Breaking Down the East and Southwest

(I broke down the other two regions yesterday.)

EAST

First round upsets: With an unprecedented 11 teams in the tournament field, the Big East is going to be both over-seeded in certain instances and under-seeded in certain instances. Both conditions are present in this region. On the one hand, there's fifth-seeded West Virginia, a pretty uninspiring team that struggles to put the ball in the basket. On the other, there's 11th-seeded Marquette, an experienced squad that has played (and, admittedly, lost) more close games than any other school in the country over the last couple of seasons.

I like Clemson to knock off the Mountaineers. I knew they were good defensively, which they showed in their play-in win over UAB on Tuesday. What I didn't know was how good they were offensively, which they demonstrated a little bit against the Blazers but more potently in their ACC Tournament loss to Carolina. Moreover, I loved the way they bounced back from giving that game away to the Tar Heels by beating UAB handily. At the risk of putting too much stock in one game against a team that most didn't feel deserved an NCAA bid, Clemson appears to be a team that's still growing.

I also like the Golden Eagles to upset Xavier. There's a philosophy in horse racing that says that you shouldn't bet on a horse that has too many second-place finishes; that's a horse that doesn't know how to win a race. Well, despite all their close losses this year and last, I refuse to buy that Marquette is such a horse. And the Musketeers haven't done much outside of their regular-season run in the A-10.

Bracket Buster: North Carolina. I fully recognize that UNC is a different team with freshman Kendall Marshall starting at point guard. In fact, I was one of the ones wondering when coach Roy Williams would insert Marshall in the starting lineup in place of the underachieving (and now departed) Larry Drew. So I know that the Tar Heels of late are the real Tar Heels.

With that said, I have them going out in the second round to Washington. In addition to my usual complaints that Williams-coached teams don't defend, I really didn't like the way they came out in any of their three conference tournament games. Sure, they managed to win two of those, but you're playing with fire when you continually spot good teams a big lead like that. As much as I like Marshall, he looked afraid of the moment in the ACC title game against Duke, while fellow freshman Harrison Barnes looked like he was trying to do too much. I also really like Washington, who pulled this exact same routine last year: High expectations to start the year, a somewhat disappointing regular season, and then a Pac 10 tournament championship. Last year, the Huskies made it to the Sweet 16; I have them going an extra round this year.

On the other hand, Carolina, if they put it together, can blow through their half of the bracket into the Elite 8. Especially if the Heels can get comfortable in their first matchup with Long Island, they could do some damage.

Final Four pick: Ohio State. I picked them as my champion back in November, and I'm not changing now. They've got everything you could ask for in a college basketball team: veteran leadership (David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford), wing scoring (Lighty and Buford), outside shooting (Diebler, Lighty, Buford, and Aaron Craft), post offense (Jared Sullinger), rebounding (Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale), a shotblocker (Lauderdale), a steady hand at point guard (Craft), and a strong overall defense. The one thing missing, perhaps, is the bench, but they defend well without fouling, so foul trouble isn't as big of a problem as it would be with other teams that aren't that deep. I think their road to the Final Four is tougher than for many other top seeds, but not tough enough to get me to change my pick.

SOUTHWEST

First round upsets: I think Florida State and Texas A&M is the toughest first round matchup to pick, and I'm taking the Seminoles mainly because of my minor obsession with Chris Singleton. He should be back from the broken foot that kept him out at the end of the year, and he's the best, most versatile defensive player I've ever seen at the college level.

Another team that was missing its star is Georgetown, and the Hoyas should have Chris Wright back for their first-round matchup with VCU. Frankly, I think Georgetown fits into the over-seeded Big East team category that includes West Virginia and Cincinnati, but I would feel a lot better picking USC in this matchup. USC lost to VCU, though, and now, if I go with my gut, I'm going with a team that lost six games in league play. I'm sticking with it, though. Wright's return will help Georgetown handle VCU's pressure defense, but he's likely to be rusty and wear down a bit. And we've seen what happens to the Hoyas without him in the lineup.

Bracket buster: Louisville. Up until, like, a minute ago, I had Louisville going to the Final Four. And I think there's a chance they do it. But I don't think they have the bodies inside to deal with the Morris twins, not with Rakeem Buckles out. I love the Cardinals, though, especially Peyton Siva.

Final Four pick: Kansas. I hate that I'm going straight chalk this year, but I take some solace in the fact that these four teams have been, hands down, the best four teams all season long. My "sense" of Kansas is that they've had a turbulent, uneven year, and they have -- off the court. On the court, they've fought through injuries and suspensions and managed to lose only two games. They're deep, they can hit the three but don't rely on it too much, they've got the Morris kids inside, and they have the motivation to get back after last year's shocking second-round exit. I'm gonna kick myself if they don't make it, but as of now, they're in my title game (losing to Ohio State).