Day Two Recap

Texas 85, Oakland 81

I'm personally pretty disappointed at this result because I thought Oakland was a real sleeper, and sleepers making deep runs are what March is all about. Part of the reason why I liked them was all their experience playing power conference teams, and I wonder if that didn't hurt them a little bit. The Big Dance is never "just another game," but when you're a small school (like Morehead State) playing a powerhouse for the first time, the game takes on another level of urgency. I thought Oakland didn't match Texas in energy and intensity for most of the game, and the Grizzlies didn't value possessions in the first half. Maybe, just maybe, they didn't appreciate and respect the task at hand enough. That's not to say that playing a tough non-conference schedule is a bad idea for this reason; that would be an absurd conclusion. Just pointing out an interesting possible side effect ... Endgame aside, Texas looked awfully good offensively, though Oakland's defense was certainly complacent in that. They're very dangerous, and expect a high-scoring affair in the second round with Arizona. Both of those teams have the firepower to take out Duke in the Sweet 16 ... Oakland's Keith Benson is allegedly an NBA prospect. I've got mixed feelings. On the one hand, he's got some nice ball skills and he's got a Tyler Hansbrough-like release point around the rim, which is helpful for players who don't rely on strength and power. On the other hand, he's not terribly strong or powerful, which becomes more of a problem when you consider that he doesn't run the floor well. He was thoroughly outplayed by Texas freshman Tristan Thompson, and while there's no shame in that, it suggests to me that his odds of making an impact at the next level are long.

Michigan 75, Tennessee 45

Wow. Only caught a few minutes of this one, when the Wolverines made their big push at the end of the first half. Did it with defense and three-point shooting, which you expect from a John Beilein-coached team. I switched back to Oakland-Texas after and by the time I got back to it, Michigan was way in front and it wasn't worth watching. By all accounts, the Vols just gave up in the second half ... I think I heard that Michigan scored something like 58 of the game's 80 points. They also won by 30 without hitting a single free throw ... If this is the end for Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl, and I think it probably will be, it's a fitting final stain on his tarnished legacy at the school. I don't want to be mean-spirited, but it sure seems like he deserves what he's got coming to him. Cheating is one thing; it probably happens all over the country. Lying to the NCAA -- and then acting like you've taken responsibility for your actions by owning up to it afterwards -- is something else altogether. I also haven't liked the way Pearl has more or less insisted that this whole process, including all the attention as well as the eight-game SEC suspension he served, hasn't affected his team. That sort of scrutiny and uncertainty definitely did affect the kids, and by not acknowledging it, Pearl passes the responsibility to them from himself.

Notre Dame 69, Akron 56

If you're a Notre Dame fan, I don't think there's much reason to be concerned by the relatively small final margin and the fact that the Zips hung around through a good chunk of the second half. The Irish don't strike me as a club that is going to blow teams out unless shots fall, and while Mike Brey's team did shoot pretty well from three-point land, they didn't shoot very well from inside the arc. That could easily correct itself by the next game. Myself, I came in to this tornament skeptical of the Irish, and so I remain skeptical, but if you're optimistic about their chances, then nothing that happened Friday should change that.

George Mason 61, Villanova 57

Two problems with the officiating at the end here, both stemming from Wayns' miss down to with under ten seconds left. First, you have to call something there. I think it was a charge, but even if it was a block, there was way too much contact to let go. Jay Bilas makes this point all the time, but it's a good one and is worth repeating: If you protect shooters and legal defenders by calling fouls when they occur, you are letting the players decide the game. There are situations where you might let a little more contact go in the final seconds, but an offensive player running full bore into a defensive player is not one of them. Second, stop going to the monitor so much at the end of games to add a few tenths of a second. This time, it gave Villanova an extra timeout, a timeout it didn't have. I know you want to get it right, but if you allow for a half-second of reaction time between the whistle and the clock stopping on a tieup call in the first half, then you should allow for it in the final seconds, too ... It's fitting that Villanova would end a season in which it threw away a 16-1 start by throwing away a late lead ... Someone mentioned, either on the broadcast or on Twitter, that the two Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, were both playing well for the first time in a while. That's true, but even so, the Wildcats weren't playing that well as a group. They just kind of lost it this year, which happens to college teams sometimes ... Villanova had opportunities to win if it had made free throws and limited turnovers down the stretch. Jay Wright can't be happy that some of those key mistakes were made by his veteran leaders (Fisher and Stokes and Antonio Pena) ... George Mason got away with it, but after they came back to tie the score, they continued with their fullcourt press. I always think that's a mistake because your team is likely to be hyped up, and more likely to commit a foul or over-commit and give up an easy bucket, but it's particularly dangerous when the other team has as many good shooters as Villanova has. It didn't burn them, however, and once they went ahead by two, they switched to token pressure, which I did like.

