Sunday Elite Eight Picks

Saturday was another good day of hoops in a tournament that keeps on giving. West Virginia took out Kentucky, the field's remaining favorite, in relatively convincing fashion (the 73-66 final score doesn't tell the whole story). And Butler pulled off its second straight come-from-behind victory over a major conference foe, dispatching Kansas State 63-56.

On to Sunday's picks.

#5 Michigan State vs. #6 Tennessee

Bracket: Kansas (over Georgetown) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: The Volunteers are in a regional final for the first time in the (men's) program history; Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is looking to get to his sixth Final Four at the school. None of that history really matters, however; all that matters are the kids who will decide the game tomorrow afternoon.

Michigan State really put the clamps on Northern Iowa on Friday night, but their performance on that end of the floor hid their weak offensive performance. They'll need better against Tennessee, a traditionally perimeter-oriented team that has two upperclassmen bigs, Wayne Chism and Brian Williams, playing extremely well. (Chism was especially impressive during the second half of the Vols' win over Ohio State on Friday.) You have to be good offensively and defensively to beat Tennessee, and without Kalin Lucas, I don't think the Spartans have quite enough.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor (South)

Bracket: Duke (over Villanova) | Pick: Duke

Comment: The Bears were mighty impressive in wiping Omar Samhan and St. Mary's from our collective memories on Friday, totally dominating from the opening tap. They are big where they are supposed to be big, quick where they're supposed to be quick, packed with skill, and able to put up points in a hurry. Their commitment to defense is, by my eye, a little suspect, but they're a good team.

Take a look, though, at who they beat to get here. St. Mary's last round. Old Dominion the round before. And Sam Houston State to open the tournament. Not a major conference team in the bunch. Now, Butler and Northern Iowa have showed that you don't have to be a BCS school to take down some of the games true powers, but even well-regarded ODU wasn't nearly as heralded as Butler (who was a five seed after all).

The point is that while Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are capable of getting hot enough to hit shots against anyone, they haven't had to do anything in this tournament against relatively elite athletes. (It's worth nothing that Baylor had trouble with both Old Dominion and Sam Houston State before the blowout of St. Mary's.) And for that reason, absent a real familiarity with Baylor, which I admittedly do not have, the pick has to be Duke. The Devils have already handled two top teams, California and Purdue. They have depth in the front court to deal with Ekpe Udoh and they have a backcourt to trade shots with Carter and Dunn. They've got a better commitment to defense, and a bit more of a track record. And after Sunday night, they'll have Coach K's eleventh Final Four.

(Plus, if Baylor wins, my bracket will have zero Final Four teams correct, the first time I can remember that happening. And I didn't even pick Kentucky and Syracuse!)

Saturday's Elite Eight Picks

Tonight was a solid, though largely unspectacular night in this NCAA Tournament, with no game able to serve as an encore to Thursday's incredible Kansas State-Xavier contest. The game that came closest was Tennessee's upset of Ohio State in the Midwest region. I panned the officials for their missed call when KSU was trying to foul at the end of its game Thursday night, so I should applaud them for a great no-call at the end of this one. After OSU superstar Evan Turner grabbed a rebound and dribbled out to the three-point line to take one last shot to try and tie the game, J.P. Prince went up and blocked the shot. Turner went down awkwardly, partly from the force of the block, partly in an attempt to draw a call. But the officials stood silent, even as the Buckeye bench erupted. Replays vindicated the stripes, however, showing a clean block, and also that, if anything, Turner initiated contact with Prince with his non-shooting arm. Great job on a tough call by the refs.

Elsewhere, St. Mary's proved to be no match for Baylor, and Duke wore Purdue down. And Michigan State shattered Northern Iowa's glass slipper in a vise grip, holding the Panthers to five second-half field goals, none over the final 10 minutes, in a 59-52 victory.

On to picks and analysis for Saturday's pair of Elite 8 games.

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas State (over Syracuse) | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Butler did on Thursday what I didn't think they could do; beat a skilled, much more athletic Syracuse team. The Orange did their part, coming out flat, forgetting about Wesley Johnson at the end of the game, taking ill-advised shots and making turnovers (Andy Rautins and especially Scoop Jardine being the biggest culprits). Because the story of the game was how poorly Syracuse played, I still don't have a very good feel for the Bulldogs. I know they have Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward, the last two Horizon players of the year. I know they have solid guards, like they always do. And I know they like to slow the pace way down.

I know a lot more about Kansas State. I know they've got two of the tournament's most spectacular, most prolific shotmakers in Jacob Pullen in Denis Clemente. Furthermore, while Pullen delivered the daggers in Thursday's double-overtime win over Xavier, it was the Wildcats' big men that did a lot of the damage during the extra periods. There are a whole list of adjectives to describe K-State: big, fast, tough, deep. They seem to have that "refuse to lose" attitude that successful teams have this time of year. They might not win the whole thing, but I think they spoil Butler's attempt to return home to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Washington) | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: In this game, I'm forced to choose between two teams I haven't trusted all tournament. After Thursday's win over Cornell, a lot was made about Kentucky's stifling defense, which, after the Big Red got off to a fast start, allowed just six points over the final 15 minutes of the first half. It's true, that's a damn impressive defensive performance, no matter who you do it against. (And Cornell is no ordinary group of Ivy Leaguers; they fairly cut up a couple of excellent defensive teams in the first two rounds.) The score at halftime was 32-16, and it appeared that the high-octane Wildcats showed that they could play offense as well as defense.

Here, however, is that I noticed: With 5:42 remaining the game, a Louis Dale three-pointer made the score 40-34, Kentucky. That's right; big, bad UK scored eight points in the first 14 minutes plus of the second half, almost as big a drought as Cornell's first-half dry spell. Even in the first 20 minutes, Kentucky was getting most of its points from their defense, in transition, not their halfcourt offense.

Maybe it wasn't a representative performance, but if they have that much trouble scoring against Cornell, how are they doing to do it against a tough defensive squad like West Virginia. (Struggling to score against Cornell isn't as forgivable as shutting them down is impressive, if that makes any sense.) Kentucky scored 190 points in the first two rounds of this tournament, but against lesser defensive teams. I didn't see either of those games, but I did see UK play well offensively only periodically in wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.

It feels weird to take the Mountaineers in this game, because I haven't been able to figure out how they keep getting it done. But, they do keep getting it done, and I think their toughness, poise, and experience gets them through. And I'm willing to go so far as to say that I think it won't be as close as you might expect.

Friday's Sweet 16 Picks

Nice little night of basketball, capped by Kansas State's incredible double overtime victory over Xavier. This was one of those games where it truly was a shame that one of the teams had to lose. It's impossible to recap the number of plays made by the Musketeers, particularly Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford. But an equal number of plays were made by the Wildcats, with Jacob Pullen putting on the finishing touches. That thriller overshadowed Butler's somewhat surprising upset of Syracuse, who inexplicably shrank down the stretch after taking a four-point lead. Elsewhere, Washington's Quincy Pondexter picked up three fouls in the first half and never really got into the flow of the game as West Virginia pulled away in the second half, and a plucky Cornell team finally succumbed to Kentucky, revealing the Wildcats to be a ferocious defensive team, if one that struggles to score in the halfcourt at times.

One note about Xavier-Kansas State before I get to picks for Friday. Down three with under ten seconds left, KSU coach Frank Martin (smartly) ordered his charges to foul, in order to prevent Xavier from attempting a game-tying three. Chris Merriewether followed those orders, but was whistled for fouling Holloway in the act of shooting. Credit Holloway for making a smart play, but divide blame between Merriewether and the officials. Merriewether's contact with Holloway came after Denis Clemente clearly grabbed Holloway. No foul was called, but Holloway, sensing the contact, went up for like 30-foot runner, hoping to trick the officials into giving him three free throws, something you see in the NBA quite a bit. The officials didn't need tricking, but Merriewether's contact resulted in those three FTs, which Holloway coolly knocked down.

I've thought for a long time that officials wait far too long to call fouls when one team is obviously trying to give one. What happened Thursday night is a rare occurrence, but at least two badthings can happen when the refs swallow their whistles. First, if the defending team is given too much leeway in slapping, they can cause the ballhandler to cough up the pill. Second, a team trying to foul but not being given the call will only try to foul harder, which leads to intentional foul calls and raised tempers. I don't know if Martin told the crew that his team was going to try to foul, but the officials needed to be looking for it, and they weren't.

