Thoughts on an Amazing First Day

What an incredible day! If you're reading this, you probably care enough to know more or less what happened -- and a lot happened -- so this won't be a recap as much as it will be a collection of more or less random thoughts, organized by game, as I frantically monitored the action on CBS and March Madness on Demand (MMOD).

#14 Ohio 97, #3 Georgetown 83 (Midwest)

#11 Old Dominion 50, #6 Notre Dame 50 (South)

#11 Washington 80, #6 Marquette 78 (East)

As I think I mentioned in my preview of the Midwest region, in justifying picking Georgetown to advance to the Elite 8, the toughest calls every tournament prognosticator has to make is how to handle teams that maybe underachieved for most of the season, but made a charge late in the season and/or during the conference tournament to nab a tournament bid or a better seed. The challenge is that the momentum these teams have built up tends to dissipate over the four or five days between Selection Sunday and the first round, and you have to decide which version of the team is the "real" one.

I had decided that Georgetown had turned a corner of sorts during its run to the Big East title game, that Notre Dame was way over-seeded after playing its way from out of the tournament to a #6 in just two or three weeks, and that Washington, winners of seven straight games (including the Pac 10 tournament) had found its footing as the team everyone expected them to be at the start of the season. Two out of three ain't bad.

As someone who takes pride in his ability to be realistic about the tournament, I am a little embarrassed that I fell into the Georgetown trap. In my defense, from what I understand (didn't see too much of this one) Ohio's blowout was more about the Bobcats than it was about the Hoyas. In order to pick a first-round upset of a #3 seed, you need to have confidence in the opponent, and I'm not sure how anyone could have had that much faith in a team that finished 9th in the MAC regular season. But behind the brilliance of Indiana transfer Armon Bassett and freshman D.J. Cooper, the Bobcats shot 58 percent for the game, made 13 of 23 three-pointers, and stunned the Hoyas.

On the other hand, I correctly predicted Notre Dame to lose and had Washington advancing. The former is a classic instance of the principle mentioned above; not only was Notre Dame over-seeded, they were facing Old Dominion, which won a very tough CAA tournament and beat Georgetown on the road in December. Washington edged out Marquette, another team whose seed may have been inflated by a series of late, close wins. The Huskies, with talented lightning bug guards Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton, along with legitimate NBA talent Quincy Pondexter (the author of the game-winning shot, a big-time drive and leaner past Jimmy Butler) definitely have the talent to make a lot more noise in this Dance.

#13 Murray State 66, #4 Vanderbilt 65 (West)

I just said that it's not enough to think a favored team is bad or overrated in order to pick them to lose in the first round, but that's kind of what I did with the Commodores. The Racers had enough going for them -- 30 wins; an impressive 17-1 run in the Ohio Valley, the support of President Obama, and the emotional angle of a reserve player's mother being killed in a car accident earlier in the week -- but really, my pick in this game was that Vandy just hasn't impressed me. They didn't impress anyone today. Credit Danero Thomas for hitting a tough pull-up over two guys at the horn to win it, but it did look to me like those two defenders got crossed up at a crucial moment, allowing Thomas to free himself, rise, and fire.

#7 BYU 99, #10 Florida 92 (2 OT) (West)

This barnburner got the whole thing started. Two players won it for the Cougars, who survived Florida possessions with the score tied at the end of both regulation and the first overtime. The first was Jimmer Fredette, who had 37 points. Fredette is a big-time scorer, but this was my first look at him, and I came away very impressed. The guy is incredibly crafty in the lane and around the rim, varying his timing and release points to throw off shotblockers' rhythms. There's chatter that he might slip into the first round of next summer's NBA Draft, though his physical gifts are not the stuff of most NBA first-rounders. His craftiness and lack of NBA size and quickness remind me a little bit of Davidson's Stephen Curry, who's enjoying a fantastic rookie season in Golden State running Don Nelson's high-octane offense. But Curry's brilliance comes from his ability to create enough space to get off his polished jumpshot, which is an entirely different story than coming up with ways to get by quicker guys your size and then finish over and around guys who are eight or ten inches taller than you. I understand that Fredette can hit the deep ball, and I'll be on the lookout for it when they face Kansas State in the second round.