Arizona 77, Memphis 75

I give young Memphis head coach a ton of credit for this one. I didn't think his athletic but wild team had much of a chance to beat Arizona, but they nearly did, and a lot of the reason why was Pastner's switching defensive looks. Memphis' 2-3 zone swarmed Derrick Williams, and Arizona did a really poor job of going inside-out to find good shots from the perimeter ... Coaches who are nervous about fouling up three with under ten seconds left nearly had fuel for their argument, as 'zona's Sean Miller did it, then saw his team cough up an offensive rebound on the free throw. But Williams swatted the putback, the second time this year he's preserved a win with a blocked shot in the final seconds (he did it against Washington in the regular season) ... Arizona now faces Texas in the second round. NBA types are salivating at a Williams-Thompson matchup, while college fans can look forward to an uptempo game without a lot of defense.

Duke 87, Hampton 45

Didn't watch any of the defending champs, and only wanted to for the return of Kyrie Irving, the freshman point guard who's been out forever with a toe injury. Early reviews are good. The Blue Devils are clearly a better team with Irving in the lineup, but I do wonder how well they'll adjust to a new body in the rotation. Nolan Smith had a hell of a year moving to the lead guard role after Irving's injury, and it may be tough to make another adjustment this late in the season. With that said, Irving is exactly what the Devils need to penetrate Michigan's zone defenses to create open looks for his teammate, and antidote to what I consider Duke's Kryptonite: a cold shooting evening. With Irving in the lineup, Duke should get better shots.

Florida State 57, Texas A&M 50

Man, these Seminoles really can defend! What really impressed me about their effort today is that they were about as good on that end of the court without Chris Singleton as they were with him. Singleton, whose minutes were limited in his first game back after breaking his foot, is the most versatile defensive player I've ever seen at this level. FSU forced aTm to take the shots that FSU wanted aTm to take, and they contest everything, even drives, without fouling ... It's going to be interesting to see how Notre Dame's patient, jumpshooting offense does against this Florida State D. FSU is pretty good at taking away your first option or two, and so I could see the Irish ending up with a lot of very tough shots at the end of the clock if they don't speed it up at least a little bit. Which, I should point out, is something they are capable of, which wasn't true last year ... Florida State probably will need to find just a bit more offense to beat ND, though. Singleton isn't an elite offensive player, but he probably was Florida State's best option. Derwin Kitchen stepped up in the second half today, and Michael Snaer is another important guy off the dribble. FSU has some shooters who have struggled this season; it wouldn't hurt if they started knocking down some shots.

Ohio State 75, Texas-San Antonio 46

Just an easy first-round victory for your 2011 national champions....

Kansas 72, Boston 53

The first of two really boring mismatches in the early set of evening games. The Terriers kept it interesting in the first half, but were outclassed in the second. With Kansas, it seems like it's often an effort/concentration thing.

Purdue 65, St. Peter's 43

The second of two really boring mismatches in the early set of evening games. I want to use this space to pay homage to the hero of the 1995 MAAC champion Peacocks, one Mike Frensley. Why will I always remember his name? Two reasons: 1) He didn't wear socks when he played, and 2) He wore a Nirvana t-shirt to a post-game press conference. What's he up to now? Apparently he's a musician, which means he still has a Myspace page. I'm not sure that Kurt Cobain would approve of "roots Americana," but have a listen.

North Carolina 102, Long Island 87

I only caught bits and pieces of this entertaining game, but I think the youthful Tar Heels got a little caught up in the moment. Carolina was never really in danger of losing this game, but after jumping out to a big first-half lead, they let LIU all the way back. UNC then built another big lead, and the Blackbirds' rebound wasn't quite as high the second time around. LIU's comebacks were fueled by bad shot selection and poor transition defense on North Carolina's part. I have to say, too, that even during Carolina's hot start, Long Island had plenty of quality looks from three-point land that didn't go down. This was a poor defensive effort from the Tar Heels and they are going to have to play better on that end in the second round.

Marquette 66, Xavier 55

This was a very impressive performance from Marquette against an experienced Xavier squad. The Golden Eagles' defense was remarkable all evening, holding Tu Holloway to five points and Mark Lyons to six. My criticism of Holloway this year has been his shot selection, but to his credit, he didn't force much on Friday; Marquette just didn't give him anything ... In addition to more or less shutting down the Musketeers' backcourt, Marquette's long, athletic wings getting to the bucket and scoring with the mid-range game. One thing to note moving forward, however, is that they were a bit shaky with their ballhandling at stretches, probably because not one of them is a true point guard, as far as I can tell. At one point in the first half, Xavier extending their man-to-man to halfcourt, and Marquette turned it over and three consecutive possessions. It might not hurt them, however, against Syracuse, since the Orange of course play that 2-3 zone.

