Sunday Elite Eight Picks

Saturday was another good day of hoops in a tournament that keeps on giving. West Virginia took out Kentucky, the field's remaining favorite, in relatively convincing fashion (the 73-66 final score doesn't tell the whole story). And Butler pulled off its second straight come-from-behind victory over a major conference foe, dispatching Kansas State 63-56.

On to Sunday's picks.

#5 Michigan State vs. #6 Tennessee

Bracket: Kansas (over Georgetown) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: The Volunteers are in a regional final for the first time in the (men's) program history; Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is looking to get to his sixth Final Four at the school. None of that history really matters, however; all that matters are the kids who will decide the game tomorrow afternoon.

Michigan State really put the clamps on Northern Iowa on Friday night, but their performance on that end of the floor hid their weak offensive performance. They'll need better against Tennessee, a traditionally perimeter-oriented team that has two upperclassmen bigs, Wayne Chism and Brian Williams, playing extremely well. (Chism was especially impressive during the second half of the Vols' win over Ohio State on Friday.) You have to be good offensively and defensively to beat Tennessee, and without Kalin Lucas, I don't think the Spartans have quite enough.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor (South)

Bracket: Duke (over Villanova) | Pick: Duke

Comment: The Bears were mighty impressive in wiping Omar Samhan and St. Mary's from our collective memories on Friday, totally dominating from the opening tap. They are big where they are supposed to be big, quick where they're supposed to be quick, packed with skill, and able to put up points in a hurry. Their commitment to defense is, by my eye, a little suspect, but they're a good team.

Take a look, though, at who they beat to get here. St. Mary's last round. Old Dominion the round before. And Sam Houston State to open the tournament. Not a major conference team in the bunch. Now, Butler and Northern Iowa have showed that you don't have to be a BCS school to take down some of the games true powers, but even well-regarded ODU wasn't nearly as heralded as Butler (who was a five seed after all).

The point is that while Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are capable of getting hot enough to hit shots against anyone, they haven't had to do anything in this tournament against relatively elite athletes. (It's worth nothing that Baylor had trouble with both Old Dominion and Sam Houston State before the blowout of St. Mary's.) And for that reason, absent a real familiarity with Baylor, which I admittedly do not have, the pick has to be Duke. The Devils have already handled two top teams, California and Purdue. They have depth in the front court to deal with Ekpe Udoh and they have a backcourt to trade shots with Carter and Dunn. They've got a better commitment to defense, and a bit more of a track record. And after Sunday night, they'll have Coach K's eleventh Final Four.

(Plus, if Baylor wins, my bracket will have zero Final Four teams correct, the first time I can remember that happening. And I didn't even pick Kentucky and Syracuse!)