Sweet 16 Breakdown: Midwest and South

Pitt and Xavier played more defense than I thought, and Missouri outgunned Memphis, but I was right on elsewhere: Duke lost to Villanova in large part because Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer combined to go 4-for-32 from the field, and Connecticut was too strong for Purdue. Let's look at tonight's games:

MIDWEST
#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona. As a commenter to yesterday's post mentioned, I'm something of a sucker for Arizona when it comes to the tournament. Given that I'm not all that high on Louisville -- I watch them and I just can't figure out how they are good as they are -- the temptation is there to pull the trigger on a Wildcat upset.

I don't think it's going to happen, though. The 'ville is a bad matchup for the 'cats. As well as Nic Wise has played this year -- I distinctly remember asking aloud at some point this year, "When did Nic Wise get good at basketball?" -- he's still prone to getting a little out of control, deadly against a team that uses full-court pressure the way the Cardinals do. Arizona doesn't have another really solid ballhandler in the backcourt, and they might do well to have Chase Budinger help bring it up.

While it's not all that rare that you see players on opposing teams who will end up in the NBA, it is a little more rare when those players go head to head. Watching Budinger go against Terrence Williams should be a lot of fun, and Williams will want to avoid getting into a scoring contest with Budinger, which given his unselfish nature, shouldn't be hard to do. Potential lottery picks Jordan Hill and Earl Clark will battle it out down low, too. Give the advantage on the inside to Louisville -- Hill also has to deal with Samardo Samuels.

It could happen, but it would take a near-perfect game from the Wildcats.

#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas. A couple of big-name programs who quietly had very strong years, and yet neither of these teams really strikes you as a scary one. (I'm pretty unimpressed with the whole South region.) The point guard matchup should be a good one, with Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas going up against Sherron Collins. Lucas is a blaze with the ball, while Collins, though plenty quick, is a bit more powerful.

I honestly don't have much to say here -- let's just pick the Spartans and move on.

SOUTH
#1 North Carolina v. #4 Gonzaga. The Tar Heels are beatable, but I think it's going to take a team that is a little bit better defensive than the Bulldogs to do it. Carolina's point guard, Ty Lawson, is going to play despite a toe injury, and though he was hampered somewhat in the first two games, he's still plenty quick enough with the ball to wreak all kinds of havoc on the opposition.

Inside, I think Tyler Hansbrough is probably too tough and physical for Josh Heytvelt, who seems less and less interested in mixing it up underneath as his career goes on. Similarly, as much as I like Austin Daye, I'm not sure he's big and strong enough to be effective for a full game against Carolina's depth.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse. The game of the night, if you ask me, and it's actually the early game in this region. Syracuse was one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament, and Oklahoma one of the coldest.

The Orange seem to be a popular pick, and I can see why. The two teams have such contrasting strengths that it's as easy to envision Jonny Flynn sojourning into the lane time and again, zipping passes to Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins for open threes as it is to picture Blake Griffin finding holes in the Syracuse 2-3 zone and going for one of the 20-point, 20-rebound games that seem to be his signature.

I think Syracuse can win this one, but Oklahoma is the favorite. The Orange defense has not been as good this season as we've come to expect from them, and it's not because they don't get out on three-point shooters. There are too many holes in the middle of that zone, and you can't give Blake Griffin the ball there. He's got the combination of size, strength, and ballhandling ability that he can do a ton of damage from the high post. Griffin does like to spin dribble a little too much, a move that can be dangerous in traffic, and so Syracuse forwards Rick Jackson, Paul Harris, and Kristof Ongenaet should be prepared to step in and take the charge. Getting Griffin in foul trouble would be huge.

Earlier in the season, I might have said that Arinze Onuaku was a decent matchup for Griffin, but knee injuries have really slowed him late in the season. He's just not the same player, and I don't think he can effectively play Griffin on either end. His reduced mobility, too, will be a problem on the glass. Rebounding out of the 2-3 is always tough, and that's exacerbated when you're up against an athletic, mobile guy like Blake Griffin. And Blake's older brother, Taylor, is no slouch either.

I'd like the 'cuse a bit more if Paul Harris were playing better, but he hasn't been himself for several games, dating back to the Big East tournament. Flynn is every bit the point guard that Lawson and Lucas are, and Rautins and Devendorf are marksmen. I'm just not sure Syracuse has enough to overcome the Sooners' obvious interior advantage.