Elite 8 Preview

One good game and three blowouts tonight and the final eight are set. No surprises Friday night -- Syracuse would have lost even without Jonny Flynn's injury; he was the only Orange to show up and was the team's best player even after bruising his back when his attempt to draw a charge from Blake Griffin late in the first half had with a predictable result. Elsewhere, Arizona and Gonzaga looked overmatched against Louisville and North Carolina, respectively, and Kalin Lucas outplayed Sherron Collins in the final moments to lead Michigan State over Kansas in a game where neither team looked like it belonged in this late stage of the tournament.

We're not at all far from seeing four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for the second straight year...and the second year ever since the field expanded to 64 teams. This gives me an opportunity, before a quick breakdown of the upcoming games, to weakly segue to a point I wanted to make about Arizona before we close out their 2008-09 season but couldn't cram into the above paragraph.

I am certain, if all four No. 1s do advance, that someone will mention what a great job the selection committee did. (That's the segue.) That will be in contrast to the popular reaction when Arizona's name was called on Selection Sunday, which was that the Wildcats didn't deserve a bid. Even when Arizona was breezing by Utah and Cleveland State in the first two rounds, their critics didn't let up. The argument goes that the team's performance in the Tournament doesn't prove anything, and that the merit of their bid should be evaluated only on the basis of their regular season record.

While I agree that being results-oriented isn't a proper way to determine whether a team deserves to be there -- in the same way that the winner of the tournament isn't necessarily the best team in the country -- I disagree that Arizona didn't prove anything last weekend. The Wildcats were one of a good number of teams whose resumes were decidedly mediocre. The way the tournament is set up, some of these "bubble" teams will get in, some won't, and it's pretty much anybody's guess which teams are the best of that group. Arizona's strong performance in this tournament -- the blowout loss to Louisville aside -- proves something about them as a team. It's not enough to definitively say that they are better than San Diego State or Providence or Creighton -- they had an opportunity those teams did not -- but it is enough to say that they weren't undeserving of a bid.

Anyway, on to the previews:

Game most ripe for an upset: East, #1 Pittsburgh vs. #3 Villanova. None of the eight remaining teams can boast the wins the Wildcats have in this tournament: 89-69 over UCLA and 77-54 over Duke. Those squads aren't vintage versions of their programs, but it's still impressive, more impressive than Connecticut's 40-plus-point margin of victory in the first two rounds, more impressive even than Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of Arizona and Carolina's 98-77 stifling of Gonzaga. It's also a long way from last Thursday afternoon, just a few moments after halftime, when American University had scored the first two buckets of the second twenty minutes to take a 14-point lead. Since then, Villanova's been about as good as they can be.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, hasn't found its rhythm yet. They were the top seed to struggle in their first-round game (the other was Louisville), didn't pull away from Oklahoma State until very late, and then went down to the wire with Xavier. They are not long for this tournament if they don't find their way, fast.

Moreover, Villanova is familiar with Pittsburgh and isn't scared of them. In fact, they beat the Panthers in their only meeting in Big East play, a 67-57 victory in Philadelphia in late January. A repeat is very possible.

Game least ripe for an upset: Midwest, #1 Louisville vs. #2 Michigan State. In the interest of full disclosure, I should note now that my bracket has the Spartans winning this game, the product of me not wanting to pick all four top seeds and thinking that the Cardinals were the most overrated of the No. 1s. All of this ignored the fact that I've been saying all year that the Big Ten is wildly overrated itself, an opinion supported in the first two rounds, where five of the seven teams in the conference lost.

I still think MSU can beat Louisville, but not if either team plays the way the way they did Friday night. Louisville is too deep and talented to be beaten by these Spartans at their best, and it's going to take an offensive performance several notches above what MSU has shown thus far to beat the 'ville on even an off-night.

Game that should be most entertaining: South, #1 North Carolina v. #2 Oklahoma. As CBS' Jim Nantz pointed out incessantly on Friday night's broadcast, this game pits last year's consensus player of the year, Tyler Hansbrough, against this year's consensus player of the year, Blake Griffin. It should also show off a heck of a lot of offensive fireworks, as both teams are explosive on that end. The Sooners probably aren't as explosive as they appeared to be against Syracuse, but Carolina isn't known for its defense, either.

On the other end, I don't think there's a team in America that can stop Carolina when the Heels are hitting on all cylinders, and with point guard Ty Lawson playing as if he was healthy (he's not), the Heels are close to hitting on all cylinders.