The other key Cougar was Michael Loyd Jr., a junior who averaged less than five points a game this year but had 26 against the Gators. Loyd took over during two key stretches; a 2:15 streak in the first half during which he went on his own personal 10-0 to bring BYU from down seven to up three; and then late in the first overtime and throughout the second, hitting key free throws. This is a delicate point to make, but it was certainly interesting to watch Loyd, the rare black BYU player, come in and boost a struggling Cougar team during that important stretch in the first half. I can only assume that Loyd is Mormon, given that he's from Vegas and goes to BYU (yes, Las Vegas has a large Mormon community) and it was hard not to imagine this scenario playing out when Loyd was younger, single-handedly leading a bunch of unassuming kids to victory.

One red flag I wanted to point out about BYU is how terribly they handled the end game on multiple occasions today (when you go to double overtime, you have multiple end game situations). At the end of the first overtime, with the score tied and the shotclock off, Fredette took off dribbling into the front court, then slowed and quite casually tried to move laterally among a number of Gator players. He was stripped, and if Florida had been able to convert, that would have been the game. Then, in the second overtime, when BYU seemingly had the game in hand, Loyd needlessly pushed the ball on multiple occassions and was fortunate to turn it over. They'll have to be more careful in crunch time against Kansas State.

#9 Wake Forest 81, #8 Texas 80 (OT) (East)

Kind of a fitting end to an incredibly frustrating season for the Longhorns. I watched this game intermittently (my TV was tuned to Tennessee-San Diego State for most of it) and every time I looked, it appeared that Texas was playing great defense but not getting anything to fall on the offensive end. Hell, I saw Dexter Pittman miss two shots from one foot late in regulation, and I also saw Avery Bradley save any chance of victory by making an incredible block on an Ish Smith breakaway with a minute or so to go. After a frantic end to regulation, which saw a no-call on what I thought was a clear Wake foul on a dunk attempt, followed by a traveling call on the ensuing inbounds pass, and then one of two for Texas to tie the score, it looked like the Longhorns would prevail, going up eight in overtime while capitalizing on Wake Forest turnovers. Missed free throws and a failure to control the defensive glass, however, paved the way for Smith's game winning jumper with about a second and a half left.

It's widely believed that locker room issues derailed what was once a promising season (remember, the 'horns won their first 17 games and were at one point ranked #1 in the country). And I couldn't help but notice that after Smith's dagger, Texas coach Rick Barnes had a timeout but didn't use it. Sure, it was worth nothing but a Hail Mary, but a lot can happen in under two seconds, like a foul or a basket. I'm not saying he did it on purpose, but symbolically, it was almost as if Barnes wanted the season to be over.

#2 Villanova 73, #15 Robert Morris 70 (OT) (South)

From what I understand, the officials gave this one to the Wildcats, bailing out Scottie Reynolds again and again in the final few minutes of regulation. That's a shame, because from what little I saw, the Colonials played with a ton of moxie. Plus, 15 over 2 upsets are rare (only four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985) and rare is always fun. Oh well. Hard to complain with everything else we got today.

For Villanova fans and those whose brackets depend on the Wildcats winning a few more games, remember that Villanova did this last year, advancing to the Final Four after trailing American by 14 early in the second half. That game was all I could think of today as I tracked the score, figuring that 'nova would eventually turn it on. Then it started to get late, then really late, and I didn't think they'd pull it off. They did, but just barely.

#10 St. Mary's 80, #7 Richmond 71 (South)

I was right that the Spiders' Kevin Anderson would prove to be nothing special (16 points, 4 assists, no resistance when the game started to get out of hand), but I was wrong when I said that the Gaels' Omar Samhan would disappoint. I don't know if he reads 19-9 or what, but he dominated with 29 points and 12 boards, leading his team to a remarkable 40-17 edge on the glass. And he did it despite being saddled with a little bit of foul trouble. Well done, Omar.