On to picks for Friday's remaining Sweet 16 games:

#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Tennessee (Midwest)

Bracket: Georgetown (over Oklahoma State) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: I really don't have much of a conviction about this one. I didn't see either team much during the regular season, had both teams losing in the first weekend in my bracket, are didn't see a lot of them during their tournament wins. I'm giving the edge to the Vols, an under-seeded team that handed Kentucky one of its two losses and whose seed may have been affected by a misleading final score in the semifinals of the SEC tournament (the game was close until the last eight minutes or so). My hunch is that Tennessee's pressing defense will be too much for the Buckeyes. Evan Turner is a terrific player and a passable point guard at this level, but that's not the style he thrives in running the show. In the wacky Midwest, is anyone really gonna argue with me?

#3 Baylor vs. #10 St. Mary's (South)

Bracket: Villanova (over Old Dominion) | Pick: Baylor

Comment: Again, two teams I don't know a ton about and two teams I picked to lose in the first weekend. I was dead wrong about the Gaels' Omar Samhan; he's arguably been the tournament's most valuable player thus far. The thing is, he still hasn't done it against an NBA caliber big man, and my concerns about his quickness and athleticism -- on both ends of the floor -- remain. Baylor, however, has that NBA caliber big man in Ekpe Udoh, and this intriguing matchup is the key to the game. The crafty Samhan should try to get Udoh into foul trouble, and he may find a way to score on him. If he doesn't, and I don't think he will, St. Mary's probably doesn't have enough to keep up with LaceDarius Dunn and the rest of the high-octane Bears.

#5 Michigan State vs. #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas (over Michigan State) | Pick: Northern Iowa

Comment: If Kalin Lucas were healthy, I'd take the Spartans. But the MSU point guard tore his Achilles in the second round against Maryland, and while the Spartans hung on to beat the Terps without him, I'm not sure they can be successful over the course of a whole game against a good team like UNI. The Panthers like to slow the tempo down and Lucas is the one Spartan who could have sped it up. I don't like betting against Tom Izzo in the tournament, but I think Cinderella marches on.

#1 Duke over #4 Purdue (South)

Bracket: Duke (over Siena) | Pick: Duke

Comment: A few weeks ago, this was a possible Final Four matchup. Then Robbie Hummel went down with a knee injury -- add Hummel and Lucas to Syracuse's Arinze Onuaku and West Virginia's Truck Bryant and this tournament is missing a lot of key players, huh? -- and Purdue stumbled down the stretch. The Boilers bounced back to impressively beat Siena and Texas A&M, doing so with characteristic Big Ten toughness. Unfortunately for Purdue, Duke finally has the bodies to match that toughness. Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers are not the nation's most skilled big men, but they provide fouls and rebounding. And without Hummel, there isn't enough skill on the Purdue perimeter to counter-act Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith.

Thursday Sweet 16 picks

I should start by pointing out, as my father did to me, that I went 8-for-8 on my picks on Sunday. Not that there was too much to slip up on on that pacticular day, but perhaps it lends me a little credibility now that half of the Final Four I submitted on my bracket is gone.

#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: It was reported today that Arinze Onuaku will once again not play for the Orange, and that he hasn't practiced or played since he injured his quad on March 11. There are teams remaining in the field against whom I think this would be a big problem. From what little I know of Butler, however -- and it's very little -- the Bulldogs are not one of them. Syracuse really laid it on Gonzaga in the second round, while Butler really struggled. In a survive-and-advance format like this one, a team's past performance doesn't really matter from game to game, and especially not from weekend to weekend -- so I'm not saying that Butler can't win. But I am saying that it would take something like foul trouble for Rick Jackson and mediocre nights from Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins for it to happen. In other words, Butler doesn't control who wins this game; Syracuse does, and that's why they are the pick.

#2 Kansas State vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: Both of these teams have been impressive so far in this tournament, although I think that Pittsburgh -- the #3 seed and Xavier's second round victim -- was overrated by the selection committee, and that BYU -- which fell to K-State in the second-round -- was overrated by a Jimmer Fredette-crazy media and general public. KSU, led by Jacob Pullen, held Fredette to 21 points, which qualifies as keeping him in check. X's Jordan Crawford, who has averaged 27.5 points in two tournament games, is the next challenge -- and a different one. Where Fredette was crafty, Crawford is athletic and powerful -- and, at 6-4, four inches taller than Pullen. I expect Frank Martin to start the 6-5 Dominique Sutton on Crawford, the way he started him on Fredette. If, however, Sutton struggles with the assignment the way he did against BYU, Crawford's height advantage might give Pullen more trouble than Fredette did.

Of course, Pullen poses plenty of problems on the other end of the court, where he turned in one of the tournament's best individual performances with 34 points -- including 7-of-12 from three-point range -- against the Cougars, despite apparent hip and shoulder injuries.

Really, there are just a bunch of very good players in this game: Crawford and Pullen; Jason Love and Terrell Holloway for Xavier; Sutton and Denis Clemente for Kansas State. I expect a very good game, and I give the edge to the Wildcats because I trust Pullen and Clemente down the stretch more than I trust Crawford and Holloway. There's just something a little bit reckless about the latter two.

#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: Like their Big East counterparts Syracuse and Onuaku, West Virginia will also be without one of their starters. Point guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant will miss the rest of the tournament after breaking a bone in his foot. I'm not really sure how Bryant's absence affects this game. The Mountaineers have a capable replacement in Joe Mazzulla, who is a former starter and who actually played 24 minutes to Bryant's 16 in WVU's second-round win over Missouri. And, let's face it, a guy named Truck wasn't going to be able to guard U-Dub's lightning-quick point guard, Isaiah Thomas, anyway. The problem for West Virginia is that Mazzulla, while a good defender, can't guard Thomas, either ... and now they don't really have anyone to play behind Mazzulla ... and Mazzulla, who to be fair has suffered from a severe shoulder injury that has destroyed his shot, is, at best, not a complete liability on offense (if you catch what I'm saying). West Virginia was able to hold Missouri's high-octane offense in check, but Washington's guards are better than Mizzou's and that's why I think they win.

The matchup to watch, by the way, is at small forward, where WVU's Mr. Clutch, Da'Sean Butler, the author of a half-dozen game-winning shots this season, squares off against Quincy Pondexter, who did his best Butler impression in round one against Marquette, driving left, stepping through, and banking in a leaner with fewer than two seconds left on the clock to beat the Eagles. NBA types are salivating at the prospect of watching these two square off, and you should be, too.

#1 Kentucky v. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Texas) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I still haven't really seen Cornell, so it'd be pretty disingenuous of me to pick them to beat UK, even though I clearly don't trust Kentucky (I had them losing to Texas in the second round). They have no business beating Kentucky, either. And yet, you can at least envision a scenario where it might happen. You can see the Big Red continuing to hit shot after shot -- they're shooting an incredible 58.8 percent for the tournament so far, against Temple and Wisconsin, for crying out loud, two programs with excellent defensive reputations. You can see the volatile DeMarcus Cousins getting frustrated early and getting in to foul trouble. You can see Patrick Patterson taking a few too many three-pointers to compensate. You can see John Wall trying to do too much on his own. You can see John Calipari panicking a bit on the sidelines. You can see the Wildcats missing key free throws down the stretch and blowing, in familiar fashion, another opportunity for Coach Cal to win his first national title.

The only problem with this scenario is that, like Syracuse in their matchup with Butler, Kentucky is the one who will ultimately determine the outcome of this game -- that is, playing their absolute best, Cornell still won't beat a UK team playing at or near the top of its game. And while I obviously had some concerns about Kentucky entering the tournament that are still valid -- their immaturity and free throw shooting, namely -- their results show that they were extremely focused in the first two rounds (though East Tenneesee State and Wake Forest -- one of the least-poised major conference teams I've seen this year -- weren't exactly tough tests). This would be an all-time upset.

