South breakdown

Soldiering on with random thoughts on each region of the upcoming NCAA tournament.

(Midwest | East)

* Frankly, I find this region kind of boring, and I'm struggling to find things to write about. The consensus seems to be that the road is paved for top-seeded Duke to make the Final Four. With arguably the field's weakest #2 and #4 seeds, the selection committee certainly didn't make life overly tough on the Blue Devils. This Duke team is the most complete in years, though they are heavily reliant on Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith. But in Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers, the Devils have at least something resembling a frontcourt. They are the favorites to come out of this region, and I don't see much standing in their way.

* Villanova may not have deserved the #2 seed it got. They lost five of their last seven games and I don't think anyone who watched the two teams at the end of the year could honestly say that the Wildcats were better than Georgetown. Given, however, that the Hoyas finished the regular season with the eighth-best record in the Big East and that the group of #3 seeds is otherwise pretty weak, perhaps Villanova simply got their seed by default.

Underestimating 'nova teams under Jay Wright has been risky business in the tournament, however, and he's got his usual guard-driven attack. Scottie Reynolds has grown up as much as anyone in the country, and they have a bunch of really good perimeter players. The real difference between this team and the one that advanced to the national semifinals is that they are missing Dante Cunningham, but just as there aren't a lot of obstacles for Duke, there aren't that many for Villanova. A matchup with Duke in the regional final would pit Wildcat swingman Taylor King against his old team.

* Other than Villanova, the teams that might give the Blue Devils the most trouble play each other in the first round. I saw California when they came down to LA to play USC, and little Jerome Randle is as good a player I've seen this year. Louisville has had its ups and downs, but those ups include beating Syracuse twice. I give the slight edge to Cal, because the Bears are experienced and consistent on the perimeter, whereas the Cardinals, particularly Edgar Sosa, are up and down.

* One team that might have challenged Duke is Purdue. Up until a few weeks ago, the Boilers were in contention for a top seed themselves, but a season-ending knee injury to Robbie Hummel sent them stumbling down the stretch. Whether their high seed is reflective of the committee's opinion of Purdue's potential without Hummel or more of a result of their actual performance (they scored 11 points in the first half of a 27-point loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten semifinals) is unclear, but they are certainly a different and less intimidating team than they were in January. Siena, their first-round opponent, is a popular upset pick, and even without knowing anything about the MAAC champions other than they were something of a darkhorse to start the year, it's a selection I'm tempted to make, just based on Purdue's recent struggles.

* Notre Dame is as interesting as any team in the tournament. Never known for their defense, the Irish were forced to slow their tempo way down and focus on locking the opposition up when Luke Harangody went down late in the year. ND responded with six straight wins -- including two over Pittsburgh and one over Georgetown -- before narrowly losing to West Virginia in the Big East quarters.

Harangody has been back for the last few games, but this is very much a "new' Notre Dame team, with Harangody even still coming off the bench. What's interesting about them is that unlike most grind-it-out teams, about which you worry about falling behind in a tournament setting and then not having the firepower to catch up, the Irish are theoretically the same team that was lighting up the scoreboard earlier in the year. An ability to switch styles, if necessary, might come in handy. They have their work cut out for them, however, first against an Old Dominion team that beat Georgetown in December, and then probably a very explosive Baylor squad.

* A quick note about the 7/10 game between Richmond and St. Mary's: Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and Gaels center Omar Samhan both aren't as good as people will tell you leading up to this game. Anderson is quick and explosive but makes too many bad decisions; Samhan is slow and unathletic and relies on major conference size to excel in a mid-major conference. These two teams seem to be the darlings of many prognosticators, but I don't see either of them really challenging Villanova in the second round.