Here's the thing, though: My contention is that Samhan's stats are inflated because his 6-11, 260-pound frame is simply too big for most West Coast Conference foes. Richmond, out of the Atlantic 10, doesn't have that major conference size, either. So I'm not sure how much Samhan's performance on Thursday really proves. I'm not sure how much we can take from whatever Samhan might do against Villanova, either. The Wildcats are a Big East team, the bruisiest of conferences, but they are perimeter-oriented. They have some big bodies, but their two tallest kids are freshman, and one is the wispy Maurice Sutton. A random canvass of Villanova's games this year shows 29-14 and 19-8 (including 11-of-14 from the line) performances from Georgetown's Greg Monroe, for example.

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #8 UNLV 66 (Midwest)

#6 Tennessee 62, #11 San Diego State 59 (Midwest)

These games are only related in that I disagree with the way UNLV and Tennessee defended their respective opponents' final possession, and they did in a similar way.

With the game tied and just over a shotclock remaining, UNLV stayed in the trapping halfcourt defense that had forced a couple of turnovers and bad shots late. While I generally think it's a good idea to not let the team holding for one shot just dribble out the clock and get the ball to whoever they want, I do think this is a risky tactic, for two reasons. The first reason is that it's easy to accidentally foul, as UNLV did and were fortunate enough to have officials let slide (although given the ultimate result of the play, they'd have been better off had the refs blown the whistle on one of the two bumps that occurred 35 feet from the bucket). The second is that such a defense often leaves individuals open, and if those individuals get the ball, they'll often have a clean look at the basket. That's what happened with UNI; after some tense moments on the perimeter, the ball swung to Ali Farokhmanesh, a career 37 percent three-point shooter who buried a 25-footer over a late challenge with under five seconds to go.

Tennessee was up three under ten seconds after nailing two free throws and chose to harass SDSU as the Aztecs brought it up court. Forcing them to run time off the clock is good, but SDSU got a decent look from a very similar spot to where Farokhmanesh hit his shot. Credit Wayne Chism for making a quick recovery and an athletic challenge without fouling.

My problem here is that inside 27 feet or so, an open look is almost always a better shot for most college players than one off the dribble. So if I'm a coach, I don't want anyone spotting up to win or tie the game. Given that it's very difficult to trap for most of a possession and then fall into a more traditional defense at the end of the clock, I think the better move is to put a little less pressure on the ball.

#3 New Mexico 62, #14 Montana 57

Still don't know much of anything about the Lobos, as I was watching Tennessee-SDSU and Wake Forest-Texas throughout much of this one. Nothing too impressive from UNM, but the fight from the Grizzlies is even more impressive given that Anthony Johnson, he of the 42-point game in the Big Sky championship, scored six points and hit just one of 12 shots. As Mark from Sham Sports tweeted after the game, however: "Why did Anthony Johnson have 42 in the [Big Sky] Championship game and an 0-for tonight? Because Weber St. were small and unathletic, like him." Hear, hear.

#5 Butler 77, #12 UTEP 59 (West)

Called it, didn't see it, still don't expect the Bulldogs to have much trouble with Murray State in the second round.

#3 Baylor 68, #14 Sam Houston State 59 (South)

Called it, didn't see it, still expect that Baylor will get bounced by Old Dominion in the second round.

#1 Kentucky 100, #16 East Tennessee State 71 (East)

#1 Kansas 90, #16 Lehigh 74 (Midwest)

#2 Kansas State 82, #15 North Texas 62 (West)

Congratulations to the Wildcats, Jayhawks, and, um, Wildcats, for winning comfortably on a day when so many teams that should have, didn't. This is the first time I can remember that I didn't have to watch a second of a 1/16 or 2/15 matchup on one of the first two days of the tournament -- a combination of being on the West Coast, where there are no top seeds this year, and the great slate of games.

This tournament has already met my expectations for everything I want out of March Madness. I don't expect an improvement, but hopefully we can keep the close games coming.