UNI stuns Kansas; Day Four Picks

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #1 Kansas 67 (Midwest)

Gotta start here. What a game! Because Kansas, the top overall seed, was the favorite to win the whole enchilada, this upset ranks as one of the tournament's all-time surprises. Hours later, with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that we shouldn't have been caught off-guard. The Jayhawks were the favorites by default, the strongest team in a field devoid of truly great teams. This isn't like last year's Carolina's squad losing. But let's not take anything away from UNI.

What was really remarkable about this game is not that the Panthers one, but the way they won. Mid-majors aren't supposed to beat power conference heavies by crashing the boards, but two key offensive rebounds late saved the win. Little teams from the Midwest are supposed to win games like this by hitting an inordinate number of shots (see Ohio's first round-upset of Georgetown), but UNI shot just 40 percent from the floor and hit a not-ridiculous nine three-pointers (out of 26 attempts). The Panthers won by playing confident basketball, getting to the line as much as the bigger, more athletic Jayhawks.

And then there was the shot. You've probably seen the highlights now, but to briefly set the scene, Northern Iowa was in the process of pissing this game away with turnovers, really struggling to break Kansas' full-court pressure (one has to wonder why Bill Self didn't go to this defense earlier). With 42 seconds left, UNI had let KU get within one. After a timeout, UNI broke Kansas' pressure and had a two-on-one break, with Ali Farokhmanesh (who hit the game-winner in round one vs. UNLV) handling the ball on the right wing and another Panther underneath the basket. Conventional wisdom here is to hold the ball, run some clock, get fouled, and try to salt the game away at the free throw line.

What did Farokhmanesh do? He calmly dribbled to the three-point line. When the lone Kansas defender back didn't come out to him, Farokhmanesh calmly stepped into a three-pointer that was good the whole way. UNI by four, and the game was effectively over then.

It's easy to say that this was a good shot if it goes in, but a terrible shot if it misses. Figuring out whether this is right involves a complex calculation measuring the probability of making the shot, the probability of making both free throws if Farokhmanesh pulled up, and the probability of UNI winning with a one-, two-, three-, or four-point lead. Of course, Farokhmanesh didn't think about all those things. He simply saw an opportunity to seal the game and took it, and it's hard to blame the kid for that. And because of someone named Ali Farokhmanesh, the tournament is now wide open.

***

The rest of the day's games were decent-to-good overall, but there's not much to mention beyond the box scores. I'll save any thoughts I have on them for when I make my Sweet 16 picks next week. On to picks for tomorrow's eight second-round games:

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga (West)

Bracket: Syracuse | Pick: Syracuse

Comment: The news that Arinze Onuaku will miss a second straight game with the quad injury he suffered against Georgetown makes it very tempting to pick Gonzaga here, but Gonzaga isn't really deep up front and I don't think Robert Sacre and Will Foster are enough to take advantage of the hole in the middle that will result from Onuaku's absence. I won't at all be surprised if the Zags win this one, particularly if their bevy of perimeter players can get an already thin 'cuse team in foul trouble.

#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (Midwest)

Bracket: Oklahoma State (over Ohio State) | Pick: Ohio State

Comment: A run through a mediocre ACC to the conference championship game and a win in the first-round keyed by unusually accurate free-throw shooting isn't enough to sell me on the Yellowjackets. The Buckeyes will have their hands full with Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal underneath, but GT doesn't take advantage of these guys enough. Defensively, the Jackets held Okie State's James Anderson in check, but Evan Turner is a more complete player than Anderson. Controlling his scoring his one thing, controlling his playmaking another.

#4 Michigan State vs. #4 Maryland (Midwest)

Bracket: Michigan State (over Houston) | Pick: Michigan State

Comment: The Terrapins looked much better in their opening round win over Houston than the Spartans did in beating New Mexico State, but MSU had a big lead for a while in that one. I think this one is basically a toss-up, but Maryland is weaker defensively and relies almost solely on Greivis Vasquez. Less has to go right for Michigan State to win that it does for Maryland to prevail, so the Spartans are the pick.

#2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri (East)

Bracket: West Virginia | Pick: West Virginia

Comment: Missouri's explosiveness may test a Mountaineer team that has trouble concentrating for all 40 minutes. It's easy to quickly fall behind the Tigers, and they have the potential to just run away with any game. But their unrelenting style also lends itself to allowing comebacks. Expect Bob Huggins to employ the 1-3-1 zone he occasionally favors to slow the pace down.

#4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell (East)

Bracket: Wisconsin (over Temple) | Pick: Cornell

Comment: I hate going against one of my picks like this, particularly when my bracket has Wisconsin in the Final Four (I had Texas, then Washington coming out of the East before settling on the Badgers. If I were making the pick now, I'd take Washington). But I made that pick knowing nothing about Cornell other than the fact that everyone had them beating Temple -- often a sign that a team is overrated. Now that I know that Cornell has a legitimate inside weapon and a bunch of guys who can shoot from the outside, I like them here. Wisconsin's struggles against Wofford in the first round certainly didn't help its case.

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier (West)

Bracket: Xavier | Pick: Xavier

Comment: I'm just not all that high on Pitt, which doesn't have a single outstanding player. You can't say the same about Xavier, which has Jordan Crawford. His first-round performance made a strong case that his name should be on the list of go-to guys alongside Evan Turner, De'Sean Butler, and now, Ali Farokhmanesh.

#4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M (South)

Bracket: Siena (over Utah State) | Pick: Purdue

Comment: This is purely a hunch pick, which is not surprising given that I didn't think enough of either favorite to win even their first-round matchup. The Boilermakers are playing with a little bit of a chip on their shoulders since being counted out after losing Robbie Hummel, and I think that'll make the difference. I think.

#1 Duke vs. #8 California (South)

Bracket: Duke | Pick: Duke

Comment: With Villanova's exit on Saturday at the hands of St. Mary's, I think Cal might actually be Duke's toughest remaining test on the way to the Final Four. The Devils don't have anyone as good as dimunitive Bear point guard Jerome Randle, but they have the three next-best players in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. Now that they finally have a front line, they win my vote.

Day Three Picks

#2 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary's (South)

Bracket: Villanova (over Richmond) | Pick: Villanova

Comment: Fortunate to have survived their first-round matchup with Robert Morris, the Wildcats shake it off and cruise. They've got no real answer to Omar Samhan inside, but Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will overwhelm Mickey McConnell.

#5 Butler vs. #13 Murray State (West)

Bracket: Butler | Pick: Butler

Comment: Both clubs notched impressive first-round victories, though both opponents were probably over-rated. Edge goes to the Bulldogs, because they're the better team.

#6 Tennessee vs. #14 Ohio (Midwest)

Bracket: Georgetown (over San Diego State) | Pick: Tennessee

Comment: Look, if the Bobcats shoot as well as they did against the Hoyas, they can beat nearly anybody. But they were a middling shooting team this season, and it's difficult to catch lightning in a bottle more than once. Armon Bassett could carry them, but I think Tennessee's a bit better than they're being given credit for.

#1 Kansas vs. #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest)

Bracket: Kansas (over UNLV) | Pick: Kansas

Comment: I don't really need to explain why I think the Jayhawks will win, do I?

#3 Baylor vs. #11 Old Dominion (South)

Bracket: Old Dominion | Pick: Old Dominion

Comment: The Bears have plenty of offensive firepower, but haven't impressed me defensively and struggled against Sam Houston State in round one. The Monarchs take a close one.

#3 New Mexico vs. #11 Washington (East)

Bracket: Washington | Pick: Washington

Comment: At the start of the year, you might have expected these two teams' seeds to be swapped. The Huskies are finally playing up to their potential, while the Lobos struggled to beat Montana in round one.

#2 Kansas State vs. #7 BYU (West)

Bracket: Kansas State | Pick: Kansas State

Comment: I'm not ready to say that Jimmer Fredette can't score on the K-State's defenders, who are quicker and more athletic than he's used to. But I will say that it will be hard enough that the Cougars won't win.

#1 Kentucky vs. #9 Wake Forest (East)

Bracket: Texas (over Kentucky) | Pick: Kentucky

Comment: I thought the Wildcats might be vulnerable, though that was before they came out as one of the few top seeds on Thursday not to struggle. Expect this one to be sloppy, but the more talented team should win.