Game for which I have no superlative: West, #1 Connecticut vs. #3 Missouri. Mizzou is one of two number-three seeds remaining (Villanova's the other), and incredibly, that makes them a Cinderella in the remaining field. The Tigers put a hurting on Memphis in the Sweet Sixteen, but Connecticut is everything Memphis isn't: Big, poised, fundamentally solid. Memphis was a good matchup for Missouri; Connecticut isn't. I still think the Huskies are going to meet their match in this tournament, but it won't be Saturday.

Sweet 16 Breakdown: Midwest and South

Pitt and Xavier played more defense than I thought, and Missouri outgunned Memphis, but I was right on elsewhere: Duke lost to Villanova in large part because Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer combined to go 4-for-32 from the field, and Connecticut was too strong for Purdue. Let's look at tonight's games:

MIDWEST
#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona. As a commenter to yesterday's post mentioned, I'm something of a sucker for Arizona when it comes to the tournament. Given that I'm not all that high on Louisville -- I watch them and I just can't figure out how they are good as they are -- the temptation is there to pull the trigger on a Wildcat upset.

I don't think it's going to happen, though. The 'ville is a bad matchup for the 'cats. As well as Nic Wise has played this year -- I distinctly remember asking aloud at some point this year, "When did Nic Wise get good at basketball?" -- he's still prone to getting a little out of control, deadly against a team that uses full-court pressure the way the Cardinals do. Arizona doesn't have another really solid ballhandler in the backcourt, and they might do well to have Chase Budinger help bring it up.

While it's not all that rare that you see players on opposing teams who will end up in the NBA, it is a little more rare when those players go head to head. Watching Budinger go against Terrence Williams should be a lot of fun, and Williams will want to avoid getting into a scoring contest with Budinger, which given his unselfish nature, shouldn't be hard to do. Potential lottery picks Jordan Hill and Earl Clark will battle it out down low, too. Give the advantage on the inside to Louisville -- Hill also has to deal with Samardo Samuels.

It could happen, but it would take a near-perfect game from the Wildcats.

#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas. A couple of big-name programs who quietly had very strong years, and yet neither of these teams really strikes you as a scary one. (I'm pretty unimpressed with the whole South region.) The point guard matchup should be a good one, with Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas going up against Sherron Collins. Lucas is a blaze with the ball, while Collins, though plenty quick, is a bit more powerful.

I honestly don't have much to say here -- let's just pick the Spartans and move on.

SOUTH
#1 North Carolina v. #4 Gonzaga. The Tar Heels are beatable, but I think it's going to take a team that is a little bit better defensive than the Bulldogs to do it. Carolina's point guard, Ty Lawson, is going to play despite a toe injury, and though he was hampered somewhat in the first two games, he's still plenty quick enough with the ball to wreak all kinds of havoc on the opposition.

Inside, I think Tyler Hansbrough is probably too tough and physical for Josh Heytvelt, who seems less and less interested in mixing it up underneath as his career goes on. Similarly, as much as I like Austin Daye, I'm not sure he's big and strong enough to be effective for a full game against Carolina's depth.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse. The game of the night, if you ask me, and it's actually the early game in this region. Syracuse was one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament, and Oklahoma one of the coldest.

The Orange seem to be a popular pick, and I can see why. The two teams have such contrasting strengths that it's as easy to envision Jonny Flynn sojourning into the lane time and again, zipping passes to Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins for open threes as it is to picture Blake Griffin finding holes in the Syracuse 2-3 zone and going for one of the 20-point, 20-rebound games that seem to be his signature.

I think Syracuse can win this one, but Oklahoma is the favorite. The Orange defense has not been as good this season as we've come to expect from them, and it's not because they don't get out on three-point shooters. There are too many holes in the middle of that zone, and you can't give Blake Griffin the ball there. He's got the combination of size, strength, and ballhandling ability that he can do a ton of damage from the high post. Griffin does like to spin dribble a little too much, a move that can be dangerous in traffic, and so Syracuse forwards Rick Jackson, Paul Harris, and Kristof Ongenaet should be prepared to step in and take the charge. Getting Griffin in foul trouble would be huge.

Earlier in the season, I might have said that Arinze Onuaku was a decent matchup for Griffin, but knee injuries have really slowed him late in the season. He's just not the same player, and I don't think he can effectively play Griffin on either end. His reduced mobility, too, will be a problem on the glass. Rebounding out of the 2-3 is always tough, and that's exacerbated when you're up against an athletic, mobile guy like Blake Griffin. And Blake's older brother, Taylor, is no slouch either.