Illinois 73, UNLV 62

I didn't watch more than a few seconds of this blowout -- and don't let the final score fool you, this was a blowout. I was watching Xavier-Marquette and by the time I got to it, Illinois was up 20, a lead they maintained through most of the second half. I don't think I saw Vegas during the regular season, so I can't say much about them. What I can say, however, is having watched the Illini a number of times, I'm shocked by this result. I took UNLV in my bracket solely on the basis of not being impressed with Illinois. Shows what I know. Anyway, this sets up a second round matchup with Kansas. Illinois fans have a special place in their, um, heart for old coach Bill Self, so this should be an intense matchup.

VCU 74, Georgetown 56

The Rams showed no ill effects from having played Wednesday night, really taking it to Georgetown from the get-go. In that regard, VCU is actually an ideal candidate for the First Four: Their preferred frenetic pace requires them to be both deep and well-conditioned. They shuttle guys in and out anyway, so fatigue wasn't much of a factor. Making 12 of 25 three-pointers doesn't hurt, either ... I feel bad for Hoya point guard Chris Wright, who missed the last several games of the season with a hand injury and was clearly out of rhythm today in his return ... The Hoyas end the season having gone a month without a win, and if you ask me, a team playing like that to end the season shouldn't be a six seed. I know the committee doesn't take recent performance into account -- or says it doesn't, anyway -- but maybe it should.

Washington 68, Georgia 65

The Bulldogs stuck around in this one due to their size. North Carolina, Washington's second-round opponent, isn't going to want to want to slow the pace down the way Georgia did, but they should consider going inside to Tyler Zeller a fair bit early ... Isaiah Thomas continues to impress and I'm really looking forward to watching him square off with Kendall Marshall in round 2. Marshall may have to deal with Washington's senior defensive stopper, Venoy Overton, too.

Syracuse 77, Indiana State 60

This game was 25-11, 'cuse, before I got to it, and the Orange had a 12-point lead once the closer games finished and I could get back to it. In the interim, however, my understanding is that the Sycamores closed the gap to six or so, and that's certainly impressive. One thing I was able to notice was how well ISU attacked Syracuse's 2-3 zone; by dribbling into the gaps and either scoring or kicking it out for threes. For Marquette's sake, I hope they were paying attention: The Golden Eagles have the athletes to find those seams, and all four of Jimmy Butler, Dwight Buycks, Jae Crowder, and Darius Johnson-Odom have the ability to score in the lane in the 12-foot range, as well as hit the triple from behind the arc ... Syracuse visited Marquette at the end of January and came away with a loss, their fourth straight at the time after ascending to the No. 3 ranking. Marquette hit better than 52 percent of its shots in that one, including 6-for-13 from three point land ... Rick Jackson and Kris Joseph combined for 30 points on 13-of-22 from the field in that loss, and given the difficulty that Marquette had with Xavier's Kenny Frease and Andrew Taylor inside (the only two Muskies who could get anything going on Friday), I expect the game plan, at least, to feature a heavy dose of those guys.

Day One recap

So, one side effect of all the games being broadcast separately is that I can watch at least a little bit of every one. In that spirit, here are at least a few words on every game:

West Virginia 84, Clemson 76.

Very surprising that an offensively-challenged Mountaineer team could put up this many points on a good defensive team in Clemson, and you have to wonder if the Tigers wore down after playing Tuesday and being given the early slot today ... I thought West Virginia's run to end the first half was key; not only did it tie the game, it kind of deflated Clemson, which had worked very hard and played very well for that lead ... Dalton Pepper salted the game away (see what I did there?) for WVU with consecutive steals and layups after Clemson had cut it to five late (apparently he got a third straight steal after I switched over to ODU-Butler) ... The officials bailed out Joe Mazzulla with that foul call with WVU up three on the possession before Pepper's first big steal. Mazzulla had been out of control all game, picked up his dribble in the trap, then threw himself on the floor hoping to buy a foul ... I thought Clemson went to its full court pressure a bit too early; it didn't work and only served to further tire them out.

Butler 60, Old Dominion 58.