Day Two Recap

There wasn't nearly as much interesting Friday as there was on Thursday (how could there have been?), so I'm not going to go game by game, I don't think.

#12 Cornell 78, #5 Temple 65 (East)

#4 Purdue 72, #13 Siena 64 (South)

Cornell and Siena were probably the two most popular upset picks heading into the tournament. I was on the Siena bandwagon mainly for anti-Purdue reasons, but I went against the crowd taking Cornell. Oh-for-two. Neither of these games were televised in my area, so I only caught bits and pieces when the TV coverage switched and on MMOD. From what I could tell, Cornell just shot the lights out, and given how their second-round opponent, Wisconsin, struggled today against Wofford, a trip to the Sweet 16 seems very possible, if not quite likely.

As for Siena, they held a three-point halftime lead before giving up a big run to start the second. They trailed by quite a bit, then made a late push, and actually would've had the ball with a chance to tie the game if not for a lucky bounce on a Boiler free throw (the ball hit the precise spot where the rim meets the backboard, died, and dropped through). As far as I could tell, the tide turned when the game got physical and the officials, to Purdue's distinct advantage, let the kids play. That's not to say that the Boilermakers got the better of the calls; just that they are far more suited to playing that style.

#10 Missouri 86, #7 Clemson 78 (East)

Missouri's transition from defense to offense needs to be seen to be believed. On multiple occasions against Clemson, Missouri players were running up court before I even noticed their team had the ball. That's not all that remarkable when the change in possession comes from a missed shot; a lot of teams have someone leak out when a shot goes up. But this happened on steals. I've never seen a team more conscious of their transition offense. I'm really looking forward to their matchup against West Virginia (comfortable victors over Morgan State on Friday) in the second round.

At what point does the selection committee stop inviting Oliver Purnell-coached teams to the tournament? He's now 0-6 in tournament games with Old Dominion, Dayton, and Clemson, despite the fact that he's had the higher-ranked squad on four of those occasions, including each of the last three years. I have no reason to doubt those who say that Purnell is a good coach and a good guy, but these results speak for themselves.

#10 Georgia Tech 64, #7 Oklahoma State 59

I don't feel too bad having picked the Cowboys to win this one, considering the margin of victory and the fact that the Jackets made 24 of 25 free throws and didn't make a field goal for the final eight minutes. GT made fewer than two-thirds of their free throws on the year (307th out of 347 Division I teams), so the season-extending near-perfect day at the stripe certainly came as a surprise. (As an aside, Wofford was kind of the anti-Georgia Tech on Friday, missing six of seven second-half free throws in what ended up being a four-point loss to Wisconsin. This performance was more in line with what they did in the regular season, however, where they shot just better than 67 percent from the line).

I do have one issue with Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford, however, who left the Bradley Center in Milwaukee with a timeout in his pocket. I thought he should have called it when the Cowboys got the ball back down three with 43 seconds left, because you can't really trust players to know to go for a quick two and then foul in that spot. He didn't, James Anderson turned the ball over, and then, after another two Tech free throws put the Jackets up five, Ford again didn't call timeout, even as his charges struggled to find an open look (Anderson ended up taking an impossible jumper). The season's on the line, coach. Do your job.

Also, does Keiton Page look like Ollie from Hoosiers or what?

#5 Michigan State 70, #12 New Mexico State 67 (Midwest)

The Aggies found themselves on the wrong end of two questionable decisions by the referees in the final seconds, leading SI's Luke Winn to tweet immediately following the game that they had been given a rawer deal than Robert Morris against Villanova on Thursday.

The first was a lane violation on a Raymar Morgan free throw with 19 seconds left. Troy Gillenwater was ruled to have stepped in the lane early on Morgan's miss, giving Morgan a reprieve, of which he quickly took advantage. Video replay after the game showed the call to be technically correct, but I still have problems with the call. For one, you see lane violations far more often than you see lane violations called, and this particular situation seems like an odd place to start being a stickler for the rules.

The second problem I have with the call goes to the heart of why stepping into the lane early is illegal, for which I can think of two justifications: To prevent distracting the shooter, and to prevent one player from gaining an unfair advantage on the rebound. Neither was a concern in this instance. Gillenwater's violation could hardly be discerned (I certainly didn't notice it while watching live); it wasn't a demonstrative hop-in, hop-out. I doubt Morgan noticed it at all. To the other point, Gillenwater had to re-establish himself outside the lane, and thus did not gain any advantage. If anything, he probably was into the lane for the rebound a fraction of a second later than he would have otherwise.

Speaking of fractions of a second, the second late call that went against NMSU came after they missed a shot on the ensuing possession, with the rebound going out of bounds off the Spartans. The clock showed just three-tenths of a second remaining, and NMSU appealed for the referees to check the tape to make sure they the clock was right. The refs declined to do so, even though it seemed clear to me watching live that the clock had briefly continued to run after the ball had touched out of bounds. (Indeed, video replay confirmed after the game that there should have been an additional three-tenths, for six-tenths total.)

It seems silly to quibble over three-tenths of a second, and most of the time, it is. The one exception, however, is when the added time would take the game clock from three-tenths of a second or less to more than three-tenths. Why? Because the powers that be in basketball have scientifically, though not altogether convincingly, decided that you cannot catch and shoot a basketball in less than four-tenths of a second. So going from .3 to .6 would have given the Aggies more of a chance to score on that final possession.

What's particularly obnoxious about this is that the officials often go to the tape in this situations, and they didn't this time. I'd like to see a more uniform system, even if it's something small like "automatically check the tape when the clock has three-tenths or less." NMSU coach Marvin Menzies was frantically appealing for the officials to review the tape. The problem with allowing a coach to ask for such a review is that the ensuing delay effectively serves as a timeout, something Menzies didn't have at his disposal. That would then be an incentive to automatically ask for a review even when one clearly wasn't warranted.

Anyway, I thought this was plainly a bad job by the officials. I also felt that the Spartans got the benefit of a few tough calls down the stretch even before the final 20 seconds.

Day Two Picks

West Virginia over Morgan State

Temple over Cornell

Missouri over Clemson

Wisconsin over Wofford

Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech

Michigan State over New Mexico State

Ohio State over UCSB

Houston over Maryland

Siena over Purdue

Utah State over Texas A&M

Duke over Arkansas-Pine Bluff

California over Louisville

Xavier over Minnesota

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Gonzaga over Florida State

Syracuse over Vermont

Thoughts on an Amazing First Day

What an incredible day! If you're reading this, you probably care enough to know more or less what happened -- and a lot happened -- so this won't be a recap as much as it will be a collection of more or less random thoughts, organized by game, as I frantically monitored the action on CBS and March Madness on Demand (MMOD).

#14 Ohio 97, #3 Georgetown 83 (Midwest)

#11 Old Dominion 50, #6 Notre Dame 50 (South)

#11 Washington 80, #6 Marquette 78 (East)

As I think I mentioned in my preview of the Midwest region, in justifying picking Georgetown to advance to the Elite 8, the toughest calls every tournament prognosticator has to make is how to handle teams that maybe underachieved for most of the season, but made a charge late in the season and/or during the conference tournament to nab a tournament bid or a better seed. The challenge is that the momentum these teams have built up tends to dissipate over the four or five days between Selection Sunday and the first round, and you have to decide which version of the team is the "real" one.

I had decided that Georgetown had turned a corner of sorts during its run to the Big East title game, that Notre Dame was way over-seeded after playing its way from out of the tournament to a #6 in just two or three weeks, and that Washington, winners of seven straight games (including the Pac 10 tournament) had found its footing as the team everyone expected them to be at the start of the season. Two out of three ain't bad.

As someone who takes pride in his ability to be realistic about the tournament, I am a little embarrassed that I fell into the Georgetown trap. In my defense, from what I understand (didn't see too much of this one) Ohio's blowout was more about the Bobcats than it was about the Hoyas. In order to pick a first-round upset of a #3 seed, you need to have confidence in the opponent, and I'm not sure how anyone could have had that much faith in a team that finished 9th in the MAC regular season. But behind the brilliance of Indiana transfer Armon Bassett and freshman D.J. Cooper, the Bobcats shot 58 percent for the game, made 13 of 23 three-pointers, and stunned the Hoyas.

