BYU 71, San Diego State 58

So much for writing a blog post about every game I watch this year. I don't know if it's laziness or what, but that New Year's Resolution went out the window pretty fast. I will say, however, that with some notable exceptions, I've felt that the majority of the college hoops games I have watched this season have been pretty poorly played. There seems to be an awful lot of bad offense out there, and perhaps that's why my enthusiasm to write has waned a bit. (Okay, a lot.)

Anyway, I did catch last night's Mountain West showdown of these two top-ten teams, albeit at a bar, which is never the most convenient venue for close examination or thoughtful reflection. But seeing as the nation seems to be in something of a Jimmer Fredette frenzy, I figured I'd write a few words on the guy who is now leading the country in scoring by a full three points.

ESPN's Andy Katz has this to say about Fredette, and it's noteworthy that Katz's first order of business is to distinguish Fredette from Stephen Curry, because the Davidson phenom turned legit NBA weapon for the Golden State Warriors is the guy everyone wants to compare Fredette too. There are some similarities -- shooting range is one, being the focal point of the offense is another -- but there are also some differences. I've only seen Fredette play on occasion, and so I don't want to speak too generally about his game. I do, however, want to focus on one difference between him and Curry and what that means for his NBA prospects.

Curry is as clever a scorer as they come. He's got unlimited range, sure, and he's reasonably quick, but he relied so much on deception, on little head and shoulder fakes to create space, on unconventional tempo and rhythm to get his defender off-balance. I wasn't sold on Curry in the NBA until I saw him at Summer League in Vegas after he got drafted. He had a terrible week shooting the ball, but he got the same sort of shots he had gotten in college. I had been worried that the individual defenders at the professional level would be too good for him, but he was able to get his shot without a problem and I knew it was a matter of time before the ball started going down. I certainly didn't expect this kind of success this quickly (and he's certainly in a system that uses his talents well), but I did think he'd do well after that.

Fredette is something of a different story. He's got the same unbelievable range that Curry does, but against the Aztecs anyway, he got a lot of his points on drives to the bucket, using traditional moves: crossovers, a straightforward first step, etc.

There are a couple of points I want to make here. To start, note that there are obviously concerns about Fredette's athleticism at the next level. If there weren't, then a scorer as prolific as he is would be a shoo-in lottery pick, not a fringe first-rounder. But as there were with Curry, there are concerns that Fredette is not big enough, strong enough, or quick enough to have success against defenders at the next level.

Next, consider that, like Curry, Fredette has the green light to do basically whatever he wants, including take jumpers from outrageously far away. This green light -- and his ability to make use of it -- makes him tougher to guard, as defenders need to take his shot fakes from 30 feet seriously. They must play up on him at all times, which makes it easier for him to get to the basket.

Golden State aside, however, there aren't really any other NBA systems where Fredette would have the kind of offensive freedom that he currently enjoys (and that Curry has with the Warriors). This is significant because if you add a higher-caliber athlete on defense with a less-dynamic game on Fredette's part, the concerns about his ability to drive past people using the bounce seem more valid.

Oddly, then, it's precisely because Fredette displays a more traditional arsenal that I'm less bullish on his NBA prospects than many others are. The guy can definitely play, and perhaps his penetration game is legitimate. But because I haven't seen the same type of stuff I saw from Curry -- the off-balance jumpers and off-the-dribble 27-footers over two defenders -- I'm not yet convinced of his value beyond that of a superb long-range shooter (for which there is certainly room on an NBA roster).

I actually think that Charleston's Andrew Goudelock is a better comparison to Curry, but that's an entry for another time.

Kyle McAlarney

Sitting here after watching North Carolina pick apart a very good Notre Dame team 102-87 in the championship game of the Maui Invitational, I'm very tempted to write a post predicting that the Heels will go undefeated on their way to the national championship. I'm going to refrain from doing so, because I haven't seen Connecticut, Louisville, or Pittsburgh yet -- nor have I seen Michigan State, the one remaining non-conference opponent on Carolina's schedule with a realistic shot at beating them. Honestly, though, I can't see these guys losing this year.

Instead, I want to focus for a few moments on Notre Dame shooting guard Kyle McAlarney. The senior had himself one hell of a Maui, hitting 21 of 38 three-point attempts during the three games, scoring 39 points on 10-of-18 from deep in Wednesday night's finale. McAlarney has almost unlimited range and an incredibly quick release.

These things typically bode well for a player's NBA prospects. I'm not so sure with McAlarney. At the very least, if I were an NBA scout, I'd want to see him hit more threes coming off of screens.

Pure shooters like McAlarney make their living in the NBA by running off of screens on the baseline, curling out to the wing and draining threes. (Think former Indiana Pacer Reggie Miller, or perhaps Detroit's Rip Hamilton, though Hamilton usually steps inside the three-point-line). Notre Dame runs plenty of these sets for McAlarney, and he's very good at using the screens to get open, as well as reading the defender and deciding whether to curl towards the ball or fade to the corner.

The problem is that he doesn't necessarily shoot that well coming off of these screens. At least he didn't in Maui. I noticed it after he clanged a few in Monday night's game against Indiana, and tracked it closely in Tuesday's win over Texas and tonight against Carolina. Of the 15 trifectas he hit in those latter two games, only one came off a screen. And even that one wasn't the play I just described -- with the ball on the left wing, he passed to a teammate at the top of the key, then ran around behind the teammate for a quick handoff and shot.

Hitting a shot like this essentially requires that the shooter square his body as part of his shooting motion, and I didn't see McAlarney do it once successfully. Any time he hit a three coming off of a screen, he had time -- he doesn't need much -- to square himself before he caught the pass. If you watch guys like Texas' A.J. Abrams or Davidson's Stephen Curry, however, you'll see something different -- it looks like they are squaring their bodies to the rim while in the air.

I certainly don't mean to knock him, but this is a skill he's going to need.