Last year's runners-up advance on a Matt Howard layup at the buzzer after a big scramble. Hard to fault the ODU kids for not keeping a body on Howard instead of going after the loose ball ... I didn't watch too much of this game, but it seemed like every time I flipped over to it, the Monarchs were missing another layup ... I thought Brad Stevens made a mistake by rolling the dice with both of his foul-prone big men, Matt Howard and Andrew Smith, carrying three fouls early in the second half. Smith soon picked up his fourth, and has to wonder if his absence plus the fact that Howard needed to be a little careful contributed to some of ODU's good looks (which, fortunately for Butler, they missed). One thing I really respect about Stevens and Butler is how they just play their game and have faith in their system, but not reacting to the situation by staggering those guys through the middle part of the second half really could have come back to bite them ... Jay Bilas tweet near the end of this game: "ODU and Butler should be playing majors. The Committee couldn't pit them against Tennessee and Michigan? Better for the game, and easy." He's right. That particular decision also would have kept Old Dominion out of Washington, DC. I always think it's strange how we make a big deal about where, geographically, the top teams play, but pay so little attention to where the other teams go. Why should Ohio State, the tournament's top overall seed, have to play a potential second-round game against ODU in the Monarchs' backyard?

Morehead State 62, Louisville 61

Cutting right to the chase here: I loved the decision for Morehead State to go for the three, and the win, on its final possession. Always my preference when you are the underdog. Preston Knowles being out with an ankle injury made it a closer decision, but I love the idea, and you can't argue with the ultimate result. However, I hate the particular play call. When you hold the ball like that, you're signaling to the other team that you're going to take a three-pointer; it makes no sense to run the clock down just to go for the tie. Fortunately for Morehead State, the Louisville kids didn't seem to recognize it, and Demonte Harper drained the big three ... Clean block by Kenneth Faried to seal the game on Louisville's desperation possession ... Knowles' injury was the turning point of the game, it seems, but I thought at the time he made it that Terrance Hill's three at the end of the first half to knot it at 33 was huge. Morehead State had been leading most of the way before a late Louisville run. I don't really believe in "momentum heading into the locker room," but there's a big difference going in down three and going in tied, especially when you're the underdog ... Greg Anthony tweeted during the game that Faried is a pro, which I think is uncontroversial at this point. He compared him to the Utah Jazz's Paul Millsap, who led the country in rebounding all three years he played at Louisiana Tech. Faried just passed Tim Duncan as Division I's all-time leading rebounder, so that's where the comparison originates. Faried grabbed 17 rebounds against Louisville, but he also shot 4-for-17 from the floor, and I'm guessing those two stats are what Draft Express' Jonathan Givony had in mind when he mentioned that this game showcased Faried's strengths and weaknesses. For what it's worth, I was high on Millsap coming out of college, even though he seemed to have an unpolished offensive game, and he's turned out very well. Lots of similarities here with Faried.

Temple 66, Penn State 64

I didn't really have a chance to watch any of this game, unexpectedly, because of the Morehead State shocker. I did catch the end, however, and it's great to see kids making big shots like the ones Talor Battle and Juan Fernandez made. I would have liked to have seen Fernandez create a better look than the one he got, but he did a nice job not panicking, and used his size well on that game-winning leaner.

Kentucky 59, Princeton 57

Give credit to Brandon Knight for a very tough layup that won this one for Kentucky. I love the confidence that coach John Calipari had in Knight, and the confidence Knight had in himself, to take that shot after missing his first seven. In that situation, you give the ball to your best playmaker, no matter how cold he's been ... I thought Josh Harrellson was the player of the game for Kentucky. A lot was made of the advantage that the Wildcats had over the Tigers in terms of athletic ability, but in the end it was their height advantage that did the trick ... Relatedly, it's worth pointing out that Princeton made a ton of plays one-on-one. Everyone always assumes that Princeton succeeds with gimmicky backcuts and three-point shooting, and while they did some of that -- and the Princeton offense, the proper noun, is a thing of beauty --they really went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. Those kids wearing the black uniforms are just good basketball players. Period.

Pittsburgh 74, UNC-Asheville 51

Only watched a few minutes of this one at the end when all the other venues were dormant. Pitt took care of business in the second half, apparently, after leading by only five at the break.

San Diego State 68, Northern Colorado 50

Barely caught any of this one, either. However, the fact that the Aztecs missed 11 straight shots at one point is why I can't advance them past Duke and into the Final Four. It happened in the regular season against BYU, too. The Blue Devils are prone to their own offensive slumps, but they're also a better team than SDSU and I just don't think the Aztecs are good enough consistently on O to prevail.

Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 66

Richmond was a popular upset pick, and while I didn't like Vandy very much, I picked them in part due to the "fade the public" strategy that burned me last year with Cornell. The other part of that decision was that I've consistently been underwhelmed by Richmond, and Kevin Anderson in particular. Heresy, you say, given Anderson's performance today? I'm not so sure. Yes, he had 25 points. Yes, he hit the game-icing shot, a very tough pull-up fade away that, admittedly, I love to take when I play. But he took 26 shots on the night overall, a very big number for a college player, especially so given how the Spiders slow the pace down. Anderson dribbles the air out of the ball, and it drives me crazy. He'll probably be able to get away with in the second round vs. Morehead State, too.