On the other hand, I correctly predicted Notre Dame to lose and had Washington advancing. The former is a classic instance of the principle mentioned above; not only was Notre Dame over-seeded, they were facing Old Dominion, which won a very tough CAA tournament and beat Georgetown on the road in December. Washington edged out Marquette, another team whose seed may have been inflated by a series of late, close wins. The Huskies, with talented lightning bug guards Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton, along with legitimate NBA talent Quincy Pondexter (the author of the game-winning shot, a big-time drive and leaner past Jimmy Butler) definitely have the talent to make a lot more noise in this Dance.

#13 Murray State 66, #4 Vanderbilt 65 (West)

I just said that it's not enough to think a favored team is bad or overrated in order to pick them to lose in the first round, but that's kind of what I did with the Commodores. The Racers had enough going for them -- 30 wins; an impressive 17-1 run in the Ohio Valley, the support of President Obama, and the emotional angle of a reserve player's mother being killed in a car accident earlier in the week -- but really, my pick in this game was that Vandy just hasn't impressed me. They didn't impress anyone today. Credit Danero Thomas for hitting a tough pull-up over two guys at the horn to win it, but it did look to me like those two defenders got crossed up at a crucial moment, allowing Thomas to free himself, rise, and fire.

#7 BYU 99, #10 Florida 92 (2 OT) (West)

This barnburner got the whole thing started. Two players won it for the Cougars, who survived Florida possessions with the score tied at the end of both regulation and the first overtime. The first was Jimmer Fredette, who had 37 points. Fredette is a big-time scorer, but this was my first look at him, and I came away very impressed. The guy is incredibly crafty in the lane and around the rim, varying his timing and release points to throw off shotblockers' rhythms. There's chatter that he might slip into the first round of next summer's NBA Draft, though his physical gifts are not the stuff of most NBA first-rounders. His craftiness and lack of NBA size and quickness remind me a little bit of Davidson's Stephen Curry, who's enjoying a fantastic rookie season in Golden State running Don Nelson's high-octane offense. But Curry's brilliance comes from his ability to create enough space to get off his polished jumpshot, which is an entirely different story than coming up with ways to get by quicker guys your size and then finish over and around guys who are eight or ten inches taller than you. I understand that Fredette can hit the deep ball, and I'll be on the lookout for it when they face Kansas State in the second round.

The other key Cougar was Michael Loyd Jr., a junior who averaged less than five points a game this year but had 26 against the Gators. Loyd took over during two key stretches; a 2:15 streak in the first half during which he went on his own personal 10-0 to bring BYU from down seven to up three; and then late in the first overtime and throughout the second, hitting key free throws. This is a delicate point to make, but it was certainly interesting to watch Loyd, the rare black BYU player, come in and boost a struggling Cougar team during that important stretch in the first half. I can only assume that Loyd is Mormon, given that he's from Vegas and goes to BYU (yes, Las Vegas has a large Mormon community) and it was hard not to imagine this scenario playing out when Loyd was younger, single-handedly leading a bunch of unassuming kids to victory.

One red flag I wanted to point out about BYU is how terribly they handled the end game on multiple occasions today (when you go to double overtime, you have multiple end game situations). At the end of the first overtime, with the score tied and the shotclock off, Fredette took off dribbling into the front court, then slowed and quite casually tried to move laterally among a number of Gator players. He was stripped, and if Florida had been able to convert, that would have been the game. Then, in the second overtime, when BYU seemingly had the game in hand, Loyd needlessly pushed the ball on multiple occassions and was fortunate to turn it over. They'll have to be more careful in crunch time against Kansas State.

#9 Wake Forest 81, #8 Texas 80 (OT) (East)

Kind of a fitting end to an incredibly frustrating season for the Longhorns. I watched this game intermittently (my TV was tuned to Tennessee-San Diego State for most of it) and every time I looked, it appeared that Texas was playing great defense but not getting anything to fall on the offensive end. Hell, I saw Dexter Pittman miss two shots from one foot late in regulation, and I also saw Avery Bradley save any chance of victory by making an incredible block on an Ish Smith breakaway with a minute or so to go. After a frantic end to regulation, which saw a no-call on what I thought was a clear Wake foul on a dunk attempt, followed by a traveling call on the ensuing inbounds pass, and then one of two for Texas to tie the score, it looked like the Longhorns would prevail, going up eight in overtime while capitalizing on Wake Forest turnovers. Missed free throws and a failure to control the defensive glass, however, paved the way for Smith's game winning jumper with about a second and a half left.

It's widely believed that locker room issues derailed what was once a promising season (remember, the 'horns won their first 17 games and were at one point ranked #1 in the country). And I couldn't help but notice that after Smith's dagger, Texas coach Rick Barnes had a timeout but didn't use it. Sure, it was worth nothing but a Hail Mary, but a lot can happen in under two seconds, like a foul or a basket. I'm not saying he did it on purpose, but symbolically, it was almost as if Barnes wanted the season to be over.

#2 Villanova 73, #15 Robert Morris 70 (OT) (South)

From what I understand, the officials gave this one to the Wildcats, bailing out Scottie Reynolds again and again in the final few minutes of regulation. That's a shame, because from what little I saw, the Colonials played with a ton of moxie. Plus, 15 over 2 upsets are rare (only four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985) and rare is always fun. Oh well. Hard to complain with everything else we got today.

For Villanova fans and those whose brackets depend on the Wildcats winning a few more games, remember that Villanova did this last year, advancing to the Final Four after trailing American by 14 early in the second half. That game was all I could think of today as I tracked the score, figuring that 'nova would eventually turn it on. Then it started to get late, then really late, and I didn't think they'd pull it off. They did, but just barely.

#10 St. Mary's 80, #7 Richmond 71 (South)

I was right that the Spiders' Kevin Anderson would prove to be nothing special (16 points, 4 assists, no resistance when the game started to get out of hand), but I was wrong when I said that the Gaels' Omar Samhan would disappoint. I don't know if he reads 19-9 or what, but he dominated with 29 points and 12 boards, leading his team to a remarkable 40-17 edge on the glass. And he did it despite being saddled with a little bit of foul trouble. Well done, Omar.

Here's the thing, though: My contention is that Samhan's stats are inflated because his 6-11, 260-pound frame is simply too big for most West Coast Conference foes. Richmond, out of the Atlantic 10, doesn't have that major conference size, either. So I'm not sure how much Samhan's performance on Thursday really proves. I'm not sure how much we can take from whatever Samhan might do against Villanova, either. The Wildcats are a Big East team, the bruisiest of conferences, but they are perimeter-oriented. They have some big bodies, but their two tallest kids are freshman, and one is the wispy Maurice Sutton. A random canvass of Villanova's games this year shows 29-14 and 19-8 (including 11-of-14 from the line) performances from Georgetown's Greg Monroe, for example.

#9 Northern Iowa 69, #8 UNLV 66 (Midwest)

#6 Tennessee 62, #11 San Diego State 59 (Midwest)

These games are only related in that I disagree with the way UNLV and Tennessee defended their respective opponents' final possession, and they did in a similar way.

With the game tied and just over a shotclock remaining, UNLV stayed in the trapping halfcourt defense that had forced a couple of turnovers and bad shots late. While I generally think it's a good idea to not let the team holding for one shot just dribble out the clock and get the ball to whoever they want, I do think this is a risky tactic, for two reasons. The first reason is that it's easy to accidentally foul, as UNLV did and were fortunate enough to have officials let slide (although given the ultimate result of the play, they'd have been better off had the refs blown the whistle on one of the two bumps that occurred 35 feet from the bucket). The second is that such a defense often leaves individuals open, and if those individuals get the ball, they'll often have a clean look at the basket. That's what happened with UNI; after some tense moments on the perimeter, the ball swung to Ali Farokhmanesh, a career 37 percent three-point shooter who buried a 25-footer over a late challenge with under five seconds to go.

Tennessee was up three under ten seconds after nailing two free throws and chose to harass SDSU as the Aztecs brought it up court. Forcing them to run time off the clock is good, but SDSU got a decent look from a very similar spot to where Farokhmanesh hit his shot. Credit Wayne Chism for making a quick recovery and an athletic challenge without fouling.

