UNI stuns Kansas; Day Four Picks

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #1 Kansas 67 (Midwest)

Gotta start here. What a game! Because Kansas, the top overall seed, was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, this upset ranks as one of the tournament's all-time surprises. Hours later, with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that we shouldn't have been caught off-guard. The Jayhawks were the favorites by default, the strongest team in a field devoid of truly great teams. This isn't like last year's Carolina's squad losing. But let's not take anything away from UNI.

What was really remarkable about this game is not that the Panthers one, but the way they won. Mid-majors aren't supposed to beat power conference heavies by crashing the boards, but two key offensive rebounds late saved the win. Little teams from the Midwest are supposed to win games like this by hitting an inordinate number of shots (see Ohio's first round-upset of Georgetown), but UNI shot just 40 percent from the floor and hit a not-ridiculous nine three-pointers (out of 26 attempts). The Panthers won by playing confident basketball, getting to the line as much as the bigger, more athletic Jayhawks.

And then there was the shot. You've probably seen the highlights now, but to briefly set the scene, Northern Iowa was in the process of pissing this game away with turnovers, really struggling to break Kansas' full-court pressure (one has to wonder why Bill Self didn't go to this defense earlier). With 42 seconds left, UNI had let KU get within one. After a timeout, UNI broke Kansas' pressure and had a two-on-one break, with Ali Farokhmanesh (who hit the game-winner in round one vs. UNLV) handling the ball on the right wing and another Panther underneath the basket. Conventional wisdom here is to hold the ball, run some clock, get fouled, and try to salt the game away at the free throw line.

What did Farokhmanesh do? He calmly dribbled to the three-point line. When the lone Kansas defender back didn't come out to him, Farokhmanesh calmly stepped into a three-pointer that was good the whole way. UNI by four, and the game was effectively over then.

It's easy to say that this was a good shot if it goes in, but a terrible shot if it misses. Figuring out whether this is right involves a complex calculation measuring the probability of making the shot, the probability of making both free throws if Farokhmanesh pulled up, and the probability of UNI winning with a one-, two-, three-, or four-point lead. Of course, Farokhmanesh didn't think about all those things. He simply saw an opportunity to seal the game and took it, and it's hard to blame the kid for that. And because of someone named Ali Farokhmanesh, the tournament is now wide open.

***

The rest of the day's games were decent-to-good overall, but there's not much to mention beyond the box scores. I'll save any thoughts I have on them for when I make my Sweet 16 picks next week. On to picks for tomorrow's eight second-round games:

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: The news that Arinze Onuaku will miss a second straight game with the quad injury he suffered against Georgetown makes it very tempting to pick Gonzaga here, but Gonzaga isn't really deep up front and I don't think Robert Sacre and Will Foster are enough to take advantage of the hole in the middle that will result from Onuaku's absence. I won't at all be surprised if the Zags win this one, particularly if their bevy of perimeter players can get an already thin 'cuse team in foul trouble.

#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (Midwest)

Bracket: Oklahoma State (over Ohio State) | Pick: Ohio State

Comment: A run through a mediocre ACC to the conference championship game and a win in the first-round keyed by unusually accurate free-throw shooting isn't enough to sell me on the Yellowjackets. The Buckeyes will have their hands full with Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal underneath, but GT doesn't take advantage of these guys enough. Defensively, the Jackets held Okie State's James Anderson in check, but Evan Turner is a more complete player than Anderson. Controlling his scoring his one thing, controlling his playmaking another.

#4 Michigan State vs. #4 Maryland (Midwest)

Bracket: Michigan State (over Houston) | Pick: Michigan State

Comment: The Terrapins looked much better in their opening round win over Houston than the Spartans did in beating New Mexico State, but MSU had a big lead for a while in that one. I think this one is basically a toss-up, but Maryland is weaker defensively and relies almost solely on Greivis Vasquez. Less has to go right for Michigan State to win that it does for Maryland to prevail, so the Spartans are the pick.

#2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri (East)

Bracket: West Virginia | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: Missouri's explosiveness may test a Mountaineer team that has trouble concentrating for all 40 minutes. It's easy to quickly fall behind the Tigers, and they have the potential to just run away with any game. But their unrelenting style also lends itself to allowing comebacks. Expect Bob Huggins to employ the 1-3-1 zone he occasionally favors to slow the pace down.

#4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Temple) | Pick: Cornell

Comment: I hate going against one of my picks like this, particularly when my bracket has Wisconsin in the Final Four (I had Texas, then Washington coming out of the East before settling on the Badgers. If I were making the pick now, I'd take Washington). But I made that pick knowing nothing about Cornell other than the fact that everyone had them beating Temple -- often a sign that a team is overrated. Now that I know that Cornell has a legitimate inside weapon and a bunch of guys who can shoot from the outside, I like them here. Wisconsin's struggles against Wofford in the first round certainly didn't help its case.

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Xavier | Pick: Xavier

Comment: I'm just not all that high on Pitt, which doesn't have a single outstanding player. You can't say the same about Xavier, which has Jordan Crawford. His first-round performance made a strong case that his name should be on the list of go-to guys alongside Evan Turner, De'Sean Butler, and now, Ali Farokhmanesh.

#4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M (South)

Bracket: Siena (over Utah State) | Pick: Purdue

Comment: This is purely a hunch pick, which is not surprising given that I didn't think enough of either favorite to win even their first-round matchup. The Boilermakers are playing with a little bit of a chip on their shoulders since being counted out after losing Robbie Hummel, and I think that'll make the difference. I think.

#1 Duke vs. #8 California (South)

Bracket: Duke | Pick: Duke

Comment: With Villanova's exit on Saturday at the hands of St. Mary's, I think Cal might actually be Duke's toughest remaining test on the way to the Final Four. The Devils don't have anyone as good as dimunitive Bear point guard Jerome Randle, but they have the three next-best players in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. Now that they finally have a front line, they win my vote.