Saturday's Elite Eight Picks

Tonight was a solid, though largely unspectacular night in this NCAA Tournament, with no game able to serve as an encore to Thursday's incredible Kansas State-Xavier contest. The game that came closest was Tennessee's upset of Ohio State in the Midwest region. I panned the officials for their missed call when KSU was trying to foul at the end of its game Thursday night, so I should applaud them for a great no-call at the end of this one. After OSU superstar Evan Turner grabbed a rebound and dribbled out to the three-point line to take one last shot to try and tie the game, J.P. Prince went up and blocked the shot. Turner went down awkwardly, partly from the force of the block, partly in an attempt to draw a call. But the officials stood silent, even as the Buckeye bench erupted. Replays vindicated the stripes, however, showing a clean block, and also that, if anything, Turner initiated contact with Prince with his non-shooting arm. Great job on a tough call by the refs.

Elsewhere, St. Mary's proved to be no match for Baylor, and Duke wore Purdue down. And Michigan State shattered Northern Iowa's glass slipper in a vise grip, holding the Panthers to five second-half field goals, none over the final 10 minutes, in a 59-52 victory.

On to picks and analysis for Saturday's pair of Elite 8 games.

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas State (over Syracuse) | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Butler did on Thursday what I didn't think they could do; beat a skilled, much more athletic Syracuse team. The Orange did their part, coming out flat, forgetting about Wesley Johnson at the end of the game, taking ill-advised shots and making turnovers (Andy Rautins and especially Scoop Jardine being the biggest culprits). Because the story of the game was how poorly Syracuse played, I still don't have a very good feel for the Bulldogs. I know they have Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward, the last two Horizon players of the year. I know they have solid guards, like they always do. And I know they like to slow the pace way down.

I know a lot more about Kansas State. I know they've got two of the tournament's most spectacular, most prolific shotmakers in Jacob Pullen in Denis Clemente. Furthermore, while Pullen delivered the daggers in Thursday's double-overtime win over Xavier, it was the Wildcats' big men that did a lot of the damage during the extra periods. There are a whole list of adjectives to describe K-State: big, fast, tough, deep. They seem to have that "refuse to lose" attitude that successful teams have this time of year. They might not win the whole thing, but I think they spoil Butler's attempt to return home to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Washington) | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: In this game, I'm forced to choose between two teams I haven't trusted all tournament. After Thursday's win over Cornell, a lot was made about Kentucky's stifling defense, which, after the Big Red got off to a fast start, allowed just six points over the final 15 minutes of the first half. It's true, that's a damn impressive defensive performance, no matter who you do it against. (And Cornell is no ordinary group of Ivy Leaguers; they fairly cut up a couple of excellent defensive teams in the first two rounds.) The score at halftime was 32-16, and it appeared that the high-octane Wildcats showed that they could play offense as well as defense.

Here, however, is that I noticed: With 5:42 remaining the game, a Louis Dale three-pointer made the score 40-34, Kentucky. That's right; big, bad UK scored eight points in the first 14 minutes plus of the second half, almost as big a drought as Cornell's first-half dry spell. Even in the first 20 minutes, Kentucky was getting most of its points from their defense, in transition, not their halfcourt offense.

Maybe it wasn't a representative performance, but if they have that much trouble scoring against Cornell, how are they doing to do it against a tough defensive squad like West Virginia. (Struggling to score against Cornell isn't as forgivable as shutting them down is impressive, if that makes any sense.) Kentucky scored 190 points in the first two rounds of this tournament, but against lesser defensive teams. I didn't see either of those games, but I did see UK play well offensively only periodically in wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.

It feels weird to take the Mountaineers in this game, because I haven't been able to figure out how they keep getting it done. But, they do keep getting it done, and I think their toughness, poise, and experience gets them through. And I'm willing to go so far as to say that I think it won't be as close as you might expect.