Thursday Sweet 16 picks

I should start by pointing out, as my father did to me, that I went 8-for-8 on my picks on Sunday. Not that there was too much to slip up on on that pacticular day, but perhaps it lends me a little credibility now that half of the Final Four I submitted on my bracket is gone.

#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: It was reported today that Arinze Onuaku will once again not play for the Orange, and that he hasn't practiced or played since he injured his quad on March 11. There are teams remaining in the field against whom I think this would be a big problem. From what little I know of Butler, however -- and it's very little -- the Bulldogs are not one of them. Syracuse really laid it on Gonzaga in the second round, while Butler really struggled. In a survive-and-advance format like this one, a team's past performance doesn't really matter from game to game, and especially not from weekend to weekend -- so I'm not saying that Butler can't win. But I am saying that it would take something like foul trouble for Rick Jackson and mediocre nights from Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins for it to happen. In other words, Butler doesn't control who wins this game; Syracuse does, and that's why they are the pick.

#2 Kansas State vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Both of these teams have been impressive so far in this tournament, although I think that Pittsburgh -- the #3 seed and Xavier's second round victim -- was overrated by the selection committee, and that BYU -- which fell to K-State in the second-round -- was overrated by a Jimmer Fredette-crazy media and general public. KSU, led by Jacob Pullen, held Fredette to 21 points, which qualifies as keeping him in check. X's Jordan Crawford, who has averaged 27.5 points in two tournament games, is the next challenge -- and a different one. Where Fredette was crafty, Crawford is athletic and powerful -- and, at 6-4, four inches taller than Pullen. I expect Frank Martin to start the 6-5 Dominique Sutton on Crawford, the way he started him on Fredette. If, however, Sutton struggles with the assignment the way he did against BYU, Crawford's height advantage might give Pullen more trouble than Fredette did.

Of course, Pullen poses plenty of problems on the other end of the court, where he turned in one of the tournament's best individual performances with 34 points -- including 7-of-12 from three-point range -- against the Cougars, despite apparent hip and shoulder injuries.

Really, there are just a bunch of very good players in this game: Crawford and Pullen; Jason Love and Terrell Holloway for Xavier; Sutton and Denis Clemente for Kansas State. I expect a very good game, and I give the edge to the Wildcats because I trust Pullen and Clemente down the stretch more than I trust Crawford and Holloway. There's just something a little bit reckless about the latter two.

#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: Like their Big East counterparts Syracuse and Onuaku, West Virginia will also be without one of their starters. Point guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant will miss the rest of the tournament after breaking a bone in his foot. I'm not really sure how Bryant's absence affects this game. The Mountaineers have a capable replacement in Joe Mazzulla, who is a former starter and who actually played 24 minutes to Bryant's 16 in WVU's second-round win over Missouri. And, let's face it, a guy named Truck wasn't going to be able to guard U-Dub's lightning-quick point guard, Isaiah Thomas, anyway. The problem for West Virginia is that Mazzulla, while a good defender, can't guard Thomas, either ... and now they don't really have anyone to play behind Mazzulla ... and Mazzulla, who to be fair has suffered from a severe shoulder injury that has destroyed his shot, is, at best, not a complete liability on offense (if you catch what I'm saying). West Virginia was able to hold Missouri's high-octane offense in check, but Washington's guards are better than Mizzou's and that's why I think they win.

The matchup to watch, by the way, is at small forward, where WVU's Mr. Clutch, Da'Sean Butler, the author of a half-dozen game-winning shots this season, squares off against Quincy Pondexter, who did his best Butler impression in round one against Marquette, driving left, stepping through, and banking in a leaner with fewer than two seconds left on the clock to beat the Eagles. NBA types are salivating at the prospect of watching these two square off, and you should be, too.

#1 Kentucky v. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Texas) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I still haven't really seen Cornell, so it'd be pretty disingenuous of me to pick them to beat UK, even though I clearly don't trust Kentucky (I had them losing to Texas in the second round). They have no business beating Kentucky, either. And yet, you can at least envision a scenario where it might happen. You can see the Big Red continuing to hit shot after shot -- they're shooting an incredible 58.8 percent for the tournament so far, against Temple and Wisconsin, for crying out loud, two programs with excellent defensive reputations. You can see the volatile DeMarcus Cousins getting frustrated early and getting in to foul trouble. You can see Patrick Patterson taking a few too many three-pointers to compensate. You can see John Wall trying to do too much on his own. You can see John Calipari panicking a bit on the sidelines. You can see the Wildcats missing key free throws down the stretch and blowing, in familiar fashion, another opportunity for Coach Cal to win his first national title.