I'd like the 'cuse a bit more if Paul Harris were playing better, but he hasn't been himself for several games, dating back to the Big East tournament. Flynn is every bit the point guard that Lawson and Lucas are, and Rautins and Devendorf are marksmen. I'm just not sure Syracuse has enough to overcome the Sooners' obvious interior advantage.

Sweet 16 Breakdown: West and East

A lot of people lament the lack of upsets in an NCAA Tournament, and I agree that upsets are a big part of what makes it March Madness. But like last year, the first year in which all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, the chalkiness of this year's Big Dance means we're in store for some great basketball over the next few weeks. The barrier broken this year is that it's the first tournament in which the top three seeds in each of the four regions survived the first weekend. There's really only one somewhat surprising team in the Sweet Sixteen (though yours truly's bracket correctly had them advancing), and Arizona, being more or less a basketball power over the last couple of decades, is hardly the dictionary definition of Cinderella.

WEST
#1 Connecticut vs. #5 Purdue. I had Washington here in Purdue's spot and am a little surprised at how well the Boilers played at times during the tourney's first weekend. They were a highly ranked team early in the year, however, before injuries hit Robbie Hummel, so perhaps this is just them living up to expectations.

Either way, I don't think they have enough to beat Connecticut. I don't think the Huskies are unbeatable, but I think that the team to beat them needs to have a very strong post player. Hasheem Thabeet dominates most opponents defensively, but is a bit of a shrinking violet when faced with an opposing post player of above-average caliber. (Witness his pedestrian performances against Pittsburgh and Georgetown this year.) Purdue doesn't have that trait.

#2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri. I haven't seen much of Mizzou this year -- to the point where, late in the season, I looked at the rankings and exclaimed, incredulously, "Missouri is ranked tenth?!?!?" I know that they like to play up-and-down, they are deep, and they can score points in bunches. Memphis is like that, too, however, and in addition to being more talented and deep than Mizzou, they are also better defensively. That gives them the edge in what will be a frantic affair.

EAST
#1 Pittsburgh v. #4 Xavier. I picked North Carolina to win it all this year, mainly because I picked them at the beginning of the year and I see flaws with all the other contenders. Carolina has its flaws, too, including my pet flaw, the one that had me ranting all last year, which is that they don't play enough defense to win a championship. In large part due to my regret for selling myself out like that, then, I was remorseful for my selection and began convincing myself that Pittsburgh was the team to beat this year. Then they go out and barely squeak by East Tennessee State and a better-than-you-thought Oklahoma State team in the tournament's first weekend.

Ironically, I think Pitt's defense isn't quite good enough to make me confident that they'll win. It's ironic for two reasons: one, because that's why I'm not confident in my Carolina pick; and two, because defense was Pitt's calling card when they rose to national prominence under Ben Howland (now the head man at UCLA -- which had defensive problems of its own in getting pasted by Villanova in the second round). Because of that reputation, and because head coach Jamie Dixon was a Howland assistant, I think recent vintages of Panthers have gotten underserved reputations as good defensive teams. In fact, I think -- with no statistical backup -- that each successive edition of Pitt under Dixon has been a little bit worse defensively than the previous one.

It follows, then, that I don't think all that highly of this Pitt team defensively, and that is going to be a problem against any solid team, which means it's going to be a problem against any team left in this tournament. I don't know enough about Xavier to say if the Muskies are the team that will take the Panthers out, but I do know that I won't be terribly surprised if it happens.

#2 Duke v. #3 Villanova. This is the matchup I'm most looking forward to, a couple of guard-oriented teams with a star forward who can score inside (Kyle Singler for Duke, Dante Cunningham for Villanova). Both teams rely heavily on the three-point shot, and both have capable but limited role players up front (I give the advantage to Nova here). Duke is perhaps one player deeper in the backcourt and on the wing.

A lot of people would give the coaching advantage to Duke's legendary Coach K, but that does an injustice to Nova head man Jay Wright. Wright has had the same kind of team he has this year in previous years, and he has had great success in the past -- coming within a missed traveling call of upsetting eventual champion North Carolina in 2005, running into a juggernaut on a roll -- a juggernaut on a roll that was a particularly bad matchup for Nova's guard-oriented team -- in Florida the following year. Wright is every bit the coach Coach K is.

This game is really a tossup. If one team shoots well and the other doesn't, it'll prevail. (Duh.) If both teams shoot well, it could easily be "last possession wins." If neither team shoots well, it's a tossup. Both teams have guys who can get to the bucket and finish (Gerald Henderson and Nolan Smith for Duke; Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds for Villanova), which is imperative when the jumper isn't falling. It may come down to something like free throws, in which case I guess I like Duke by a thin margin, as I think Singler is better at drawing fouls than Cunningham and the officials always seem to send Duke to the line more than their opponents.