My problem here is that inside 27 feet or so, an open look is almost always a better shot for most college players than one off the dribble. So if I'm a coach, I don't want anyone spotting up to win or tie the game. Given that it's very difficult to trap for most of a possession and then fall into a more traditional defense at the end of the clock, I think the better move is to put a little less pressure on the ball.

#3 New Mexico 62, #14 Montana 57

Still don't know much of anything about the Lobos, as I was watching Tennessee-SDSU and Wake Forest-Texas throughout much of this one. Nothing too impressive from UNM, but the fight from the Grizzlies is even more impressive given that Anthony Johnson, he of the 42-point game in the Big Sky championship, scored six points and hit just one of 12 shots. As Mark from Sham Sports tweeted after the game, however: "Why did Anthony Johnson have 42 in the [Big Sky] Championship game and an 0-for tonight? Because Weber St. were small and unathletic, like him." Hear, hear.

#5 Butler 77, #12 UTEP 59 (West)

Called it, didn't see it, still don't expect the Bulldogs to have much trouble with Murray State in the second round.

#3 Baylor 68, #14 Sam Houston State 59 (South)

Called it, didn't see it, still expect that Baylor will get bounced by Old Dominion in the second round.

#1 Kentucky 100, #16 East Tennessee State 71 (East)

#1 Kansas 90, #16 Lehigh 74 (Midwest)

#2 Kansas State 82, #15 North Texas 62 (West)

Congratulations to the Wildcats, Jayhawks, and, um, Wildcats, for winning comfortably on a day when so many teams that should have, didn't. This is the first time I can remember that I didn't have to watch a second of a 1/16 or 2/15 matchup on one of the first two days of the tournament -- a combination of being on the West Coast, where there are no top seeds this year, and the great slate of games.

This tournament has already met my expectations for everything I want out of March Madness. I don't expect an improvement, but hopefully we can keep the close games coming.

Day One Picks

Kentucky over East Tennessee State

Washington over Marquette

Texas over Wake Forest

New Mexico over Montana

UNLV over Northern Iowa

Georgetown over Ohio

Kansas over Lehigh

San Diego State over Tennessee

Old Dominion over Notre Dame

Villanova over Robert Morris

Baylor over Sam Houston State

Richmond over St. Mary's

BYU over Florida

Murray State over Vanderbilt

Kansas State over North Texas

Butler over UTEP

West breakdown

The last of four regional breakdowns heading into the NCAA tournament, which tips Thursday.

(Midwest | East | South)

* I have a long history with Syracuse. Growing up in a state without a major conference program and attending undergrad at a Patriot League school, there's no power conference team that is natural for me to root for. With that said, I grew up with only the Big East on CBS to slake my college basketball thirst, and the Orange seemed to be on every Saturday back then. As a result, I've always had a soft spot for Jim Boeheim's bunch.

Back in 2002-2003 (the Carmelo Anthony year), I said I thought that Syracuse had a real shot to win the national title (which, of course, they eventually did). That's the only time I've ever said that, so I took real notice when I found myself thinking the same thing while watching the 'cuse earlier this year. Now, I'm not so sure. Syracuse has an outstanding team, a squad that complements each other well and has real chemistry. But the last several minutes of their Big East quarterfinal loss to Georgetown revealed a real problem for the Orange; namely, where does the ball going during crunch time?

Arinze Onuaku's knee injury didn't help matters, but he's really not a guy you'd expect Syracuse to go to late. There are basically three options for that role on this team. Wesley Johnson, the transfer from Iowa State, has had an All-America quality year, but part of his effectiveness is that he doesn't need the ball to affect a game. He often ends up with the ball, but he's not the kind of guy you run a play for when you need a basket. Scoop Jardine, who technically backs up Brandon Triche but is the effective starting point guard in that he plays most of the end-game in close contests, is more than willing to take the ball in his hands late, but for all his improvement this season, he still needs to be reined in a bit. And Andy Rautins, who I considered the most reliable of the options, made several bad decisions as the Hoyas took the lead and then completely disappeared for the last seven minutes.

The 'cuse should have more than enough to get by Vermont in the first round (though it will be fun to watch UVM's Marqus Blakely try to find the open areas in SU's vaunted 2-3 zone). But beginning with a second-round matchup against either Gonzaga or Florida State, Syracuse won't have a sure thing the rest of the way. They're not in a terribly difficult bracket, but given Onuaku's balky leg and the fact that they only go seven deep anyway, there's precious little margin for error. I expect them to go down in the regional final, should they make it that far, to Kansas State and its pair of go-to guys, Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

* Without having seen much of New Mexico, I can't say for sure that Pittsburgh is the weakest #3 in the tournament field, but to me, the Panthers top a relatively long list of over-seeded teams in this region, including Vanderbilt and Butler. I don't expect any of those three to survive the first weekend, with the latter two in real danger of losing their first-round matchups (to Murray State and UTEP, respectively).

* I'm not really sure what Florida is doing in the tournament. They are 21-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC, but with a number of close wins, including one at NC State in which a guy hit like a 75-footer at the horn to win. They have a mid-50s RPI, one spot lower than Mississippi State, to whom the Gators lost in the SEC semifinals. Their strength of schedule is a bit better than the Bulldogs', and that's surely what gave them a bid over MSU. But I didn't see anyone with Florida in their projected brackets on Selection Sunday, and I certainly don't have them in my second round.

Back tomorrow morning with quick picks for the day.

South breakdown

Soldiering on with random thoughts on each region of the upcoming NCAA tournament.

(Midwest | East)

* Frankly, I find this region kind of boring, and I'm struggling to find things to write about. The consensus seems to be that the road is paved for top-seeded Duke to make the Final Four. With arguably the field's weakest #2 and #4 seeds, the selection committee certainly didn't make life overly tough on the Blue Devils. This Duke team is the most complete in years, though they are heavily reliant on Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith. But in Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers, the Devils have at least something resembling a frontcourt. They are the favorites to come out of this region, and I don't see much standing in their way.

* Villanova may not have deserved the #2 seed it got. They lost five of their last seven games and I don't think anyone who watched the two teams at the end of the year could honestly say that the Wildcats were better than Georgetown. Given, however, that the Hoyas finished the regular season with the eighth-best record in the Big East and that the group of #3 seeds is otherwise pretty weak, perhaps Villanova simply got their seed by default.

Underestimating 'nova teams under Jay Wright has been risky business in the tournament, however, and he's got his usual guard-driven attack. Scottie Reynolds has grown up as much as anyone in the country, and they have a bunch of really good perimeter players. The real difference between this team and the one that advanced to the national semifinals is that they are missing Dante Cunningham, but just as there aren't a lot of obstacles for Duke, there aren't that many for Villanova. A matchup with Duke in the regional final would pit Wildcat swingman Taylor King against his old team.

* Other than Villanova, the teams that might give the Blue Devils the most trouble play each other in the first round. I saw California when they came down to LA to play USC, and little Jerome Randle is as good a player I've seen this year. Louisville has had its ups and downs, but those ups include beating Syracuse twice. I give the slight edge to Cal, because the Bears are experienced and consistent on the perimeter, whereas the Cardinals, particularly Edgar Sosa, are up and down.

* One team that might have challenged Duke is Purdue. Up until a few weeks ago, the Boilers were in contention for a top seed themselves, but a season-ending knee injury to Robbie Hummel sent them stumbling down the stretch. Whether their high seed is reflective of the committee's opinion of Purdue's potential without Hummel or more of a result of their actual performance (they scored 11 points in the first half of a 27-point loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten semifinals) is unclear, but they are certainly a different and less intimidating team than they were in January. Siena, their first-round opponent, is a popular upset pick, and even without knowing anything about the MAAC champions other than they were something of a darkhorse to start the year, it's a selection I'm tempted to make, just based on Purdue's recent struggles.

* Notre Dame is as interesting as any team in the tournament. Never known for their defense, the Irish were forced to slow their tempo way down and focus on locking the opposition up when Luke Harangody went down late in the year. ND responded with six straight wins -- including two over Pittsburgh and one over Georgetown -- before narrowly losing to West Virginia in the Big East quarters.