The only problem with this scenario is that, like Syracuse in their matchup with Butler, Kentucky is the one who will ultimately determine the outcome of this game -- that is, playing their absolute best, Cornell still won't beat a UK team playing at or near the top of its game. And while I obviously had some concerns about Kentucky entering the tournament that are still valid -- their immaturity and free throw shooting, namely -- their results show that they were extremely focused in the first two rounds (though East Tenneesee State and Wake Forest -- one of the least-poised major conference teams I've seen this year -- weren't exactly tough tests). This would be an all-time upset.

West breakdown

The last of four regional breakdowns heading into the NCAA tournament, which tips Thursday.

(Midwest | East | South)

* I have a long history with Syracuse. Growing up in a state without a major conference program and attending undergrad at a Patriot League school, there's no power conference team that is natural for me to root for. With that said, I grew up with only the Big East on CBS to slake my college basketball thirst, and the Orange seemed to be on every Saturday back then. As a result, I've always had a soft spot for Jim Boeheim's bunch.

Back in 2002-2003 (the Carmelo Anthony year), I said I thought that Syracuse had a real shot to win the national title (which, of course, they eventually did). That's the only time I've ever said that, so I took real notice when I found myself thinking the same thing while watching the 'cuse earlier this year. Now, I'm not so sure. Syracuse has an outstanding team, a squad that complements each other well and has real chemistry. But the last several minutes of their Big East quarterfinal loss to Georgetown revealed a real problem for the Orange; namely, where does the ball going during crunch time?

Arinze Onuaku's knee injury didn't help matters, but he's really not a guy you'd expect Syracuse to go to late. There are basically three options for that role on this team. Wesley Johnson, the transfer from Iowa State, has had an All-America quality year, but part of his effectiveness is that he doesn't need the ball to affect a game. He often ends up with the ball, but he's not the kind of guy you run a play for when you need a basket. Scoop Jardine, who technically backs up Brandon Triche but is the effective starting point guard in that he plays most of the end-game in close contests, is more than willing to take the ball in his hands late, but for all his improvement this season, he still needs to be reined in a bit. And Andy Rautins, who I considered the most reliable of the options, made several bad decisions as the Hoyas took the lead and then completely disappeared for the last seven minutes.

The 'cuse should have more than enough to get by Vermont in the first round (though it will be fun to watch UVM's Marqus Blakely try to find the open areas in SU's vaunted 2-3 zone). But beginning with a second-round matchup against either Gonzaga or Florida State, Syracuse won't have a sure thing the rest of the way. They're not in a terribly difficult bracket, but given Onuaku's balky leg and the fact that they only go seven deep anyway, there's precious little margin for error. I expect them to go down in the regional final, should they make it that far, to Kansas State and its pair of go-to guys, Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

* Without having seen much of New Mexico, I can't say for sure that Pittsburgh is the weakest #3 in the tournament field, but to me, the Panthers top a relatively long list of over-seeded teams in this region, including Vanderbilt and Butler. I don't expect any of those three to survive the first weekend, with the latter two in real danger of losing their first-round matchups (to Murray State and UTEP, respectively).

* I'm not really sure what Florida is doing in the tournament. They are 21-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC, but with a number of close wins, including one at NC State in which a guy hit like a 75-footer at the horn to win. They have a mid-50s RPI, one spot lower than Mississippi State, to whom the Gators lost in the SEC semifinals. Their strength of schedule is a bit better than the Bulldogs', and that's surely what gave them a bid over MSU. But I didn't see anyone with Florida in their projected brackets on Selection Sunday, and I certainly don't have them in my second round.

Back tomorrow morning with quick picks for the day.

