West breakdown

The last of four regional breakdowns heading into the NCAA tournament, which tips Thursday.

(Midwest | East | South)

* I have a long history with Syracuse. Growing up in a state without a major conference program and attending undergrad at a Patriot League school, there's no power conference team that is natural for me to root for. With that said, I grew up with only the Big East on CBS to slake my college basketball thirst, and the Orange seemed to be on every Saturday back then. As a result, I've always had a soft spot for Jim Boeheim's bunch.

Back in 2002-2003 (the Carmelo Anthony year), I said I thought that Syracuse had a real shot to win the national title (which, of course, they eventually did). That's the only time I've ever said that, so I took real notice when I found myself thinking the same thing while watching the 'cuse earlier this year. Now, I'm not so sure. Syracuse has an outstanding team, a squad that complements each other well and has real chemistry. But the last several minutes of their Big East quarterfinal loss to Georgetown revealed a real problem for the Orange; namely, where does the ball going during crunch time?

Arinze Onuaku's knee injury didn't help matters, but he's really not a guy you'd expect Syracuse to go to late. There are basically three options for that role on this team. Wesley Johnson, the transfer from Iowa State, has had an All-America quality year, but part of his effectiveness is that he doesn't need the ball to affect a game. He often ends up with the ball, but he's not the kind of guy you run a play for when you need a basket. Scoop Jardine, who technically backs up Brandon Triche but is the effective starting point guard in that he plays most of the end-game in close contests, is more than willing to take the ball in his hands late, but for all his improvement this season, he still needs to be reined in a bit. And Andy Rautins, who I considered the most reliable of the options, made several bad decisions as the Hoyas took the lead and then completely disappeared for the last seven minutes.

The 'cuse should have more than enough to get by Vermont in the first round (though it will be fun to watch UVM's Marqus Blakely try to find the open areas in SU's vaunted 2-3 zone). But beginning with a second-round matchup against either Gonzaga or Florida State, Syracuse won't have a sure thing the rest of the way. They're not in a terribly difficult bracket, but given Onuaku's balky leg and the fact that they only go seven deep anyway, there's precious little margin for error. I expect them to go down in the regional final, should they make it that far, to Kansas State and its pair of go-to guys, Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

* Without having seen much of New Mexico, I can't say for sure that Pittsburgh is the weakest #3 in the tournament field, but to me, the Panthers top a relatively long list of over-seeded teams in this region, including Vanderbilt and Butler. I don't expect any of those three to survive the first weekend, with the latter two in real danger of losing their first-round matchups (to Murray State and UTEP, respectively).

* I'm not really sure what Florida is doing in the tournament. They are 21-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC, but with a number of close wins, including one at NC State in which a guy hit like a 75-footer at the horn to win. They have a mid-50s RPI, one spot lower than Mississippi State, to whom the Gators lost in the SEC semifinals. Their strength of schedule is a bit better than the Bulldogs', and that's surely what gave them a bid over MSU. But I didn't see anyone with Florida in their projected brackets on Selection Sunday, and I certainly don't have them in my second round.

Back tomorrow morning with quick picks for the day.