Florida 79, UC-Santa Barbara 51

The only snippets of this one I caught were at the beginning, when the other games hadn't started yet, and midway through the second half, when the other three games were at halftime. Looks like the Gators outclassed the Gauchos from start to finish ... I still like Michigan State to take out Florida on Saturday, but I do like Chandler Parsons. I'm making him an honorary Calathes ... Early upset pick for 2012 tournament: Long Beach State, who UCSB upset in the Big West final. Put it in a a drawer: The Beach will win a first-round game next year.

Connecticut 81, Bucknell 52

This game was over very early and with Wofford hanging close to BYU for most of the game, I didn't really watch any of it, other than the opening seconds. It looks like the jinx that often comes with conference tournament success didn't catch up with the Huskies, even as it hit Louisville, UConn's foe in the Big East title game. I would have liked to see a better performance from the Patriot League representative, and I'm sad that American University couldn't have been there after an outstanding regular season, but it looks like Connecticut is just hitting on all cylinders still.

BYU 74, Wofford 66

Nice win for the Cougars in a game in which they battled foul trouble and Jimmer Fredette didn't shoot all that well. Wofford is a good team that made the tournament last year and has some experience playing against players with unlimited range, having faced off against Andrew Goudelock and College of Charleston three times in Southern Conference play. Despite his 32 points, I thought Wofford did a nice job making life difficult for Fredette, who himself didn't make things any easier by forcing the action a great deal of the time ... If I were a BYU fan, the thing that would concern me about this game is that Wofford's Noah Dahlman shot 15 free throws (though two were technical free throws). Dahlman is a good player, but he's only 6'6". What are the Cougarrs going to do with Gonzaga's Robert Sacre? And the way the Zags shot the ball against St. John's, the zone that BYU relied on isn't going to be that effective, either.

Wisconsin 72, Belmont 58

I guess we all panicked a little bit after the Buckeyes' 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. Major-conference teams that don't turn it over and make their free throws aren't good upset candidates, now matter how futile their offense can look at times ... The teams picked up the offensive pace after the first ten minutes or so, but before then, with the score inching upwards at a snail's pace, the following three messages showed up in my Twitter feed, one after the other:

• Jay Bilas: "Is the shot clock turned off in the Wisconsin-Belmont game? Or are they getting a run in, playing by ones?
• Lost Lettermen: "If the NCAA had a sense of humor, they [would] give Wisco-Belmont a basketball with laces for the second half."
• Greg Anthony: "Wisconsin basketball might not be able to outscore Wisconsin football and they run the same offense."

UCLA 78, Michigan State 76

That the Spartans made a valiant run at the end is no surprise, and is a testament to Tom Izzo's ability as a coach and motivator. What did surprise me -- and it probably shouldn't have, given the way their season has gone -- is how little passion MSU played with on the way to a 24-point deficit ... As brilliant as Izzo's endgame was, and as well as the Spartans executed it, the Bruins were complicit, missing an incredible number of free throws down the stretch. This may be the rare instance where the win actually hurts the team's confidence. All anyone is going to want tto talk to UCLA about for the next day is how they almost choked a 24-point lead away. It's up to Ben Howland to make sure his team focuses on the first 32 minutes while retaining the lessons of the final eight. (And speaking of a different final eight, the Spartans are my first Elite Eight team out of the tourney; I've lost three-fourths of my Sweet 16 in Pittsburgh's region.)

Cincinnati 78, Missouri 63

Give the Bearcats credit: After a rocky start and with the exception of a stretch in the middle of the second half, they did a nice job of weathering Missouri's frantic pace. The Tigers are a maddening team, because they go through stretches where they look unbeatable, creating steals, making jumpers, scoring in bunches. But they went cold for a long stretch at the end of the first half and to start the second half, and the result was a hole that was too deep to dig out of ... I also underestimated the effect Cincy's rebounding edge would have on this game ... UC's win set up a second-round game with UConn, a rematch of the February 27 game in the Queen City that the visiting Huskies won by eight.

Gonzaga 86, St. John's 71

Tough loss for Steve Lavin and the Red Storm. Both teams came out on fire -- the big difference here was that while SJU cooled off, Gonzaga didn't. It's hard to say how much the Johnnies missed D.J. Kennedy, who ripped up his knee in the Big East tournament, but the Bulldogs had a such a big advantage inside that the presence of the 6'5" Kennedy probably wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome of the game.

Kansas State 73, Utah State 68

This game was called extremely tightly in the first half, from what I saw, and as a result, I though Utah State -- the less-talented offensive team -- struggled to find a rhythm. The Aggies put forth a valiant effort, but I thought the Wildcats, Jacob Pullen in particular, closed very well offensively. Defensively, they committed a couple of really stupid fouls that you know had Frank Martin seething, but this was a good performance.