Sweet 16 Breakdown: Midwest and South

Pitt and Xavier played more defense than I thought, and Missouri outgunned Memphis, but I was right on elsewhere: Duke lost to Villanova in large part because Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer combined to go 4-for-32 from the field, and Connecticut was too strong for Purdue. Let's look at tonight's games:

MIDWEST
#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona. As a commenter to yesterday's post mentioned, I'm something of a sucker for Arizona when it comes to the tournament. Given that I'm not all that high on Louisville -- I watch them and I just can't figure out how they are good as they are -- the temptation is there to pull the trigger on a Wildcat upset.

I don't think it's going to happen, though. The 'ville is a bad matchup for the 'cats. As well as Nic Wise has played this year -- I distinctly remember asking aloud at some point this year, "When did Nic Wise get good at basketball?" -- he's still prone to getting a little out of control, deadly against a team that uses full-court pressure the way the Cardinals do. Arizona doesn't have another really solid ballhandler in the backcourt, and they might do well to have Chase Budinger help bring it up.

While it's not all that rare that you see players on opposing teams who will end up in the NBA, it is a little more rare when those players go head to head. Watching Budinger go against Terrence Williams should be a lot of fun, and Williams will want to avoid getting into a scoring contest with Budinger, which given his unselfish nature, shouldn't be hard to do. Potential lottery picks Jordan Hill and Earl Clark will battle it out down low, too. Give the advantage on the inside to Louisville -- Hill also has to deal with Samardo Samuels.

It could happen, but it would take a near-perfect game from the Wildcats.

#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas. A couple of big-name programs who quietly had very strong years, and yet neither of these teams really strikes you as a scary one. (I'm pretty unimpressed with the whole South region.) The point guard matchup should be a good one, with Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas going up against Sherron Collins. Lucas is a blaze with the ball, while Collins, though plenty quick, is a bit more powerful.

I honestly don't have much to say here -- let's just pick the Spartans and move on.

SOUTH
#1 North Carolina v. #4 Gonzaga. The Tar Heels are beatable, but I think it's going to take a team that is a little bit better defensive than the Bulldogs to do it. Carolina's point guard, Ty Lawson, is going to play despite a toe injury, and though he was hampered somewhat in the first two games, he's still plenty quick enough with the ball to wreak all kinds of havoc on the opposition.

Inside, I think Tyler Hansbrough is probably too tough and physical for Josh Heytvelt, who seems less and less interested in mixing it up underneath as his career goes on. Similarly, as much as I like Austin Daye, I'm not sure he's big and strong enough to be effective for a full game against Carolina's depth.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse. The game of the night, if you ask me, and it's actually the early game in this region. Syracuse was one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament, and Oklahoma one of the coldest.

The Orange seem to be a popular pick, and I can see why. The two teams have such contrasting strengths that it's as easy to envision Jonny Flynn sojourning into the lane time and again, zipping passes to Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins for open threes as it is to picture Blake Griffin finding holes in the Syracuse 2-3 zone and going for one of the 20-point, 20-rebound games that seem to be his signature.

I think Syracuse can win this one, but Oklahoma is the favorite. The Orange defense has not been as good this season as we've come to expect from them, and it's not because they don't get out on three-point shooters. There are too many holes in the middle of that zone, and you can't give Blake Griffin the ball there. He's got the combination of size, strength, and ballhandling ability that he can do a ton of damage from the high post. Griffin does like to spin dribble a little too much, a move that can be dangerous in traffic, and so Syracuse forwards Rick Jackson, Paul Harris, and Kristof Ongenaet should be prepared to step in and take the charge. Getting Griffin in foul trouble would be huge.

Earlier in the season, I might have said that Arinze Onuaku was a decent matchup for Griffin, but knee injuries have really slowed him late in the season. He's just not the same player, and I don't think he can effectively play Griffin on either end. His reduced mobility, too, will be a problem on the glass. Rebounding out of the 2-3 is always tough, and that's exacerbated when you're up against an athletic, mobile guy like Blake Griffin. And Blake's older brother, Taylor, is no slouch either.

I'd like the 'cuse a bit more if Paul Harris were playing better, but he hasn't been himself for several games, dating back to the Big East tournament. Flynn is every bit the point guard that Lawson and Lucas are, and Rautins and Devendorf are marksmen. I'm just not sure Syracuse has enough to overcome the Sooners' obvious interior advantage.