Saint Mary's 80, Davidson 68

I know, it's a little weird to be writing about the NIT when I haven't posted in forever and the NCAA Tournament is ongoing. I'm going to try to break down each of the Sweet 16 matchups a bit later in the week.

I'm making this post because I caught this game last night and during the broadcast, ESPN analyst Hubert Davis made a point to say at least once, and probably several times (I was fast-forwarding a lot) that these teams deserved to be in the field of 65.

Nope.

Every year, and this year more than most, I feel that the bubble teams, with rare exceptions, do not have much room to argue their exclusion. After having seen Davidson last night, the Wildcats have no argument whatsoever.

I'm a little more sympathetic to Saint Mary's, who really lost its chance to go dancing when it dropped three of four games in late January and early February, including a two-point loss to Sweet 16 conference foe Gonzaga. A big reason for those setbacks was the loss of their star, Patrick Mills, to a wrist injury. If Mills plays, they could easily have won all of those games -- and they won five straight without him, including a BracketBuster win over Utah State, another tournament team -- and in that case may have earned an at-large bid. Given that Mills was back and healthy by the time the Selection Committee was making its decisions, they had a case for a bid.

The Gaels aren't just all Mills, though. They have some very strong post players up front in Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson, and some guards who can knock down open jumpers.

Davidson, on the other hand, is all Stephen Curry. As much as I like to watch Curry -- and I do -- the rest of his teammates are terrible. I wasn't tracking it the whole game, but I paid pretty close attention for most of the second half, and the number of wide-open layups or short jumpers his teammates missed far outnumbered the number of shots they hit when faced with any defense whatsoever. These guys have perhaps the easiest job in college basketball -- play four-on-three while the other team focuses on Curry -- and none of them is worth a damn offensively.

I'm not sure what's more amazing: That Curry can lead the nation in scoring while being double-teamed all the time, or that his teammates can be this ineffective while playing a man up all the time.

Obviously, then, I disagree that Davidson deserved to be in the field of 65. I know what they did last year, and it was a blast to watch, but they just aren't a very good team.

Big East Day One

One day into the new, allegedly improved Big East tournament, and the expanded format is already hurting the conference.

Not because of Georgetown's somewhat surprising 64-59 loss to host St. John's; the Hoyas needed a deep run to make the NCAA tournament. (Alas, how far they have fallen since they beat Connecticut in Storrs to open conference play.) But Cincinnati's stunning 67-57 defeat at the hands of DePaul -- 0-18-in-the-Big-East-Depaul, hadn't-won-a-game-since-December-28-DePaul -- could very well cost the league at least one bid.

I think seven teams -- Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia -- could count on having locked up bids by virtue of their performance in the regular season. Two others -- Cincy and Providence -- had work to do. Both probably could not get in, as they were on course to play each other in Wednesday's second-round. But that matchup could have very well served as a play-in game for the field of 65.

The Bearcats almost certainly blew their chances by losing to the Blue Demons on Tuesday, and the Friars' prospects took a blow, too. Providence now cannot count on one Big East tournament win earning them a bid, since that win, if they get it, will come against lowly DePaul. They might very well have to beat Louisville, the regular season champs, in Thursday's quarterfinals, a tall order.

That's under the new five-day, 16-team system, which gives the top four teams a double bye into the quarterfinals. Under the old system, which also gave the top four teams byes into the quarters but left the bottom four teams out of the competition entirely, several of the Big East bubble teams would have had a better opportunity to make their case to the selection committee:

-Cincy would have matched up with West Virginia in the first round. A win over the Mountaineers might have been enough to push the Bearcats through.

-Providence would have faced Notre Dame, another team that has a shot at a berth. It's hard to describe this one as a play-in game since Notre Dame would not have locked up a bid with a win, but a PC victory would likely have guaranteed them entrance into the field of 65.

In a best-case scenario for the conference under the old system, then, Cincinnati would have beaten WVU and Notre Dame would have beaten Providence, and all three would have gotten in, securing an unprecedent ten bids for the league. (Sure, this assumes an awful lot -- specifically, that a 9-11 conference record would have been enough for Cincy and Notre Dame -- but if Arkansas can get in with a 7-9 regular season record over a ten-win Syracuse team a few years, back, I see no reason why a Big East team this year can't make the Dance with a conference record below .500.)

Now, the best-case scenario is eight teams, with Providence needing to sweat it out even if they beat DePaul on Wednesday.