Recaps from the last few games of the night are scarcer not because I lost steam, but because they were all kind of dull and then all got slightly interesting at around the same time, so I was bouncing from game-to-game a lot and not getting much feel. I'm not sure how much I like being able to switch like this; I might enjoy the games more if I stuck with one -- as long as it was decent -- from buzzer-to-buzzer. Might try that tomorrow; we'll see.

Tweeting During the Tourney

Follow me and say hi: @HSSlamPhD.

Breaking Down the East and Southwest

(I broke down the other two regions yesterday.)

EAST

First round upsets: With an unprecedented 11 teams in the tournament field, the Big East is going to be both over-seeded in certain instances and under-seeded in certain instances. Both conditions are present in this region. On the one hand, there's fifth-seeded West Virginia, a pretty uninspiring team that struggles to put the ball in the basket. On the other, there's 11th-seeded Marquette, an experienced squad that has played (and, admittedly, lost) more close games than any other school in the country over the last couple of seasons.

I like Clemson to knock off the Mountaineers. I knew they were good defensively, which they showed in their play-in win over UAB on Tuesday. What I didn't know was how good they were offensively, which they demonstrated a little bit against the Blazers but more potently in their ACC Tournament loss to Carolina. Moreover, I loved the way they bounced back from giving that game away to the Tar Heels by beating UAB handily. At the risk of putting too much stock in one game against a team that most didn't feel deserved an NCAA bid, Clemson appears to be a team that's still growing.

I also like the Golden Eagles to upset Xavier. There's a philosophy in horse racing that says that you shouldn't bet on a horse that has too many second-place finishes; that's a horse that doesn't know how to win a race. Well, despite all their close losses this year and last, I refuse to buy that Marquette is such a horse. And the Musketeers haven't done much outside of their regular-season run in the A-10.

Bracket Buster: North Carolina. I fully recognize that UNC is a different team with freshman Kendall Marshall starting at point guard. In fact, I was one of the ones wondering when coach Roy Williams would insert Marshall in the starting lineup in place of the underachieving (and now departed) Larry Drew. So I know that the Tar Heels of late are the real Tar Heels.

With that said, I have them going out in the second round to Washington. In addition to my usual complaints that Williams-coached teams don't defend, I really didn't like the way they came out in any of their three conference tournament games. Sure, they managed to win two of those, but you're playing with fire when you continually spot good teams a big lead like that. As much as I like Marshall, he looked afraid of the moment in the ACC title game against Duke, while fellow freshman Harrison Barnes looked like he was trying to do too much. I also really like Washington, who pulled this exact same routine last year: High expectations to start the year, a somewhat disappointing regular season, and then a Pac 10 tournament championship. Last year, the Huskies made it to the Sweet 16; I have them going an extra round this year.

On the other hand, Carolina, if they put it together, can blow through their half of the bracket into the Elite 8. Especially if the Heels can get comfortable in their first matchup with Long Island, they could do some damage.

Final Four pick: Ohio State. I picked them as my champion back in November, and I'm not changing now. They've got everything you could ask for in a college basketball team: veteran leadership (David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford), wing scoring (Lighty and Buford), outside shooting (Diebler, Lighty, Buford, and Aaron Craft), post offense (Jared Sullinger), rebounding (Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale), a shotblocker (Lauderdale), a steady hand at point guard (Craft), and a strong overall defense. The one thing missing, perhaps, is the bench, but they defend well without fouling, so foul trouble isn't as big of a problem as it would be with other teams that aren't that deep. I think their road to the Final Four is tougher than for many other top seeds, but not tough enough to get me to change my pick.

SOUTHWEST

First round upsets: I think Florida State and Texas A&M is the toughest first round matchup to pick, and I'm taking the Seminoles mainly because of my minor obsession with Chris Singleton. He should be back from the broken foot that kept him out at the end of the year, and he's the best, most versatile defensive player I've ever seen at the college level.

Another team that was missing its star is Georgetown, and the Hoyas should have Chris Wright back for their first-round matchup with VCU. Frankly, I think Georgetown fits into the over-seeded Big East team category that includes West Virginia and Cincinnati, but I would feel a lot better picking USC in this matchup. USC lost to VCU, though, and now, if I go with my gut, I'm going with a team that lost six games in league play. I'm sticking with it, though. Wright's return will help Georgetown handle VCU's pressure defense, but he's likely to be rusty and wear down a bit. And we've seen what happens to the Hoyas without him in the lineup.

Bracket buster: Louisville. Up until, like, a minute ago, I had Louisville going to the Final Four. And I think there's a chance they do it. But I don't think they have the bodies inside to deal with the Morris twins, not with Rakeem Buckles out. I love the Cardinals, though, especially Peyton Siva.

