Thursday Sweet 16 picks

I should start by pointing out, as my father did to me, that I went 8-for-8 on my picks on Sunday. Not that there was too much to slip up on on that pacticular day, but perhaps it lends me a little credibility now that half of the Final Four I submitted on my bracket is gone.

#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: It was reported today that Arinze Onuaku will once again not play for the Orange, and that he hasn't practiced or played since he injured his quad on March 11. There are teams remaining in the field against whom I think this would be a big problem. From what little I know of Butler, however -- and it's very little -- the Bulldogs are not one of them. Syracuse really laid it on Gonzaga in the second round, while Butler really struggled. In a survive-and-advance format like this one, a team's past performance doesn't really matter from game to game, and especially not from weekend to weekend -- so I'm not saying that Butler can't win. But I am saying that it would take something like foul trouble for Rick Jackson and mediocre nights from Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins for it to happen. In other words, Butler doesn't control who wins this game; Syracuse does, and that's why they are the pick.

#2 Kansas State vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Both of these teams have been impressive so far in this tournament, although I think that Pittsburgh -- the #3 seed and Xavier's second round victim -- was overrated by the selection committee, and that BYU -- which fell to K-State in the second-round -- was overrated by a Jimmer Fredette-crazy media and general public. KSU, led by Jacob Pullen, held Fredette to 21 points, which qualifies as keeping him in check. X's Jordan Crawford, who has averaged 27.5 points in two tournament games, is the next challenge -- and a different one. Where Fredette was crafty, Crawford is athletic and powerful -- and, at 6-4, four inches taller than Pullen. I expect Frank Martin to start the 6-5 Dominique Sutton on Crawford, the way he started him on Fredette. If, however, Sutton struggles with the assignment the way he did against BYU, Crawford's height advantage might give Pullen more trouble than Fredette did.

Of course, Pullen poses plenty of problems on the other end of the court, where he turned in one of the tournament's best individual performances with 34 points -- including 7-of-12 from three-point range -- against the Cougars, despite apparent hip and shoulder injuries.

Really, there are just a bunch of very good players in this game: Crawford and Pullen; Jason Love and Terrell Holloway for Xavier; Sutton and Denis Clemente for Kansas State. I expect a very good game, and I give the edge to the Wildcats because I trust Pullen and Clemente down the stretch more than I trust Crawford and Holloway. There's just something a little bit reckless about the latter two.

#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: Like their Big East counterparts Syracuse and Onuaku, West Virginia will also be without one of their starters. Point guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant will miss the rest of the tournament after breaking a bone in his foot. I'm not really sure how Bryant's absence affects this game. The Mountaineers have a capable replacement in Joe Mazzulla, who is a former starter and who actually played 24 minutes to Bryant's 16 in WVU's second-round win over Missouri. And, let's face it, a guy named Truck wasn't going to be able to guard U-Dub's lightning-quick point guard, Isaiah Thomas, anyway. The problem for West Virginia is that Mazzulla, while a good defender, can't guard Thomas, either ... and now they don't really have anyone to play behind Mazzulla ... and Mazzulla, who to be fair has suffered from a severe shoulder injury that has destroyed his shot, is, at best, not a complete liability on offense (if you catch what I'm saying). West Virginia was able to hold Missouri's high-octane offense in check, but Washington's guards are better than Mizzou's and that's why I think they win.

The matchup to watch, by the way, is at small forward, where WVU's Mr. Clutch, Da'Sean Butler, the author of a half-dozen game-winning shots this season, squares off against Quincy Pondexter, who did his best Butler impression in round one against Marquette, driving left, stepping through, and banking in a leaner with fewer than two seconds left on the clock to beat the Eagles. NBA types are salivating at the prospect of watching these two square off, and you should be, too.

#1 Kentucky v. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Texas) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I still haven't really seen Cornell, so it'd be pretty disingenuous of me to pick them to beat UK, even though I clearly don't trust Kentucky (I had them losing to Texas in the second round). They have no business beating Kentucky, either. And yet, you can at least envision a scenario where it might happen. You can see the Big Red continuing to hit shot after shot -- they're shooting an incredible 58.8 percent for the tournament so far, against Temple and Wisconsin, for crying out loud, two programs with excellent defensive reputations. You can see the volatile DeMarcus Cousins getting frustrated early and getting in to foul trouble. You can see Patrick Patterson taking a few too many three-pointers to compensate. You can see John Wall trying to do too much on his own. You can see John Calipari panicking a bit on the sidelines. You can see the Wildcats missing key free throws down the stretch and blowing, in familiar fashion, another opportunity for Coach Cal to win his first national title.

The only problem with this scenario is that, like Syracuse in their matchup with Butler, Kentucky is the one who will ultimately determine the outcome of this game -- that is, playing their absolute best, Cornell still won't beat a UK team playing at or near the top of its game. And while I obviously had some concerns about Kentucky entering the tournament that are still valid -- their immaturity and free throw shooting, namely -- their results show that they were extremely focused in the first two rounds (though East Tenneesee State and Wake Forest -- one of the least-poised major conference teams I've seen this year -- weren't exactly tough tests). This would be an all-time upset.