Harangody has been back for the last few games, but this is very much a "new' Notre Dame team, with Harangody even still coming off the bench. What's interesting about them is that unlike most grind-it-out teams, about which you worry about falling behind in a tournament setting and then not having the firepower to catch up, the Irish are theoretically the same team that was lighting up the scoreboard earlier in the year. An ability to switch styles, if necessary, might come in handy. They have their work cut out for them, however, first against an Old Dominion team that beat Georgetown in December, and then probably a very explosive Baylor squad.

* A quick note about the 7/10 game between Richmond and St. Mary's: Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and Gaels center Omar Samhan both aren't as good as people will tell you leading up to this game. Anderson is quick and explosive but makes too many bad decisions; Samhan is slow and unathletic and relies on major conference size to excel in a mid-major conference. These two teams seem to be the darlings of many prognosticators, but I don't see either of them really challenging Villanova in the second round.

East Breakdown

Continuing on with region-by-region analysis of the upcoming NCAA Tournament, here's a look at the South. (Other regions: Midwest)

* Any analysis of this region has to start with its #1 seed, Kentucky. The Wildcats have more top-end talent than just about anyone in the tournament, with three players projected to go in the lottery of this summer's NBA Draft. It's balanced top-talent, too, with an attack led by lead guard John Wall and fortified by freshman DeMarcus Cousins (6-11, 270) and junior Patrick Patterson (6-8, 223).

There are significant question marks surrounding UK, however. Coach John Calipari favors a drive-and-kick offense that showcases Wall's considerable talent, but works best with a sharpshooting squad. Kentucky, however, is a decidedly middling outside shooting team, hitting just 34.4 percent of its three-pointers on the season (good for a tie for 166th out of 347 Division I teams). Moreover, free-throw shooting -- an Achilles heel of Calipari's teams at Memphis that cost him the 2008 national championship -- is also a problem for the 'cats. Kentucky is a below-average team from the charity stripe, hitting 69 percent of its attempts, which ranks 207th in the nation. Free throw shooting nearly cost them Sunday's SEC championship game against Mississippi State. Poor shooting from behind the arc and from the free throw line is not the stuff of successful tournament runs.

That game against Mississippi State also raised questions about the team's ability to perform in crunch time. Kentucky won a couple of close games against big name programs at the beginning of the year, but those wins against North Carolina and Connecticut look a lot less impressive when you consider that both those teams aren't in the field of 65 this year. Tournament games have a different atmosphere, and without a significant player on the roster who has played in the NCAAs -- remember, the Wildcats uncharacteristically struggled during Billy Gillispie's two-year stint at the helm -- observers are justified in questioning them when it comes to winning time. The ball will undoubtedly go to Wall in those situations, but Wall doesn't rise to the level of "if there's one guy I could have with the ball when I absolutely needed a basket, it'd be him" the way Calipari's most recent lead guards at Memphis did. That's not a knock on the kid -- Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans are remarkable players -- but I do think Wall is overrated. He didn't exactly instill confidence down the stretch against Mississippi State, short-arming an easy shot that would have given his team the lead with 10 seconds left, then leaving a game-winning three-pointer well short. If Jarvis Varnado had boxed out or otherwise prevented Cousins from grabbing Wall's last miss and sticking it back, Wall never would have had the opportunity to redeem himself by tossing in a ridiculous, off-balance three-pointer at the end of the shot clock late in regulation that sealed the SEC crown and MSU's NIT bid -- a shot that he quite simply got lucky on.

* Yes, Kentucky is beatable. Who can or will do it, however, remains an open question. Texas, the #8 seed and a potential second-round opponent for the Wildcats, no doubt will tempt more than a few prognosticators. The Longhorns entered the season with high expectations, won their first 17 games -- including convincing neutral site victories over Pittsburgh and Michigan State -- and earned the top spot in the weekly polls. Almost immediately upon ascending to #1, however, they tripped up, losing on the road to Kansas State, which in itself isn't a big deal, except that it triggered a finish to the season that saw Texas go 7-9 the rest of the way. The Longhorns have only won back-to-back games once since January 16, and their only "good" wins since that time have been two against Oklahoma State. With the exception of a loss to Oklahoma in Norman, none of their losses are particularly bad, either, but combine their inconsistent play with the fact that they've lost a couple of key players to injury throughout the year, and you can make the case that the Longhorns are actually over-seeded.

With that all said, Texas is experienced and rugged. They don't have quite as much size as Kentucky, but they are willing to bang, which combined with experience goes a long way in the college game. I worry about how they'd fare if Kentucky chooses to push the tempo -- which they undoubtedly will -- because with injuries to Varez Ward and Dogus Balbay, the Longhorns have significant issues at the lead guard spot.

I haven't decided for sure yet, but I'm tempted to advance the Longhorns here. What's giving me pause is the fact that I don't have a great track record with teams that underachieve towards the end of the year, which Texas has clearly done.

* In order for Texas to face Kentucky, of course, they'll need to move past Wake Forest, which they should do. I only mention the Demon Deacons to address what I understand is a controversy over Wake's inclusion in the field over Virginia Tech. The Hokies, at 23-8 overall and 10-6 in the ACC, were probably in the field of 65 until Houston and New Mexico State won their conference tournaments, leading the committee to award at-large bids to UTEP and Utah State. The Hokies' schedule ranked something like 339th out of 347 Division I teams, which is pretty remarkable when you consider that they are in a power conference and forced to play at least a couple of games against elite teams.

There are a couple of arguments that people seem to be making in favor of Va. Tech. The one that relates to Wake is that the Hokies beat the Deacs on February 16. First of all, that's never been how the selection committee operates. Secondly, I'm sorry, but a four-point win on your home floor is not enough to convince me that you're better than whoever you played.

The second argument is that no ten-win ACC team has been left out of the tournament since it was expanded to include 64 teams in 1985, and that it's particularly fishy this year, considering how bad the Pac 10 is (it only got two bids, so theoretically, there are a handful more at-large bids available this year than most years). For starters, this argument ignores the strength of conferences like the Mountain West (four bids) and Atlantic 10 (3 bids) relative to other years, as well as the presence of a strong crop of non-BCS types that slipped up in their conference title games. It also ignores the relative weakness of the ACC, which, despite its six bids, is in my estimation rather weak this year. (Duke's elite, Maryland's okay, the rest are kind of blah).

I generally try not to take sides in these types of arguments, choosing instead to focus on whether the snubbed team did all it could be expected to do. And the Hokies didn't pass that test. What's really annoying about this entire argument is that this isn't the first time this has happened to VT under Seth Greenberg; if memory serves, we've been having a similar conversation about the Hokies three out of the last four years. If you want an NCAA bid, you need to schedule somebody out of conference. Virginia Tech might be better than Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, but without a non-conference win like WF's over Gonzaga or a signature conference victory over Duke or Maryland, they don't have much of an argument.

* I've spent a lot of space talking about just a few teams, and that's because I just don't know too much about a ton of teams in this region. Cornell is a fascinating #12 seed, and the #5 they're matched up with, Temple, is supposed to be very good. The #3, New Mexico, was perhaps in line for a #2 until tripping up in the Mountain West semis. Wisconsin, Clemson, and Missouri are probably solid, as they always are. I just haven't seen or heard enough about them this year to make informed opinions.

* One very intriguing first-round matchup, however, is the 6/11 pitting Marquette against Washington. Marquette has probably played more close games than anyone in the country this year, with mixed results. They started Big East play 1-3, beating Georgetown by three while losing to West Virginia, Villanova, and Villanova again by a combined five points. They turned their fortunes around at the end of the year, however, winning three straight overtime games in the last week of February (though against decidely inferior opposition) before crushing Louisville and then losing another OT game to Notre Dame in the regular season finale. Marquette got its revenge against 'nova in the Big East quarterfinals, playing its way into a good seed.