Final Four pick: Kansas. I hate that I'm going straight chalk this year, but I take some solace in the fact that these four teams have been, hands down, the best four teams all season long. My "sense" of Kansas is that they've had a turbulent, uneven year, and they have -- off the court. On the court, they've fought through injuries and suspensions and managed to lose only two games. They're deep, they can hit the three but don't rely on it too much, they've got the Morris kids inside, and they have the motivation to get back after last year's shocking second-round exit. I'm gonna kick myself if they don't make it, but as of now, they're in my title game (losing to Ohio State).

Breaking Down the West and Southeast

As you know, the final field of 64 isn't set yet. (The exciting finish between UNC-Asheville and Arkansas-Little Rock aside, this "First Four" thing basically sucks. As I and many others expected, adding four at-large teams hasn't solved any of the bubble problems; instead of more deserving teams getting in, there are now simply more undeserving teams whose bids the committee has to justify to similarly unqualified schools that were left out. As you expand the number of teams that participate, it becomes harder to differentiate between the ones you let in and the ones you leave out. Plus, the product gets diluted. Those who think a playoff system for college football is the answer, take note.)

However, two regions -- the West and the Southeast -- are set. So a few thoughts on those regions first, and I'll tackle the other two regions tomorrow, after Texas-San Antonio vs. Alabama State and VCU vs. USC (Fight On!).

WEST

First-round upsets: There are two big ones that I like. The first is Oakland over Texas, for three reasons: Oakland is tourney-tested and played a bunch of power conference teams tough this season, even winning at Tennessee; Texas stumbled a bit down the stretch in the regular season; and Rick Barnes teams that finish that way tend to underachieve in the postseason, too. The second is Missouri over Cincinnati, because I think the Bearcats' biggest advantage is Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas in the post, and I don't think they have the poise in the backcourt to not get sped up by the Tigers' frenetic pace. Mizzou always burns me in the tournament, though, so pick accordingly.

Bracket buster: Texas. As noted, I have them losing to Oakland in the first round, but they have the talent to bust my bracket by going to the Final Four. It's certainly perilous to ignore a team that became the first to win a game at Kansas' Phog Allen Fieldhouse in 69 tries. Texas has the athletes to give Duke trouble, a bona fide wing scorer in Jordan Hamilton, and Tristan Thompson, perhaps the best freshman big man I saw this year that isn't named Jared Sullinger.

Final Four pick: Duke. For what it's worth, I'm not that high on the defending national champs. They rely too heavily on the three-point shot, and while they got away with it last year, I think you can credit a lot of that to a very favorable draw. So I was looking for a team to beat them early, but, alas, it seems like the draws opens up well for them again. Arizona doesn't defend well enough, Connecticut can't ride Kemba Walker forever, and I have a hard time putting a relatively untested San Diego State team in the Final Four. So Duke it is, almost by default.

SOUTHEAST

First round upsets: One thing I find very interesting about this region is the inclusion of Kansas State and Michigan State. Both started the season as trendy Final Four picks, ranked in the top five, I believe. Both underperformed, to say the least. Kansas State was actually out of the tournament after starting 1-4 in the Big 12, but played its way back in with a strong finish to the season. Michigan State, on the other hand, was mediocre all season, stumbling to 9-9 in the Big 10 and probably making the field on the strength of their non-conference schedule. The conference tournament was typical of the Spartans' season: Eking out a win over Iowa, then blowing out Purdue before losing to Penn State in the semis. Both teams are experienced, too. Why, then, am I picking the Wildcats to lose in the first round while I've got MSU beating Florida on its way to the Elite 8? Call it a hunch, I guess. Plus I think Utah State is a real formidable opponent. I also like Belmont to beat Wisconsin.

Bracket buster: A number of teams could really mess up my picks. I have St. John's in the Sweet 16, but without D.J. Kennedy an experienced Gonzaga team might be too much to overcome. BYU is everyone's darling, but you don't win too many NCAA Tournament games with one player, particularly one whose ballhandling and passing is as suspect as Jimmer Fredette's. In the end, though, Florida is the team that has me most worried. They're the SEC regular season champions and all the contenders in their half of the bracket have big question mark. I don't like the Gators mainly due to the shot selection of their guards, which is something I think a disciplined Spartan team can exploit.

Final Four pick: Pittsburgh. Similar to Duke, I'm having a hard time figuring out which team will beat the Panthers, particularly since I have so many of the favorites in this region losing in the first couple of rounds. I'm not in love with Pitt, but they're battle-tested and the draw opens up nicely for them.

Thoughts on the Fab Five

Watched ESPN's "30 for 30" documentary on the Fab Five last night.

