a lot better towards the end of the year; off the top of my head, I can't remember seeing someone whose shot improved like that. And it wasn't just variance or him getting hot; he clearly started putting a lot more arc on his jumper.
Still, I don't think he has a great jumper, and his mid-range stuff lacks a shooter's touch. And for all his athletic dunks, he doesn't finish all that well at the rim (similar to Westbrook) if he's not jamming. He likes to operate on his own, which is something I hate, and he seems overly willing to settle for that inconsistent turnaround. It is kind of a weird fit, too, given that the Bucks had just traded for Richard Jefferson.
9. Charlotte - D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas. I like Augustin more than most do and I won't criticize the Bobcats for taking another undersized point guard, since they seem intent on moving incumbent Raymond Felton. I do think that Augustin can be T.J. Ford -- one of his predecessors at the helm of the Longhorns -- with a jumper. But he's really small and not as quick as Ford, and he's going to have a lot of problems on the defensive end.
Still, he has the ability to score in the lane, although I do think he'll be affected more than most by the increased physicality in the pros. He's going to have to do a lot of finishing while getting bumped, and I'm not sure he's strong enough to do that. He's a very good passer, and I think as long as he understands his role as a setup man and doesn't try to prove himself as a scorer, he'll be a good floor leader at the next level.
10. New Jersey - Brook Lopez, C, Stanford. Young big men who aren't sure things fall into two groups: Bangers and soft skill players. The former group -- guys like the Hawks' Al Horford, the Bulls' Joakim Noah, and Lopez' brother, Robin, who went five picks later to Phoenix -- tend to put up better numbers right away, but they also flatten out more quickly.
Brook falls into the latter group. I'd like to think the rebounding and shotblocking his brother trades on is in him somewhere, but he has to show a willingness to do it. If he does, his ceiling is high, because he's very skilled for 7'1". He's got a good shooting touch, although a limited post arsenal, which he'll need to expand if he's going to be a double figure scorer in the NBA, now that he'll be up against more guys closer to his size. I expect teams to be physical with him, and how he responds will go a long way toward defining his career, particularly early on. He's great value at 10, for sure.
11. Indiana -- Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona. Indiana later moved this pick to Portland. Bayless is great value here. He excelled in a pro style system at Arizona, and I think he's the peer of Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo in terms of scoring. He doesn't have their size, though, which ranks him below these guys.
Still, he can take over games without taking bad shots, which will serve him well in the NBA -- the Blazers can trust him with the ball. He's not the playmaker Rose is, but unlike guys like Mayo and Westbrook, he'll be playing alongside a two -- Brandon Roy, to be specific -- who has proven he can run the team.
12. Sacramento - Jason Thompson, PF, Rider. I actually saw Rider a couple times earlier in the year, but I don't remember enough Thompson to make an evaluation here. The Kings obviously saw something they liked. Shrug.
13. Portland - Brandon Rush, G, Kansas. Rush went to Pacers in the Bayless deal. He actually reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy in that he can penetrate -- even coming off the knee problems that kept him out of last year's draft -- and shoot. For those comparisons to be apt, though, he'll have to prove he can distribute the way Roy does.
I'm confident that he can; he's the kind of guy who makes the right decision with the ball. The Pacers have T.J. Ford to run the point now, but they eventually should feel comfortable giving him the ball to run the offense. A very solid selection at this stage; he's the kind of player you can't really see being a bust.
14. Golden State - Anthony Randolph, F, Lousiana State. Odd pick given that the Warriors took Brandan Wright last year, a similarly athletic four who really produced nicely once he got some run towards the end of last year. He runs well but is pretty limited offensively; not DeAndre Jordan (the thin, lanky freshman center from Texas A&M who went 35th to the Clippers) limited, but I actually like a guy like JaVale McGee (the lanky sophomore center from Nevada who went 18th to the Wizards) more in the half court. Fortunately for Randolph, Golden State -- at least under head coach Don Nelson -- doesn't do a lot of playing in the half court.
Randolph's length -- 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan -- and athleticism made him an effective shotblocker in his one season at LSU; he blocked 2.3 shots per game last year. However, at just 197 pounds, he's going to get pushed around a lot more defensively in the NBA, and that's going to stop him from being an effective on-ball defender. He'll still get his fair share of blocks coming from the weak side, but he won't be the defensive force he was in college.
posted by H.S. Slam, Ph.D at 10:20 PM
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