Washington, on the other hand, started the season ranked in the top half of the Top 25 (I can't find my copy of the college basketball preview issue, but I want to say Sports Illustrated had the Huskies ranked in the top ten to start the year) and then really struggled. Given the high seed given to them by the committee, they probably needed the win over Cal in the Pac 10 championship game to get a bid to the tourney. Other than a few segments of that game, the only time I've seen Washington this year is when they came to LA and got absolutely hammered by USC (two nights after narrowly losing to an under-achieving UCLA team). Lorenzo Romar's squad has the talent to make some noise in this tournament, though its focused heavily in the backcourt and on the wing. That shouldn't be a problem against Marquette, and as I said, I don't really know it's going to be a problem against New Mexico (though ESPN's Joe Lunardi says it isn't.) But it might be an issue should U-Dub advance to play Kentucky -- a tall task for an 11 seed, but certainly not out of the question this year.

* Finally, I should talk about West Virginia, a team I've avoided just because I have a hard time figuring them out. They seem to find themselves in a ton of close games, either because they start slow and have to rally or have a big lead and then give it up. The thing is, no matter how they get there, they seem to win those close games, in large part due to Da'Sean Butler. Butler's game-winners against Cincinnati and Georgetown in the Big East tournament were his fifth and sixth such shots of the season -- making him the college version of Kobe Bryant.

I never know what to make of teams like this, whether their luck will run out or the experience in close games will be helpful in the tournament atmosphere. And I still don't. I want to pick them to advance out of the region, but I'm not terribly keen on taking a team that seems so dependent on one player. Sorry folks, but this one's still up in the air.

Midwest Breakdown

Almost a year since my last post, and I haven't watched nearly as much college basketball this season as I have in previous years, but Championship Week gave me the itch, so I'm going to try to keep this going throughout the tournament, then keep this going a bit better next year, or find a way to consolidate all my basketball writing into one place (in case you don't know, I have a Celtics/NBA blog called Rhymes With Hondo).

So, to that end, I'll be breaking down each of the four regions, one per day, for the next four days. I'm not necessarily going to go team-by-team or even game-by-game. I don't actually have a format in mind. I just want to rap a little bit about some of the stuff I've seen.

Might as well start in the Midwest region, home of the tournament's top overall seed, the Kansas Jayhawks:

* Kansas was my pick to win it all at the beginning of the year, and I'm standing firm. Frankly, I haven't been overwhelmed by what I've seen of the Jayhawks, but no team has really impressed me this year. I'll mention the other contenders' flaws when I write about them and their regions, but, in a bit of foreshadowing, I like the Jayhawks' veteran leadership. Not that Bill Self's club is terribly long in the tooth -- the Morris kids are sophomores and Xavier Henry is a freshman -- but it does have Sherron Collins, the person not named Mario Chalmers who is most responsible for Kansas' win in the 2008 national championship game. (Remember his steal/three combo that cut a seven-point lead to four with less than two minutes to go?) Collins gives Kansas a definitive place to go with the ball in crunch-time, and that sets them apart from other title contenders. Kentucky and Syracuse have shown recent chinks in the armor in that regard (more on that when I tackle their respective regions), and I'm not convinced that Duke's Jon Scheyer is the same caliber of player in terms of both scoring and creating for others. On the two-line, Ohio State's Evan Turner and West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler have proven over and over that they are as "go-to" as can be, but their respective supporting casts aren't as strong as Collins'.

* Not that the Jayhawks won't have plenty of competition on their way to Indianapolis. Many analysts feel that the selection committee didn't do the tourney's top team any favors by giving them the toughest draw of any of the top seeds. In addition to Ohio State, which some felt heading into Sunday would have had a chance at a #1 seed if the Big11Ten final was played earlier (a notion somewhat dispelled by the fact that the committee gave Duke the third overall seed and make Syracuse -- which had been in line for a #1 for months -- the fourth overall), the Midwest also has the tournament's top #3 seed (Georgetown), top #6 (Tennessee), and a #5, Michigan State, that was on everyone's short list of national title contenders at the start of the year.

* I think Georgetown is the team most likely to trip up the Jayhawks. The Hoyas had kind of an up-and-down year, caused at least in part by playing a conference schedule which included four road games at teams ranked in the top ten at the time. The Big East was loaded this year, and so every team played some degree of a killer schedule, but it doesn't get any tougher than a slate that included two games against both Syracuse and Villanova, plus road trips to West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

Georgetown entered the Big East tournament losers of four of their last six, then played their way to a 3 seed by beating South Florida, Syracuse, and Marquette, before losing at the horn to West Virginia in the championship game. There's something of an unwritten rule among bracketologists to be wary of a team whose low seed is a result of a late stretch of strong play. I'm choosing to ignore that in this case, because I feel Georgetown's ascension was a result not of hot shooting and the like, but a real transformation. Early in the Hoyas' victory over Syracuse in the Big East quarters, ESPN's announcing crew noted that coach John Thompson III was riding his guys more than usual, and he kept it up throughout the tournament. His charges responded, most notably point guard Chris Wright, who took charge of the offense in a way that reminded me of Derrick Rose at Memphis two years ago.

My favorite Wright play of the four games actually came after he made a stupid one; giving a foul in the final minute of the championship game with his team tied with West Virginia (he must have thought the Hoyas were behind). After the Mountaineers hit two free throws, Wright simply took the ball, powered past the very powerful Joe Mazzulla, and banked in an off-balance shot. Butler would break Georgetown's hearts on the next trip, Wright's was a new-found confidence, one we hadn't consistently seen and one his team desperately needed.

Not that he's alone in Hoya grey. Far from it. The marvelously-skilled Greg Monroe is the perfect big man for JT3's Princeton-inspired offense, and is garnering a lot of attention from pro scouts despite the fact that said system doesn't exactly showcase big guys doing the kind of things NBA types like to see out of post players. There are question marks surrounding Austin Freeman -- he's been good, but not as good as he had been, since he was diagnosed with diabetes at the beginning of the month -- but he's the kind of player who can put on a virtuoso scoring performance any time he steps on the floor. Depth is a concern, but with Jason Clark (42.6 percent) and Hollis Thompson (42.4 percent) knocking down threes and Julian Vaughn doing the dirty work inside, Georgetown has a rotation that should be able to compete with anyone.

* I'll have my game-by-game predictions up before the tip day of, but one trap I'm pretty sure I won't be falling into is picking Georgia Tech to win anything more than their first round matchup with Oklahoma State. I haven't seen enough of the Cowboys to say whether they have enough size to counter the Yellow Jackets' bigs or the pressure defense to take advantage of GT's shaky ballhandling, but Georgia Tech looked about as unimpressive as a team can look on its way to the ACC championship game. (I actually tweeted the following during their quarterfinal win over Maryland: "If it's possible to hurt your NCAA chances in a win over the #19 team, Georgia Tech just did it.") I kinda think the committee agrees with me a little bit, awarding the Jackets only a ten seed despite their run to the championship game. While I was occupied with the A-10 and SEC finals today during Tech's late run against Duke, their inability to protect the ball against the Terrapins (25 turnovers) and their struggle to beat a very underwhelming NC State team doesn't have me very high on their chances to advance past the first weekend.

* This region has a number of teams that are more or less one-man bands. As mentioned, Turner carries Ohio State, but not as much as Greivis Vasquez carries Maryland. And while Houston beat UTEP in the Conference USA championship game despite getting only 13 points from Aubrey Coleman, the Cougars belong to Coleman, the nation's scoring leader. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch those two go at it in the first round.

Along those same lines, the Midwest bracket is something of an artistic masterpiece by the committee. There's something about it that is symmetrical, yet perfectly diverse about it. Thoroughbreds in the top and bottom half of the bracket (Kansas and Ohio State). The hot, trendy pick to make the Final Four (Georgetown). The struggling power conference team (Michigan State), the slighted power conference team (Tennessee), and the gritty, grind-it-out mid-major (Northern Iowa). Multiple teams dependent on a single individual player. Two teams (UNLV and San Diego State) from a relatively obscure, but strong this year, conference (the four-bid Mountain West. And two or three teams (New Mexico State, Houston, and maybe San Diego State) whose victories in their conference tournaments cost Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, and Illinois their bids (since Utah State, UTEP, and UNLV got at-large invitations that the Aggies, Cougars, and possibly the Aztecs wouldn't otherwise have gotten).

There's a lot going on here, and there are a lot of teams I simply cannot comment on because I haven't seen them play. For now, it suffices to say I've got Kansas coming out of the region and ultimately winning the whole thing -- the latter by default, really.