There's a ton of stuff to say about Fab Five, culturally and as it relates to basketball. I'll leave it to others more qualified to list them all (and many have). As to my own experience, the Fab Five came around at a time when my identity as a basketball player and a basketball fan was really taking shape, and they certainly influenced it. I wore black socks on the court (when I wore socks at all; a pony-tailed St. Peter's College player named Mike Frensley didn't wear them, and inspired me to follow suit when he wore a Nirvana t-shirt to a post-NCAA Tournament game press conference). I wore baggy shorts. My AAU team broke huddles by yelling "Nut check!" the way Mitch Albom, in his book Fab Five, told us that Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson did.

It doesn't sound like much, I know. But considering the college basketball landscape at the time, and the fact that I grew up in Vermont, where there was essentially no exposure to black culture, these things were a big deal. More than anything, the Fab Five taught me that you could play basketball -- play it well, play it right -- while expressing yourself.

As for the documentary itself, I thought it was pretty good. Jalen Rose produced it, and at times it came off as a little self-indulgent, but I thought it captured the era well. I recommend, too, listening to the first part of Bill Simmons' podcast with Rose, during which they discuss the documentary. They talk about a number of issues, including the conspicuous absence of Webber from the film (probably due to the whole Ed Martin/improper benefits/lying to a Grand Jury thing).

That incident, of course, led to the Fab Five being erased from Michigan's record books; the documentary opens and closes with shots of the university's archives, where the banners commemorating the team's Final Four appearances are stored, rather than hanging from the rafters of Crisler Arena. And I think that this is what I like most about the Fab Five, and about ball in general: No matter what else happens, what you do on the court lives forever. The Fab Five never won a national title. On paper, their era ceases to exist -- it's like it never happened. And yet their influence -- from baggy shorts on players to hip hop blaring in arenas to spirited debate about whether college athletes should be paid -- lives on, as it will forever.

Putting UConn's Run in Perspective

Many have said that Connecticut's run to the Big East title -- five wins in five nights in the nation's toughest conference -- was harder than winning the NCAA Tournament. As regards to timing, at least, that's definitely true -- whoever wins this thing will have their six (or seven) games spread over three weeks.

What about substantively? It's certainly possible that the road to Houston will be no tougher for the Huskies than the one that brought them the Big East trophy.

Throwing away DePaul -- the hapless Blue Demons are no match for even UConn's first round opponent, the Patriot League-champion Bucknell Bison -- UConn beat Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville at Madison Square Garden.

The Hoyas are a six seed in the Big Dance; the Panthers are a one; the Orange, a three; the Cardinals, a four. UConn's a three-seed, so if the tournament goes according to chalk (it never does, but for purposes of this little exercise, let's assume it does), UConn would need to beat a six (Cincinnati, who they beat on the road at the end of February), a two (San Diego State) and two ones (Duke and Ohio State) in addition to Bucknell to reach the national championship game. Throw in an upset here or there, though, and it could be really comparable.

Of course, UConn is by no means a lock to win even their first round game. They are the classic example of a team that over-achieves late in the season, is everyone's "hot" pick to go to the Final Four, then bows out in an early round (Georgetown last year is actually a pretty good example of this).

Political blogger Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com recently wrote a post about similar teams. He used UConn's Big East foe Notre Dame as an example of a team that received no attention at the beginning of the year but that has played its way to a very good seed in this year's tournament. He could easily have used Connecticut as his example; like Notre Dame, the Huskies were unranked to start the season (though they did receive eight votes in the preseason poll). Silver looked at 41 teams who had started the season unranked and entered the tournament ranked in the AP top ten, and found that as a group, they under-performed their expectations by a fairly significant margin (the post is interesting; I suggest you check it out for details).

As of this writing, I don't know where UConn will end up in Monday's writer's poll. They're an interesting case, however. They didn't work their way up in the rankings throughout the season like most teams do. Rather, they leapt into the top ten in November after winning the Maui Invitational in November as an unranked team. They got as high as No. 4 before losing to Pittsburgh in late December, and spent most of the rest of the season ranked somewhere in the teens. Two losses to end the regular season put UConn on the verge of slipping out of the top 25 entirely; they started the Big East Tournament ranked 21st.

It's hard to say how their somewhat unique path will affect anything discussed above. On the one hand, they seem to exhibit all the symptoms of one of these early-round upset victims. On the other, they have now twice shown the ability to beat good teams in a tournament situation -- they beat Wichita State, then-No. 2 Michigan State, and then-No. 8 Kentucky in Maui. The X-factor may be Kemba Walker; he's capable of carrying the Huskies by himself against almost anyone. I personally think the draw opens up pretty well for them, but I'm wary of picking them given the history of these kinds of teams.