Breaking Down the West and Southeast

As you know, the final field of 64 isn't set yet. (The exciting finish between UNC-Asheville and Arkansas-Little Rock aside, this "First Four" thing basically sucks. As I and many others expected, adding four at-large teams hasn't solved any of the bubble problems; instead of more deserving teams getting in, there are now simply more undeserving teams whose bids the committee has to justify to similarly unqualified schools that were left out. As you expand the number of teams that participate, it becomes harder to differentiate between the ones you let in and the ones you leave out. Plus, the product gets diluted. Those who think a playoff system for college football is the answer, take note.)

However, two regions -- the West and the Southeast -- are set. So a few thoughts on those regions first, and I'll tackle the other two regions tomorrow, after Texas-San Antonio vs. Alabama State and VCU vs. USC (Fight On!).

WEST

First-round upsets: There are two big ones that I like. The first is Oakland over Texas, for three reasons: Oakland is tourney-tested and played a bunch of power conference teams tough this season, even winning at Tennessee; Texas stumbled a bit down the stretch in the regular season; and Rick Barnes teams that finish that way tend to underachieve in the postseason, too. The second is Missouri over Cincinnati, because I think the Bearcats' biggest advantage is Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas in the post, and I don't think they have the poise in the backcourt to not get sped up by the Tigers' frenetic pace. Mizzou always burns me in the tournament, though, so pick accordingly.

Bracket buster: Texas. As noted, I have them losing to Oakland in the first round, but they have the talent to bust my bracket by going to the Final Four. It's certainly perilous to ignore a team that became the first to win a game at Kansas' Phog Allen Fieldhouse in 69 tries. Texas has the athletes to give Duke trouble, a bona fide wing scorer in Jordan Hamilton, and Tristan Thompson, perhaps the best freshman big man I saw this year that isn't named Jared Sullinger.

Final Four pick: Duke. For what it's worth, I'm not that high on the defending national champs. They rely too heavily on the three-point shot, and while they got away with it last year, I think you can credit a lot of that to a very favorable draw. So I was looking for a team to beat them early, but, alas, it seems like the draws opens up well for them again. Arizona doesn't defend well enough, Connecticut can't ride Kemba Walker forever, and I have a hard time putting a relatively untested San Diego State team in the Final Four. So Duke it is, almost by default.

SOUTHEAST

First round upsets: One thing I find very interesting about this region is the inclusion of Kansas State and Michigan State. Both started the season as trendy Final Four picks, ranked in the top five, I believe. Both underperformed, to say the least. Kansas State was actually out of the tournament after starting 1-4 in the Big 12, but played its way back in with a strong finish to the season. Michigan State, on the other hand, was mediocre all season, stumbling to 9-9 in the Big 10 and probably making the field on the strength of their non-conference schedule. The conference tournament was typical of the Spartans' season: Eking out a win over Iowa, then blowing out Purdue before losing to Penn State in the semis. Both teams are experienced, too. Why, then, am I picking the Wildcats to lose in the first round while I've got MSU beating Florida on its way to the Elite 8? Call it a hunch, I guess. Plus I think Utah State is a real formidable opponent. I also like Belmont to beat Wisconsin.

Bracket buster: A number of teams could really mess up my picks. I have St. John's in the Sweet 16, but without D.J. Kennedy an experienced Gonzaga team might be too much to overcome. BYU is everyone's darling, but you don't win too many NCAA Tournament games with one player, particularly one whose ballhandling and passing is as suspect as Jimmer Fredette's. In the end, though, Florida is the team that has me most worried. They're the SEC regular season champions and all the contenders in their half of the bracket have big question mark. I don't like the Gators mainly due to the shot selection of their guards, which is something I think a disciplined Spartan team can exploit.

Final Four pick: Pittsburgh. Similar to Duke, I'm having a hard time figuring out which team will beat the Panthers, particularly since I have so many of the favorites in this region losing in the first couple of rounds. I'm not in love with Pitt, but they're battle-tested and the draw opens up nicely for them.